Evaluation of coastal perturbations: A new mathematical procedure to detect changes in the reference state of coastal systems

Ecological Indicators

Volumn 11, Issue 5, 2011, Pages 1290-1300

  Goberville, Eric ^a,b   Beaugrand, Grégory ^c   Sautour, Benoit ^b   Tréguer, Paul ^d  

^a Laboratoire d Océanologie et de Géosciences   (France)

^b UNIVERSITÉ BORDEAUX 1   (France)

^c CNRS   (France)

^d INSTITUT UNIVERSITAIRE EUROPÉEN DE LA MER   (France)

Author keywords

Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment; Climate change; Coastal systems; Monitoring; SOMLIT

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; MONITORING;

ANTHROPOGENIC PRESSURES; CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICALS; COASTAL MARINE SYSTEMS; COASTAL SYSTEMS; MATHEMATICAL PROCEDURES; NUTRIENT ENRICHMENTS; PERMUTATION PROCEDURES; SOMLIT;

NUTRIENTS;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; BIOSPHERE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL DISTURBANCE; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; NUMERICAL MODEL; NUTRIENT ENRICHMENT; PERTURBATION; PHYSICOCHEMICAL PROPERTY; SYNERGISM;

EID: 79955876542     PISSN: 1470160X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2011.02.002     Document Type: Article

References (84)

1. R.B. Alley, J. Marotzke, W.D. Nordhaus, J.T. Overpeck, D.M. Peteet, R.A. Pielke, R.T. Pierrehumbert, P.B. Rhines, T.F. Stocker, L.D. Talley, and J.M. Wallace Abrupt climate change Science 299 2003 2005 2010 doi: 10.1126/science.1081056 (Pubitemid 36383717)
2. D.M. Anderson, P.M. Glibert, and J.M. Burkholder Harmful algal blooms and eutrophication: nutrient sources, composition, and consequences Estuaries Coasts 25 2002 704 726 doi: 10.1007/BF02804901 (Pubitemid 35211658)
3. J.I. Antonov, R.A. Locarnini, T.P. Boyer, A.V. Mishonov, H.E. Garcia, and S. t;In >S Levitus In World Ocean Atlas 2005, vol. 2: Salinity 2006 NOAA Atlas NESDIS 62, US Government Printing Office Washington, DC 182 pp
4. M.J. Attrill, and M. Power Climatic influence on a marine fish assemblage Nature 471 2002 275 278 (Pubitemid 34534707)
5. P. Aurousseau Les flux d'azote et de phosphore provenant des bassins versants de la rade de Brest Comparaison avec la Bretagne. Océanis 27 2001 137 161 (Pubitemid 38122848)
6. N. Ban, and J. Alder How wild is the ocean? Assessing the intensity of anthropogenic marine activities in British Columbia, Canada Aquat. Conserv.: Mar. Freshwat. Ecosyst. 18 2008 55 85 doi: 10.1002/aqc.816 (Pubitemid 351251470)
7. G. Beaugrand, M. Edwards, K. Brander, C. Luczak, and F. Ibanez Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic Ecol. Lett. 11 2008 1157 1168 doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01218.x
8. G. Beaugrand, and P. Helaouët Simple procedures to assess and compare the ecological niche of species Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 363 2008 29 37 doi: 10.3354/meps07402
9. Beaugrand, G., Lenoir, S., Ibanez, F., Manté, C., 2011. A new model to assess the probability of occurrence of a species based on presence-only data. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., doi:10.3354/meps08939, in press.
10. G. Billen, and J. Garnier River basin nutrient delivery to the coastal sea: assessing its potential to sustain new production of non-siliceous algae Mar. Chem. 106 2007 148 160 doi: 10.1016/j.marchem.2006.12.017 (Pubitemid 47211585)
11. G. Billen, C. Lancelot, and M. Meybeck N, P, and Si retention along the aquatic continuum from land to ocean R.F.C. Mantoura, J.-M. Martin, R. Wollast, Ocean Margin Processes in Global Change 1991 John Wiley and Sons 19 44
12. Binet, D., 1997. Menace anthropique et évolution climatique - Nécessité d'une stratégie pour évaluer le changement dans les écosystmes. In: Dauvin, J.C. (Ed.), Les biocénoses marines et littorales franaises des côtes Atlantique, Manche et Mer du Nord, synthse, menaces et perspectives, pp. 267-286. Laboratoire de Biologie des Invertébrés Marins et Malacogie - Service du Patrimoine naturel/IEGB/MNHN, Paris. 376 pp.
13. A. Borja, and D.M. Dauer Assessing the environmental quality status in estuarine and coastal systems: comparing methodologies and indices Ecol. Indic. 8 2008 331 337 doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2007.05.004 (Pubitemid 351308119)
14. G.E.P. Box, and G.W. Jenkins Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control 1976 Holden-Day San Francisco
15. E. Breton, V. Rousseau, J. Parent, J. Ozer, and C. Lancelot Hydroclimatic modulation of diatom/Phaeocystis blooms in nutrient-enriched Belgian coastal waters (North Sea) Limnol. Oceanogr. 51 2006 1401 1409 (Pubitemid 43845294)
16. D.B. Chelton Commentary: short-term climatic variability in the northeast Pacific Ocean W. Pearcy, The influence of Ocean Conditions on the Production of Salmonids in the North Pacific 1984 Oregon State University Press Corvallis 87 99
17. D.B. Chelton, P.A. Bernal, and J.A. McGowan Large-scale interannual physical and biological interaction in the California Current J. Mar. Res. 40 1982 1095 1125
18. N.L. Christensen, A.M. Bartuska, J.H. Brown, S. Carpenter, C. D'Antonio, R. Francis, J.F. Franklin, J.A. MacMahon, R.F. Noss, and D.J. Parsons The report of the Ecological Society of America committee on the scientific basis for ecosystem management Ecol. Appl. 6 1996 665 691
19. J.E. Cloern Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 210 2001 223 253 (Pubitemid 32164184)
20. Crouzet, P., Nixon, S., Laffon, L., Bogestrand, J., Lallana, C., Izzo, G., Bak, J., 1999. Nutrients in European ecosystems. Environmental Assessment Report 4. European Environmental Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark, 123 pp.
21. S.P. Davies, and S.K. Jackson The biological condition gradient: a descriptive model for interpreting change in aquatic ecosystems Ecol. Appl. 16 2006 1251 1266 (Pubitemid 44223205)
22. R.J. Diaz Overview of hypoxia around the world J. Environ. Qual. 30 2001 275 281 (Pubitemid 32424047)
23. A.P. Dobson, A.D. Bradshaw, and A.J.M. Baker Hopes for the future: restoration ecology and conservation biology Science 277 1997 515 522 (Pubitemid 27368990)
24. S.D. Donner, M.T. Coe, J.D. Lenters, T.E. Twine, and J.A. Foley Modeling the impact of hydrological changes on nitrate transport in the Mississippi River Basin from 1955 to 1994 Global Biogeochem. Cycles 16 2002 1043 doi: 10.1029/2001GB001396
25. S.D. Donner, and C.J. Kucharik Evaluating the impacts of land management and climate variability on crop production and nitrate export across the Upper Mississippi Basin Global Biogeochem. Cycles 17 2003 1085 doi: 10.1029/2001GB001808
26. Dussauze, M., Ménesguen, A., 2008. Simulation de l'effet sur l'eutrophisation côtire bretonne de 3 scénarios de réduction des teneurs en nitrate et phosphate de chaque bassin versant breton et de la Loire. Ifremer, 160 pp.
27. F. Dziock, K. Henle, F. Foeckler, K. Follner, and M. Sholz Biological indicator systems in Floodplains - a review Int. Rev. Hydrobiol. 91 2006 271 291 (Pubitemid 44328166)
28. M. Edwards, A.W.G. John, D.G. Johns, and P.C. Reid Case history and persistence of the non-indigenous diatom Coscinodiscus wailesii in the north-east Atlantic J. Mar. Biol. Assoc. UK. 81 2001 207 211 (Pubitemid 32682665)
29. J. Font, J. Salat, and J. Tintoré Permanent features of the circulation in the Catalan Sea Oceanolog. Acta 9 1988 51 57
30. K.T. Frank, B. Petrie, J.S. Choi, and W.C. Leggett Trophic cascades in a formerly cod-dominated ecosystem Science 308 2005 1621 1623 (doi: 10.1126/science.1113075) (Pubitemid 40807510)
31. H.E. Garcia, R.A. Locarnini, T.P. Boyer, and J.I. Antonov S. Levitus, In World Ocean Atlas 2005, vol. 3: Dissolved Oxygen, Apparent Oxygen Utilization, and Oxygen Saturation 2006 NOAA Atlas NESDIS 63, US Government Printing Office Washington, DC 342 pp
32. H.E. Garcia, R.A. Locarnini, T.P. Boyer, and J.I. Antonov S. Levitus, In World Ocean Atlas 2005 Volume 4: Nutrients (Phosphate, Nitrate, Silicate) 2006 NOAA Atlas NESDIS 64, US Government Printing Office Washington, DC 396 pp
33. M. Ghil Natural climate variability T. Munn, J. Perry, Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change vol. 1 2002 John Wley & Sons New-York 544 549
34. E. Goberville, G. Beaugrand, B. Sautour, P. Tréguer SOMLIT Team Climate-driven changes in coastal marine systems of Western Europe Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 408 2010 129 147 doi: 10.3354/meps08564
35. K. Guizien, F. Charles, F. Lantoine, and J. Naudin Nearshore dynamics of nutrients and chlorophyll during Mediterranean-type flash-floods Aquat. Living Resour. 20 2007 3 14 (Pubitemid 47124206)
36. B.S. Halpern, K.A. Selkoe, F. Micheli, and C.V. Kappel Evaluating and ranking the vulnerability of global marine ecosystems to anthropogenic threats Conserv. Biol. 21 2007 1301 1315 doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00752.x (Pubitemid 47460193)
37. B.S. Halpern, S. Walbridge, K.A. Selkoe, C.V. Kappel, F. Micheli, C. D'Agrosa, J.F. Bruno, K.S. Casey, C. Ebert, H.E. Fox, R. Fujita, D. Heinemann, H.S. Lenihan, E.M.P. Madin, M.T. Perry, E.R. Selig, M. Spalding, R. Steneck, and R. Watson A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems Science 319 2008 948 952 doi: 10.1126/science.1149345 (Pubitemid 351263764)
38. S.R. Hare, and N.J. Mantua Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989 Prog. Oceanogr. 47 2000 103 145
39. C.D.G. Harley, A.R. Hughes, K.M. Hultgren, B.G. Miner, C.J.B. Sorte, C.S. Thornber, L.F. Rodriguez, L. Tomanek, and S.L. Williams The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems Ecol. Lett. 9 2006 228 241 doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00871.x
40. R.M. Hughes Defining acceptable biological status by comparing with reference conditions W. Davis, T. Simon, Biological Assessment and Criteria: Tools for Water Resource Planning and Decision Making 1995 CRC Press Lewis, Boca Raton, FL, USA 31 47
41. T.G. Huntington Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: review and synthesis J. Hydrol. 319 2006 83 95 doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07. 003 (Pubitemid 43204331)
42. F. Ibañez Immediate detection of heterogeneities in continuous multivariate, oceanographic recordings. Application to time series analysis of changes in the bay of Villefranche sur Mer Limnol. Oceanogr. 26 1981 336 349
43. D. Justic, N.N. Rabalais, and R.E. Turner Stoichiometric nutrient balance and origin of coastal eutrophication Mar. Pollut. Bull. 30 1995 41 46
44. Kaufmann, M.R., 1998. Forest reference conditions for ecosystem management in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico. Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
45. Kaufmann, M.R., Graham, R.T., Boyce, D.A., Moir, W.H., Perry, L., Reynolds, R.T., Bassett, R.L., Mehlhop, P., Edminster, C.B., Block, W.M., 1994. An ecological basis for ecosystem management. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report RM-GTR-246, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
46. Kremer, H.H., Le Tissier, M.D.A., Burbridge, P.R., Talaue-McManus, L., Rabalais, N.N., Parslow, J., Crossland, C.J., Young, W., 2004. Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone: Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Report 51/International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change Report 18. Stockholm: IGBP Secretariat. 60 pp.
47. D. Labat, Y. Godderis, J.L. Probst, and J.L. Guyot Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming Adv. Water Res. 27 2004 631 642 doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.02.020 (Pubitemid 38658968)
48. Le Tissier, M.D.A., Buddemeier, R., Parslow, J., Swaney, D.P., Crossland, C.J., Smith, S.V., Whyte, H.A.Y., Dennison, W.C., Hills, J.M., Kremer, H.H., 2006. The role of the coastal ocean in the disturbed and undisturbed nutrient and carbon cycles - a management perspective. LOICZ, Geesthacht, Germany.
49. O. Le Pape, Y. Del Amo, A. Ménesguen, A. Aminot, B. Quéguiner, and P. Tréguer Resistance of a coastal ecosystem to increasing eutrophic conditions: the Bay of Brest (France), a semi-enclosed zone of Western Europe Cont. Shelf Res. 16 1996 1885 1907
50. D. Lefvre, H.J. Minas, M. Minas, C. Robinson, P.J. Williams, B. Le, and E.M.S. Woodward Review of gross community production, primary production, net community production and dark community respiration in the Gulf of Lions Deep Sea Res. Part II 44 1997 801 819
51. L. Legendre, and P. Legendre Numerical Ecology second ed. English 1998 Elsevier Amsterdam 853 pp
52. R.A. Locarnini, A.V. Mishonov, J.I. Antonov, T.P. Boyer, and H.E. Garcia S. Levitus, In World Ocean Atlas 2005, vol. 1: Temperature 2006 NOAA Atlas NESDIS 61, US Government Printing Office Washington, DC 182 pp
53. W. Ludwig, E. Dumont, M. Meybeck, and S. Heusser River discharges of water and nutrients to the Mediterranean and Black Sea: major drivers for ecosystem changes during past and future decades? Prog. Oceanogr. 80 2009 199 217 doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2009.02.001
54. P.C. Mahalanobis On the generalized distance in statistics Proceedings National Institute of Sciences of India 2 1936 49 55
55. A. Ménesguen, and P. Cugier A new numerical technique for tracking chemical species in a multisource, coastal ecosystem applied to nitrogen causing Ulva blooms in the Bay of Brest (France) Limnol. Oceanogr. 51 2006 591 601 (Pubitemid 43259743)
56. P.W. Mielke, K.J. Berry, and G.W. Brier Application of multi-response permutation procedures for examining seasonal changes in monthly mean sea-level pressure patterns Mon. Weather Rev. 109 1981 120 126
57. D.C. Montgomery Introduction to Statistical Quality Control 1991 John Wiley and Sons, Inc. New York
58. M.M. Moore, W.W. Covington, and P.Z. Fulé Reference conditions and ecological restoration: a southwestern ponderosa pine perspective Ecol. Appl. 9 1999 1266 1277 (Pubitemid 29536902)
59. A. Mysterud, N.C. Stenseth, N.G. Yoccoz, R. Langvatn, and G. Steinhelm Nonlinear effects of large-scale climatic variability on wild and domestic herbivores Nature 410 2001 1096 1099 (Pubitemid 32391040)
60. S. Nixon Coastal marine eutrophication: a definition, social causes, and future concerns Ophelia 41 1995 199 219
61. E.A. Norse Global Marine Biological Diversity: A Strategy for Building Conservation into Decision Making 1993 Island Press Washington, DC
62. North Sea Task Force, 1993. North Sea quality status report. Oslo and Paris Commissions, London. Olsen and Olsen, Fredensborg.
63. M. Omori, S. Van Der Spoel, and C.P. Norman Impact of human activities on pelagic biogeography Prog. Oceanogr. 34 1994 211 219 (Pubitemid 291134)
64. Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J., Hanson, C.E., 2007. Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
65. D. Pauly Ecosystem impacts of the world's marine fisheries Global Change NewsLetter 55 2003 21 23
66. D. Pauly, V. Christensen, J. Dalsgaard, R. Froese, and T.J. Torres Fishing down marine food webs Science 279 1998 860 863 doi: 10.1126/science.279. 5352.860 (Pubitemid 28106279)
67. H.M. Pereira, and D.H. Cooper Towards the global monitoring of biodiversity change Trends Ecol. Evol. 21 2006 123 129 doi:10.1016/j.tree.2005. 10.015 (Pubitemid 43327285)
68. O. Ragueneau, B. Quéguiner, and P. Tréguer Contrast in biological responses to tidally-induced vertical mixing for two macrotidal ecosystems of Western Europe Estuarine Coastal Shelf Sci. 42 1996 645 665
69. A.C. Redfield On the proportions of organic derivatives in sea water and their relation to the composition of plankton R.J. Daniel, James Johnstone Memorial Volume 1934 University Press of Liverpool Liverpool pp. 177-192
70. P.C. Reid, M. Borges, and E. Svenden A regime shift in the North Sea circa 1988 linked to changes in the North Sea horse mackerel fishery Fish. Res. 50 2001 163 171 (Pubitemid 32122013)
71. P.C. Reid, J.M. Colebrook, J.B.L. Matthews, J. Aiken, R. Barnard, S.D. Batten, G. Beaugrand, C. Buckland, M. Edwards, J. Finlayson, L. Gregory, N. Halliday, A.W.G. John, D. Johns, A.D. Johnson, T. Jonas, J.A. Lindley, J. Nyman, P. Pritchard, A.J. Richardson, R.E. Saxby, J. Sidey, M.A. Smith, D.P. Stevens, P. Tranter, A. Walne, M. Wootton, C.O.M. Wotton, and J.C. Wright The Continuous Plankton Recorder: concepts and history, from plankton indicator to undulating recorders Prog. Oceanogr. 58 2003 117 173 doi: 10.1016/j.pocean.2003.08.002
72. A.J. Richardson, and E.S. Poloczanska Under-resourced, under threat Science 320 2008 1294 1295 doi: 10.1126/science.1156129
73. K. Richardson Harmful or exceptional phytoplankton blooms in the marine ecosystem J.H.S. Blaxter, A.J. Southward, Advances in Marine Biology 1997 Academic Press pp. 301-385
74. D. Scavia, J.C. Field, D.F. Boesch, R.W. Buddemeier, V. Burkett, D.R. Cayan, M. Fogarty, M. Harwell, R.W. Howarth, C. Mason, D.J. Reed, T.C. Royer, A.H. Sallenger, and J.G. Titus Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems Estuaries 25 2002 149 164 (Pubitemid 34544094)
75. M. Selman, S. Greenhalgh, R. Diaz, and Z. Sugg Eutrophication and hypoxia in coastal areas: a global assessment of the state of knowledge Water Quality: Eutrophication and Hypoxia 1 2008
76. K. Sherman, and A.M. Duda An ecosystem approach to global assessment and management of coastal waters Mar. Ecol. Progr. Ser. 190 1999 271 287 (Pubitemid 30028223)
77. A.J. Southward The importance of long time-series in understanding the variability of natural systems Helgol. Mar. Res. 49 1995 329 333
78. Swanson, F.J., Jones, J.A., Wallin, D.O., Cissel, J.H., 1994. Natural variability-implications for ecosystem management. In: Jensen, M.E., Bourgeron, P.S. (Eds.), Ecosystem Management: Principles and Applications, Vol. II. Eastside Forest Ecosystem Health Assessment. U.S. Forest Service, General Technical Report PNW-GTR-318, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon, USA, pp. 80-94.
79. R.S. Steneck Human influences on coastal ecosystems: does overfishing create trophic cascades? Trends Ecol. Evol. 13 1998 429 430 (Pubitemid 28487309)
80. J.W. Tukey Exploratory Data Analysis. Addison-Wesley Series in Behavioral Science: Quantitative Methods 1977 Reading Massachusetts
81. I. Valiela Marine Ecological Processes second ed. 1995 Springer-Verlag New York, USA 546 pp
82. Vander Schaaf, D., Wilhere, G., Ferdaña, Z., Popper, K., Schindel, M., Skidmore, P., Rolph, D., Iachetti, P., Kittel, G., Crawford, R., Pickering, D., Christy, J., 2006. A conservation assessment of the Pacific Northwest coast ecoregion: the nature conservancy of Canada, Victoria, BC, and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Olympia, WA, 2006.
83. J.E. Vermaat, A. McQuatters-Gollop, M.A. Eleveld, and A.J. Gilbert Past, present and future nutrient loads of the North Sea: causes and consequences Estuarine Coastal Shelf Sci. 80 2008 53 59 doi: 10.1016/j.ecss.2008.07.005
84. I.S. Zonneveld Principles of bio-indication Environ. Monit. Assess. 3 1983 207 217 (Pubitemid 14192624)