HIV in hiding: Methods and data requirements for the estimation of the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV

AIDS

Volumn 25, Issue 8, 2011, Pages 1017-1023

  Lodwick, Rebecca ^a,l   Alioum, Ahmadou ^b   Archibald, Chris ^c   Birrell, Paul ^d   Commenges, Daniel ^b   Costagliola, Dominique ^b   De Angeli, Daniela ^d   Donoghoe, Martin ^e   Garnett, Geoff ^f   Ghys, Peter ^g   Law, Matthew ^h   Lundgren, Jens ⁱ   Ndawinz, Jacques ^b   Presanis, Anne ^d   Sabin, Caroline ^a   Salminen, Mika ^j   Sommen, Cecile ^b   Stanecki, Karen ^g   Stover, John ^k   Supervie, Virginie ^b   Sweeting, Michael ^d   Van De Laar, Marita ^j   Van Sighem, Ard ^f   Wand, Handan ^h   Wilson, David ^h   Yan, Ping ^c   Phillips, Andrew ^a   more..

^a UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^b INSERM   (France)

^c PUBLIC HEALTH AGENCY OF CANADA   (Canada)

^d MRC BIOSTATISTICS UNIT   (United Kingdom)

^e WHO REGIONAL OFFICE FOR EUROPE   (Denmark)

^f IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^g UNAIDS   (Switzerland)

^h UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

^j EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DISEASE PREVENTION AND CONTROL ECDC   (Sweden)

^k AVENIR HEALTH   (United States)

^l ROYAL FREE AND UNIVERSITY COLLEGE MEDICAL SCHOOL   (United Kingdom)

more..

Author keywords

HIV prevalence; HIV surveillance data; undiagnosed HIV

Indexed keywords

ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME; CD4 LYMPHOCYTE COUNT; DEATH; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; EUROPE; HEALTH SURVEY; HUMAN; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS; INFECTION RISK; NONHUMAN; PREVALENCE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE; REVIEW; VIRUS DIAGNOSIS; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

CD4 LYMPHOCYTE COUNT; CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES; DATA COLLECTION; EUROPE; FEMALE; HIV INFECTIONS; HUMANS; MALE; PREVALENCE; SENTINEL SURVEILLANCE;

EID: 79955636226     PISSN: 02699370     EISSN: 14735571     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283467087     Document Type: Review

References (40)

1. UNAIDS. Global report: UNAIDS report on the global AIDS epidemic 2010. Geneva: UNAIDS; 2010.
2. Hamers FF, Phillips AN. Diagnosed and undiagnosed HIVinfected populations in Europe. HIV Med 2008; 9:6-12. (Pubitemid 351819089)
3. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. HIV prevention in Europe: action, needs and challenges; 2-3 October 2006; Stockholm, Sweden.
4. Marks G, Crepaz N, Janssen RS. Estimating sexual transmission of HIV from persons aware and unaware that they are infected with the virus in the USA. AIDS 2006; 20:1447-1450. (Pubitemid 43948252)
5. European Late Presenter Consensus Working Group. Late presentation of HIV infection: a consensus definition. HIV Med 2011; 12:61-64.
6. Antinori A, Johnson M, Moreno S, Yazdanpanah Y, Rockstroh JK. Late presentation for HIV treatment in Europe. Report of a European Working Group on late presentation with HIV infection: recommendations and regional variation. Antiviral Ther 2010; 15:31-35.
7. SabinCA, Schwenk A, JohnsonMA,Gazzard B, Fisher M,Walsh J, et al. Late diagnosis in the HAART era: proposed common definitions and associations with mortality. AIDS 2010; 24:723-727.
8. Lanoy E, Mary-Krause M, Tattevin P, Perbost I, Poizot-Martin I, Dupont C, et al. Frequency, determinants and consequences of delayed access to care for HIV infection in France. Antiviral Ther 2007; 12:89-96. (Pubitemid 46340430)
9. Chadborn TR, Baster K, Delpech VC, Sabin CA, Sinka K, Rice BD, et al. No time to wait: how many HIV-infected homosexual men are diagnosed late and consequently die? England and Wales, 1993-2002. AIDS 2005; 19:513-520. (Pubitemid 40515855)
10. Fisher M. Late diagnosis of HIV infection: major consequences and missed opportunities. Curr Opin Infect Dis 2008; 21:1-3.
11. UNAIDS/WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance. Guidelinesonestimatingthesizeofpopulationsmost at risk to HIV. World Health Organization and UNAIDS; 2010.
12. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control /WHO Regional Office for Europe. HIV/AIDS surveillance in Europe .2008. Stockholm: ECDC; 2009.
13. Kaldor JM, Delpech V, Guy RJ. AIDS case reporting: do we still need it? Lancet 2009; 373:181-183.
14. Giesecke J, Johnson A, Hawkins A, Noone A, Nicoll A, Wadsworth J, et al. An estimate of the prevalence of humanimmunodeficiency- virus infection in England and Wales by using a direct method. J Roy Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc 1994; 157:89-103.
15. Petruckevitch A, Nicoll A, Johnson AM, Bennett D. Direct estimates of prevalent HIV infection in adults in England and Wales for 1991 and 1993: an improved method. Genitourinary Med 1997; 73:348-354. (Pubitemid 27479583)
16. McGarrigle CA, Cliffe S, Copas AJ, Mercer CH, DeAngelis D, Fenton KA, et al. Estimating adult HIV prevalence in the UK in 2003: the direct method of estimation. Sex Transm Infect 2006; 82:III78-III86. (Pubitemid 43901616)
17. Lyerla R, Gouws E, Garcia-Calleja JM, Zaniewski E. The 2005 Workbook: an improved tool for estimating HIV prevalence in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics. Sex Transm Infect 2006; 82 (Suppl III):iii41-iii44. (Pubitemid 43901610)
18. Brown T, Bao L, Raftery AE, Salomon JA, Baggaley RF, Stover J, et al. Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS estimation and projection package 2009. Sex Transm Infect 2010; 86:ii3-ii10.
19. Stover J, Johnson P, Zaba B, Zwahlen M, Dabis F, Ekpini RE. The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating mortality, ART needs, PMTCT impact and uncertainty bounds. Sex Transm Infect 2010; 84 (Suppl I):i24-i30.
20. UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates Modelling and Projections. Estimating the size of high risk groups and HIV prevalence in high risk groups in concentrated epidemics. Meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections; 9-10 December 2008; Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
21. Goubar A, Ades AE, De Angelis D, McGarrigle CA, Mercer CH, Tookey PA, et al. Estimates of human immunodeficiency virus prevalence and proportion diagnosed based on Bayesian multiparameter synthesis of surveillance data. J Roy Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc 2008; 171:541-567.
22. Presanis AM, De Angelis D, Spiegelhalter DJ, Seaman S, Goubar A, Ades AE. Conflicting evidence in a Bayesian synthesis of surveillance data to estimate human immunodeficiency virus prevalence. J Roy Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc 2008; 171:915-937.
23. Presanis AM, Gill ON, Chadborn TR, Hill C, Hope V, Logan L, et al. Insights into the rise in HIV infections, 2001 to 2008: a Bayesian synthesis of prevalence evidence. AIDS 2010; 24:2849-2858.
24. Brookmeyer R, Gail MH. Minimum size of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in the United States. Lancet 1986; 2:1320-1322. (Pubitemid 17177873)
25. Brookmeyer R, Gail MH. A method for obtaining short-term projections and lower bounds on the size of the AIDS epidemic. J Am Stat Assoc 1988; 83:301-308.
26. Cui J, Becker NG. Estimating HIV incidence using dates of both HIV and AIDS diagnoses. Stat Med 2000; 19:1165-1177. (Pubitemid 30265929)
27. Becker NG, Lewis JJC, Li Z, McDonald A. Age-specific backprojection of HIV diagnosis data. Stat Med 2003; 22:2177-2190. (Pubitemid 36818043)
28. Sweeting MJ, De Angelis D, Aalen OO. Bayesian back-calculation using a multistate model with application to HIV. Stat Med 2005; 24:3991-4007. (Pubitemid 43115743)
29. Hall HI, Song RG, Rhodes P, Prejean J, An Q, Lee LM, et al. Estimation of HIV incidence in the United States. JAMA 2008; 300:520-529.
30. Wand H, Yan P,Wilson D, McDonald A, MiddletonM, Kaldor J, et al. Increasing HIV transmission throughmale homosexual and heterosexual contact in Australia: results from an extended back-projection approach. HIV Med 2010; 11:395-403.
31. Ndawinz JDA, Costagliola D, Supervie V. Recent increase in the incidence of HIV infection in France. 17th Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections; 16-19 February 2010; San Francisco, CAUSA.
32. Sommen C, Alioum A, Commenges D. A multistate approach for estimating the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus by using HIV and AIDS French surveillance data. Stat Med 2009; 28:1554-1568.
33. Campsmith ML, Rhodes P, Hall HI, Green T. HIV Prevalence Estimates-United States, 2006 [reprinted from MMWR 2008; 57:1073-1076]. JAMA 2009; 301:27-29.
34. Campsmith ML, Rhodes PH, Hall HI, Green TA. Undiagnosed HIV prevalence among adults and adolescents in the United States at the end of 2006. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2010; 53:619-624.
35. Yang Q, Boulos D, Yan P, Zhang F, Remis RS, Schanzer D, et al. Estimates of the number of prevalent and incident human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections in Canada, 2008. Can J Public Health 2010; 101:486-490.
36. Lodwick RK, Sabin CA, Phillips AN. Estimation of the number of undiagnosed HIV-positive people within a region based on surveillance of simultaneous HIV/AIDS diagnoses. 12th European AIDS Conference; 11-14 November 2009; Cologne, Germany.
37. Lodwick RK, Sabin CA, Phillips AN. A method to estimate the number of people in a country or region with HIV who are undiagnosed and in need of ART. 10th International Congress on Drug Therapy in HIV Infection; 7-11 November 2010; Glasgow, UK.
38. Bezemer D, de Wolf F, Boerlijst MC, Van Sighem A, Hollingsworth TD, Prins M, et al. A resurgent HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of potent antiretroviral therapy. AIDS 2008; 22:1071-1077. (Pubitemid 351769746)
39. Wilson D, Hoare A, Regan D, Wand H, Law M. Mathematical models to investigate recent trends in HIV notifications among men who have sex with men in Australia; 2008. http://www. nchecr.unsw.edu.au.
40. Van Veen M, Presanis AM, Conti S, Xiridou M, Rinder Stengaard A, Donoghoe M, et al. National estimate of HIV prevalence in the Netherlands: comparison and applicability of different estimation tools. AIDS 2011; 25:229-237.