Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science

Volumn 11, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 1205-1216

  Gaslikova, L ^a,c   Schwerzmann, A ^b   Raible, C C ^a   Stocker, T F ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BERN   (Switzerland)

^b SWISS REINSURANCE COMPANY   (Switzerland)

^c INSTITUTE OF MATERIALS RESEARCH   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE EFFECT; COASTAL PROTECTION; FLOOD; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT; STORM SURGE;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; DENMARK; GERMANY; NORTH SEA;

EID: 79955590831     PISSN: 15618633     EISSN: 16849981     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-11-1205-2011     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Alexandersson, H., Schmith, T., Iden, K., and Tuomenvirta, H.: Longterm variations of the storm climate overNWEurope, Glob. Atmos. Ocean. Syst., 6, 97-120, 1998. (Pubitemid 29353310)
2. Alexandersson, H., Tuomenvirta, H., Schmith, T., and Iden, K.: Trends of stroms in NW Europe derived form an updated pressure data set, Clim. Res., 14, 71-73, 2000. (Pubitemid 30400419)
3. Aspelien, T. andWeisse, R.: Assimilation of Sea level Observations for multi-decadal regional ocean model simulations for the North Sea, Tech. Rep. 2, GKSS Report, 2005.
4. Beniston, M., Stephenson, D. B., Christensen, O. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylhä, K., Koffi, B., Palutikof, J., Schöll, R., Semmler, T., and Woth, K.: Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections, Clim. Change, 81, 71-95, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z, 2007. (Pubitemid 46722472)
5. Bindoff, N., Willebrand, J., Artale, V., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J., Gulev, S., Hanawa, K., Qúeŕe, C. L., Levitus, S., Nojiri, Y., Shum, C., Talley, L. D., and Unnikrishnan, A.: Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
6. Casulli, V. and Cattani, E.: Stability, accuracy and efficiency of a semi-implicit method for three dimensional shallow water flow, Computers Math. Applic., 27, 99-112, 1994.
7. Christensen, J., Carter, T., and Giorgi, F.: PRUDENCE employs new methods to assess European climate change, EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 83, p. 147, 2002.
8. Dawson, R. and Hall, J.: Adaptive importance sampling for risk analysis of complex infrastructure systems, Proc. R. Soc. A, 462, 3343-3362, 2006. (Pubitemid 44671028)
9. Debernard, J. and Røed, L.: Future wind, wave and storm surge climate in the Northern Seas: a revisit, Tellus Ser. A, 60, 427-438, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00312.x, 2008.
10. Deltaworks: http://www.deltawerken.com (last access: November 2010), 2010.
11. Döscher, R., Wilĺen, U., Jones, C., Rutgersson, A., Meier, H., Hansson, U., and Graham, L.: The development of the coupled regional ocean-atmosphere model RCAO, Boreal Env. Res., 7, 183-192, 2002. (Pubitemid 135707180)
12. Eurostat. Unit E1, Farms, Agro-environment and rural development: Statistics in focus, Agriculture and fisheries, Tech. rep., Eurostat. European commission, 47, 1-12, 2009.
13. Feser, F., Weisse, R., and von Storch, H.: Multi-decadal atmospheric modeling for Europe yields multi-purpose data, EOS Transactions, 82, 305-310, 2001.
14. Flather, R., Smith, J., Richards, J., Bell, C., and Blackman, D.: Direct estimates of extreme surge elevation from a 40 year numerical model simulation and from observations, Global Atmos. Ocean Sys., 6, 165-176, 1998. (Pubitemid 29353312)
15. Floris project: Flood risks and safety in the Netherlands (Floris), Floris study - Full report, Tech. rep., Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, The Netherlands, 54-65, 2005.
16. Gönnert, G., Dube, S., Murty, T., and Siefert, W.: Global storm surges, Die Küste, 63, 375 pp., 2001.
17. Gumbel, E.: The statistics of extremes, Columbia University Press, New York, 510 pp., 1958.
18. Hall, J., Dawson, R., Sayers, P., Rosu, C., Chatterton, J., and Deakin, R.: A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, WM3, 235-247, 2003. (Pubitemid 37245391)
19. Hervouet, J. and Haren, L.: TELEMAC2D Version 3.0 Principle Note Rapport EDF HE-4394052B, Tech. rep., Electricit́e de France, D́epartement Laboratoire National de Hydraulique, Chatou CEDEX, 1996.
20. Jorissen, R., Litjens, J., and Lorenzo, A.: Flooding risk in coastal areas, Risks, safety levels and probabilistic techniques in five countries along the North Sea coast, Tech. rep., The Hague, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, 61 pp., 2000.
21. Kistler, R., Kalnay, E., Collins, W., Saha, S., White, G., Wollen, J., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki,W., Kanamitsu, M., Kousky, V., van den Dool, H., Jenne, R., and Fioriono, M.: The NCEP/NCAR 50- year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 247-267, 2001. (Pubitemid 33622659)
22. Loffredo, L., Schulz, D., and Wilkens, J.: Design parameters for coastal dikes, Case study: Meldorf on the German North Sea, Environ. Fluid. Mech., 7, 469-479, 2007. (Pubitemid 350201444)
23. Lowe, J. and Gregory, J.: The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 363, 1313-1328, doi:10.1098/rsta.2005.1570, 2005. (Pubitemid 41111296)
24. Lowe, J., Gregory, J., and Flather, R.: Changes in the occurrence of storm surges around the United Kingdom under a future climate scenario using a dynamic storm surge model driven by Hadley Centre climate models, Clim. Dyn., 18, 179-188, 2001. (Pubitemid 34034628)
25. Matulla, C., Schöner, W., Alexandersson, H., von Storchad, X. L., and Wang, H.: European storminess: Late nineteenth century to present, Clim. Dyn., 31, 125-130, doi:10.1007/s00382-007- 0333-y, 2008.
26. Nicholls, R.: Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: Changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios, Glob. Environ. Change, 14, 69-86, 2004. (Pubitemid 38215128)
27. Raible, C. C., Della-Marta, P., Schwierz, C., Wernli, H., and Blender, R.: Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones: A Comparison of Detection and Tracking Methods and Different Reanalyses, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 880-897, 2008. (Pubitemid 351753152)
28. Raible, C. C., Kleppek, S., Wueest, M., Kitoh, A., Murakami, H., Stocker, T. F., and Bresch, D. N.: Atlantic Hurricanes and Associated Insurance Loss Potentials in Future Climate Scenarios, Tellus A, submitted, 2011.
29. Rockel, B. and Woth, K.: Future changes in near surface wind speed extremes over Europe from an ensemble of RCM simulations, Clim. Change, 81, 267-280, doi:10.1007/s10584-006- 9227-y, 2007. (Pubitemid 46716684)
30. Roeckner, E., Bengtsson, L., Feichter, J., Lelieveld, J., and Rodhe, H.: Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulphur cycle, J. Clim., 12, 3004-3032, 1999. (Pubitemid 30047385)
31. Schwierz, C., Köllner-Heck, P., Zenklusen, E., Bresch, D., Vidale, P.-L., Wild, M., and Schär, C.: Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate, Clim. Change, 101, 485-514, doi:10.1007/s10584- 009-9712-1, 2010.
32. Swiss Re: Natural catastrophes and reinsurance, Tech. rep., Swiss Reinsurance Company Publications, Zürich, 47 pp., 2003.
33. Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G. C., and Pinto, J. G.: Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 96, 117-131, 2009.
34. Weisse, R. and Pluess, A.: Storm-related sea level variations along the North Sea coast as simulated by a high-resolution model 1958-2002, Ocean Dyn., 56, 16-25, 2006. (Pubitemid 43787084)
35. Weisse, R., von Storch, H., and Feser, F.: Northeast Atlantic and North Sea storminess as simulated by a regional climate model during 1958-2001 and comparison with observations, J. Climate, 18(3), 465-479, 2005. (Pubitemid 40328418)
36. Woth, K.: Projections of North Sea storm surge extremes in a warmer climate: How important are the RCM driving GCM and the chosen emission scenario?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, l22708, doi:10.1029/2005GL023762, 2005a. (Pubitemid 43092278)
37. Woth, K.: Regionalization of global climate change scenarios: An ensemble study of possible changes in the North Sea storm surge statistics, Ph.D. thesis, Fachbereich Geowissenschaften der Universit ät Hamburg, 2005b.
38. Woth, K., Weisse, R., and von Storch, H.: Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: An ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models, Ocean Dyn., 56, 3-15, 2006. (Pubitemid 43787083)