Quantification of model-form and predictive uncertainty for multi-physics simulation

Computers and Structures

Volumn 89, Issue 11-12, 2011, Pages 1206-1213

  Riley, Matthew E ^a   Grandhi, Ramana V ^a  

^a Wright State University   (United States)

Author keywords

Model form uncertainty; Multi physics simulation; Predictive uncertainty; Uncertainty quantification

Indexed keywords

AERO-ELASTIC SIMULATIONS; AERODYNAMIC PROPERTIES; DESIGN PROBLEMS; EXISTING METHOD; INPUT VARIABLES; MODEL SET; MODELING PROCESS; MODELING UNCERTAINTIES; MULTI-PHYSICS; MULTIPHYSICS SIMULATIONS; MULTIPLE MODELS; PARAMETRIC UNCERTAINTIES; PHYSICAL SCENARIO; PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY; UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION; UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATIONS;

DESIGN; MODELS;

COMPUTER SIMULATION;

EID: 79955578810     PISSN: 00457949     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.compstruc.2010.10.004     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (31)

1. NASTRAN user's manual, r3. Santa Ana, CA: MSC Software Corporation; 2005.
2. ASTROS user's reference manual, Version 20. Torrance, CA: Universal Analytics; 1997.
3. ZEUS user's manual. Scottsdale, AZ: ZONA Technology; 2009.
4. D.M. Schuster, P.S. Beran, and L.J. Huttsell Application of the ENS3DAE Euler/Navier-Stokes aeroelastic method AGARD 1998
5. E.L. Droguett, and A. Mosleh Bayesian methodology for model uncertainty using model performance data Risk Anal 28 5 2008 1457 1476
6. C. Guedes Soares Quantification of model uncertainty in structural reliability C. Guedes Soares, Probabilistic methods for structural design 1997 Kluwer Academic Publishers Netherlands
7. R. Zhang, and S. Mahadevan Model uncertainty and Bayesian updating in reliability-based inspection Struct Saf 22 2000 145 160 (Pubitemid 30411394)
8. M.E. Pate-Cornell Uncertainties in risk analysis: six levels of treatment Reliab Syst Saf 54 1996 95 111 (Pubitemid 126365914)
9. J. Hacking The emergence of probability 1975 University Press Cambridge, UK
10. H. Chernoff, and L.E. Moses Elementary decision theory 1959 Wiley New York
11. M. Kurdi, N. Lindsley, and P. Beran Uncertainty quantification of the Goland Wing's flutter boundary AIAA atmospheric flight mechanics conference and exhibit, Hilton Head, SC 2007 AIAA
12. Ueda T. Aeroelastic Analysis considering structural uncertainty. In: Proceedings of the sixth international seminar on "recent research and design progress in aeronautical engineering and its influence on education", Riga, Latvia; 2005. p. 3-7. (Pubitemid 40703606)
13. F. Tonon, H. Bae, R.V. Grandhi, and C. Pettit Using random set theory to calculate reliability bounds for a wing structure Struct Infrastruct Eng 2 2006 191 200
14. C.L. Petit, and R.V. Grandhi Optimization of a wing structure for gust response and aileron effectiveness reliability AIAA J Aircraft 40 2004 1185 1191
15. G.A. Barnard New methods of quality control J Royal Stat Soc Series A 1963 255 267
16. H.V. Roberts Probabilistic prediction J Am Stat Assoc 60 1965 50 62
17. E.E. Leamer Specification searches: ad hoc inference with no experimental data 1978 Wiley & Sons New York
18. W.R. Gilks, S. Richardson, and D.J. Spiegelhalter Markov Chain Monte Carlo in practice 1996 Chapman & Hall Bungay
19. A. Mosleh, and G. Apostolakis The assessment of probability distributions from expert opinions with an application to seismic fragility curves Risk Anal 6 4 1986 447 461 (Pubitemid 17227601)
20. E. Zio, and G. Apostolakis Two methods for the structural assessment of model uncertainty by experts in performance assessments of radioactive waste repositories Reliab Eng Syst Saf 54 2-3 1996 225 241 (Pubitemid 126365925)
21. J.M. Reinert, and G.E. Apostolakis Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision making Ann Nucl Energy 33 4 2006 354 369 (Pubitemid 43234300)
22. Riley ME, Grandhi RV, Kolonay R. Quantification of modeling uncertainty in aeroelastic design. In: 51st AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC structures, structural dynamics, and materials conference, Orlando, FL; 2010. AIAA.
23. C.L. Petit Uncertainty quantification in aeroelasticity: recent results and research challenges J Aircraft 41 5 2004 1217 1229
24. H.J. Pradlwarter, M.F. Pellissetti, C.A. Schenk, G.I. Schuller, A. Kreis, and S. Fransen Realistic and efficient reliability estimation for aerospace structures Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng 194 12-16 2005 597 617
25. Draper D. Model uncertainty in "stochastic" and "deterministic" systems. In: Proceedings of the 12th international workshop on statistical modeling, Biel/Bienne, Switzerland; 1997. p. 43-59.
26. Kreinovich V, Hajago JG, Tucker T, Beck J, Ginzburg LR, Ferson S. Propagating uncertainty through a quadratic response surface model. Sandia National Laboratory, Albuquerque, NM; 2008. SAND2008-5983.
27. Rausch RD, Batina JT, Yang HTY. Three dimensional time-marching aeroelastic analyses using an unstructured Grid-Euler method. AIAA; 1992.
28. Lee-Rausch EM, Batina JT. Wing flutter boundary predictions using unsteady Euler method. AIAA; 1993.
29. Lee-Rausch EM, Batina JT. Calculation of agard wing 445.6 flutter using Navier-Stokes aerodynamics. In: 11th AIAA applied aerodynamics conference (Monetery, California 1993).
30. F. Liu, J. Cai, Y. Zhu, H.M. Tsai, and A.S.F. Wong Calculation of wing flutter by a coupled Fluid-Structure method AIAA J Aircraft 38 2 2001 334 342 (Pubitemid 32435474)
31. ZAERO applications manual, Vol.1. Zona Tech, 2008, Version 8.3.