Mechanistic modelling of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic

Theoretical Ecology

Volumn 4, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 283-288

  He, DaiHai ^a   Dushoff, Jonathan ^a,b   Day, Troy ^c   Ma, Junling ^d   Earn, David J D ^a,b  

^a MCMASTER UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^b MCMASTER UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^c QUEEN S UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^d UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA   (Canada)

Author keywords

1918; Influenza; London, England; Mathematical modelling; Pandemic; POMP; Time series

Indexed keywords

INFLUENZA; MORTALITY; NUMERICAL MODEL; PUBLIC HEALTH; TIME SERIES;

ENGLAND; LONDON [ENGLAND]; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 79954959080     PISSN: 18741738     EISSN: 18741746     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s12080-011-0123-3     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Akaike H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Automat Contr 19: 716-723 doi: 10. 1109/TAC. 1974. 1100705.
2. Anderson D, Watson R (1980) On the spread of a disease with gamma distributed latent and infectious periods. Biometrika 67: 191-198.
3. Bootsma MC, Ferguson NM (2007) The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U. S. cities. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104: 7588-7593.
4. Bretó C, He D, Ionides EL King AA (2008) Time series analysis via mechanistic models. Ann Appl Stat 3: 319-348.
5. Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach, 2nd edn. Springer, New York.
6. Caley P, Philp DJ, McCracken K (2008) Quantifying social distancing arising from pandemic influenza. J R Soc Interface 5: 631-639.
7. Chowell G, Bettencourt LMA, Johnson N, Alonso WJ, Viboud C (2008) The 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales: spatial patterns in transmissibility and mortality impact. Proc R Soc B 275: 501-509.
8. Day T, André J, Park A (2006) The evolutionary emergence of pandemic influenza. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 273: 2945-2953.
9. de Boor C (1978) A practical guide to splines. Springer, New York.
10. Doucet A, de Freita N, Gordon NJ (2001) Sequential Monte Carlo methods in practice. Springer, New York.
11. Dushoff J, Plotkin J, Levin S, Earn DJD (2004) Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101: 16915-16916.
12. Dushoff J, Plotkin JB, Viboud C, Earn DJD, Simonsen L (2006) Mortality due to influenza in the United States-an annualized regression approach using multiple-cause mortality data. Am J Epidemiol 163: 181-187.
13. Earn DJD, Dushoff J, Levin SA (2002) Ecology and evolution of the flu. Trends Ecol Evol 17: 334-340.
14. Eggo RM, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM (2010) Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States. J R Soc Interface. doi: 10. 1098/rsif. 2010. 0216.
15. Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, Burke DS (2005) Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437: 209-214 doi: 10. 1038/nature04017.
16. Gillespie DT (1976) A general method for numerically simulating the stochastic time evolution of coupled chemical reactions. J Comput Phys 22: 403-434.
17. Hatchett RJ, Mecher CE, Lipsitch M (2007) Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104: 7582-7587.
18. He DH, Ionides EL, King AA (2009) Plug-and-play inference for disease dynamics: measles in large and small populations as a case study. J R Soc Interface. doi: 10. 1098/rsif. 2009. 0151.
19. Jordan EO (1927) Epidemic influenza: a survey. Chicago American Medical Association, Chicago.
20. King AA, Ionides EL, Bretó CM, Ellner S, Kendall B (2009) POMP: statistical inference for partially observed Markov processes (R package). Available at http://pomp. r-forge. r-rproject. org.
21. King AA, Ionides EL, Pascual M, Bouma MJ (2008) Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature 454: 877-879. doi: 10. 1038/nature07084.
22. Lipsitch M, Viboud C (2009) Influenza seasonality: lifting the fog. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106: 3645-3646.
23. Liu R, Wu J, Zhu H (2007) Media/psychological impact on multiple outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases. Comput Math Methods Med 8: 153-164.
24. Lloyd AL (2001) Realistic distributions of infectious periods in epidemic models: changing patterns of persistence and dynamics. Theor Popul Biol 60: 59-71.
25. Markel H, Lipman HB, Navarro JA, Sloan A, Michalsen JR, Stern AM, Cetron MS (2007) Nonpharmaceutical interventions implemented by U. S. cities during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic. JAMA 298: 644-654.
26. Miller MA, Viboud C, Balinska M, Simonsen L (2009) The signature features of influenza pandemics implications for policy. N Engl J Med 360: 2595-2598.
27. Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M (2004) Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 432: 904-906.
28. Mishra AC, Chadha MS, Choudhary ML, Potdar VA (2010) Pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 is associated with severe disease in India. PLoS ONE 5: e10540. doi: 10. 1371/journal. pone. 0010540.
29. Rios-Doria D, Chowell G (2009) Qualitative analysis of the level of cross-protection between epidemic waves of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic. J Theor Biol 261: 584-592.
30. Ross T, Zimmer S, Burke D, Crevar C, Carter D, Stark J, Giles B, Zimmerman R, Ostroff S, Lee B (2010) Seroprevalence following the second wave of pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza. PLoS Curr influenza, p RRN1148.
31. Serfling RE (1963) Methods for current statistical analysis of excess pneumonia-influenza deaths. Publ Health Rep 78: 494-506.
32. Shaman J, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Lipsitch M (2010) Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States. PLoS Biol 8: e1000316. doi: 10. 1371/journal. pbio. 1000316.
33. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (2006) 1918 influenza: the mother of all pandemics. Emerg Infect Dis 12: 15-22.