Modeling the variations in pediatric respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics

BMC Infectious Diseases

Volumn 11, Issue , 2011, Pages

  Leecaster, Molly ^a   Gesteland, Per ^a   Greene, Tom ^a   Walton, Nephi ^a   Gundlapalli, Adi ^a   Rolfs, Robert ^b   Byington, Carrie ^a   Samore, Matthew ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF UTAH SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

^b UTAH DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CHILD; CLINICAL EVALUATION; COMPARTMENT MODEL; CONTROLLED STUDY; DISEASE DURATION; EPIDEMIC; GROWTH CURVE; HOST SUSCEPTIBILITY; HUMAN; INFECTION RATE; LABORATORY TEST; NONHUMAN; PREDICTION; PRESCHOOL CHILD; RESPIRATORY SYNCYTIAL PNEUMOVIRUS; RESPIRATORY SYNCYTIAL VIRUS INFECTION; SCHOOL CHILD; SEASONAL VARIATION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; GENETICS; HOSPITAL; ISOLATION AND PURIFICATION; MORBIDITY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SEASON; UNITED STATES; VIROLOGY;

CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; EPIDEMICS; HOSPITALS, PEDIATRIC; HUMANS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MORBIDITY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RESPIRATORY SYNCYTIAL VIRUS INFECTIONS; RESPIRATORY SYNCYTIAL VIRUS, HUMAN; SEASONS; UTAH;

EID: 79954614310     PISSN: None     EISSN: 14712334     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-11-105     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Stensballe L, Devasundaram J, Simoes E. Respiratory syncytial virus epidemics: the ups and downs of a seasonal virus. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2003, 22(2 SUPPL):S21-32.
2. Forster J, Ihorst G, Rieger C, Stephan V, Frank H, Gurth H, Berner R, Rohwedder A, Werchau H, Schumacher M, Tsai T, Petersen G. Prospective population-based study of viral lower respiratory tract infections in children under 3 years of age (the PRIDE study). Eur J Pediatr 2004, 163(12):709-716. 10.1007/s00431-004-1523-9, 15372233.
3. Leader S, Kohlhase K. Recent trends in severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) among US infants, 1997 to 2000. J Pediatr 2003, 143(5 SUPPL):S127-132.
4. Paramore L, Ciuryla V, Ciesla G, Liu L. Economic impact of respiratory syncytial virus-related illness in the US: an analysis of national databases. Pharmacoeconomics 2004, 22(5):275-284. 10.2165/00019053-200422050-00001, 15061677.
5. Shay D, Holman R, Newman R, Liu L, Stout J, Anderson L. Bronchiolitis-associated hospitalizations among US children, 1980-1996. JAMA 1999, 282(15):1440-1446. 10.1001/jama.282.15.1440, 10535434.
6. Terletskaia-Ladwig E, Enders G, Schalasta G, Enders M. Defining the timing of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) outbreaks: an epidemiological study. BMC Infect Dis 2005, 5(1):20.. 10.1186/1471-2334-5-20, 1084247, 15801975.
7. Panozzo C, Fowlkes A, Anderson L. Variation in timing of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks: lessons from national surveillance. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2007, 26(11 SUPPL):S41-45.
8. Weber A, Weber M, Milligan P. Modeling epidemics caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Math Biosci 2001, 172(2):95-113. 10.1016/S0025-5564(01)00066-9, 11520501.
9. White L, Mandl J, Gomes M, Bodley-Tickell A, Cane P, Perez-Brena P, Aguilar J, Siqueira M, Portes S, Straliotto S, Waris M, Nokes D, Medley G. Understanding the transmission dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus using multiple time series and nested models. Mathematical Biosciences 2007, 209:222-239. 10.1016/j.mbs.2006.08.018, 17335858.
10. Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Cooper B, Robins J, Ma S, James L, Gopalakrishna G, Chew S, Tan C, Samore M, Fisman D, Murray M. Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science 2003, 300:1966-1970. 10.1126/science.1086616, 2760158, 12766207.
11. Lipsitch M, Bergstrom C. Invited commentary: real-time tracking of control measures for emerging infections. Am J Epidemiol 2004, 160(6):517-519. discussion 520, 10.1093/aje/kwh256, 15353410.
12. Wallinga J, Teunis P. Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures. Am J Epidemiol 2004, 160(6):509-516. 10.1093/aje/kwh255, 15353409.
13. U.S. Census Bureau Population Division-Counties. , http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO-EST2008-01.html
14. U.S. Census Bureau Population Division-States. , http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-ann-est.html
15. Koopman J. Modeling infection transmission. Annu Rev Public Health 2004, 25:303-326. 10.1146/annurev.publhealth.25.102802.124353, 15015922.
16. Crowcroft N, Zambon M, Harrison T, Mok Q, Heath P, Miller E. Respiratory syncytial virus infection in infants admitted to paediatric intensive care units in London, and in their families. Eur J Pediatr 2008, 167(4):395-399. 10.1007/s00431-007-0509-9, 17541638.
17. Hall C, Douglas R, Geiman J. Respiratory syncytial virus infections in infants: quantitation and duration of shedding. J Pediatr 1976, 89(1):11-15. 10.1016/S0022-3476(76)80918-3, 180274.
18. Setzer R. odesolve: Solvers for Ordinary Differential Equations. R package version 0.5-18 edn 2007, Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
19. R Development Core Team A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. 2007, Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, R Development Core Team.
20. Cavanaugh J, Neath A. Generalizing the derivation of the Schwarz information criterion. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods 1999, 28(1):49-66.
21. Landaw E, DiStefano J. Multiexponential, multicompartmental and non-compartmental modeling, II: Data analysis and statistical considerations. American Journal of Physiology (Regulatory Integrative Comparative Physiology 15) 1984, 246:665-677.
22. Waris M. Pattern of respiratory syncytial virus epidemics in Finland: two-year cycles with alternating prevalence of groups A and B. Journal of Infectious Diseases 1991, 163(3):464. 10.1093/infdis/163.3.464, 1995719.
23. Hall C, Walsh E, Schnabel K, Long C, McConnochie K, Hildreth S, Anderson L. Occurrence of groups A and B of respiratory syncytial virus over 15 years: associated epidemiologic and clinical characteristics in hospitalized and ambulatory children. Journal of Infectious Diseases 1990, 162(6):1283. 10.1093/infdis/162.6.1283, 2230258.
24. Dietz K. The incidence of infectious diseases under the influence of seasonal fluctuation. Lecture Notes in Biomathematics 1976, 11. New York: Springer, L S.
25. Novotni D, Weber A. A stochastic method for solving inverse problems in epidemic modeling. Proceedings of the International Conference on Mathematics and Engineering Techniques in Medicine and Biological Sciences 2003, 467-473.
26. O'Neill P, Roberts G. Bayesian inference for partially observed stochastic epidemics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 1999, 162(1):121-129.
27. Glass K, Becker N, Clements M. Predicting case numbers during infectious disease outbreaks when some cases are undiagnosed. Statistics in Medicine 2007, 26:171-183. 10.1002/sim.2523, 16479555.
28. Ionides E, Breto C, King A. Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems. PNAS 2006, 103(49):18438-18443. 10.1073/pnas.0603181103, 3020138, 17121996.
29. Becker N. Statistical challenges of epidemic data. Epidemic Models: Their structure and relation to data 1995, 339-349. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Mollison D.