메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 185, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 1037-1048

Long-range predictability in physics-based synthetic earthquake catalogues

Author keywords

Computational seismology; Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction; Fractures and faults; Probabilistic forecasting; Statistical seismology

Indexed keywords

CALIFORNIA; COMPUTATIONAL SEISMOLOGY; FAULT GEOMETRY; FAULT NETWORKS; INDIVIDUAL CELLS; LONG-RANGE FORECASTING; PHYSICAL PROCESS; PHYSICS-BASED; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING; SCALING PARAMETER; SCALING RELATIONS; STATISTICAL SEISMOLOGY; STRESS EVOLUTION; STRESS INTERACTION; SYNTHETIC SEISMICITY MODEL;

EID: 79954612441     PISSN: 0956540X     EISSN: 1365246X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.04993.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (6)

References (37)
  • 1
    • 0016355478 scopus 로고
    • A new look at the statistical model identification
    • Akaike, H., 1974. A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control AC-19, 716-723.
    • (1974) IEEE Trans. Autom. Control , vol.19 , pp. 716-723
    • Akaike, H.1
  • 2
    • 0034521188 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pore fluid pressure, apparent friction and Coulomb failure
    • Beeler, N., Simpson, R., Lockner, A. & Hickman, S., 2000. Pore fluid pressure, apparent friction and Coulomb failure, J. geophys. Res., 105, 25 533-25 554.
    • (2000) J. geophys. Res. , vol.105
    • Beeler, N.1    Simpson, R.2    Lockner, A.3    Hickman, S.4
  • 4
    • 0029774175 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stress, slip and earthquakes in models of complex single-fault systems incorporating brittle and creep deformation
    • Ben-Zion, Y., 1996. Stress, slip and earthquakes in models of complex single-fault systems incorporating brittle and creep deformation, J. geophys. Res., 101, 5677-5708.
    • (1996) J. geophys. Res. , vol.101 , pp. 5677-5708
    • Ben-Zion, Y.1
  • 5
    • 34250285130 scopus 로고
    • Friction of rocks
    • Byerlee, J.D., 1978. Friction of rocks. Pure appl. Geophys., 116, 615-626.
    • (1978) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.116 , pp. 615-626
    • Byerlee, J.D.1
  • 6
    • 34248647246 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparative performance of time-invariant, long-range and short-range forecasting models on the earthquake catalogue of Greece
    • Console, R., Rhoades, D.A., Murru, M., Evison, F.F., Papadimitriou, E.E. & Karakostas, V.G., 2006. Comparative performance of time-invariant, long-range and short-range forecasting models on the earthquake catalogue of Greece, J. geophys. Res., 111, B09304, doi:.
    • (2006) J. geophys. Res. , vol.111
    • Console, R.1    Rhoades, D.A.2    Murru, M.3    Evison, F.F.4    Papadimitriou, E.E.5    Karakostas, V.G.6
  • 7
    • 84984411767 scopus 로고
    • Earthquake simulations with time-dependent nucleation and long-range interactions
    • Dieterich, J., 1995. Earthquake simulations with time-dependent nucleation and long-range interactions, Journal of Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2, 109-120.
    • (1995) Journal of Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics , vol.2 , pp. 109-120
    • Dieterich, J.1
  • 8
    • 0002792905 scopus 로고
    • The precursory earthquake swarm
    • Evison, F.F., 1977. The precursory earthquake swarm, Phys.Earth planet.Inter., 15, 19-23.
    • (1977) Phys.Earth planet.Inter. , vol.15 , pp. 19-23
    • Evison, F.F.1
  • 9
    • 0032514094 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-term seismogenic processs for major earthquakes in subduction zones
    • Evison, F.F. & Rhoades, D.A., 1998. Long-term seismogenic processs for major earthquakes in subduction zones, Phys.Earth planet.Inter., 108, 185-199.
    • (1998) Phys.Earth planet.Inter. , vol.108 , pp. 185-199
    • Evison, F.F.1    Rhoades, D.A.2
  • 10
    • 0034900790 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model of long-term seismogenesis
    • Evison, F & Rhoades, D., 2001. Model of long-term seismogenesis, Ann.Geophys., 44, 81-93.
    • (2001) Ann.Geophys. , vol.44 , pp. 81-93
    • Evison, F.1    Rhoades, D.2
  • 11
    • 0036625586 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Precursory scale increase and long-term seismogenesis in California and northern Mexico
    • 4
    • Evison, F.F. & Rhoades, D.A., 2002. Precursory scale increase and long-term seismogenesis in California and northern Mexico, Ann.Geophys., 45(3/4), 479-495.
    • (2002) Ann.Geophys. , vol.45 , Issue.3 , pp. 479-495
    • Evison, F.F.1    Rhoades, D.A.2
  • 12
    • 0347506348 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Demarcation and scaling of long-term seismogenesis
    • Evison, F.F. & Rhoades, D.A., 2004. Demarcation and scaling of long-term seismogenesis. Pure appl.Geophys., 161(1), 21-45.
    • (2004) Pure appl.Geophys. , vol.161 , Issue.1 , pp. 21-45
    • Evison, F.F.1    Rhoades, D.A.2
  • 13
    • 0035199699 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A forward model for earthquake generation on interacting faults including tectonics, fluids, and stress transfer
    • Fitzenz, D. & Miller, S., 2001. A forward model for earthquake generation on interacting faults including tectonics, fluids, and stress transfer, J.geophys.Res., 106, 26 689-26 706.
    • (2001) J.geophys.Res. , vol.106
    • Fitzenz, D.1    Miller, S.2
  • 14
    • 0018681891 scopus 로고
    • Differences in time terms between New Zealand seismograph stations and implications for crustal structure
    • Haines, A.J., 1979. Differences in time terms between New Zealand seismograph stations and implications for crustal structure, New Zealand J.Geol.Geophys., 22, 245-257.
    • (1979) New Zealand J.Geol.Geophys. , vol.22 , pp. 245-257
    • Haines, A.J.1
  • 15
    • 0019147368 scopus 로고
    • Seismic wave velocities in the uppermost mantle beneath New Zealand
    • Haines, A.J., 1980. Seismic wave velocities in the uppermost mantle beneath New Zealand, New Zealand J.Geol.Geophys., 23, 541-549.
    • (1980) New Zealand J.Geol.Geophys. , vol.23 , pp. 541-549
    • Haines, A.J.1
  • 16
    • 0032720846 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamic 3D-simulations of earthquakes on en echelon faults
    • Harris, R.A. & Day, S.M., 1999. Dynamic 3D-simulations of earthquakes on en echelon faults, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2089-2092
    • (1999) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.26 , pp. 2089-2092
    • Harris, R.A.1    Day, S.M.2
  • 17
    • 0025595759 scopus 로고
    • Evidence for and implications of self-healing pulses of slip in earthquake rupture
    • Heaton, T., 1990. Evidence for and implications of self-healing pulses of slip in earthquake rupture, Phys.Earth planet.Inter., 64, 1-20.
    • (1990) Phys.Earth planet.Inter. , vol.64 , pp. 1-20
    • Heaton, T.1
  • 18
    • 0000363656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testable earthquake forecasts for 1999
    • Jackson, D.D. & Kagan, Y., 1999. Testable earthquake forecasts for 1999, Seismol. Res. Lett., 70, 393-403
    • (1999) Seismol. Res. Lett. , vol.70 , pp. 393-403
    • Jackson, D.D.1    Kagan, Y.2
  • 19
    • 0027095145 scopus 로고
    • Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space
    • Okada, Y. 1992. Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space, Bull.seism.Soc.Am., 82, 1018-1040.
    • (1992) Bull.seism.Soc.Am. , vol.82 , pp. 1018-1040
    • Okada, Y.1
  • 20
    • 0000659779 scopus 로고
    • An experiment in earthquake control at Rangely, Colorado
    • Raleigh, C. B., Healy, J. & Bredehoft, J., 1976. An experiment in earthquake control at Rangely, Colorado, Science, 191, 1230-1237.
    • (1976) Science , vol.191 , pp. 1230-1237
    • Raleigh, C.B.1    Healy, J.2    Bredehoft, J.3
  • 21
    • 34248670841 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Application of the EEPAS model to forecasting earthquakes of moderate magnitude in southern California
    • Rhoades, D.A., 2007. Application of the EEPAS model to forecasting earthquakes of moderate magnitude in southern California, Seismol.Res.Lett., 78(1), 110-115.
    • (2007) Seismol.Res.Lett , vol.78 , Issue.1 , pp. 110-115
    • Rhoades, D.A.1
  • 22
    • 67650146277 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-range earthquake forecasting allowing for aftershocks
    • Rhoades, D.A., 2009. Long-range earthquake forecasting allowing for aftershocks, Geophys.J.Int., 178, 244-256.
    • (2009) Geophys.J.Int , vol.178 , pp. 244-256
    • Rhoades, D.A.1
  • 23
    • 77954310067 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Lessons and questions from thirty years of testing the precursory swarm hypothesis
    • Rhoades, D.A., 2010. Lessons and questions from thirty years of testing the precursory swarm hypothesis, Pure appl.Geophys., 167, 629-644.
    • (2010) Pure appl.Geophys , vol.167 , pp. 629-644
    • Rhoades, D.A.1
  • 24
    • 0347506347 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-range earthquake forecasting with every earthquake a precursor according to scale
    • Rhoades, D.A. & Evison, F.F., 2004. Long-range earthquake forecasting with every earthquake a precursor according to scale, Pure appl.Geophys., 161(1), 47-71.
    • (2004) Pure appl.Geophys , vol.161 , Issue.1 , pp. 47-71
    • Rhoades, D.A.1    Evison, F.F.2
  • 25
    • 20344383489 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Test of the EEPAS forecasting model on the Japan earthquake catalogue
    • 7
    • Rhoades, D.A. & Evison, F.F., 2005. Test of the EEPAS forecasting model on the Japan earthquake catalogue, Pure appl.Geophys., 162(6/7), 1271-1290.
    • (2005) Pure appl.Geophys , vol.162 , Issue.6 , pp. 1271-1290
    • Rhoades, D.A.1    Evison, F.F.2
  • 26
    • 33645311194 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability of moderate-to-large earthquakes in central Japan
    • 2
    • Rhoades, D.A. & Evison, F.F., 2006. The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability of moderate-to-large earthquakes in central Japan, Tectonophysics, 417(1/2), 119-130.
    • (2006) Tectonophysics , vol.417 , Issue.1 , pp. 119-130
    • Rhoades, D.A.1    Evison, F.F.2
  • 27
    • 67649983973 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mixture models for improved short-term earthquake forecasting
    • Rhoades, D.A. & M.C. Gerstenberger, 2009. Mixture models for improved short-term earthquake forecasting, Bull.seism.Soc.Am., 99(2), 636-646.
    • (2009) Bull.seism.Soc.Am. , vol.99 , Issue.2 , pp. 636-646
    • Rhoades, D.A.1    Gerstenberger, M.C.2
  • 29
    • 8744232202 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential earthquake triggering in a complex fault network: the northern South Island, New Zealand
    • Robinson, R., 2004. Potential earthquake triggering in a complex fault network: the northern South Island, New Zealand, Geophys.J.Int., 159, 734-748.
    • (2004) Geophys.J.Int , vol.159 , pp. 734-748
    • Robinson, R.1
  • 30
    • 0030429054 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Synthetic seismicity models for the Wellington region, New Zealand: implications for the temporal distribution of large events
    • Robinson, R. & Benites, R., 1996. Synthetic seismicity models for the Wellington region, New Zealand: implications for the temporal distribution of large events, J.geophys.Res., 101, 27 833-27 845.
    • (1996) J.geophys.Res , vol.101
    • Robinson, R.1    Benites, R.2
  • 31
    • 0035330546 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Upgrading a synthetic seismicity model for more realistic fault ruptures
    • Robinson, R. & Benites, R., 2001. Upgrading a synthetic seismicity model for more realistic fault ruptures, Geophys.Res.Lett., 28, 1843-1846.
    • (2001) Geophys.Res.Lett. , vol.28 , pp. 1843-1846
    • Robinson, R.1    Benites, R.2
  • 32
    • 21844443898 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Precursory accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) in a synthetic seismicity catalog; a preliminary study
    • Robinson, R., Zhou, S., Johnston, S. & Vere-Jones, D., 2005. Precursory accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) in a synthetic seismicity catalog; a preliminary study. Geophys.Res.Lett., 32, L07309, doi:.
    • (2005) Geophys.Res.Lett. , vol.32
    • Robinson, R.1    Zhou, S.2    Johnston, S.3    Vere-Jones, D.4
  • 33
    • 77954236286 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Features of earthquake occurrence in a complex normal fault network: results from a synthetic seismicity model of the Taupo Rift, New Zealand
    • Robinson, R., Nicol, A., Walsh, J. & Villamor, P., 2009. Features of earthquake occurrence in a complex normal fault network: results from a synthetic seismicity model of the Taupo Rift, New Zealand. J. geophys. Res., 114, B12306, doi:.
    • (2009) J. geophys. Res. , vol.114
    • Robinson, R.1    Nicol, A.2    Walsh, J.3    Villamor, P.4
  • 34
    • 33750379248 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Virtural California: fault model, frictional parameters, applications
    • Rundle, P., Rundle, J., Tiampo, K., Donnellan, A. & Turcotte, D., 2006. Virtural California: fault model, frictional parameters, applications, Pure appl.Geophys., 163, 1819-1846.
    • (2006) Pure appl.Geophys. , vol.163 , pp. 1819-1846
    • Rundle, P.1    Rundle, J.2    Tiampo, K.3    Donnellan, A.4    Turcotte, D.5
  • 35
    • 0034130625 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • San Francisco Bay Area earthquake simulations: a step toward a standard physical earthquake model
    • Ward, S., 2000. San Francisco Bay Area earthquake simulations: a step toward a standard physical earthquake model, Bull.seism.Soc.Am., 90, 370-386.
    • (2000) Bull.seism.Soc.Am. , vol.90 , pp. 370-386
    • Ward, S.1
  • 36
    • 46149119581 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Displacement and geometrical characteristics of earthquake surface ruptures: issues and implications for seismic-hazard analysis and the process of earthquake rupture
    • Wesnousky, S., 2008. Displacement and geometrical characteristics of earthquake surface ruptures: issues and implications for seismic-hazard analysis and the process of earthquake rupture, Bull.seism.Soc.Am., 98, 1609-1632.
    • (2008) Bull.seism.Soc.Am. , vol.98 , pp. 1609-1632
    • Wesnousky, S.1
  • 37
    • 33745750756 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tests of the precursory accelerating moment release (AMR) model using a synthetic seismicity model for Wellington, New Zealand
    • Zhou, S., Johnston, S., Robinson, R. & Vere-Jones, D., 2006. Tests of the precursory accelerating moment release (AMR) model using a synthetic seismicity model for Wellington, New Zealand. J.geophys.Res., 111, B05308, doi:.
    • (2006) J.geophys.Res. , vol.111
    • Zhou, S.1    Johnston, S.2    Robinson, R.3    Vere-Jones, D.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.