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Volumn 41, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 111-138

Cross-cuttingness, cleavage structures and civil war onset

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EID: 79954456400     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: 14692112     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123410000311     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (58)

References (119)
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    • I use the broader term social structure to refer to a description of macro social cleavages and groups including characteristics of individual cleavages and/or groups as well as the relationship of cleavages to each other
    • I use the broader term social structure to refer to a description of macro social cleavages and groups including characteristics of individual cleavages and/or groups as well as the relationship of cleavages to each other.
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    • A cleavage is a 'division on the basis of some criteria of individuals, groups, or organizations between whom conflict may arise', and, London: Sage
    • A cleavage is a 'division on the basis of some criteria of individuals, groups, or organizations [between] whom conflict may arise' (Jan-Erik Lane and Svante O. Ersson, Politics and Society in Western Europe (London: Sage, 1994).
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    • All the previously cited cleavages have been or can be further dissected: ethnicity into race and language, religion into sects and denominations, and geography into region, rural/urban residence and centre/periphery
    • All the previously cited cleavages have been or can be further dissected: ethnicity into race and language, religion into sects and denominations, and geography into region, rural/urban residence and centre/periphery.
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    • I explicitly separate the two cleavages as distinct, while recognizing that much recent work on ethnicity incorporates religion into a broader definition of ethnicity. See:, New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press
    • I explicitly separate the two cleavages as distinct, while recognizing that much recent work on ethnicity incorporates religion into a broader definition of ethnicity. See: A. Varshney, Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2002);
    • (2002) Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life
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    • Daniel N. Posner, 'Measuring Ethnic Fractionalization in Africa', American Journal of Political Science, 48(2004), 849-63. This decision comes with trade-offs, most important of which is that in countries where ethnicity and religion seem virtually inseparable, such as Malaysia, we cannot know whether a measure of cross-cuttingness is meaningful. More broadly, we can categorize this in the long-standing challenge of measuring the salience of cleavages in society. (Pubitemid 39483449)
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    • There is a growing sociological literature, under the rubric of the 'religious economy', which argues that switching religions especially denominations within religions is more common than many think. In my dataset, for most of the countries that appeared in more than one survey over time, there appeared to be minimal changes in the scores. On the whole, this supports my assertion that religious and ethnic identity are difficult, though not impossible, to change, especially when they are the bases for conflict
    • There is a growing sociological literature, under the rubric of the 'religious economy', which argues that switching religions (especially denominations within religions) is more common than many think. In my dataset, for most of the countries that appeared in more than one survey over time, there appeared to be minimal changes in the scores. On the whole, this supports my assertion that religious and ethnic identity are difficult, though not impossible, to change, especially when they are the bases for conflict.
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    • A group is a category of identity/membership within a single cleavage, such as Christian and Muslim within the religion cleavage
    • A group is a category of identity/membership within a single cleavage, such as Christian and Muslim within the religion cleavage.
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    • Easterly and Levine, for example, use the terms ethnic diversity, polarization and ethnic fractionalization almost interchangeably in their path-breaking study on how ethnicity affects economic growth. See:, and
    • Easterly and Levine, for example, use the terms ethnic diversity, polarization and ethnic fractionalization almost interchangeably in their path-breaking study on how ethnicity affects economic growth. See: W. Easterly and R. Levine, 'Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(1997), 1203-50.
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    • i is the proportion of society that identifies with a given ethnic group
    • i is the proportion of society that identifies with a given ethnic group.
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    • i is again the proportion of society that identifies with a given ethnic group. While this equation is similar to Esteban and Ray's measure of polarization, Reynal-Querol imposes an assumption that the distance, or intensity of difference, between any pair of groups is identical. In other words, cultural distance is already contained in the underlying assumption. To avoid confusion with cultural polarization, I use the term bipolarization, since the measure is maximized with two groups or two poles of equal size. See:, and
    • i is again the proportion of society that identifies with a given ethnic group. While this equation is similar to Esteban and Ray's measure of polarization, Reynal-Querol imposes an assumption that the distance, or intensity of difference, between any pair of groups is identical. In other words, cultural distance is already contained in the underlying assumption. To avoid confusion with cultural polarization, I use the term bipolarization, since the measure is maximized with two groups (or two poles) of equal size. See: J. M. Esteban and D. Ray, 'On the Measurement of Polarization', Econometrica, 62(1994), 819-51.
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    • Annett also offers a measure of social fractionalization, which captures fractionalization on both the religious and ethnic cleavages - defined as one half times the value of ethnic fractionalization plus one half times the value of religious fractionalization. To date, I have not seen this measure used in a study of civil war
    • Collier and Hoeffler, 'Greed and Grievance in Civil War'. Annett also offers a measure of social fractionalization, which captures fractionalization on both the religious and ethnic cleavages - defined as one half times the value of ethnic fractionalization plus one half times the value of religious fractionalization. To date, I have not seen this measure used in a study of civil war.
    • Greed and Grievance in Civil War
    • Collier1    Hoeffler2
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    • See Anthony Annett, 'Social Fractionalization, Political Instability, and the Size of Government', IMF Staff Papers, 48 (2001).
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    • This term is my own. Past references to this same characteristic/ phenomenon include cross-cutting cleavages, cross-cutting circles, criss-cross pattern of cleavage structure and intersection of cleavages. The antonym reinforcing has also been referred to as overlapping cleavages, consolidation of cleavages, superimposition of lines of differentiation and correspondence of cleavages
    • This term is my own. Past references to this same characteristic/ phenomenon include cross-cutting cleavages, cross-cutting circles, criss-cross pattern of cleavage structure and intersection of cleavages. The antonym (reinforcing) has also been referred to as overlapping cleavages, consolidation of cleavages, superimposition of lines of differentiation and correspondence of cleavages.
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    • In between the individual and cleavage levels of analysis is the group-level dynamic. Cross-fragmentation, furthermore, dissolves in-groups and diminishes group pressures. To motivate measures of cross-cuttingness, I thus pose the question: 'In what way should groups on a cleavage x be distributed amongst groups on a second cleavage y to maximize cross-cuttingess?' This question motivates at least two additional measures - cross-proportionalization and cross-bipolarization-and indeed is able to motivate our first two measures also. Indices for these measures have not yet been computed, but are forthcoming. See Selway, 'Crosscutting Cleavages'.
    • Crosscutting Cleavages
    • Selway1
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    • Since the statistics literature is unclear on which measure is superior, I opt for the more widely used Cramer's V. See:, New York: Wiley-Interscience
    • Since the statistics literature is unclear on which measure is superior, I opt for the more widely used Cramer's V. See: Alan Agresti, Categorical Data Analysis (New York: Wiley-Interscience, 2002).
    • (2002) Categorical Data Analysis
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    • O stands for the observed frequencies in a simple cross-tabulation of the religious and ethnic cleavages; E stands for expected frequencies, calculated by multiplying the two marginal frequencies from the original cross-tabulation; i refers to cells in the contingency table
    • O stands for the observed frequencies in a simple cross-tabulation of the religious and ethnic cleavages; E stands for expected frequencies, calculated by multiplying the two marginal frequencies from the original cross-tabulation; i refers to cells in the contingency table.
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    • However, neither heterogeneity nor sub-group fractionalization are sensitive to group identity on both cleavages, and thus do not capture cross-cuttingness. A simple example illustrates why sub-group fractionalization is not a measure of cross-cuttingness. Consider Society A with its two ethnic groups, black and white, each composing 50 per cent of the population, and its two religions, Christian and Muslim, each also composing 50 per cent of the population. The sub-group fractionalization score for Society A is 0.5. In a second society, B, we could have a society with the same sub-group fractionalization score, 0.5, but with a huge difference in the structure of its cleavages. Specifically, in Society B, there is just one ethnic group split 50-50 between religions. We can thus see where subgroup fractionalization fails to capture the concept of cross-cuttingness: it is not sensitive to the identities of the groups that compose the subgroups. Selway identifies this as a cross-cuttingness axiom. See Selway, 'Cross-cutting Cleavages'.
    • Cross-cutting Cleavages
    • Selway1
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    • Collier and Hoeffler imply that this relationship should be interactive also. See, and
    • Collier and Hoeffler imply that this relationship should be interactive also. See Collier and Hoeffler, 'Greed and Grievance in Civil War', p. 570.
    • Greed and Grievance in Civil War , pp. 570
    • Collier1    Hoeffler2
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    • We thank the Latin American Public Opinion Project LAPOP and its major supporters the United States Agency for International Development, the United Nations Development Program, the Inter-American Development Bank and Vanderbilt University for making the data available
    • The Americas Barometer by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), http://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/HOME. We thank the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) and its major supporters (the United States Agency for International Development, the United Nations Development Program, the Inter-American Development Bank and Vanderbilt University) for making the data available.
    • The Americas Barometer by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP)
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    • Takashi Inoguchi et al., Asia Barometer Survey Data (2003 or 2004) [computer file]. Asia Barometer Project (http://www.asiabarometer.org/) [producer and distributor], Accessed December 2006.
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    • Asia Barometer is a registered trademark of Professor Takashi Inoguchi, Chuo University, Japan, Director of the AsiaBarometer Project, Room 2137, Building Two, Chuo University, Korakuen Campus, 1-13-27 Kasuga, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-8551, Japan
    • Asia Barometer is a registered trademark of Professor Takashi Inoguchi, Chuo University, Japan, Director of the AsiaBarometer Project, Room 2137, Building Two, Chuo University, Korakuen Campus, 1-13-27 Kasuga, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-8551, Japan.
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    • Appendix, available at author's website
    • Appendix available at author's website, http://www.umich.edu/, jselway.
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    • See author's website
    • See author's website http://www.umich.edu/, jselway.
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    • raw data, including tables from these analyses, will eventually be available at the author's website
    • The raw data, including tables from these analyses, will eventually be available at the author's website http://www.umich.edu/, jselway.
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    • This comparison was necessarily restricted to African countries, and thus the Afrobarometer and World Values Survey, since Posner's index concentrates on Africa. The results are nevertheless encouraging. See:, Full analysis is available in the appendix at
    • This comparison was necessarily restricted to African countries, and thus the Afrobarometer and World Values Survey, since Posner's index concentrates on Africa. The results are nevertheless encouraging. See: Posner, 'Measuring Ethnic Fractionalization in Africa'. Full analysis is available in the appendix at http://www.umich.edu/, jselway.
    • Measuring Ethnic Fractionalization in Africa
    • Posner1
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    • There may be additional problems of representativeness in terms of the self-selection bias inherent in the types of surveys I am using. While this may exclude countries that have recently experienced civil war, the data go back far enough to diminish this problem
    • There may be additional problems of representativeness in terms of the self-selection bias inherent in the types of surveys I am using. While this may exclude countries that have recently experienced civil war, the data go back far enough to diminish this problem.
  • 93
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    • IMF, Washington, D. C.: International Monetary Fund
    • IMF, 'World Economic Outlook Database' (Washington, D. C.: International Monetary Fund, 2007).
    • (2007) World Economic Outlook Database
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    • Taking time seriously: Time-series-cross-section analysis with a binary dependent variable
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    • See Nathaniel Beck, Jonathan N. Katz and Richard Tucker, 'Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable', American Journal of Political Science, 42(1998), 1260-88.
    • (1998) American Journal of Political Science , vol.42 , pp. 1260-1288
    • Beck, N.1    Katz, J.N.2    Tucker, R.3
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    • I also experiment with two alternative ways to control for time dependence. First, I use a lagged variable for the occurrence of war as Fearon and Laitin do see Fearon and Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War'. In addition, I follow Hegre et al.'s method of using a variable that assumes that the effect of a previous conflict is decaying over time according to the formula exp-peace years/X, where 'peace years' is the number of years since a country experienced a civil war
    • I also experiment with two alternative ways to control for time dependence. First, I use a lagged variable for the occurrence of war as Fearon and Laitin do (see Fearon and Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War'). In addition, I follow Hegre et al.'s method of using a variable that assumes that the effect of a previous conflict is decaying over time according to the formula exp{ (-peace years)/X}, where 'peace years' is the number of years since a country experienced a civil war
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    • see, and, The value X determines the rate of decay. I follow Toset et al. and set X to 4, implying that the risk of civil war is halved approximately every 3 years
    • (see Hegre and Sambanis, 'Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset'. The value X determines the rate of decay. I follow Toset et al. and set X to 4, implying that the risk of civil war is halved approximately every 3 years
    • Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset
    • Hegre1    Sambanis2
  • 98
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    • Shared rivers and interstate conflict
    • see, and, This decaying variable takes on values close to 1 immediately after the end of a conflict and approaches 0 over time. The major results are not appreciably affected by these various approaches
    • (see H. P. W. Toset, N. P. Gleditsch and H. Hegre, 'Shared Rivers and Interstate Conflict', Political Geography, 19(2000), 971-96. This decaying variable takes on values close to 1 immediately after the end of a conflict and approaches 0 over time. The major results are not appreciably affected by these various approaches.
    • (2000) Political Geography , vol.19 , pp. 971-996
    • Toset, H.P.W.1    Gleditsch, N.P.2    Hegre, H.3
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    • Armed conflict 1946-2001: A new dataset
    • Sometimes referred to as the 'Armed Conflict Data', the PRIO data I use were restricted to conflicts with at least 1, 000 battle deaths by Urdal. I thank him for his generous sharing of data
    • N. P. Gleditsch, P. Wallensteen, M. Eriksson, M. Sollenberg and H. Strand, 'Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset', Journal of Peace Research, 39(2002), 615-37. Sometimes referred to as the 'Armed Conflict Data', the PRIO data I use were restricted to conflicts with at least 1, 000 battle deaths by Urdal. I thank him for his generous sharing of data
    • (2002) Journal of Peace Research , vol.39 , pp. 615-637
    • Gleditsch, N.P.1    Wallensteen, P.2    Eriksson, M.3    Sollenberg, M.4    Strand, H.5
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    • Appendix available at
    • Appendix available at http://www.umich.edu/, jselway.
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    • Greed and grievance in civil war
    • Collier and Hoeffler, 'Greed and Grievance in Civil War', Oxford Economic Papers, 56 (2004).
    • (2004) Oxford Economic Papers , vol.56
    • Collier1    Hoeffler2
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    • exact definition is a country with territory holding at least 10, 000 people and separated from the land area containing the capital city either by land or by 100 kilometres of water. These were coded as 'non-contiguous' see, and
    • The exact definition is a country with territory holding at least 10, 000 people and separated from the land area containing the capital city either by land or by 100 kilometres of water. These were coded as 'non-contiguous' (see Fearon and Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War').
    • Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
    • Fearon1    Laitin2
  • 105
    • 0008124501 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • I also include a measure of democracy based on the Polity IV index, which ranges from 110, most democratic, to 210, least democratic Democracy. All these variables are taken from Fearon and Laitin. I thank them for their generous sharing of data see, and
    • I also include a measure of democracy based on the Polity IV index, which ranges from 110, most democratic, to 210, least democratic (Democracy). All these variables are taken from Fearon and Laitin. I thank them for their generous sharing of data (see Fearon and Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War').
    • Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
    • Fearon1    Laitin2
  • 106
    • 85028097521 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coefficients on each of the single-dimension characteristics were also statistically insignificant, as were various combinations of pairs of these variables. For lack of space, these results are not displayed
    • Coefficients on each of the single-dimension characteristics were also statistically insignificant, as were various combinations of pairs of these variables. For lack of space, these results are not displayed.
  • 107
    • 85028100043 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • addition, I ran models using all the other indices of civil war used in this article and all other social structure variables. The conclusion is that F&L's results on Oil and Income are not robust
    • In addition, I ran models using all the other indices of civil war used in this article and all other social structure variables. The conclusion is that F&L's results on Oil and Income are not robust.
  • 108
    • 85028117550 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • I note that I also find mixed results for ethnic and religious bipolarization measures, for which Montalvo and Reynal-Querol show strong empirical support see, and
    • I note that I also find mixed results for ethnic and religious bipolarization measures, for which Montalvo and Reynal-Querol show strong empirical support (see Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 'Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars').
    • Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars
    • Montalvo1    Reynal-Querol2
  • 110
    • 85028126992 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • All excluded figures will be made available on the author's website
    • All excluded figures will be made available on the author's website.
  • 111
    • 85028127446 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Full results are available on the author's website at
    • Full results are available on the author's website at http://www.umich.edu/, jselway.
  • 112
    • 23044526113 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The dorrelates of war data on war: An update to 1997
    • Meredith Reid Sarkees, 'The Correlates of War Data on War: An Update to 1997', Conflict Management and Peace Science, 18(2000), 123-44. (Pubitemid 33258321)
    • (2000) Conflict Management and Peace Science , vol.18 , Issue.1 , pp. 123-144
    • Sarkees, M.R.1
  • 113
    • 85028125926 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • See
    • See http://globalpolicy.gmu.edu/pitf
  • 116
    • 9944235712 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What is civil war? Conceptual and empirical complexities of an operational definition
    • DOI 10.1177/0022002704269355
    • For a more in-depth discussion on the important differences amongst these different datasets, see Nicholas Sambanis, 'What Is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(2004), 814-58. These additional data are perhaps best seen as additional robustness tests. (Pubitemid 39594124)
    • (2004) Journal of Conflict Resolution , vol.48 , Issue.6 , pp. 814-858
    • Sambanis, N.1
  • 117
    • 0035354434 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do ethnic and nonethnic civil wars have the same causes? A theoretical and empirical inquiry (part 1)
    • Nicholas Sambanis, 'Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part 1) ', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45(2001), 259-82.
    • (2001) Journal of Conflict Resolution , vol.45 , pp. 259-282
    • Sambanis, N.1
  • 118
    • 85028092919 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • All results are available in the appendix at
    • All results are available in the appendix at http://www.umich.edu/, jselway.
  • 119
    • 85028106064 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Indeed, the author is currently compiling such data. A more comprehensive project to map the geographic location of ethnic groups is currently being directed by Lars-Erik Cederman and various co-authors. See:, and
    • Indeed, the author is currently compiling such data. A more comprehensive project to map the geographic location of ethnic groups is currently being directed by Lars-Erik Cederman and various co-authors. See: Cederman, Rød and Weidmann, 'Geo-Referencing of Ethnic Groups'.
    • Geo-Referencing of Ethnic Groups
    • Cederman1    Rød2    Weidmann3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.