Earthquake forecast models for inland Japan based on the G-R law and the modified G-R law

Earth, Planets and Space

Volumn 63, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 239-260

  Hirose, Fuyuki ^a   Maeda, Kenji ^a  

^a METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Japan)

Author keywords

B value; CSEP for japan; Earthquake forecast; G R law; Minimum limit of expected seismicity; Modified G R law; Modified omori formula; Retrospective forecasts

Indexed keywords

AFTERSHOCK; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; FORECASTING METHOD; SEISMICITY;

JAPAN;

EID: 79953845063     PISSN: 13438832     EISSN: 18805981     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5047/eps.2010.10.002     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Akaike, H., A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Trans. Auto. Com., 19(6), 716-723, 1974.
2. Aki, K., Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula logN = a - bM and its confidence limits, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., 43, 237-239, 1965.
3. Anderson, R. N., A. Hasegawa, N. Umino, and A. Takagi, Phase changes and the frequency-magnitude distribution in the upper plane of the deep seismic zone beneath Tohoku, Japan, J. Geophys. Res., 85, 1389-1398, 1980.
4. Burroughs, S. M. and S. T. Tebbens, The upper-truncated power law applied to earthquake cumulative frequency-magnitude distributions: Evidence for a time-independent scaling parameter, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 2983-2993, 2002. (Pubitemid 36352748)
5. Earthquake Research Committee, Report: 'National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan', 2006 (in Japanese).
6. Gerstenberger, M., S. Wiemer, and D. Giardini, A systematic test of the hypothesis that the b value varies with depth in California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 57-60, 2001.
7. Gutenberg, B. and C. F. Richter, Frequency of earthquakes in California, Bull. Seismol. Soc Am., 34, 185-188, 1944.
8. Hirose, F., A. Nakamura, and A. Hasegawa, b-value variation associated with the rupture of asperities: Spatial and temporal distributions of b-value east off NE Japan, J. Seismol. Soc. Jpn., 2, 55, 249-260, 2002a (in Japanese with English abstract).
9. Hirose, F., A. Nakamura, J. Nakajima, and A. Hasegawa, Along-arc variation of magma source in the subducted slab beneath the NE Japan arc: Estimation from b-value and S-wave velocity distributions, J. Volcanol. Soc. Jpn., 47, 475-480, 2002b (in Japanese with English abstract).
10. Kagan, Y. Y. and D. D. Jackson, New seismic gap hypothesis: Five years after, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 3943-3959, 1995.
11. c based on a modified G-R model of magnitude-frequency distribution, J. Seismol. Soc Jpn., 2, 55, 261-273, 2002 (in Japanese with English abstract).
12. Matsuda, T., Magnitude and recurrence interval of earthquakes from a fault, J. Seismol. Soc. Jpn., 2, 28, 269-283, 1975 (in Japanese with English abstract).
13. Murru, M., C. Montuori, M. Wyss, and E. Privitera, The locations of magma chambers at Mt. Etna, Italy, mapped by b-values, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2553-2556, 1999.
14. Nanjo, K., H. Tsuruoka, N. Hirata, and Research group "Earthquake Forecast System based on Seismicity of Japan" Earthquake forecast testing experiment for Japan: Advancing the preparatory process towards the formal start of the experiment, Prog. Abst. Seismol. Soc. Jpn. 2009, Fall Meet., D22-01, 2009 (in Japanese).
15. Okada, T., S. Hori, T. Kono, T. Nakayama, S. Hirahara, K. Nii, A. Omuralieva, J. Nakajima, N. Umino, and A. Hasegawa, Inhomogeneous seismic velocity structure and its relation with seismic activity in the central part of Tohoku, NE Japan, Abst. Jpn. Geosci. Union Meet. 2008, S147-008, 2008.
16. Öncel, A. O. and M. Wyss, The major asperities of the 1999 Mw = 7.4 Izmit earthquake defined by the microseismicity of the two decades before it, Geophys. J. Int., 143, 501-506, 2000.
17. Rydelek, P. A. and I. S. Sacks, Testing the completeness of earthquake catalogs and the hypothesis of self-similarity, Nature, 337, 251-254, 1989.
18. Scholz, C. H., The frequency-magnitude relation of microfracturing in rock and its relation to earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 58, 399-415, 1968.
19. Schorlemmer, D., S. Wiemer, and M. Wyss, Variations in earthquakesize distribution across different stress regimes, Nature, 437, 539-542, doi: 10.1038/nature04094, 2005. (Pubitemid 41613549)
20. Schorlemmer, D., M. C. Gerstenberger, S. Wiemer, D. D. Jackson, and D. A. Rhoades, Earthquake likelihood model testing, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78, 17-29, 2007.
21. Suyehiro, S., Difference between aftershocks and foreshocks in the relationship of magnitude to frequency of occurrence for the great Chilean earthquake of 1960, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 56, 185-200, 1966.
22. Umino, N. and I. S. Sacks, Magnitude-frequency relations for northeastern Japan, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 83, 1492-1506, 1993. (Pubitemid 24420841)
23. Utsu, T., Magnitude of earthquakes and occurrence of their aftershocks, J. Seismol. Soc. Jpn., 2, 10, 35-45, 1957 (in Japanese with English abstract).
24. Utsu, T., A three-parameter formula for magnitude distribution of earthquakes, J. Phys. Earth, 22, 71-85, 1974.
25. Utsu, T. and Y. Ogata, Computer program package: Statistical Analysis of point processes for Seismicity, SASeis, IASPEI Software Library for personal computers, the International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior in collaboration with the American Seismological Society, 6, 13-94, 1997.
26. Utsu, T. and A. Seki, A relation between the area of after-shock region and the energy of main-shock, J. Seismol. Soc. Jpn., 2, 1, 233-240, 1955 (in Japanese with English abstract).
27. Wessel, P. and W. H. F. Smith, Free software helps map and display data, Eos Trans. AGU, 11, 441, 1991.
28. Wiemer, S. and J. P. Benoit, Mapping the b-value anomaly at 100 km depth in the Alaska and New Zealand subduction zones, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1557-1560, 1996.
29. Wiemer, S. and S. R. McNutt, Variations in the frequency-magnitude distribution with depth in two volcanic areas: Mount St. Helens, Washington, and Mt. Spurr, Alaska, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 189-192, 1997.
30. Wiemer, S. and D. Schorlemmer, ALM: an asperity-based likelihood model for California, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78, 134-140, 2007.
31. Wiemer, S. and M. Wyss, Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperities: An improved technique to calculate recurrence times?, J. Geophys.Res., 102, 15115-15128, 1997.
32. Wyss, M., Changes of mean magnitude of Parkfield seismicity: A part of the precursory process?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 2429-2432, 1990.
33. Wyss, M., D. Schorlemmer, and S. Wiemer, Mapping asperities by minima of local recurrence time: San Jacinto-Elsinore fault zones, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 7829-7844, 2000.