The republican resurgence in 2010

Political Science Quarterly

Volumn 126, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 27-52

  Jacobson, Gary C ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 79953840374     PISSN: 00323195     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/j.1538-165X.2011.tb00693.x     Document Type: Article

References (100)

1. Including the two independents who organize with the Democrats.
2. For a review of the extensive literature on the development of these models.
3. see Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 7th ed. (New York: Longman, 2000), 155-174.
4. The model is in Jacobson, Politics of Congressional Elections, 160.
5. With Democrats holding 40 more seats than their eight-election average, real income growth at a feeble.015 percent, and Obama's approval rating at 45 percent in the final Gallup Poll taken before the election, the model's parameters predict the Republicans to gain 56 seats.
6. The midterm forecasts of Republican gains reported in the October 2010 issue of PS ranged from 22 to 51 seats.
7. see James E. Campbell, ed., "Symposium: Forecasts for the 2010 Midterm Elections," PS: Political Science and Politics 43 (October 2010): 625-641.
8. The categorization is somewhat arbitrary, but the same substantive results appear if a 62 percent range defines the categories or if the Obama-McCain vote in 2008 is used instead of the Kerry vote. I chose the Kerry vote because it replicates previous work.
9. see Gary C. Jacobson, "The 2008 Presidential and Congressional Elections: Anti-Bush Referendum and Prospects for the Democratic Majority," Political Science Quarterly 124 (Spring 2009): 1-30.
10. See Gallup Poll results from September, October, and November surveys, accessed at http://www. gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx, 22 November 2010.
11. CBS News/New York Times polls of August, September, and October, accessed at http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/12/politics/main3362530.shtml?tag5featuredPostArea, 22 November 2010.
12. In the CBS News/New York Times survey taken 21-26 October 2010.
13. 30 percent blamed the Bush administration for the current state of the economy, 8 percent blamed Obama, 22 percent blamed Wall Street, 13 percent blamed Congress, and 18 percent blamed some combination of them.
14. In the 2010 national exit poll, 29 percent blamed Bush, 24 percent, Obama, and 35 percent, Wall Street, accessed at http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val5USH00p3, 22 November 2010.
15. Gary C. Jacobson, A Divider, Not a Uniter: George W. Bush and the American People, 2d ed. (New York: Longman, 2011), 4-6.
16. For example, in the nine ABC News/Washington Post polls taken in the first 10 months of 2010.
17. 80 percent of the disapprovers disapproved of Obama's performance strongly, compared with 56 percent of the approvers who approved strongly; accessed at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_10302010.html?sid5ST2010103100110, 15 November 2010.
18. Ed Henry and Ed Hornick, "Rage Rising on the McCain Campaign Trial," CNN, 11 October 2008, accessed at http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/10/mccain.crowd/, 8 July 2010.
19. Jake Tapper, "Another Man Yells 'Kill Him!' About Obama at Palin Rally," ABC News, 14 October, 2008, accessed at http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/another-man-yel.html, 8 July 2010.
20. Kate Kenski, Bruce W. Hardy, and Kathleen Hall Jamieson, The Obama Victory: How Media, Money, and Message Shaped the 2008 Election (New York: Oxford University Press, 2010), 226-230.
21. Scott Conroy, "Palin: Obama's Plan is 'Experiment With Socialism,'" CBS News, 19 October 2008, accessed at http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503443_162-4532388.html, 21 June 2010.
22. Bob Drogan and Mark Barabak, "McCain Says Obama Wants Socialism," Los Angeles Times, 19 October 2008.
23. Gary C. Jacobson, "Obama and the Polarized Public," in James A. Thurber, ed., Obama in Office: The First Two Years (Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers, forthcoming).
24. Google "Obama" in conjunction with any of these labels to see how routinely they are used- and defended-on the Internet.
25. David Barstow, "Tea Party Lights Fuse for Rebellion on Right," The New York Times, 16 February 2010.
26. In 19 surveys taken between January and October 2010, between 18 and 41 percent said they had a favorable view of the Tea Party movement (average, 32 percent). and from 12 to 50 percent had an unfavorable view of it (average, also 32 percent).
27. the rest were uncertain or did not know enough about it to have an opinion.
28. from NBC News/Wall Street Journal.
29. CBSNews/New York Times, Quinnipiac, Fox News, AP-GfK, and ABC News/Washington Post polls, accessed at http://www.pollingreport.com/ politics.htm, 7 November 2010.
30. Only 7 percent of Tea Party supporters in the April 5-12 CBS News/New York Times Poll approved of Obama's performance, 88 percent disapproved, and 92 percent said his policies were leading the country toward socialism.
31. see "Tea Party Movement: What they Think," accessed at http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_tea_party_041410.pdf, 15 April 2010.
32. Polls: 'Birther' Myth Persists Among Tea Partiers, All Americans," accessed at http://www. cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20002539-503544.html?tag5contentMain;contentBody, 15 April 2020.
33. the February ABC News/Washington Post Poll found 31 percent of Republicans and a like proportion of Tea Party sympathizers believing Obama was not United States-born; accessed at http://abcnews. go.com/PollingUnit/poll-half-birthers-call-suspicion-approve-obama/story?id510576748&page52, 10 October 2010.
34. asked in a July 2010 survey if Obama was born in the United States, only 23 percent of CNN's Republican Respondents said "definitely," 34 percent said "probably," 27 percent said "probably not," and 14 percent said "definitely not." The respective percentages for Democrats were 64, 21, 7, and 8; results accessed at http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/08/04/rel10k1a.pdf, 4 August 2010.
35. Growing Number of Americans Say Obama Is Muslim," Pew Survey Report, 19 August 2010, accessed at http://people-press.org/report/645/, 23 August 2010.
36. Eleven percent of Democrats and 17 percent of independents also thought he was a Muslim.
37. Time Magazine/Abt SRBI Poll: Religion, 16-17 August 2010, available from the Roper Center, University of Connecticut; secondary analysis by the author.
38. Gary C. Jacobson, "Perception, Memory, and Partisan Polarization on the Iraq War," Political Science Quarterly 125 (Spring 2010): 31-56.
39. Matthew J. Lebo and Daniel Cassino, "The Aggregated Consequences of Motivated Reasoning and the Dynamics of Partisan Presidential Approval," Political Psychology 28 (December 2007): 719-746.
40. Gary C. Jacobson, "Legislative Success and Political Failure: The Public's Reaction to Barack Obama's Early Presidency," Presidential Studies Quarterly 41 (Spring 2011): 219-242.
41. The data for 2010 are from ABC News/Washington Post, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, CBS News/New York Times, Pew, Gallup and AP-GfK surveys; for the sources of earlier data.
42. see Gary C. Jacobson, "Referendum: The 2006 Midterm Congressional Elections," Political Science Quarterly 122 (Spring 2007): 1-24.
43. Both are measured as the percentage of the major party vote, excluding third-party and independent candidates.
44. Regression of the Democrats' vote share on Obama's 2008 vote share produces nearly identical results for the House and Senate. Democratic House candidates are estimated to get 109 percent of Obama's vote, minus 10.7 percentage points.
45. Democratic Senate candidates are estimated to win 110 percent of Obama's vote, minus 11.3 percentage points.
46. Andrew Gelman and Gary King, "Measuring the Incumbency Advantage without Bias," American Journal of Political Science 34 (November 1990): 1142-1164.
47. John Alford and David R. Brady, Partisan and Incumbent Advantages in U.S. House Elections, 1846-1986.
48. (working paper no. 11, Center for the Study of Institutions and Values, Rice University, 1988).
49. The "sophomore surge" is the additional vote share won by candidates running as incumbents for the first time; the "retirement slump" is the loss of vote share a party suffers when its incumbent retires and the seat becomes open.
50. Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981), 19-34.
51. As always, experienced candidates found open seats to be attractive targets.
52. 58 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of Democrats running for open seats in 2010 had held elective public office.
53. Only 16 of Republican incumbents faced quality Democratic opponents, but experienced Democrats were also much more likely to show up in contests for the few Democratic-leaning seats held by Republicans (3 of 6) or in the competitive range (9 of 15) than to challenge Republican incumbents holding districts favorable to their party (16 of 135).
54. Gary C. Jacobson, "Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of House Elections, 1946-1986," American Political Science Review 83 (September 1989): 773-793.
55. Based on regression and probit equations reported in Table 7 with a categorical variable for prior political experience added.
56. Where the Tea Party Candidates are Running," The New York Times, 14 October 2010, accessed at http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/10/15/us/politics/tea-party-graphic.html, 21 October 2010.
57. "Tea Party Candidates of the 2010 Midterm Election," Fox News, 31 October 2010, accessed at http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/31/tea-party-candidates-midterm-election, 15 November 2010.
58. Rubio's strength forced moderate Republican Charlie Crist out of the party and into an independent campaign.
59. Angle lost to majority leader Harry Reid, whose unpopularity in Nevada would have doomed him against a challenger with less-extreme views; an eccentric perpetual candidate.
60. O'Donnell took the nomination from Mike Castle, a moderate who had won Delaware's at-large House seat with 62 percent of the vote in 2008. Buck was not quite as extreme (although he did, for example, propose to privatize the Veteran's Administration) and came much closer to victory.
61. Toomey also once served in the House, and Rubio was majority leader of the Florida House; the other three Tea Party winners were political newcomers.
62. Outside groups were also empowered by recent Supreme Court decisions in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, 130 Sup. Ct. 876 (2010).
63. Speech Now.org v. Federal Election Commission, 599 F. 3d 686 (D.C. Cir. 2010).
64. although how much this added to their total effort in 2010 is not yet clear.
65. The top spending group, American Crossroads ($387 million).
66. was organized by veteran Republican operatives Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie; the Chamber was second ($32.9 million). the American Action Network, whose board was composed largely of current and former Republican elected officials, was third ($23.9 million).
67. Data are through 4 November 2010, and the final numbers will be higher; data are from http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/PostElec2010_Table2_pdf, accessed 28 November 2010.
68. Based on figures reported at http://www.opensecrets.org/overview/index.php, accessed 28 November 2010.
69. Non-Party Spending Doubled in 2010 But Did Not Dictate the Results," Campaign Finance Institute, 5 November 2010, accessed at http://www.cfinst.org/Press/PReleases/10-11-05/Non-Party_Spending_Doubled_But_Did_Not_Dictate_Results.aspx, 28 November 2010.
70. Gary C. Jacobson, "A Collective Dilemma Solved: The Distribution of Party Campaign Resources in the 2006 and 2008 Congressional Elections," Election Law Journal 9 (December 2010): 381-397.
71. Data posted by the Center for Responsive Politics at http://www.opensecrets.org/news/selfcandidates1103.xls, accessed 28 November 2010.
72. Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, 558 U.S. 50 (2010).
73. The most recent estimate is that TARP's final cost to the treasury will be about $25 billion-a modest price if it helped avoid a replay of the 1930s.
74. see Ben Rooney, "TARP Cost Estimate Cut to $25 Billion, Says CBO," CNN, accessed at http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/30/news/economy/GAO_TARP_report, 30 November 2010.
75. The CBO estimated that the stimulus bill increased the number of full-time-equivalent jobs by between 1.7 million to 3.3 million and the GDP by from 1.7 to 4.5 percent compared to what would have occurred without the stimulus.
76. Congressional Budget Office, "Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output From April 2010 Through June 2010," August 2010, accessed at http://www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/collections.cfm?collect512, 15 November 2010.
77. Heidi Przybyla and John McCormick, "Poll Shows Voters Don't Know GDP Grew With Tax Cuts," Bloomberg Businessweek, 29 October 2010, accessed at http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-29/poll-shows-voters-don-t-know-gdp-grew-with-tax-cuts.html, 15 November 2010.
78. Typically, most people favor requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions, to continue to cover people who become sick, to provide subsidies so that poor families can buy insurance.
79. and requiring employers to provide health insurance to workers. The idea of universal coverage also generally wins majority support. But majorities also tended to oppose the components necessary to pay for these features: taxing the most-generous health care policies, limiting some Medicare reimbursements, and requiring everyone to buy health insurance (so that the risk pool is large enough) and enforcing this requirement through fines.
80. see the extensive compilation of survey questions and responses at http://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm, accessed 10 November 2010.
81. Obama Gets Small Bounce from Health Care Win, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Net Disapproval Drops 9 Points," accessed at http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID51437, 27 March 2010.
82. Katherine Q. Seelye, "Fighting Heath Care Overhaul, and Proud of It," The New York Times, 30 August 2009.
83. From averages of nine Gallup, CNN, and NBC News/Wall Street Journal Polls taken in 2010 and available for secondary analysis.
84. Remarkably, opinions of Obama and his health care proposals were even more tightly linked than were opinions of George W. Bush and the Iraq War (with an average consistency of about 85 percent).
85. see Gary C. Jacobson, "George W. Bush, Polarization, and the War in Iraq," in Colin Campbell, Bert A. Rockman, and Andrew Rudalevige, eds., The George W. Bush Legacy (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2008), 81.
86. The 2008 results are at http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main, accessed 26 November 2010.
87. the 2010 results are at http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls.main, accessed 26 November 2010.
88. There was no exit poll covering one of the Republican pickups (North Dakota), but John Hoeven won 76 percent of the vote overall, so it is safe to assume he also took a majority of independents.
89. Among the remaining 191 Democrats who sought reelection, the respective number of defectors was 2, 5, and 7 on these three bills.
90. Comparable equations for the remaining Democrats defending more-favorable partisan turf suggest that voting for health care was also a negative, again reducing the vote share by about 5 percentage points, but it had no significant effect on the probability of winning; none of the other votes had any significant effect in either equation, but as the previous note indicates, there was little variance in these votes.
91. For an account of the methodology for DW-Nominate.
92. see Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal, Congress: A Political-Economic History of Roll Call Voting (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), 3-57.
93. The data for the first year of the 111th Congress (2009) are available at the Keith T. Poole website, Votevew.com, accessed 15 November 2010.
94. Based on estimates from the regression of DW-Nominate scores on the district presidential vote for the first year of the 111th Congress.
95. Gary C. Jacobson, "The Obama and Anti-Obama Coalitions," in Bert A. Rockman and Andrew Rudalevige, eds., The Barack Obama Presidency: First Appraisals (Washington, DC: CQ Press, forthcoming).
96. First Thoughts: McConnell Doubles Down," accessed at http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/11/04/5407324-first-thoughts-mcconnell-doubles-down, 11 November 2010.
97. Jeffrey M. Jones, "Americans Prioritize Deficit Reduction as an Economic Strategy," Gallup Report, 30 November 2010, accessed at http://www.gallup.com/poll/144956/Americans-Prioritize- Deficit-Reduction-Economic-Strategy.aspx, 30 November 2010.
98. Jacobson, Politics of Congressional Elections, 15.
99. Nathan Gonzales, "The Right Rises at a Ripe Time," CQ Weekly, 8 November 2010, 2577.
100. Rue Teixeira, "Demographic Change and the Future of the Parties" (working paper, June 2010), at http://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/2010/06/pdf/voter_demographics.pdf, 30 November 2010.