The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation on Caribbean tropical cyclone activity

Journal of Climate

Volumn 24, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 721-731

  Klotzbach, Philip J ^a  

^a Engineering Research Center and Hydraulics Laboratory   (United States)

Author keywords

Atlantic Ocean; ENSO; Hurricanes; Multidecadal variability; Oscillations; Tropics

Indexed keywords

ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATIONS; ATLANTIC OCEAN; COLUMN STABILITY; ENSO; HURRICANE ACTIVITY; INTERANNUAL; MULTI-DECADAL TIME SCALE; MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY; OSCILLATIONS; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS; TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY; VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; WARM POOLS;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; LAKES; NICKEL COMPOUNDS; STORMS; TROPICS;

HURRICANES;

ANNUAL VARIATION; ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION; DECADAL VARIATION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; HURRICANE; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; CARIBBEAN SEA;

EID: 79953803435     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3705.1     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata, 2007: El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, doi:10.1029/2006JC003798.
2. Barnston, A. G., M. Chelliah, and S. B. Goldenberg, 1997: Documentation of a highly ENSO-related SST region in the equatorial Pacific. Atmos.-Ocean, 35, 367-383.
3. Bell, G. D., and Coauthors, 2000: Climate assessment for 1999. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, S1-S50.
4. Berg, R., 2009: Tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Ike. National Hurricane Center Rep., 55 pp.
5. Beven, J. L., 2004: Tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Frances. National Hurricane Center Rep., 28 pp.
6. Beven, J. L., and T. B. Kimberlain, 2009: Tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Gustav. National Hurricane Center Rep., 38 pp.
7. Bove, M. C., J. J. O'Brien, J. B. Elsner, C. W. Landsea, and X. Niu, 1998: Effect of El Niño on U.S. landfalling hurricanes, revisited. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 2477-2482.
8. Dong, B., R. T. Sutton, and A. A. Scaife, 2006: Multidecadal modulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08705, doi:10.1029/2006GL025766.
9. Elsner, J. B., and C. P. Schmertmann, 1993: Improving extendedrange seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 345-351.
10. Emanuel, K. A., 1986: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 585-604.
11. Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and P. J. Trimble, 2001: The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077-2080.
12. Goldenberg, S. B., and L. J. Shapiro, 1996: Physical mechanisms for the association of El Niño andWestAfrican rainfallwith Atlantic major hurricane activity. J. Climate, 9, 1169-1187.
13. Goldenberg, S. B., C. W. Landsea, A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and W. M. Gray, 2001: The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Science, 293, 474-479.
14. Gray, W. M., 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30-mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1649-1668.
15. Gray, W. M., J. D. Sheaffer, and C. W. Landsea, 1997: Climate trends associated with multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity. Hurricanes: Climate and Socioeconomic Impacts, H. F. Diaz and R. S. Pulwarty, Eds., Springer-Verlag, 15-53.
16. Grossmann, I., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2009: A review of North Atlantic modes of natural variability and their driving mechanisms. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D24107, doi:10.1029/2009JD012728.
17. Guiney, J. L., and M. B. Lawrence, 1999: Tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Mitch. National Hurricane Center Rep., 19 pp.
18. Jarvinen, B. R., C. J. Neumann, and M. A. S. Davis, 1984: A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic basin, 1886-1983: Contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 22, 21 pp.
19. Kistler, R., and Coauthors, 2001: The NCEP-NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 247-267.
20. Klotzbach, P. J., 2007: Revised prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity from 1 August. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 937-949.
21. Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2008: Multidecadal variability in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 21, 3929-3935.
22. Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2009: Extended range forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and landfall strike probability for 2010. Colorado State University Dept. of Atmospheric Science Rep., 34 pp.
23. Knutson, T. R., and Coauthors, 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat. Geosci., 3, 157-163, doi:10.1038/ngeo779.
24. Kossin, J. P., and D. J. Vimont, 2007: A more general framework for understanding Atlantic hurricane variability and trends. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1767-1781.
25. Landsea, C. W., and Coauthors, 2004: The Atlantic hurricane database re-analysis project: Documentation for the 1851-1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database. Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present and Future, R. J. Murnane and K.-B. Liu, Eds., Columbia University Press, 177-221.
26. Landsea, C. W., B. A. Harper, K. Hoarau, and J. Knaff, 2006: Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science, 313, 452-454, doi:10.1126/science.1128448.
27. Landsea, C. W., and Coauthors, 2008: A reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic hurricane database. J. Climate, 21, 2138-2168.
28. Pielke, R. A., Jr., and C. W. Landsea, 1999: La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic hurricane damages in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 2027-2033.
29. Rappaport, E. N., and J. Fernandez-Partagas, 1994: The deadliest Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1492-1994. NOAA Tech. Memo. 4, 42 pp.
30. Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, 1982: Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 354-384.
31. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Holland, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
32. Saunders, M. A., and A. S. Lea, 2008: Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity. Nature, 451, 557-560, doi:10.1038/nature06422.
33. Smith, S. R., J. Brolley, J. J. O'Brien, and C. A. Tartaglione, 2007: ENSO's impact on regional U.S. hurricane activity. J. Climate, 20, 1404-1414.
34. Tang, B. H., and J. D. Neelin, 2004: ENSO influence on Atlantic hurricanes via tropospheric warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24204, doi:10.1029/2004GL021072.
35. Tartaglione, C. A., S. R. Smith, and J. J. O'Brien, 2003: ENSO impact on hurricane landfall probabilities for the Caribbean. J. Climate, 26, 2925-2931.
36. Timmermann, A., S.-I. An, U. Krebs, and H. Goosse, 2005: ENSO suppression due to weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J. Climate, 18, 3122-3139.
37. Vimont, D. J., and J. P. Kossin, 2007: The Atlantic Meridional Mode and hurricane activity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07709, doi:10.1029/2006GL029683.
38. Wallace, J. M., T. P. Mitchell, E. M. Rasmusson, V. E. Kousky, E. S. Sarachik, and H. von Storch, 1998: On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Lessons from TOGA. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 241-14 259.
39. Wang, C., and S.-K. Lee, 2007: Atlantic warm pool, Caribbean lowlevel jet, and their potential impact on Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02703, doi:10.1029/2006GL028579.
40. Wang, C., S.-K. Lee, and D. B. Enfield, 2008: Atlantic warm pool acting as a link between Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9, Q05V03, doi:10.1029/2007GC001809.
41. Wilson, R.M., 1999: Statistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes in theAtlantic basin during the past 49 hurricane seasons (1950-1998): Implications for the current season. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2957-2960.