Global warming and the Arab spring

Survival

Volumn 53, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 11-17

  Johnstone, Sarah ^a   Mazo, Jefrey ^a  

^a IISS ^*  (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 79953712612     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: 14682699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571006     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. See CNA Corporation, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (Alexandria, VA: The CNA Corporation, 2007);
2. Council of the European Union, Climate Change and International Security, Report from the Commission and the Secretary- General/High Representative to the European Council, 7249/08, Brussels, 3 March 2008;
3. US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February 2010, p. 84.
4. The framework here is the so-called 'INUS', or 'insufficient but necessary to the unnecessary but sufficient', model of causality. A given factor is insufficient on its own, but is a necessary component of a particular set of circumstances that might cause an event. That set of circumstances, in turn, is sufficient to cause the event, not necessary, since many different sets of circumstances involving different factors might also have sufficed. For the INUS model.
5. J.L. Mackie, 'Causes and Conditions', American Philosophical Quarterly, vol. 2, 1965, pp. 245-65.
6. World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Elements, no. 478, 12 January 2010, htp://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/wasde/2010s/2010/wasde-01-12-2010.pdf.
7. 'IGC Lifts Wheat Estimate as Crops Avoid Winterkill', Agrimony, 25 February 2010, htp://www.agrimoney.com/news/igc-lifts-wheat-estimate-as-crops-avoid-winterkill--1396.html.
8. 'Global Wheat Supply Forecast Cut', BBC News, 12 August 2010, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10956219.
9. Fiona Bond, 'Are Soaring Wheat Prices a Storm in a Teacup?', Moneywise, 25 August 2010, http://www.moneywise.co.uk/news-views/2010/08/25/are-soaring-wheat-prices-storm-teacup.
10. Luzi Ann Javier, 'Wheat Rises on Russian Export Ban; Mozambique Riots for Bread', Bloomberg, 3 September 2010.
11. 'Russian Ban on Grain Export Begins', BBC News, 15 August 2010, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10977955.
12. 'Ukraine: Grain Export Quotas to Come into Force', Uriadovyi Courier, 19 October 2010, available at http://www.bakenet.eu/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=2267.
13. Ignacio Moras, 'Argentina: Soybean and Corn Crops Sufering from Drought', Infosurhoy. com, 7 February 2011;
14. Archie Bland, 'Meanwhile, Drought hits Argentina Food Production', Independent, 13 January 2011;
15. Bruce Hextall, 'Australia Wheat Quality Slumps in Biter-sweet Harvest', Reuters, 4 January 2011. For La Niña see http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html.
16. 'Global Wheat Supply Forecast Cut'; United States Department of Agriculture, 'World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates', Report no. 485, 12 August 2010;
17. 'Evening Markets: Stocks Rise Overshadows Mega Wheat Exports', Agrimoney, 10 September 2010; USDA WASDE Report no. 486, 10 September 2010.
18. Bruce Hextall, 'Australia's Sugar Crop Faces Serious Cyclone Threat', Reuters, 1 February 2011; http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=sugar.
19. Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, available at http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/;
20. 'The Simmering Food Crisis: Global Financial Woes Could Trigger Further Unrest, IISS Strategic Communications, vol. 14, no. 9, November 2008, http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-9/the-simmering-food-crisis/.
21. Clemens Breisinger et al., Food Security and Economic Development in the Middle East and North Africa, discussion paper 00985 (Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2010);
22. Heba Saleh and Javier Blas, 'Mideast and N Africa Seek Fresh Grain Supplies', Financial Times, 11 August 2010.
23. Larry Elliot, 'World Bank Warns of Soaring Food Price Dangers', Guardian, 15 February 2011.
24. Personal (SJ) communication by phone, February 2011.
25. Mary Curtis, Richard Kersley and Mujtaba Rana, Emergying Consumer Survey 2011 (Zurich: Credit Suisse Research Institute, 2011); Personal (SJ) communication by phone with Dr Omneia Helmy, February 2011.
26. Personal (SJ) communication by phone, February 2011.
27. 'The Coming Surge in Food Prices', Nomura Global Economics and Strategy, September 2010, http://www.nomura.com/research/getpub.aspx?pid=390252.
28. 'Latin America: Some Countries Vulnerable to High Food Prices', World Bank, 16 February 2011, avail able at http://web.worldbank.org/.
29. Personal (SJ) communication by phone, London, February 2011;
30. Nicholas Larkin, 'Food Riots Threaten Latin America on Surging Commodities in UN Assessment', Bloomberg, 16 February 2011;
31. Jacob Goldstein, 'Why Are Food Prices Going Crazy?', NPR, 16 February 2011.
32. The Coming Surge in Food Prices, p. 26.