Extending the use of scenario planning and MCDA for the evaluation of strategic options

Journal of the Operational Research Society

Volumn 62, Issue 5, 2011, Pages 817-829

  Ram, C ^a   Montibeller, G ^a   Morton, A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Decision analysis; scenario; strategic planning

Indexed keywords

DECISION THEORY; FOOD SUPPLY; STRATEGIC PLANNING;

FOOD SECURITY; MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS; SCENARIO; SCENARIO PLANNING; STRATEGIC OPTIONS; TIME-EFFICIENT; TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO;

DECISION MAKING;

EID: 79953663841     PISSN: 01605682     EISSN: 14769360     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1057/jors.2010.90     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Belton V and Stewart TJ (2002). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht.
2. Bertsch V (2008). Uncertainty handling in multi-attribute decision support for industrial risk management. Dissertation, University of Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe University Press, .uni-karlsruhe.de/volltexte/1000007378 (accessed 12 January 2010).
3. Chermack TJ (2004). Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures 36: 295-309. (Pubitemid 38122855)
4. Coyle G (2007). Practical Strategy: Structured Tools and Techniques. Pearson Education Limited: Harlow.
5. De Geus A (1988). Planning as learning. Harvard Bus Rev 66(2): 70-74.
6. De Geus A (1999). The Living Company: Growth Learning and Longevity in Business. Nicholas Brealey Publishing: London.
7. Dias LC (2006). A note on the role of robustness analysis in decision-aiding processes. http://www.inesc.fe.uc.pt/documentos/RR2006-02.pdf, accessed 28 January 2009.
8. Durbach I and Stewart TJ (2003). Integrating scenario planning and goal programming. J Multi-Criteria Decis Anal 12(4-5): 261-271.
9. Eden C and Ackermann F (1998). Making Strategy: The Journey of Strategic Management. Sage: London.
10. Eden C, Ackermann F, Bryson JM, Richardson GP, Andersen DF and Finn CB (2009). Integrating models of policy analysis and strategic management practice: Requisite elements and dilemmas. J Opl Res Soc 60: 2-13.
11. French S (1986). Decision Theory: An Introduction to the Mathematics of Rationality. Ellis Horwood: Chichester.
12. Friend J (1989). The strategic choice approach. In: Rosenhead J (ed). Rational Analysis for a Problematic World: Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity, Uncertainty and Conflict. John Wiley & Sons: Chichester, pp 71-100.
13. Godet M and Roubelat F (1996). Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios. Long Range Plann 29: 164-171. (Pubitemid 126403016)
14. Goodwin P and Wright G (2001). Enhancing strategy evaluation in scenario planning: A role for decision analysis. J Mngt Stud 38(1): 1-16.
15. Gordon A (2008). Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change. Amacom: New York.
16. Howard RA (1988). Decision analysis: Practice and promise. Mngt Sci 34: 679-695.
17. Huss WR and Honton EJ (1987). Scenario planning-What style should you use? Long Range Plann 20(4): 21-29.
18. Karvetski CW, Lambert JH and Linkov I (2010). Emergent conditions and multiple criteria analysis in infrastructure prioritization for developing countries. J Multi-Criteria Decis Anal, .
19. Keeney RL (1992). Value Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking. Harvard University Press: Cambridge, MA.
20. Keeney RL and Raiffa H (1993). Decisions withMultiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
21. Keeney RL and von Winterfeldt D (2007). Practical value models. In: Edwards W, Miles RF and vonWinterfeldt D (eds). Advances in Decision Analysis-From Foundations to Applications. Cambridge University Press: New York, pp 232-252.
22. Klayman J and Schoemaker PJH (1993). Thinking about the future: A cognitive perspective. J Forecasting 12: 161-168.
23. Leemhuis JP (1985). Using scenarios to develop strategies. Long Range Plan 18: 30-37.
24. Lempert RJ, Groves DG, Popper SW and Bankes SC (2006). A general analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios. Mngt Sci 52: 514-528.
25. Mietzner D and Reger D (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. Int J Technol Intell Plann 1: 220-239.
26. Millett SM (1988). How scenarios trigger strategic thinking. Long Range Plann 21(5): 61-68.
27. Mingers J and Rosenhead J (2001). Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited. John Wiley & Sons: Chichester, pp 187-188.
28. Ministry of Food Production and Marine Resources (2001). Sector policy for food production and marine resources. http://www.agriculture.gov.tt/ applicationloader.asp?app=doc-lib-details&id=68accessed 14 December 2008.
29. Montibeller G, Gummer H and Tumidei D (2006). Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice. J Multi-Criteria Decis Anal 14: 5-20.
30. Morgan MG, Kandlikar M, Risbey J and Dowlatabadi H (1999). Why conventional tools for policy analysis are often inadequate for problems of global change. Climatic Change 41: 271-281. (Pubitemid 29275887)
31. Parnell GS, Jackson JA, Burk RC, Lehmkuhl LJ and Engelbrecht Jr. JA (1999). R&D concept decision analysis: Using alternate futures for sensitivity analysis. J Multi-Criteria Decis Anal 8: 119-127.
32. Phillips LD (1986). Decision analysis and its applications in industry. In: Mitra G (ed). Computer Assisted Decision Making. Elsevier Science Publishers: Amsterdam, pp 189-197.
33. Pomerol J (2001). Scenario development and practical decision making under uncertainty. Decis Support Syst 31: 197-204. (Pubitemid 32426709)
34. Ringland G (1998). Scenario Planning-Managing for the Future. John Wiley & Sons: Chichester.
35. Ritchey T (2006). Problem structuring using computer-aided morphological analysis. J Opl Res Soc 57: 792-801. (Pubitemid 43980367)
36. Rosenhead J, Elton M and Gupta SK (1972). Robustness and optimality as criteria for strategic decisions. Opl Res Quart 23: 413-431.
37. Roy B (1998). A missing link in OR-DA: Robustness analysis. Found Comput Decis Sci 23: 141-160.
38. Roy B (2010). Robustness in operational research and decision aiding: A multi-faceted issue. Eur J Opl Res 200: 629-638.
39. Schilling DA, Revelle C and Cohon J (1983). An approach to the display and analysis of multiobjective problems. Socio Econ Plan Sci 17(2): 57-63.
40. Schoemaker PJH (1991). When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration. J Forecasting 10: 549-564.
41. Schoemaker PJH (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Mngt Rev 36(2): 25-39.
42. Schwartz P and Ogilvy JA (1998). Plotting your scenarios. In: Fahey L and Randall RM (eds). Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios Advantage through Scenario Planning. John Wiley & Sons: New York, pp 57-80.
43. Stewart TJ (1997). Scenario analysis and multicriteria decision making. In: Climaco J (ed). Multicriteria Analysis. Springer: Berlin, pp 519-528.
44. Stewart TJ (2005). Dealing with uncertainties in MCDA. In: Figueira J, Greco S and Ehrgott M (eds). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys. Springer:New York, pp 445-470.
45. Stewart TJ and Scott L (1995). A scenario-based framework for multi-criteria decision analysis in water resources planning. Water Resour Res 31: 2835-2843. (Pubitemid 26434980)
46. Tietje O (2005). Identification of a small reliable and efficient set of consistent scenarios. Eur J Opl Res 162: 418-432.
47. Van der Heijden K (1996). The Art of Strategic Conversation. John Wiley & Sons: Chichester.
48. Wack P (1985a). Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Bus Rev 63(5): 72-89.
49. Wack P (1985b). Scenarios: Shooting the rapids. Harvard Bus Rev 63(6): 139-150.
50. Wollenberg E, Edmunds D and Buck L (2000). Using scenarios to make decisions about the future: Anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of community forests. Landscape Urban Plan 47(1-2): 65-77. (Pubitemid 30081119)
51. Wright G and Goodwin P (1999). Future-focused thinking: Combining scenario planning with decision analysis. J Multi- Criteria Decis Anal 8: 311-321.
52. Wright G and Goodwin P (2009). Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method. Int J Forecasting 25: 813-825.
53. Yin RK (2008). Case Study Research: Design and Methods, 4th edn. Sage: Thousand Oaks, CA.
54. Zeelenberg M (1999). Anticipated regret, expected feedback and behavioral decision making. J Behav Decis Making 12: 93-106.