Dealing with uncertainty in design of port infrastructure systems

Journal of Design Research

Volumn 8, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 101-118

  Taneja, P ^a   Ligteringen, H ^a   van Schuylenburg, M ^b  

^a DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

^b PORT OF ROTTERDAM AUTHORITY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

adaptive planning; containers; design; dynamic strategic planning; flexibility; infrastructures; planning; port; uncertainty

Indexed keywords

EID: 79952875836     PISSN: 17483050     EISSN: 15691551     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1504/JDR.2010.032073     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Burghouwt, G. (2007) Airline Network Development in Europe and Its Implications for Airport Planning. Burlington, USA: Ashgate Publishing Company.
2. Chiara, N., Garvin, M.J. and Vecer, J. (2007) ‘Valuing simple multiple-exercise real options in infrastructure projects’, Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp.97–104.
3. Collingridge D. and James P. (1991) ‘Inflexible energy policies in a rapidly-changing market’, Long Range Planning, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp.101–107.
4. CUR (2005) Handbook Quay Walls. Gouda: Centre for Civil Engineering Research and Codes.
5. de Kruif, F. (2009) ‘Top-10 port projects’, Nieuwsblad Transport, Vol. 22, Week 18, April 2009.
6. de Neufville, R. (2000) ‘Dynamic strategic planning for technology policy’, Int. J. Technology Management, Vol. 19, Nos. 3/4/5, pp.225–245.
7. de Neufville, R. (2002) ‘Architecting/designing engineering systems using real options’, Monograph, Engineering Systems Division Internal Symposium, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA.
8. de Weck, O., Eckert, C. and Clarkson, J. (2007) ‘A classification of uncertainty for early product and system design’, International Conference of Engineering Design ICED ‘07, 28-31 August, Paris, France.
9. Dempsey, S.P., Goetz, A.R. and Szyliowicz, J.S. (1997) Denver International Airport: Lessons Learned. New York: McGraw-Hill.
10. FAMAS MV2 (2001) A Vision for Container Logistics in the Port of Rotterdam. Delft: CONNEKT.
11. Flyvbjerg, B., Bruzelius N. and Rothengatter W. (2003) Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
12. Hastings, D. and McManus, H. (2004) ‘A framework for understanding uncertainty and its mitigation and exploitation in complex systems’, MIT Engineering Systems Symposium, March 2004, Cambridge, MA.
13. HWWI and Berenberg Bank (2007) Strategy 2030: Maritime trade and Transport Logistics. Hamburg: Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Institut.
14. Kamperlaan, E. (2005) ‘Showcase megaproject management: Maasvlakte 2’, ProjectManager Magazine, March 2005, pp.12–17.
15. Klein R.M. (2007) ‘Great Grandfather’s Schlieffen Plan’, Joint Force Quality, Issue 45, 2nd quarter 2007, Available at: http://www.ndu.edu/inss/Press/jfq_pages/i45.htm. Accessed on 19 July 2009.
16. Kwakkel, J., Walker, W.E. and Marchau, V.A.W.J. (2008) ‘Adaptive airport strategic planning’, In H.J. van Zuylen and A.J. van Binsbergen (Eds.), 10th International TRAIL Congress, Selected Papers. Delft: Trail Research School.
17. Labrut, M. (2009) ‘Making history: Panama report’, Dredging and Port Construction Magazine, May 2009, pp.16–47.
18. Lempert, R.J., Popper, S.W. and Bankes, S.C. (2003) Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.
19. Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (2009) ‘MPA – Port Statistics’, Available at: http://www.mpa.gov.sg/sites/global_navigation/publications/port_statistics/port_statistics.page. Accessed on 17 July 2009.
20. McCalla, R.J. (1999) ‘Global change, local pain: intermodal seaport terminals and their service areas’, Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 7, pp.247–254.
21. Murillo, D.G.C. (2009) ‘Economies of scale in mega container ships at port’, Conference Critical Issues in Port and Maritime Sector, WCTRS, 7-8 May, Antwerp.
22. National Research Council (1987) Infrastructure for the 21st Century. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
23. Pahl-Wostl, C., et al. (2005) ‘Transition to adaptive water management: the new water project’, NeWater Working Paper 1, NeWater.
24. Penfold, A. (2005) ‘Changes in the shipping industry’, Life Cycle Approach in Port Infrastructure, Proceedings PIANC Seminar, 2 February 2005, Brussels.
25. Pinder, D. and Slack, B. (Ed.) (2004) Shipping and Ports in the Twenty First Century. London: Routledge.
26. Podevins, O. (2009) ‘Container and terminal shipping industry from a banking perspective (2008-2015)’, Conference Critical Issues in the Port and Maritime Sector, WCTRS, 7-8 May, Antwerp.
27. Port of Rotterdam Authority (2009) ‘Throughput in Port of Rotterdam Bottoms out, Available at: http://www.portofrotterdam.com/en/news/pressreleases/2009/20090715_77.jsp. Accessed on 17 July 2009.
28. Raad voor verkeer en waterstaat (RVW) (2009) Witte Zwanen, Zwarte Zwanen, ISBN/EAN: 978-90-77323-17-5.
29. RAND (1997) ‘Adaptive policies, policy analysis and civil aviation policymaking’, DRU-1514-VW/VROM/EZ, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.
30. RITA, Research and Innovative Technology Administration (2009) Effects of Drop in Container Throughput, Available at: http://www.bts.gov/publications/americas_container_ports/2009/html/drop_in_container_throughput.html. Accessed on 17 July 2009.
31. Roos, D., de Neufville, R., Moavenzadeh, F. and Connors, S. (2004) ‘The design and development of next generation infrastructure systems’, IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 10-13 October 2004, The Hague, The Netherlands.
32. Saleh, J.H., Hastings, D.E. and Newman, D.J. (2003) ‘Flexibility in system design and implications for aerospace systems’, Acta Astronautica, Vol. 53, pp.927–944.
33. Selkou, E. and Roe, M. (2004) ‘Globalization, policy and shipping: fordism, post-fordism and the European Union Maritime Sector’, Economic Geography, Vol. 82, No. 4, pp.457–459.
34. UNCTAD (2005) Regional Shipping and Port Development Strategies. New York: Container Traffic Forecasts.
35. Van de Voorde, E. and Winkelmans, W. (2002) ‘A general introduction to port competition and management’, In M. Huybrechts, E. Van de Voorde, E. Van Hooydonk, A. Verbeke and W. Winkelmans W. (Eds.), Port Competitiveness, Antwerp: De Boeck Ltd.
36. Von Storch, H., Tol, R.S.J. and Floeser, G. (Eds.) (2008) Environmental Crises: Science and Policy. Berlin: Springer.
37. Wang, T. and de Neufville, R. (2005) ‘Real options in projects’, 9th Real Options Annual International Conference, June 2005 Paris, France.
38. Walker, W.E., Rahman, S.J. and Cave J. (2001) ‘Adaptive policies, policy analysis and policymaking’, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 128, No. 2, pp.282–289.
39. Walker, W.E., Harremoës, P., Rotmans, J., van der Sluijs, J.P., van Asselt, M.B.A., Janssen, P. and Krayer von Krauss, M.P. (2003) ‘Defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support’, Integrated Assessment, Vol. 4, pp.5–17.
40. WorldCargo News (2009) Koreans Developing Floating Harbour, Available at: http://www.worldcargonews.com/htm/t20090522.817871.htm. Accessed on 17 July 2009.
41. TEU: 20 foot equivalent unit, 1 TEU is a container 20 feet long.
42. Qualitative models also called subjective or judgemental models have been developed for traffic forecasting for long-term planning. But in order to use these techniques, one also needs to apply some judgemental value for technology forecasting, policy and planning level decisions in the parameters.
43. DWT: dead weight tons. It is the weight of the ship without fuel, cargo or crew aboard.