Modeling the hydrologic responses of the Pampanga River basin, Philippines: A quantitative approach for identifying droughts

Water Resources Research

Volumn 47, Issue 3, 2011, Pages

  Jaranilla Sanchez, Patricia Ann ^a   Wang, Lei ^a   Koike, Toshio ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES; BASIN SCALE; CROP PRODUCTION; CROP SCHEDULING; DRIVING FORCES; DROUGHT INDICES; ECONOMIC LOSS; HOT SPOT; HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE; HYDROLOGICAL PARAMETERS; MANAGEMENT PLANNING; PHILIPPINES; QUANTITATIVE APPROACH; RIVER BASINS; SEASONAL DIFFERENCES; SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY; TEMPORAL VARIATION; TIME LAG; WATER AND ENERGIES; WATER SECTOR; WATER SOURCE;

CROPS; CULTIVATION; GROUNDWATER; NICKEL COMPOUNDS; PLANNING; SOIL MOISTURE; WATER RESOURCES; WATER SUPPLY; WATERSHEDS;

DROUGHT;

BASIN MANAGEMENT; CROP PRODUCTION; DROUGHT; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GROUNDWATER RESOURCE; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; RAINFALL; RICE; SOIL MOISTURE; STREAMFLOW; VULNERABILITY; WATER RESOURCE;

LUZON; PAMPANGA BASIN; PHILIPPINES;

EID: 79952749147     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2010WR009702     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Anderson, W. P. Jr., and R. E. Emanuel (2008), Effect of interannual and interdecadal climate oscillations on groundwater in North Carolina, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L23402, doi:10.1029/2008GL036054.
2. Akaike, H. (1974), A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE T. Automat. Contr., 9(6), doi:10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705.
3. Berri, G. (2002), The influence of ENSO in the flows of the upper Parana River of South America over the past 100 years, J. Hydrometeorol., 3, 57-65.
4. Bhalme, H. N., and D. A. Mooley (1980), Large-scale droughts/floods and monsoon circulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 1197-1211.
5. Bouman, B., et al. (2007), Rice: Feeding the billions, in Water for Food, Water for Life: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, pp. 515-546, edited by D. Molden, pp. 515-549, Earthscan, London.
6. Brunner, A. D. (2002), El Niño and world primary commodity prices: Warm water or hot air?, Rev. Econ. Stat., 84(1), 176-183.
7. Byun, H., and D. A. Wilhite (1999), Objective quantification of drought severity and duration, J. Clim., 12, 2747-2756. (Pubitemid 30039775)
8. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (2010), EM-DAT: International Disaster Database, Univ. Cathol. de Louvain, Brussels. (Available at http://www.emdat.be)
9. Cruz, R. V., H. Harasawa, M. Lal, S. Wu, Y. Anokhin, B. Punsalmaa, Y. Honda, M. Jafari, C. Li, and N. Huu Ninh (2007), Asia, in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by M.L. Parry et al., pp. 469-506, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
10. Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. Qian (2004), A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 1117-1130. (Pubitemid 40112597)
11. Dawe, D., P. Moya, and S. Valencia (2009), Institutional, policy and farmer responses to drought: El Niño events and rice in the Philippines, Disasters, 33(2), 291-307, doi:10.1111/j.0361-3666.2008.01075.x.
12. Department of Environment and Natural Resources (1999), The Philippines' initial national communication on climate change, Manila, Philippines.
13. Dracup, J. A., K. S. Lee, and E. G. Paulson Jr. (1980), On the definition of droughts, Water Resour. Res., 16 (2), 297-302.
14. Duong, L. C. (2000), Lessons from severe tropical storm Linda, paper present at Workshop of the Impact of El Niño and La Niña on Southeast Asia, Cent. for Environ. Res. Educ. and Dev., Hanoi, Vietnam. 21-23 Feb.
15. Easterling, W. E., et al. (2007), Food, fibre and forest products, in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by M. L. Parry et al., pp. 273-313, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
16. Fleig, A. K., L. M. Tallaksen, H. Hisdal, and S. Demuth (2006), A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 535-552. (Pubitemid 44100533)
17. Food and Agricultural Organization (2003), Digital soil map of the world and derived soil properties, Land Water Digital Media Ser. 1 [CRROM], Rome. (Available at http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/lwdms.stm)
18. Frappart, F., F. Papa, J. S. Familietti, C. Prigent, W. B. Rossow, and F. Seyler (2008), Interannual variations of river water storage from a multiple satellite approach: A case study for the Rio Negro basin, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D21104, doi:10.1029/2007JD009438.
19. Gibbs, W. J., and J. V. Maher (1967), Rainfall deciles as drought indicators, Bull. 48, Bur. of Meteorol., Melbourne, Vic., Australia.
20. Glantz, M. H. (Ed.) (2001), Once Burned, Twice Shy? Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Niño, U. N. Univ., Tokyo.
21. Haddad, K., and A. Rahman (2010), Selection of the best fit flood frequency distribution and parameter estimation procedure: a case study for Tasmania in Australia, Stochast. Environ. Res. Risk Assess, doi:10.1007/s00477- 010-0412-1.
22. Hollinger, S. E., S. A. Isard, and M. R. Welford (1993), A new soil moisture drought Index for predicting crop yields, paper presented at 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Am. Math. Soc., Anaheim, Calif.
23. Hossain, M., F. Gascon, and E. Marciano (2000), Income distribution and poverty in rural Philippines: Insight from repeat village study, Econ. Polit. Weekly, 35, 52-53.
24. Huschke, R.E. (Ed.) (1959), Glossary of Meteorology, Am. Meteorol. Soc., Boston.
25. Jaranilla-Sanchez, P. A., L. Wang, and T. Koike (2009), ENSO Influence on the 1982-2000 Hydrological Properties of the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed, Annu. J. Hydraul Eng., 54, 19-24.
26. Jose, A. M., L. M. Sosa, and N. A. Cruz (1996), Vulnerability assessment of Angat Water Reservoir to climate change, Water, Air, Soil Pollut., 92, 191-201.
27. Kao, S. H., and R. S. Govindaraju (2010), A copula-based joint deficit index for droughts, J. Hydrol., 380, doi:10.1016/j.hydrol.2009.10.029.
28. Kelly, P. M., and W. N. Adger (2000), Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to clim. change and facilitating adaptation, Clim. Change, 47, 325-352.
29. Keyantash, J., and J. A. Dracup (2002), The quantification of drought: An evaluation of drought indices, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 1167-1180. (Pubitemid 35173647)
30. Kim, D. W., H. R. Byun, and K. S. Choi (2009), Evaluation, modification and application of the Effective Drought Index to 200-year drought climatology of Seoul, Korea, J. Hydrol., 378, 1-12, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.021.
31. Kumar, K. K., B. Rajagopalan, M. Hoerling, G. Bates, and M. Cane (2006), Unravelling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño, Science, 314, 115-119. (Pubitemid 44547753)
32. Lasco, R. D., R. V. O. Cruz, J. M. Pulhin, and F. B. Pulhin (2010), Assessing climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: The case of the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed, World Agrofor. Cent. and College of For. and Nat. Resour., Univ. of the Philippines, Los Baños, Philippines.
33. Linsley, R. K., M. A. Kohler, and J. L. Paulhus (1988), Hydrology for Engineers, McGraw-Hill, New York.
34. Luo, L., and E. F. Wood (2007), Monitoring and predicting the 2007 US drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22702, doi:10.1029/2007GL031673.
35. Lyon, B., H. Cristi, E. R. Verceles, F. D. Hilario, and R. Abastillas (2006), Seasonal reversal of the ENSO rainfall signal in the Philippines, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24710, doi:10.1029/2006GL028182.
36. Maraseni, T. N., S. Mushtaq, M. Hafeez, and J. Maroulis (2010), Greenhouse gas implications of water reuse in the Upper Pampanga River Integrated Irrigation System, Philippines, Agron. Water Management, 97, 382-388.
37. McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist (1993), The relationship of drought frequency and duration to timescales, paper presented at 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Am. Meteorol. Soc., Anaheim, Calif.
38. Meeker, W. Q., L. A. Escobar, and W. Q. Meeder (1998), Statistical Methods for Reliability Data, Wiley, New York.
39. Meyer, S. J., K. G. Hubbard, and D. A. Wilhite (1993), The development of a crop specific drought index for corn. Part I: Model development and validation, Agron. J., 85, 388-395.
40. Mishra, V., and K. A. Cherkauer (2010), Retrospective droughts in crop growing season: Implications to corn and soybean yield in the Midwestern United States, Agric. For. Meteorol., 150, 1030-1045.
41. Mo, K. C., J. E. Schemm, and S. Yoo (2009), Influence of ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on drought over the United States, J. Clim., 22, 5962-5982, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2966.1.
42. Myneni, R. B., R. R. Nemani, and S. W. Running (1997), Estimation of global leaf area index and absorped par using radiative transfer models, IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote, 35, 1380-1393. (Pubitemid 127771175)
43. Nash, J. E., and I. V. Sutcliffe (1970), River Flow Forecasting through Conceptual Models Part I - A discussion of Principles, J. Hydrol, 10, 282-290.
44. National Census and Statistics Office (1971), Cropland distribution: Pampanga River basins, 136 pp., Census of Agric., Bur. of Soil and Water Manag., Quezon City, Philippines.
45. Onogi, K., et al. (2007), The JRA-25 reanalysis, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn, 85(3), 369-432. (Pubitemid 47278749)
46. Palmer, W. C. (1965), Meteorological drought, Res. Pap. 45, Off. of Climatol., U.S. Weather Bur., Washington, D. C.
47. Pandey, S., H. Bhandari, and B. Hardy (Eds.) (2007), Economic costs of drought and rice farmers' coping mechanisms: a cross-country comparative analysis, Los Baños (Philippines), Int. Rice Res. Inst., Los Baños, Philippines.
48. Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services (2001), Documentation and analysis of impacts of and responses to extreme climate events, Tech. Pap. 2001-2, Climatol. and Agrometeorol. Br., Quezon City, Philippines.
49. Philippine Institute for Developmental Studies (2007), El Niño/La Niña, Econ. Issue Day, 7(1).
50. Roberts, M., D. Dawe, W. P. Falcon, and R. L. Naylor (2008), Notes and Correspondence El Niño-Southern Oscillation Impacts on Rice Production in Luzon, the Philippines, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 48, doi:10.1175/2008JAMC1628. 1.
51. Rockstrom, J., J. Barron, and P. Fox (2003), Water productivity in rain-fed agriculture: Challenges and opportunities for smallholder farmers in drought-prone tropical agroecosystems, in Water Productivity in Agriculture: Limits and Opportunities for Improvement, edited by J. W. Kijne, R. Barker, and D. Molden, pp. 145-162, CAB Int./IWMI, Cambridge, U. K.
52. Sellers, P. J., D. A. Randall, G. J. Collatz, J. A. Berry, C. B. Field, D. A. Dazlich, C. Zhang, G. D. Collelo, and L. Bounoua, (1996), A revised land surface parameterization (SiB2) for atmospheric GCMs, Part I: Model formulation, J. Clim., 9, 676-705.
53. Sheffield, J., G. Goteti, F. Wen, and E. F. Wood (2004), A simulated soil moisture based drought analysis for the United States, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D24108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005182.
54. Simelton, E., E. D. G. Graser, M. Termansen, P. M. Forster, and A. J. Dougill (2009), Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability: an empirical analysis of the socio-economic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961-2009), Environ. Sci. Policy., 12, 438-452.
55. Smakhtin, V. U., and D. A. Hughes (2006), Automated estimation and analyses of meteorological drought characteristics of monthly rainfall data, Environ. Model. Software, 22, 880-890. (Pubitemid 46201779)
56. Solomon, S., et al. (2007), Technical summary, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., pp. 19-91, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
57. Steyaert, L. T., A. V. Rao, and A. V. Todorov (1981), Agroclimatic assessment methods for drought/flood strategies in South and Southeast Asia, U.S. Agency for Int. Dev., Washington, D. C.
58. Trenberth, K. E. (1997), The definition of El Niño, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78(12), 2771-2777.
59. U.S. Department of Agriculture (2005), Drought continues in Southeast Asia: A crop production assessment report, Prod. Estimates and Crop Assess. Div., Foreign Agric. Serv., Washington, D. C.
60. Van Genuchten, M. T. (1980), A closed-form equation for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 44, 892-898.
61. van Rooy, M. P. (1965), A rainfall anomaly index independent of time and space, Notos S. Afr. Weather Bur., 14, 43-48.
62. Vicente-Serrano, S. M. (2006), Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: An analysis of the Iberian Peninsula, Water Resour. Manage. Ser., 20, 37-60.
63. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., and J. I. Lopez-Moreno (2005), Hydrological response to different time scales of climatological drought: an evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index in a mountainous Mediterranean Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 523-533.
64. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., S. Begueria, and J. I. Lopez-Moreno (2010), A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, J. Clim., 23, 1696-1718, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1.
65. Walpole, R. E. (2000), Introduction to Statistics, 520 pp., Macmillan, Singapore.
66. Wang, A., T. J. Bohn, S. P. Mahanama, R. D. Koster, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2009), Multimodel ensemble reconstruction of drought over the continental United States, J. Clim., 22, 2694-2712, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2586.1:2009.
67. Wang, L., T. Koike, K. Yang, T. Jackson, R. Bindlish, and D. Yang (2009a), Development of a distributed biosphere hydrological model and its evaluation with the Southern Great Plains Experiments (SGP97 and SGP99), J. Geophys. Res., 114, D08107, doi:10.1029/2008JD010800.
68. Wang, L., T. Koike, K. Yang, and P. Yeh (2009b), Assessment of a distributed biosphere hydrological model against streamflow and MODIS land surface temperature in the upper Tone River Basin, J. Hydrol., 377, 21-34.
69. Wang, L., T. Koike, D. Yang, and K. Yang (2009c), Improving the hydrology of the Simple Biosphere Model 2 and its evaluation within the framework of a distributed hydrological model, Hydrol. Sci. J., 54(6), 989-1006.
70. Wilhite, D. A., and M. H. Glantz (1985), Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions, Water Int., 10, 111-120. (Pubitemid 16292579)
71. Yang, D., T. Koike, and H. Tanizawa (2004), Application of a distributed hydrological model and weather radar observation for flood management in the upper Tone River of Japan, Hydrol. Processes, 18, 3119-3132, doi:10.1002/hyp.5752. (Pubitemid 39621793)
72. Yatagai, A., O. Arakawa, K. Kamiguchi, H. Kawamoto, M. I. Nodzu, and A. Hamada (2009), A 44-Year Daily Gridded Precipitation Dataset for Asia Based on a Dense Network of Raingauges, SOLA, 5, 137-140, doi:10.2151/sola.2009-035.