Potential malaria outbreak in Germany due to climate warming: Risk modelling based on temperature measurements and regional climate models

Environmental Science and Pollution Research

Volumn 18, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 428-435

  Holy, Marcel ^a   Schmidt, Gunther ^a   Schröder, Winfried ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF VECHTA   (Germany)

Author keywords

Anopheles atroparvus; Basic reproduction rate; Climate change; Malaria; Modelling; Plasmodium vivax

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; DISEASE SEVERITY; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; MALARIA; MOSQUITO; POPULATION DENSITY; REGIONAL CLIMATE;

GERMANY; LOWER SAXONY;

ANOPHELES ATROPARVUS; CULICOIDEA; HEXAPODA; PLASMODIUM VIVAX;

EID: 79951771462     PISSN: 09441344     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-010-0388-x     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Bryan JH, Foley DH, Sutherst RW (1996) Malaria transmission and climate change in Australia. Med J Aust 164: 345-347.
2. Dalitz MK (2005) Autochthone Malaria im mitteldeutschen Raum. Dissertation, University of Halle.
3. Doudier B, Bogreau H, DeVries A, Ponçon N, Stauffer WM, Fontenille D, Rogier C, Parola P (2007) Possible autochtonous malaria from Marseille to Minneapolis. Emerg Infect Dis 13(8): 1236-1238.
4. Ebert B, Fleischer B (2008) Malaria: Stellungnahmen des Arbeitskreises Blut des Bundesministeriums für Gesundheit. Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz 51: 236-249.
5. Gimnig JE, Hightower AW, Hawley WA (2005) Application of geographic information systems to the study of the ecology of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases. In: Takken W, Martens P, Bogers RJ (eds) Environmental change and malaria risk: global and local implications. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 15-26.
6. Gubler DJ, Reiter P, Ebi KL, Yap W, Nasci R, Patz JA (2001) Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases. Environ Health Persp 109(2): 223-233.
7. Hackett LW, Missiroli A (1935) The varieties of Anopheles maculipennis and their relation to the distribution of malaria in Europe. Riv Malariol XIV(1): 1.
8. Hartelt K, Pluta S, Oehme R, Kimmig P (2008) Spread of ticks and tick-borne diseases in Germany due to global warming. Parasitol Res 103(Suppl 1): 109-116.
9. Heinz HJ (1950) Neuere Untersuchungen über die Verbreitung von Anopheles maculipennis in Hamburg. Z Angew Entomol 31(2): 304-333.
10. Hoshen MB, Morse AP (2004) A weather-driven model of malaria transmission. Malar J 3: 32.
11. Jetten TH, Takken W (1994) Anophelism without malaria: a review of the ecology and distribution of the genus Anopheles in Europe. Wageningen Agricultural University Papers 94(5).
12. Johnston K, Ver Hoef JM, Krivoruchko K, Lucas N (2001) Using ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst. ESRI, Redlands.
13. Kampen H, Kiel E, Schröder W (2007) Blauzungenkrankheit in Deutschland 2006. Epizootiologischer Hintergrund, entomologische Analyse und notwendige Konsequenzen. Umweltwissenschaften und Schadstoff-Forschung. Z Umweltchemie Ökotoxikologie 19: 37-46.
14. Krüger A, Rech A, Su XZ, Tannich E (2001) Two cases of autochthonous Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Germany with evidence for local transmission by indigenous Anopheles plumbeus. Trop Med Int Health 6(12): 983-985.
15. Kuhn KG, Campbell-Lendrum DH, Armstrong B, Davies CR (2003) Malaria in Britain: past, present, and future. PNAS 100(17): 9997-10001.
16. Leemans R (2005) Global environmental change and health. Integrating knowledge form natural, socioeconomic and medical sciences. In: Takken W, Martens P, Bogers RJ (eds) Environmental change and malaria risk. Global and local implications. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 15-26.
17. Lindsay SW, Thomas CJ (2001) Global warming and risk of vivax malaria in Great Britain. Glob Change Hum Health 2(1): 80-84.
18. Maier WA, Grunewald J, Habedank B, Hartelt K, Kampen H, Kimmig P, Naucke T, Oehme R, Vollmer A, Schöler A, Schmitt C (2003) Mögliche Auswirkungen von Klimaveränderung auf die Ausbreitung von primär humanmedizinisch relevanten Krankheitserregern über tierische Vektoren sowie auf die wichtigen Humanparasiten in Deutschland. Climate Change 05/03, 389 pp.
19. Malecki JM, Kumar S, Johnson BF et al (2003) Local transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria-Palm Beach county, Florida, 2003. MMWR 52(38): 908-911.
20. Martens P, Kovats RS, Nijhof S, de Vries P, Livermore MTJ, Bradley DJ, Cox J, McMichael AJ (1999) Climate change and future population at risk of malaria. Glob Environ Change 9: 89-107.
21. Martini E (1920) Anopheles in Niedersachsen und die Malariagefahr. Hyg Rundsch 22: 673-677.
22. Martini E (1946) Lehrbuch der medizinischen Entomologie. Gustav Fischer, Jena.
23. Mehlhorn H, Walldorf V, Klimpel S, Schmahl G (2008) Outbreak of bluetongue disease (BTD) in Germany and the danger for Europe. Parasitol Res 103(Suppl): 79-86.
24. Millet JP, Gercia de Olalla P, Carillo-Santisteve P, Gascón J, Treviňo B, Muňoz J, Gomez i Prat J, Cabezos J, Gonzáles Cordón A, Caylà JA (2008) Imported malaria in a cosmopolitan European city: a mirror image of the world epidemiological situation. Malar J 7: 56.
25. Mohrig W (1969) Die Culiciden Deutschlands. Parasitologische Schriftenreihe 18.
26. Mühlberger N et al (2004) Epidemiology and clinical features of vivax malaria imported to Europe: sentinel surveillance data from TropNetEurop. Malar J 3: 5.
27. Mühlens P (1930) Malaria. Neue Dtsch Klin VII(31): 122-149.
28. Odeh IOA, McBratney AB, Chittleborough DJ (1995) Further results on prediction of soil properties from terrain attributes: heterotopic cokriging and regression-kriging. Geoderma 67(3-4): 215-226.
29. Omumbo JA, Hay SI, Guerra CA, Snow RW (2004) The relationship between the Plasmodium falciparum parasite ratio in childhood and climate estimates of malaria transmission in Kenya. Malar J 3: 17.
30. Pastor A, Neely J, Goodfriend D et al (2002) Local transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria-Virginia, 2002. MMWR 51(41): 921-923.
31. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) (2007) Climate change 2007. Synthesis report. Geneva, 52 pp.
32. Ponçon N, Tran A, Toty C, Luty AJF, Fontenille D (2008) A quantitative risk assessment approach for mosquito-borne diseases: malaria re-emergence in southern France. Malar J 7: 147.
33. Ramsdale C, Snow K (2000) Distribution of the genus Anopheles in Europe. Eur Mosq Bull 7: 1-26.
34. Reiter P (2000) Malaria and global warming in perspective? Emerg Infect Dis 6: 438-439.
35. RKI (Robert-Koch-Institut) (1999) Zur airport-malaria und baggage-malaria. Epidemiologisches Bulletin 37/99: 274.
36. Schmidt G, Holy M, Schröder W (2008) Vector-associated diseases in the contect of climate change: analysis and evaluation of the differences in the potential spread of tertian malaria in the ecoregions of Lower Saxony. Ital J Public Health 5(4): 245-252.
37. Schröder W, Schmidt G (2001) Defining ecoregions as framework for the assessment of ecological monitoring networks in Germany by means of GIS and classification and regression trees (CART). Gate to EHS 1(3): 1-9.
38. Schröder W, Schmidt G (2008) Mapping the potential temperature-dependent tertian malaria transmission within the ecoregions of Lower Saxony (Germany). Int J Med Microbiol 298(S1): 38-49.
39. Small J, Goetz SJ, Hay SI (2003) Climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa 1911-1995. PNAS 100: 15341-15345.
40. Smith DL, McKenzie FE (2004) Statics and dynamics of malaria infection in Anopheles mosquitoes. Malar J 3: 13.
41. Snow RW, Ikoku A, Omumbo J, Ouma J (1990) The epidemiology, politics and control of malaria epidemics in Kenya: 1900-1998. Roll back malaria, resource network on epidemics. World Health Organisation, Geneva.
42. Swellengrebel NH, de Buck A, Kraan MH, van der Torren G (1935) Occurence in fresh and brackish water on the larvae of Anopheles maculipenni, s atroparvus and messeae in some coastal provinces of the Netherlands. Q Bull Health Organ League Nations V(3): 280-294.
43. Tran A, Ponçon N, Toty C, Linard C, Guis H, Ferré JB, Lo Seen D, Roger F, de la Rocque S, Fontenille D, Baldet T (2008) Using remote sensing to map larval and adult populations of Anopheles hyrcanus (Diptera: Culicidae) potential malaria vector in Southern France. Int J Health Geogr 7: 9.
44. Tseng WC, Chen CC, Chang CC, Chu YH (2009) Estimating the economic impacts of climate change on infectious diseases: a case study on dengue fever in Taiwan. Clim Change 92: 123-140.
45. Weyer F (1940) Malaria und Malariaübertragung in Ostfriesland. Deutsche Tropenmedizinische Wochenschrift 44(1-2).
46. WHO (World Health Organization) (2005) World malaria report 2005. World Health Organisation, Geneva.
47. Zhang Y, Peng B, Hiller JE (2008) Climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases: a review. Asia Pac J Publ Health 20(1): 64-76.
48. Zoller T, Naucke TJ, May J, Hoffmeister B, Flick H, Williams CJ, Frank C, Bergmann F, Suttorp N, Mockenhaupt P (2009) Malaria transmission in non-endemic areas: case report, review of the literature and implications for public health management. Malar J 8: 71.