Impact of climatic change on alpine ecosystem:inference and prediction;Impact des changements climatiques sur les écosystèmes alpins:Comment les mettre en évidence et ls préviour ?

Revue de Geographie Alpine

Volumn 98, Issue 4, 2010, Pages

  Yoccoz, Nigel G ^a   Delestrade, Anne ^b   Loison, Anne ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TROMSØ   (Norway)

^b CREA Centre de Recherches sur les Ecosystèmes d'Altitude   (France)

^c UNIVERSITÉ DE SAVOIE   (France)

Author keywords

Biodiversity; Ecosystem; Modelling; Phenology; Population

Indexed keywords

ALPINE ENVIRONMENT; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; ECOSYSTEM RESPONSE; ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS; INTERSPECIFIC INTERACTION; PHENOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS;

HEXAPODA;

EID: 79951733299     PISSN: 00351121     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. ALBERT CH, YOCCOZ NG, EDWARDS TC, GRAHAM CH, ZIMMERMANN NE , THUILLER W., 2011. - "Sampling in ecology and evolution - Bridging the gap between theory and practice". Ecography.
2. (Pubitemid 23399507)
3. BENISTON M., 2009. - Changements climatiques et impacts. Lausanne, Suisse. Presses Polytechniques et Universitaires Romandes.
4. BOX GEP, HUNTER JS, HUNTER WG., 2005. - Statistics for experimenters. Design, innovation, and discovery. Hoboken, New Jersey. Wiley-Interscience, John Wiley & Sons.
5. CASATI B, WILSON LJ, STEPHENSON DB, NURMI P, GHELLI A, POCERNICH M, DAMRATH U, EBERT EE, BROWN BG, MASON S., 2008. - "Forecast verification: current status and future directions". Meteorological Applications, 15, pp. 3-18.
6. CHUINE I., 2000. - "A unified model for budburst of trees". Journal of Theoretical Biology, 207, pp. 337-347.
7. ENGLER R, RANDIN CF, VITTOZ P, CZAKA T, BENISTON M, ZIMMERMANN NE, GUISAN A., 2009. - "Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?" Ecography, 32, pp. 34-45.
8. ESPER J, BUNTGEN U, FRANK DC, NIEVERGELT D, LIEBHOLD A., 2007. - "1200 years of regular outbreaks in alpine insects". Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 274, pp. 671-679. (Pubitemid 47056782)
9. GALLIEN L, MUNKEMULLER T, ALBERT CH, BOULANGEAT I, THUILLER W., 2010. - "Predicting potential distributions of invasive species: where to go from here?" Diversity and Distributions, 16, pp. 331-342.
10. GARROTT RA, WHITE PJ, WATSON FGR, EDS., 2009. - The ecology of large mammals in Central Yellowstone: Sixteen years of integrated field studies. Elsevier.
11. GEHRIG-FASEL J, GUISAN A, ZIMMERMANN NE., 2007. - "Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: Climate change or land abandonment?" Journal of Vegetation Science, 18, pp. 571-582. (Pubitemid 46883247)
12. GUISAN A, BROENNIMANN O, ENGLER R, VUST M, YOCCOZ NG, LEHMANN A, ZIMMERMANN NE., 2006. - "Using niche-based models to improve the sampling of rare species". Conservation Biology, 20, pp. 501-511.
13. HAGEN SB, JEPSEN JU, IMS RA, YOCCOZ NG., 2007. - "Shifting altitudinal distribution of outbreak zones of winter moth Operophtera brumata in sub-arctic birch forest: a response to recent climate warming?" Ecography, 30, pp. 299-307. (Pubitemid 46606865)
14. HOFFMANN A, WILLI Y., 2008. - "Detecting genetic response to environmental change". Nature Reviews Genetics, 9, pp. 421-432. (Pubitemid 351693974)
15. INOUYE DW, BARR B, ARMITAGE KB, INOUYE BD., 2000. - "Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 97, pp. 1630-1633. (Pubitemid 30118493)
16. JONZÉN N. ET AL., 2006. - "Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds". Science, 312, pp. 1959-1961.
17. KASPAR F, KUHL N, CUBASCH U, LITT T., 2005. - "A model-data comparison of European temperatures in the Eemian interglacial". Geophysical Research Letters, 32, art. no. L11703.
18. KAUSRUD KL. ET AL., 2008. - "Linking climate change to lemming cycles". Nature, 456, pp. 93-97.
19. LAU JA, TIFFIN P., 2009. - "Elevated carbon dioxide concentrations indirectly affect plant fitness by altering plant tolerance to herbivory". Oecologia, 161, pp. 401-410.
20. LEVINSKY I, SKOV F, SVENNING JC, RAHBEK C., 2007. - "Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals". Biodiversity and Conservation, 16, pp. 3803-3816. (Pubitemid 47628596)
21. MENZEL A. ET AL., 2006. - "European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern". Global Change Biology, 12, pp. 1969-1976. (Pubitemid 44383518)
22. MORIN X., THUILLER W., 2009. - "Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change". Ecology, 90, pp. 1301-1313.
23. MORISETTE JT. ET AL., 2009. - "Tracking the rhythm of the seasons in the face of global change: phenological research in the 21st century". Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 7, pp. 253-260.
24. ORESKES N., 2003. - "The role of quantitative models in science". In Canham CD, Cole JJ, Lauenroth WK, eds. Models in ecosystem science. Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 13-31.
25. POPY S., BORDIGNON L., PRODON R., 2010. - "A weak upward elevational shift in the distributions of breeding birds in the Italian Alps". Journal of Biogeography, 37, pp. 57-67.
26. RÄISANEN J., 2007. - "How reliable are climate models?" Tellus Series a-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 59, pp. 2-29.
27. RANDIN CF, DIRNBOCK T, DULLINGER S, ZIMMERMANN NE, ZAPPA M, GUISAN A., 2006. - "Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?" Journal of Biogeography, 33: pp. 1689-1703. (Pubitemid 44370085)
28. RANDIN CF, ENGLER R, NORMAND S, ZAPPA M, ZIMMERMANN NE, PEARMAN PB, VITTOZ P, THUILLER W, GUISAN A., 2009. - "Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence". Global Change Biology, 15, pp. 1557-1569.
29. REBETEZ M., 2004. - "Summer 2003 maximum and minimum daily temperatures over a 3300 m altitudinal range in the Alps". Climate Research, 27, pp. 45-50. (Pubitemid 39224907)
30. STENSETH NC, FALCK W, CHAN K-S, BJøRNSTAD ON, O'DONOGHUE M, TONG H, BOONSTRA R, BOUTIN S, KREBS CJ, YOCCOZ NG., 1998. - "From patterns to processes: phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 95, pp. 15430-15435. (Pubitemid 29018715)
31. STENSETH NC, MYSTERUD A, OTTERSEN G, HURRELL JW, CHAN KS, LIMA M., 2002. - "Ecological effects of climate fluctuations". Science, 297, pp. 1292-1296. (Pubitemid 34913160)
32. THUILLER W, LAVOREL S, ARAUJO MB, SYKES MT, PRENTICE IC., 2005. - "Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, pp. 8245-8250. (Pubitemid 40800074)
33. THUILLER W, LAFOURCADE B, ENGLER R, ARAUJO MB., 2009. - "BIOMOD, a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions". Ecography, 32, pp. 369-373.
34. VITASSE Y, PORTE AJ, KREMER A, MICHALET R, DELZON S., 2009. - "Responses of canopy duration to temperature changes in four temperate tree species: relative contributions of spring and autumn leaf phenology". Oecologia, 161, pp. 187-198.
35. WIPF S, RIXEN C., 2010. - "A review of snow manipulation experiments in Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems". Polar Research, 29, pp. 95-109.
36. YOCCOZ NG, IMS RA., 1999. - "Demography of small mammal in cold regions: the importance of environmental variability". Ecological Bulletins, 47, pp. 137-144.
37. ZIELLO C, ESTRELLA N, KOSTOVA M, KOCH E, MENZEL A., 2009. - "Influence of altitude on phenology of selected plant species in the Alpine region (1971-2000)". Climate Research, 39, pp. 227-234.
38. ZIMMERMANN NE, KIENAST F., 1999. - "Predictive mapping of alpine grasslands in Switzerland: Species versus community approach". Journal of Vegetation Science, 10, pp. 469-482. (Pubitemid 29463894)
39. ZIMMERMANN NE, YOCCOZ NG, EDWARDS TC, MEIER ES, THUILLER W, GUISAN A, SCHMATZ DR, PEARMAN PB., 2009. - "Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, pp. 19723-19728.