A statistical approach to evaluate the tephra deposit and ash concentration from PUFF model forecasts

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Volumn 200, Issue 3-4, 2011, Pages 129-142

  Scollo, S ^a   Prestifilippo, M ^a   Coltelli, M ^a   Peterson, R A ^b   Spata, G ^a  

^a ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS   (United States)

Author keywords

Ash dispersal; Ash forecasting and aviation safety; Mt. Etna; Parametric study and model validation; PUFF model

Indexed keywords

ASH DISPERSAL; AVIATION SAFETY; MT. ETNA; PARAMETRIC STUDY; PUFF MODEL;

AVIATION; CONCENTRATION (PROCESS); DEPOSITS; LAGRANGE MULTIPLIERS; VOLCANOES; WEATHER FORECASTING;

COMPUTER SIMULATION;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; CONCENTRATION (COMPOSITION); DIFFUSION; EULERIAN ANALYSIS; EXPLOSIVE VOLCANISM; LAGRANGIAN ANALYSIS; MODEL VALIDATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; PREDICTION; TEPHRA; VOLCANIC ASH; VOLCANIC ERUPTION; VOLCANOLOGY;

CATANIA [SICILY]; ETNA; ITALY; SICILY;

EID: 79951727248     PISSN: 03770273     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.12.004     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Aloisi M., D'Agostino M., Dean K.G., Mostaccio A., Neri G. Satellite analysis and PUFF simulation of the eruptive cloud generated by the Mount Etna paroxysm of 22 July 1998. J. Geophys. Res. 2002, 107(B12). 10.1029/2001JB000630.
2. Andronico D., Scollo S. 1998-2007: Ten Years of Explosive Activity at Mt. Etna Volcano, IAVCEI 2008 General Assembly, Reykjavík, Island, 18-24 August 2008 2008.
3. Andronico D., Del Carlo P., Coltelli M. The 22 July 1998 fire fountain episode at Voragine Crater (Mt. Etna, Italy). Proceedings of the Volcanic and Magmatic Studies Group - Annual Meeting. January 5-6, 1999 1999.
4. Andronico D., Scollo S., Cristaldi A., Ferruccio F. Monitoring ash emission episodes at Mt. Etna: the 16 November 2006 case study. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 2009, 180:123-134.
5. Barnard S.T. Results of a reconnaissance trip to Mt. Etna, Italy: the effects of the 2002 eruption of Etna on the province of Catania. Bull. New Zealand Soc. Earthquake Eng. 2004, 37(2):47-62.
6. Barsotti S., Neri A. The VOL-CALPUFF model for atmospheric ash dispersal: 2. Application to the weak Mount Etna plume of July 2001. J. Geophys. Res. 2008, 113:B03209. 10.1029/2006JB004624.
7. Bonadonna C., Ernst G.G.J., Sparks R.S.J. Thickness variations and volume estimates of tephra fall deposits: the importance of particle Reynolds number. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 1998, 81:173-187.
8. Bonadonna C., Macedonio G., Sparks R.S.J. Numerical modelling of tephra fallout associated with dome collapses and vulcanian explosions: application to hazard assessment on Montserrat. The Eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999 2002, 517-537. Geological Society, London, Memoir. T.H. lDruitt, B.P. Kokelaar (Eds.).
9. Bonadonna C., Connor C.B., Houghton B.F., Sahetapy-Engel S., Hincks T., Connor L. Probabilistic modeling of tephra dispersion: hazard assessment of a multi-phase rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera, NewZealand. J. Geophys. Res. 2005, 110:B03203. 10.1029/2003JB002896.
10. Bonadonna C., Phillips J.C., Houghton B.F. Modeling tephra sedimentation from a Ruapehu weak plume eruption. J. Geophys. Res. 2005, 110:B08209. 10.1029/2004JB003515.
11. Casadevall T.J. Volcanic ash and aviation safety. Proceedings of the First International Symposium on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety 1994, U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin, 2047, 450.
12. Cavazzoni C., Ongaro T.E., Erbacci G., Neri A., Macedonio G. High performance computing simulations of pyroclastic flows. Comput. Phys. Commun. 2005, 169:454-456.
13. Charpentier I. Variational coupling of Plinian column models and data: application to El Chichon volcano. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2008, 175:501-508.
14. Coltelli M., Miraglia L., Scollo S. Shape characterization of the volcanic particles carried out by SEM technique for the calculus of the terminal settling velocities. Bull. Volcanol. 2008, 10.1007/s00445-007-0192-8.
15. Costa A., Macedonio G., Folch A. A three dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 2006, 241:634-647.
16. Daniele P., Lirer L., Petrosino R., Spinelli N., Peterson R. Applications of the PUFF model to forecasts of volcanic clouds dispersal from Etna and Vesuvio. Comput. Geosci. 2009, 35:1035-1049.
17. Dean K.G., Dehn J., Papp K.P., Smith S., Izbekov P., Peterson R., Kearney C., Steffke A. Integrated satellite observations of the 2001 eruption of Mt. Cleveland, Alaska. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2004, 135:51-73.
18. Duda R.O., Hart P.E., Stork D.G. Pattern Classification 2001, Wiley, 2 edition, November 2001.
19. Durant A.J., Rose W.I., Sarna-Wojcicki A.M., Carey S., Volentik A.C.M. Hydrometeor-enhanced tephra sedimentation: constraints from the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (USA). J. Geophys. Res. 2009, 114. 10.1029/2008JB005756.
20. Favalli M., Mazzarini F., Pareschi M.T., Boschi E. Role of local wind circulation in plume monitoring at Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily): insights from a mesoscale numerical model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2004, 31. 10.1029/2003GL019281.
21. Fero J., Carey S.N., Merrill J.T. Simulation of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens using the ash-tracking model PUFF. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2008, 175(3):355-366.
22. Fero J., Carey S.N., Merrill J.T. Simulating the dispersal of tephra from the 1991 Pinatubo eruption: implications for the formation of widespread ash layers. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2009, 186(1-2):120-131.
23. Folch A., Cavazzoni C., Costa A., Macedonio G. An automatic procedure to forecast tephra fallout. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2008, 177:767-777.
24. EUR Doc 019 NAT Doc 006, Part II. Volcanic Ash Contingency Plan, Eur and Nat Regions 2010, ICAO, July 2010.
25. Ishimine Y. A simple integral model of buoyancy-generating plumes and its application to volcanic eruption columns. J. Geophys. Res. 2007, 112:B03210. 10.1029/2006JB004274.
26. Keating G.N., Pelletier J.D., Valentine G.A., Statham W. Evaluating suitability of a tephra dispersal model as part of a risk assessment framework. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2008, 177:397-404.
27. Kratzmann D.J., Carey S., Scasso R., Naranjo J.A. Simulations of tephra dispersal from the 1991 explosive eruptions of Hudson volcano, Chile. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2010, 190:337-352.
28. Macedonio G., Costa A., Longo V. A computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 2005, 31:837-845.
29. Mastin L.G., Guffanti M., Servranckx R., Webley P., Barsotti S., Dean K., Durant A., Ewert J.W., Neri A., Rose W.I., Schneider D., Siebert L., Stunder B., Swanson G., Tupper A., Volentik A., Waythomas C.F. A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2009, 186:10-21.
30. Naud C., Muller J., Haeffelin M., Morille Y., Delaval A. Assessment of MISR and MODIS cloud top heights through intercomparison with a back-scattering lidar at SIRTA. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2004, 31:L04114. 10.1029/2003GL018976.
31. Papp K.R., Dean K.G., Dehn J. Predicting regions susceptible to high concentrations of airborne volcanic ash in the North Pacific region. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2005, 148:295-314.
32. Peterson, R.A., Dean K., 2003. Sensitivity of Puff: a Volcanic Ash Particle Tracking Model, Technical Report (). http://www.puff.images.alaska.edu/sensitivity/sens_paper.pdf.
33. Pfeiffer T., Costa A., Macedonio G. A model for the numerical simulation of tephra fall deposits. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2005, 140(4):273-294.
34. Riley C.M., Rose W.I., Bluth G.J.S. Quantitative shape measurements of distal volcanic ash. J. Geophys. Res. 2003, 108(B10):2504. 10.1029/2001JB000818.
35. Saltelli A., Ratto M., Andres T., Campolongo F., Cariboni J., Gatelli D., Saisana M., Tarantola S. Global Sensitivity Analysis the Primer 2008, John Wiley & Sons.
36. Scollo S., Bonadonna C., Coltelli M., Del Carlo P. Probabilistic Tephra Fall-hazard Assessment at Etna Volcano, Italy, Cities on Volcanoes 4, Quito, Ecuador, 22-27 January 2006 2006.
37. Scollo S., Del Carlo P., Coltelli M. Tephra fallout of 2001 Etna flank eruption: analysis of the deposit and plume dispersion. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 2007, 160:147-164.
38. Scollo S., Tarantola S., Bonadonna C., Coltelli M., Saltelli A. Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation for tephra dispersal models. J. Geophys. Res. 2008, 113(B06202). 10.1029/2006JB004864.
39. Scollo S., Folch A., Costa A. A parametric and comparative study of different tephra fallout models. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2008, 176:199-211.
40. Scollo S., Prestifilippo M., Spata G., D'Agostino M., Coltelli M. Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. 2009, 9:1573-1585.
41. Scollo, S., Folch, A., Coltelli, M., Realmuto V.J., 2010. Three-dimensional volcanic aerosol dispersal: A comparison between Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) data and numerical simulations, J. Geophys. Res. 115, D24210. doi:10.1029/2009JD013162.
42. Searcy C., Dean K., Stringer W. PUFF: a high-resolution volcanic ash tracking model. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 1998, 80:1-16.
43. Suzuki T. A theoretical model for dispersion of tephra. Arc Volcanism, Physics and Tectonics 1983, 95-113. Terra Scientific Publishing Company Terra Scientific Publishing Company Terrapub, Tokyo. D.S.a.I.Y. (Ed.).
44. Tanaka H.L. Development of a Prediction Scheme for Volcanic Ash Fall from Redoubt Volcano, Alaska. Proc. First International Symposium on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety 1994, 2047:283-291. U.S. Geological Survey, Bulletin.
45. Tanaka H.L., Yamamoto K. Numerical simulation of volcanic plume dispersal from Usu Volcano in Japan on 31 March 2000 using PUFF model. Earth Planets Space 2002, 54(7):743-752.
46. Turner J.S. Buoyancy effects in fluids 1973, Cambridge University, Press, Cambridge, 368pp.
47. Webley P.W., Dean K., Bailey J.E., Dehn J., Peterson R. Volcanic ash modeling for North Pacific volcanoes automated operational monitoring and virtual globes. 4th International Workshop on Volcanic Ash 2007, 1-7. Civil Aviation Authority, Rotorua, New Zealand.
48. Webley P.W., Stunder B.J.B., Dean K.G. Preliminary sensitivity study of eruption source parameters for operational volcanic ash cloud transport and dispersion models - a case study of the August 1992 eruption of the Crater Peak vent, Mount Spurr, Alaska. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2009, 186(1-2):108-119.