메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 200, Issue 3-4, 2011, Pages 99-115

Applicability of statistical eruption analysis to the geological record of Villarrica and Lanín volcanoes, Southern Volcanic Zone, Chile

Author keywords

Distribution functions; Eruption time series; Geological record; Lan n Volcano; Probabilistic eruption forecasting; Villarrica Volcano; Volcanic hazards

Indexed keywords

ERUPTION TIME SERIES; GEOLOGICAL RECORD; PROBABILISTIC ERUPTION FORECASTING; VILLARRICA VOLCANO; VOLCANIC HAZARDS;

EID: 79951724158     PISSN: 03770273     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.11.009     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (10)

References (55)
  • 1
    • 0000501656 scopus 로고
    • Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle
    • Akademiai Kiado, Budapest, B.N. Petrov, F. Csaki (Eds.)
    • Akaike H. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. Second International Symposium on Information Theory 1973, 267-281. Akademiai Kiado, Budapest. B.N. Petrov, F. Csaki (Eds.).
    • (1973) Second International Symposium on Information Theory , pp. 267-281
    • Akaike, H.1
  • 2
    • 35348861830 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov models
    • Bebbington M.S. Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov models. Geophys. J. Int. 2007, 171:921-942. 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03559.x.
    • (2007) Geophys. J. Int. , vol.171 , pp. 921-942
    • Bebbington, M.S.1
  • 3
    • 49049106078 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Incorporating the eruptive history in a stochastic model for volcanic eruptions
    • Bebbington M. Incorporating the eruptive history in a stochastic model for volcanic eruptions. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 2008, 175:325-333. 10.1016/j.volgeores.2008.03.013.
    • (2008) J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. , vol.175 , pp. 325-333
    • Bebbington, M.1
  • 4
    • 0030424051 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical analysis of New Zealand volcanic occurrence data
    • Bebbington M.S., Lai C.D. Statistical analysis of New Zealand volcanic occurrence data. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 1996, 74:101-110.
    • (1996) J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. , vol.74 , pp. 101-110
    • Bebbington, M.S.1    Lai, C.D.2
  • 5
    • 0030517836 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On nonhomogenous models for volcanic eruptions
    • Bebbington M.S., Lai C.D. On nonhomogenous models for volcanic eruptions. Math. Geol. 1996, 28(5):585-600.
    • (1996) Math. Geol. , vol.28 , Issue.5 , pp. 585-600
    • Bebbington, M.S.1    Lai, C.D.2
  • 7
    • 75949090599 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparative study of lahars generated by the 1961 and 1971 eruptions of Calbuco and Villarrica volcanoes, Southern Andes of Chile
    • Castruccio A., Clavero J., Rivera A. Comparative study of lahars generated by the 1961 and 1971 eruptions of Calbuco and Villarrica volcanoes, Southern Andes of Chile. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 2010, 190:297-311. 10.1016/j.volgeores.2009.12.005.
    • (2010) J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. , vol.190 , pp. 297-311
    • Castruccio, A.1    Clavero, J.2    Rivera, A.3
  • 8
    • 67349234067 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The link between volcanism and tectonics in the southern volcanic zone of the Chilean Andes: a review
    • Cembrano J., Lara L. The link between volcanism and tectonics in the southern volcanic zone of the Chilean Andes: a review. Tectonophysics 2009, 471:96-113.
    • (2009) Tectonophysics , vol.471 , pp. 96-113
    • Cembrano, J.1    Lara, L.2
  • 9
    • 0141514717 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exploring links between physical and probabilistic models of volcanic eruptions: the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat
    • Connor C.B., Sparks R.S.J., Mason R.M., Bonadonna C. Exploring links between physical and probabilistic models of volcanic eruptions: the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2003, 30(13):1701. 10.1029/2003GL017384.
    • (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.30 , Issue.13 , pp. 1701
    • Connor, C.B.1    Sparks, R.S.J.2    Mason, R.M.3    Bonadonna, C.4
  • 10
    • 57149116626 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What is the probability of explosive eruption at a long-dormant volcano?
    • Geological Society, London, H.M. Mader, S.G. Coles, C.B. Connor, L.J. Connor (Eds.) Statistics in Volcanology
    • Connor C.B., McBirney A.R., Furlan C. What is the probability of explosive eruption at a long-dormant volcano?. Special Publication of IAVCEI 2006, 1:57-76. Geological Society, London. H.M. Mader, S.G. Coles, C.B. Connor, L.J. Connor (Eds.).
    • (2006) Special Publication of IAVCEI , vol.1 , pp. 57-76
    • Connor, C.B.1    McBirney, A.R.2    Furlan, C.3
  • 13
    • 0026272858 scopus 로고
    • Poisson-distributed patterns of explosive activity
    • De la Cruz-Reyna S. Poisson-distributed patterns of explosive activity. Bull. Vol. 1991, 54:57-67.
    • (1991) Bull. Vol. , vol.54 , pp. 57-67
    • De la Cruz-Reyna, S.1
  • 14
    • 2142719166 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-term probabilistic analysis of future explosive eruptions
    • Springer, New York, Berlin, R. Scarpa, R.I. Tilling (Eds.)
    • De la Cruz-Reyna S. Long-term probabilistic analysis of future explosive eruptions. Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcanic Hazards 1996, Springer, New York, Berlin. R. Scarpa, R.I. Tilling (Eds.).
    • (1996) Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcanic Hazards
    • De la Cruz-Reyna, S.1
  • 15
    • 77952670319 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Eruption time series statistically examined: probabilities of future eruptions at Villarrica and Llaima Volcanoes, Southern Volcanic Zone, Chile
    • Dzierma Y., Wehrmann H. Eruption time series statistically examined: probabilities of future eruptions at Villarrica and Llaima Volcanoes, Southern Volcanic Zone, Chile. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 2010, 193:82-92. 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.03.009.
    • (2010) J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. , vol.193 , pp. 82-92
    • Dzierma, Y.1    Wehrmann, H.2
  • 16
    • 77958039392 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical eruption forecast for the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: typical frequencies of volcanic eruptions as baseline for possibly enhanced activity following the large 2010 Concepción earthquake
    • Dzierma Y., Wehrmann H. Statistical eruption forecast for the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: typical frequencies of volcanic eruptions as baseline for possibly enhanced activity following the large 2010 Concepción earthquake. Nat. Hazard Earth Syst. Sci. 2010, 10:2093-2108. 10.5194/nhess-10-2093-2010.
    • (2010) Nat. Hazard Earth Syst. Sci. , vol.10 , pp. 2093-2108
    • Dzierma, Y.1    Wehrmann, H.2
  • 18
    • 0021283532 scopus 로고
    • The Loma Seca Tuff and the Calabozos caldera: a major ash-flow and caldera complex in the southern Andes of central Chile
    • Hildreth W., Grunder A.L., Drake R.E. The Loma Seca Tuff and the Calabozos caldera: a major ash-flow and caldera complex in the southern Andes of central Chile. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 1984, 95:45-54.
    • (1984) Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. , vol.95 , pp. 45-54
    • Hildreth, W.1    Grunder, A.L.2    Drake, R.E.3
  • 19
    • 0025631216 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian analysis of volcanic eruptions
    • Ho C.-H. Bayesian analysis of volcanic eruptions. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 1990, 43:91-98.
    • (1990) J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. , vol.43 , pp. 91-98
    • Ho, C.-H.1
  • 20
    • 0026055584 scopus 로고
    • Time trend analysis of basaltic volcanism for the Yukka Mountain site
    • Ho C.-H. Time trend analysis of basaltic volcanism for the Yukka Mountain site. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 1991, 46:61-72.
    • (1991) J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. , vol.46 , pp. 61-72
    • Ho, C.-H.1
  • 21
    • 4644297025 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Volcanic eruptions observed with infrasound
    • Johnson J.B., Aster R.C., Kyle P.R. Volcanic eruptions observed with infrasound. Geophys. Res. Let. 2004, 31:L14604. 10.1029/2004GL020020.
    • (2004) Geophys. Res. Let. , vol.31
    • Johnson, J.B.1    Aster, R.C.2    Kyle, P.R.3
  • 22
    • 0019896501 scopus 로고
    • Patterns of historical eruptions at Hawaiian volcanoes
    • Klein F.W. Patterns of historical eruptions at Hawaiian volcanoes. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 1982, 12:1-35.
    • (1982) J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. , vol.12 , pp. 1-35
    • Klein, F.W.1
  • 24
    • 79951724543 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería, L.E. Lara, J. Clavero (Eds.)
    • Villarrica Volcano (39.5°S), Southern Andes, Chile 2004, Vol. 61. Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería. L.E. Lara, J. Clavero (Eds.).
    • (2004) Villarrica Volcano (39.5°S), Southern Andes, Chile , vol.61
  • 25
    • 14844366384 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Lanín Volcano (39.5°S), Southern Andes: geology and morphostructural evolution
    • Lara L.E., Naranjo J.A., Moreno H. Lanín Volcano (39.5°S), Southern Andes: geology and morphostructural evolution. Rev. Geol. Chile 2004, 31(2):241-257.
    • (2004) Rev. Geol. Chile , vol.31 , Issue.2 , pp. 241-257
    • Lara, L.E.1    Naranjo, J.A.2    Moreno, H.3
  • 26
    • 51749110899 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evidence of magma-water interaction during the 13,800years BP explosive cycle of the Licán Ignimbrite, Villarrica volcano (southern Chile)
    • Lohmar S., Robin C., Gourgaud A., Clavero J., Parada M.A., Moreno H., Ersoy O., López-Escobar L., Naranjo J.A. Evidence of magma-water interaction during the 13,800years BP explosive cycle of the Licán Ignimbrite, Villarrica volcano (southern Chile). Rev. Geol. Chile 2007, 34(2):233-247.
    • (2007) Rev. Geol. Chile , vol.34 , Issue.2 , pp. 233-247
    • Lohmar, S.1    Robin, C.2    Gourgaud, A.3    Clavero, J.4    Parada, M.A.5    Moreno, H.6    Ersoy, O.7    López-Escobar, L.8    Naranjo, J.A.9
  • 27
    • 79951723902 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistics in Volcanology
    • Geological Society, London, H.M. Mader, S.G. Coles, C.B. Connor, L.J. Connor (Eds.)
    • Statistics in Volcanology. Spec. Pub. of IAVCEI 2006, 1. Geological Society, London. H.M. Mader, S.G. Coles, C.B. Connor, L.J. Connor (Eds.).
    • (2006) Spec. Pub. of IAVCEI , vol.1
  • 29
    • 14344250826 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius
    • Marzocchi W., Sandri L., Gasparini P., Newhall C., Boschi E. Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius. J. Geophys. Res. 2004, 109:B11201. 10.1029/2004JB003155.
    • (2004) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.109
    • Marzocchi, W.1    Sandri, L.2    Gasparini, P.3    Newhall, C.4    Boschi, E.5
  • 30
    • 13244295797 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Characterization and evolution of tropospheric plumes from Lascar and Villarrica volcanoes, Chile
    • Mather T.A., Tsanev V.I., Pyle D.M., McGonicle A.J.S., Oppenheimer C. Characterization and evolution of tropospheric plumes from Lascar and Villarrica volcanoes, Chile. J. Geophys. Res. 2004, 109:D21303. 10.1029/2004JD004934.
    • (2004) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.109
    • Mather, T.A.1    Tsanev, V.I.2    Pyle, D.M.3    McGonicle, A.J.S.4    Oppenheimer, C.5
  • 32
    • 51949087448 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: application to active polygenetic volcanoes
    • Mendoza-Rosas A.T., De la Cruz-Reyna S. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: application to active polygenetic volcanoes. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 2008, 176:277-290. 10.1016/j.volgeores.2008.04.005.
    • (2008) J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. , vol.176 , pp. 277-290
    • Mendoza-Rosas, A.T.1    De la Cruz-Reyna, S.2
  • 33
    • 69649086540 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A mixture of exponentials distribution for a simple and precise assessment of the volcanic hazard
    • Mendoza-Rosas A.T., De la Cruz-Reyna S. A mixture of exponentials distribution for a simple and precise assessment of the volcanic hazard. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2009, 9:425-431.
    • (2009) Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. , vol.9 , pp. 425-431
    • Mendoza-Rosas, A.T.1    De la Cruz-Reyna, S.2
  • 34
    • 60749133283 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fluidization of buried mass-wasting deposits in lake sediments and its relevance for paleoseismology: results from a reflection seismic study of lakes Villarrica and Calafquén (South-Central Chile)
    • Moernaut J., De Batist M., Heirman K., Van Daele M., Pino M., Brümmer R., Urrutia R. Fluidization of buried mass-wasting deposits in lake sediments and its relevance for paleoseismology: results from a reflection seismic study of lakes Villarrica and Calafquén (South-Central Chile). Sed. Geol. 2009, 213:121-135. 10.1016/j.sedgeo.2008.12.002.
    • (2009) Sed. Geol. , vol.213 , pp. 121-135
    • Moernaut, J.1    De Batist, M.2    Heirman, K.3    Van Daele, M.4    Pino, M.5    Brümmer, R.6    Urrutia, R.7
  • 35
    • 2142807953 scopus 로고
    • Actividad explosiva postglacial del volcán Villarrica, Andes del Sur (39°25'S)
    • Concepción, Chile
    • Moreno H., Clavero J.E., Lara L. Actividad explosiva postglacial del volcán Villarrica, Andes del Sur (39°25'S). Congreso Geológico Chileno, No. 7, Actas, Vol. 1 1994, 329-333. Concepción, Chile.
    • (1994) Congreso Geológico Chileno, No. 7, Actas, Vol. 1 , pp. 329-333
    • Moreno, H.1    Clavero, J.E.2    Lara, L.3
  • 36
    • 0006302544 scopus 로고
    • Un approccio di soluzione al probleme del punto di svolta
    • Mulargia F., Tinti S. Un approccio di soluzione al probleme del punto di svolta. Statistica 1986, 46:47-57.
    • (1986) Statistica , vol.46 , pp. 47-57
    • Mulargia, F.1    Tinti, S.2
  • 37
    • 38249034744 scopus 로고
    • Identifying different regimes in eruptive activity: an application to Etna Volcano
    • Mulargia F., Gasperini P., Tinti S. Identifying different regimes in eruptive activity: an application to Etna Volcano. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 1987, 34:89-106.
    • (1987) J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. , vol.34 , pp. 89-106
    • Mulargia, F.1    Gasperini, P.2    Tinti, S.3
  • 38
    • 0020866792 scopus 로고
    • Eruption patterns of the Chilean volcanoes Villarrica, Llaima, and Tupungatito
    • Muñoz M. Eruption patterns of the Chilean volcanoes Villarrica, Llaima, and Tupungatito. Pageoph 1983, 121(5-6):835-852.
    • (1983) Pageoph , vol.121 , Issue.5-6 , pp. 835-852
    • Muñoz, M.1
  • 39
    • 0024252694 scopus 로고
    • The Quaternary volcanic belt of the southern continental margin of South America: transverse structural and petrochemical variations across the segment between 38°S and 39°S
    • Muñoz J., Stern C.R. The Quaternary volcanic belt of the southern continental margin of South America: transverse structural and petrochemical variations across the segment between 38°S and 39°S. J. S. Am. Earth Sci. 1988, 1:147-161.
    • (1988) J. S. Am. Earth Sci. , vol.1 , pp. 147-161
    • Muñoz, J.1    Stern, C.R.2
  • 41
    • 77958067868 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Chronology of postglacial eruptive activity and calculation of eruption probabilities for Medicine Lake volcano, northern California
    • Nathenson M., Donnelly-Nolan J.M., Champion D.E., Lowenstern J.B. Chronology of postglacial eruptive activity and calculation of eruption probabilities for Medicine Lake volcano, northern California. USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2007-5174-B 2007, 10pp., http://pubs.ugsg.gov/sir/2007/5174/b/.
    • (2007) USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2007-5174-B , pp. 10
    • Nathenson, M.1    Donnelly-Nolan, J.M.2    Champion, D.E.3    Lowenstern, J.B.4
  • 42
    • 0020082630 scopus 로고
    • The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI): an estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism
    • Newhall C.G., Self S. The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI): an estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism. J. Geophys. Res. 1982, 87(C2):1231-1238.
    • (1982) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.87 , Issue.C2 , pp. 1231-1238
    • Newhall, C.G.1    Self, S.2
  • 44
    • 84963178774 scopus 로고
    • Further analysis of the data by Akaike's information criterion and the finite corrections
    • Sigiura N. Further analysis of the data by Akaike's information criterion and the finite corrections. Comm. Statistics - Theory and Methods 1978, 7(1):13-26. 10.1080/03610927808827599.
    • (1978) Comm. Statistics - Theory and Methods , vol.7 , Issue.1 , pp. 13-26
    • Sigiura, N.1
  • 45
    • 77955094601 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Holocene Pucón eruption of Volcán Villarrica, Chile: deposit architecture and eruption chronology
    • Silva-Parejas C., Druitt T.H., Robin C., Morenao H., Naranjo J.A. The Holocene Pucón eruption of Volcán Villarrica, Chile: deposit architecture and eruption chronology. Bull. Volcanol. 2010, 72:677-692. 10.1007/s00445-010-0348-9.
    • (2010) Bull. Volcanol. , vol.72 , pp. 677-692
    • Silva-Parejas, C.1    Druitt, T.H.2    Robin, C.3    Morenao, H.4    Naranjo, J.A.5
  • 47
    • 68349119065 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Frequent eruptions of Mount Rainier over the last 2600years
    • Sisson T.W., Vallance J.W. Frequent eruptions of Mount Rainier over the last 2600years. Bull. Volcanol. 2009, 71:595-618. 10.1007/s00445-008-0245-7.
    • (2009) Bull. Volcanol. , vol.71 , pp. 595-618
    • Sisson, T.W.1    Vallance, J.W.2
  • 48
    • 28744450024 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Volcanological and geochemical evolution of the Diamante Caldera-Maipo Volcano complex in the southern Andes of Argentina (34°10'S)
    • Sruoga P., Llambías E.J., Fauqué L., Schonwandt D., Repol D.G. Volcanological and geochemical evolution of the Diamante Caldera-Maipo Volcano complex in the southern Andes of Argentina (34°10'S). J. S. Am. Earth Sci. 2005, 19:399-414.
    • (2005) J. S. Am. Earth Sci. , vol.19 , pp. 399-414
    • Sruoga, P.1    Llambías, E.J.2    Fauqué, L.3    Schonwandt, D.4    Repol, D.G.5
  • 49
    • 14844357792 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Active Andean volcanism: its geologic and tectonic setting
    • Stern C.R. Active Andean volcanism: its geologic and tectonic setting. Rev. Geol. Chile 2004, 31-2:161-206.
    • (2004) Rev. Geol. Chile , pp. 161-206
    • Stern, C.R.1
  • 50
    • 0027464565 scopus 로고
    • Extended 14C database and revised CALIB radiocarbon calibration program
    • Stuiver M., Reimer P.J. Extended 14C database and revised CALIB radiocarbon calibration program. Radiocarbon 1993, 35:215-230.
    • (1993) Radiocarbon , vol.35 , pp. 215-230
    • Stuiver, M.1    Reimer, P.J.2
  • 51
    • 0000953655 scopus 로고
    • Calibration issue
    • M. Stuiver, A. Long, R.S. Kra (Eds.)
    • Calibration issue. Radiocarbon 1993, 35/1. M. Stuiver, A. Long, R.S. Kra (Eds.).
    • (1993) Radiocarbon
  • 52
    • 39049126897 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Developing probabilistic eruption forecast for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki, New Zealand
    • Turner M.B., Cronin S.J., Bebbington M.S., Platz T. Developing probabilistic eruption forecast for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki, New Zealand. Bull. Volcanol. 2008, 70:507-515. 10.1007/s00445-007-0151-4.
    • (2008) Bull. Volcanol. , vol.70 , pp. 507-515
    • Turner, M.B.1    Cronin, S.J.2    Bebbington, M.S.3    Platz, T.4
  • 53
    • 34548749862 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vulcanian explosion cycles: patterns and predictability
    • Watt S.F.L., Mather T.A., Pyle D.M. Vulcanian explosion cycles: patterns and predictability. Geology 2007, 35(9):839-842. 10.1130/G23562A.1.
    • (2007) Geology , vol.35 , Issue.9 , pp. 839-842
    • Watt, S.F.L.1    Mather, T.A.2    Pyle, D.M.3
  • 54
    • 0000984424 scopus 로고
    • Repose-period patterns of volcanoes
    • Wickman F.E. Repose-period patterns of volcanoes. Ark. Min. Geol. 1966, 4(7):291-367.
    • (1966) Ark. Min. Geol. , vol.4 , Issue.7 , pp. 291-367
    • Wickman, F.E.1
  • 55
    • 2642587390 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Volatile degassing, petrology, and magma dynamics of the Villarrica Lava Lake, Southern Chile
    • Witter J.B., Kress V.C., Delmelle P., Stix J. Volatile degassing, petrology, and magma dynamics of the Villarrica Lava Lake, Southern Chile. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 2004, 134:303-337. 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2004.03.002.
    • (2004) J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. , vol.134 , pp. 303-337
    • Witter, J.B.1    Kress, V.C.2    Delmelle, P.3    Stix, J.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.