A method to forecast short-term output power of photovoltaic generation system based on Markov chain

Dianwang Jishu/Power System Technology

Volumn 35, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 152-157

  Ding, Ming ^a   Xu, Ningzhou ^a  

^a HEFEI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (China)

Author keywords

Forecasting; Markov chain; Output power; Photovoltaic system

Indexed keywords

HISTORICAL DATA; MARKOV CHAIN; MINISTRY OF EDUCATION; OUTPUT POWER; PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA; PHOTOVOLTAIC GENERATION SYSTEM; PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS; PV PLANTS;

FORECASTING; MARKOV PROCESSES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS;

PHOTOVOLTAIC EFFECTS;

EID: 79951713940     PISSN: 10003673     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (17)

1. Xu Honghua. The study on development of PV technology in China [J]. Power System Technology, 2007, 31(20): 7-11(in Chinese).
2. Safie F M. Probabilistic modeling of solar power systems[C]// Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. Atlanta, Georgia, USA: IEEE, 1989: 425-430.
3. Tina G, Gagliano S, Raiti S. Hybrid solar wind power system probabilistic modeling for long-term performance assessment[J]. Solar Energy, 2006, 80(5): 578-588.
4. Chowdhury B H. Central-station photovoltaic plant with energy storage for utility peak load leveling [C]//Energy Conversion Engineering Conference. Washington DC, USA: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 1989: 731-736.
5. Deshmukh M K, Deshmukh S S. Modeling of hybrid renewable energy systems[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2008, 12(1): 235-249.
6. Kroposki B, Emery K, Myers D, et al. A comparison of photovoltaic module performance evaluation methodologies for energy ratings[J]// Proceedings of 1th WCPEC. Hawaii, USA, 1994: 5-9.
7. Li Yingzi, Niu Jincang, Ru Luan, et al. Research of multi-power structure optimization for grid-connected photovoltaic system based on Markov decision-making model[C]//International Conference on Electrical Machines and Systems. Wuhan, China, 2008: 2607-2610.
8. Li Yingzi, Luan Ru, Niu Jincang. Forecast of power generation for grid-connected photovoltaic system based on grey model and Markov chain[C]//3rd IEEE Conference on Industrial Electronics and Applications. Singapore, 2008: 1729-1733.
9. Perez R, Ineichen P, Seals R, et al. Modeling daylight availability and irradiance components from direct and global irradiance[J]. Solar Energy, 1990, 44(5): 271-289.
10. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. National Solar Radiation Database User's Manual(1961-1990)[R]. Version 1.1. Washington DC, USA: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 1994.
11. National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Analytic Studies Division. Solar Radiation Data Manual for Flat-Plate and Concentrating Collectors [R]. Washington DC, USA: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 1994.
12. Angel U, Rudolph J, David I, et al. Probabilistic Analysis of Rechargeable Batteries in a Photovoltaic Power Supply System[R]. Livermore, California: Sandia National Laboratories, 1998.
13. Silverman B. Density estimation for statistics and data analysis[C]// Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability 26. London, UK, 1986: 22-23.
14. Angel U, Thomas L P, Christian O G, et al. Reliability of rechargeable batteries in a photovoltaic power supply system[J]. Journal of Power Sources, 1999, 80(1-2): 30-38.
15. Isaacson D, Madsen R. Markov Chains: Theory and Applications[M]. New York: Wiley, 1976: 23-68.
16. Shi Wenhui, Bie Zhaohong, Wang Xifan. Applications of Markov Chain Monte Carlo in large-scale system reliability evaluation[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2008, 28(4): 9-15(in Chinese).
17. Gao Yajing, Zhou Ming, Li Gengyin, et al. Available transfer capability calculation based on Markov chain and enumeration method[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2006, 26(19): 41-46(in Chinese).