Rain-based factors of high agricultural impacts over Senegal. Part I: Integration of local to sub-regional trends and variability

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Volumn 106, Issue 1-2, 2011, Pages 1-22

  Salack, S ^a,b   Muller, B ^c,d   Gaye, A T ^a  

^a UNIVERSITÉ CHEIKH ANTA DIOP   (Senegal)

^b Centre Régional pour l'Amélioration de l'Adaptation à la Secheresse CERAAS   (Senegal)

^c CIRAD   (France)

^d Centre du riz pour l'Afrique Senegal   (Senegal)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE EFFECT; CROPPING PRACTICE; DROUGHT; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; RAINFALL; SEASONAL VARIATION;

SENEGAL;

EID: 79951582902     PISSN: 0177798X     EISSN: 14344483     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-011-0414-z     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Abdi H, Molin P (2007) Lilliefors/van Soet's test of normality. In: Neil Salkind (Ed.) (2007), Encyclopedia of Measurement and Statistics. Available at: http://www. utdallas. edu/~herve/Abdi-Lillie2007-pretty. pdf.
2. AGRHYMET (1996) Méthodologie de suivi des zones à risque. AGRHYMET FLASH, Bulletin de Suivi de la Campagne Agricole au Sahel. Centre Régional Agrhymet, B. P. 11011, Niamey, Niger, vol. 2, No. 0/96. p. 2.
3. Ali A, Lebel T (2009) The Sahelian standardized rainfall index revisited. Int J Climatol 29(12): 1705-1714. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1832.
4. Balme M, Galle S, Lebel T (2004) Démarrage de la saison des pluies au Sahel: variabilité aux échelles hydrologique et agronomique, analysée à partir des données EPSAT-Niger. Sécheresse 16(1): 15-22.
5. Baron C, Sultan B, Balme M, Sarr B, Traore S, Lebel T, Janicot S, Dingkuhn M (2005) From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modeling of climate impact. Phil Trans R Soc B 360(1463): 2095-2108. doi: 10. 1098/rstb. 2005. 1741.
6. Bell MA, Lamb PJ (2006) Integration of weather system variability to multidecadal regional climate change: the West African Sudan-Sahel Zone, 1951-98. J Climat 19: 5343-5365.
7. Ben Mohamed A (2010) Climate change risks in Sahelian Africa. Reg Environ Change. doi: 10. 1007/s10113-010-0172-y.
8. Box GEP, Cox DR (1964) An Analysis of Transformations. J Royal Stat Society 127: 211-252.
9. Camberlin P, Diop M (2003) Application of daily principal component analysis to the assessment of the rainy season characteristics in Senegal. Clim Res 23: 159-169.
10. Catherinet MD, Dumont S, Mayaki AA (1963) Millet and sorghum in Niger. Cultivation water requirements, soil and climate, limiting factors. L'Agronomie Tropicale 18: 108-113.
11. Cochemé J, Franquin P (1967) An agroclimatological survey of a semi-arid area in Africa south of the Sahara. Technical note No. 86. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.
12. Dai A, Lamb PJ, Trenberth KE, Hulme M, Jones PD, Xie P (2004) The recent Sahel drought is real. Int J Climatol 24: 1323-1331.
13. Der Megreditchian G (1992) Le traitement statistique des donnée Multidimensionnelles. Application à la météorologie. Cours et Manuel No 8. Tome 1. Météo France, France. p. 287.
14. Diedhiou A, Janicot S, Viltard A, de Felice P, Laurent H (1999) Easterly wave regimes and associated convection over West Africa and the tropical Atlantic: results from NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses. Clim Dyn 15: 795-822.
15. Dieng O, Roucou P, Louvet S (2008) Variabilité intra-saisonnière des précipitations au Sénégal (1951-1996). Sécheresse, 19(2): 87-93.
16. Easterling RD, Alexander LV, Mokssit A, Determmerman V (2003) CCI/CLIVAR workshop to develop priority climate indices. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 8: 1403-1407.
17. Fall S, Niyogi D, Semazzi FHM (2006) Analysis of mean climate conditions in Senegal (1971-1998). Earth Interact 10(5): 1-40.
18. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) (1978) Report on the agroecological zones project. World Soil Resource Report N° 48. Rome. FAO.
19. Frappart F et al (2009) Rainfall regime across the Sahel band in the Gourma region, Mali. J Hydrol. doi: 10. 1016/j. jhydrol. 2009. 03. 007.
20. Gaye A, Viltard A, De Félice P (2005) Lignes de grains et pluies en Afrique de l'Ouest: part des lignes de grains à la pluie totale des étés 1986 et 1987. Sécheresse 16(4): 269-273.
21. Grist PJ, Nicholson ES (2001) A study of the dynamical factors influencing rainfall variability in the West African Sahel. J Clim 14: 1337-1359.
22. Gueye M, Sivakumar MVK (1992) Analyse de la longueur de la saison culturale en fonction de la date de début des pluies au Sénégal. Compte rendu des travaux No 2. Niamey (Niger): Centre sahélien de l'ICRISAT, 1992. Available at: http://library. wur. nl/isric/fulltext/ISRIC_13235. pdf.
23. Hachigonta S, Reason CJC, Tadross M (2008) An analysis of onset date and rainy season duration over Zambia. Theor Appl Climatol 91: 229-243. doi: 10. 1007/s00704-007-0306-4.
24. Hirsch RM, Helsel DR, Cohn TA, Gilroy EJ (1993) Statistical analysis of hydrologic data. In: Maidment DR (ed) Handbook of hydrology. McGraw-Hill, New York, pp 17. 1-17. 55.
25. IPCC (2007) Climate change: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. p. 996.
26. Janicot S, Mounier F, Diedhiou A (2008) Les ondes atmosphériques d'échelle synoptique dans la mousson d'Afrique de l'Ouest et centrale: ondes d'est et ondes de Kelvin. Sécheresse 19(1): 13-22. doi: 10. 1684/sec. 2008. 0115.
27. Katz RW, Glantz MH (1986) Anatomy of a rainfall index. Mon Weather Rev 114: 764-771.
28. L'Hôte Y, Mahé G, Somé B, Triboulet JP (2002) Analysis of Sahelian rainfall index from 1896 to 2000; the drought continues. J Hydrol Sci 47(4): 563-572.
29. Lanà X, Martinez MD, Burgueno A, Serra C, Martin-Vide J, Gomez L (2008) Spatial and temporal patterns of dry spell lengths in the Iberian peninsula for the second half of the twentieth century. Theor Appl Climatol 91: 99-116.
30. Laurent H, D'Amato N, Lebel T (1998) How important is the contribution of the mesoscale convective complexes to the Sahelian rainfall? Phys Chem Earth 23(5-6): 629-633. doi: 10. 1016/S0079-1946(98)00099-8.
31. Le Barbé L, Lebel T, Tapsoba D (2002) Rainfall variability in West Africa during the years 1950-90. J Climate 15(2): 187-202.
32. Le Houerou HN (1992) Relations entre la variabilité des précipitations et celle des productions primaires et secondaires en zone aride. In: L'aridité, une contrainte au développement. Didactiques. Orstom editions, Paris.
33. Lebel T, Ali A (2009) Recent trends in the Central and Western Sahel rainfall regime (1990-2007). J Hydrol. doi: 10. 1016/j. jhydrol. 2008. 11. 030.
34. Lebel T, Parker D J, C Flamant et al. (2009) The AMMA field campaigns: Multiscale and multidisciplinary observations in the West African region. Q J R Meteorol Soc. doi: 10. 1002/qj. 486.
35. Lilliefors H (1967) On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for normality with mean and variance unknown. J Am Stat Assoc 62: 399-402.
36. Misra AN, Misra M (1991) Physiological responses of pearl millet to agroclimatic conditions determining grain formation and yield. Environmental Contamination and Hygiene 165-175.
37. Moron V, Robertson, Ward MN (2006) Seasonal Predictability and spatial coherence of rainfall characteristics in the tropical setting of Senegal. Mon Weather Rev 134: 3248-3262.
38. Mounier F, Kiladis G, Janicot S (2007) Analysis of the dominant mode of convectively coupled Kelvin waves in the West African Monsoon. J clim 20: 1487-14503.
39. New M, Hewitson B, Stephenson DB et al (2006) Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa. J Geophys Res 111: D14102. doi: 10. 1029/2005JD006289.
40. Nicholson SE (1983) Sub-Sahara rainfall in the year 1976-1980: evidence of Continued drought. Mon Weather Rev 3: 1646-1654.
41. Nicholson SE (2005) On the question of the "recovery" of the rains in the West African Sahel. J Arid Environ 63: 615-641.
42. Nicholson SE (2009) On the factors modulating the intensity of the tropical rainbelt over West Africa. Int J Climatol 29: 673-689.
43. Nzeukou A, Sauvageot H (2002) Distribution of rainfall parameters near the coasts of France and Senegal. J Appl Meteorol 41: 69-82.
44. Oladipo EO, Kyari JD (1993) Fluctuations in the onset, termination, and length of the growing season in northern Nigeria. Theor Appl Climatol 47: 241-250.
45. Ozer P, Erpicum M, Demarée G, Vandiepenbeeck M (2003) The Sahelian drought may have ended during the 1990s. Hydro Sci J 48: 489-492.
46. Ozer P, Bodart C, Tychon B (2005) Climatic analysis of the Gouré area, eastern Niger: recent changes and environmental impacts. Cybergeo, Environnement, Nature, Paysage, article 308. Available at: http://www. cybergeo. eu/index3338. html.
47. Redelsperger J-L, Thorncroft C, Diedhiou A, Lebel T, Parker D, Polcher J (2006) African monsoon, multidisciplinary analysis (AMMA): an International research project and field campaign. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87(12): 1739-1746.
48. Reed RJ, Norquist DC, Recker EE (1977) The structure and characteristics of African easterly wave disturbances as observed during Phase III of Gate. Mon Weather Rev 105: 317-333.
49. Salack S (2007) Intra-seasonal to seasonal variability of simulated rainfall in the perspectives of agricultural impact assessment studies for the Sahel. M. Sc. Research Dissertation, University Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar, Senegal. p. 60.
50. Salack S, Muller B, Gaye A T, Sylla C, Fall M (2009a) Updated space-time rainfall regimes and agro-climatological features in Senegal. Work presented at the 3rd International AMMA Conference, Ouagadougou, 20-24 July 2009.
51. Salack S, Muller B, Gaye A T, Hourdin F (2009b) Multi-scale intra-seasonal characterization of dry spells in Senegal and their implication in the rainy season attributes. Work presented at the 3rd International AMMA Conference, Ouagadougou, 20-24 July 2009.
52. Sane T, Diop M, Sagna P (2008) Etude de la variabilité de la saison pluvieuse au Sud en Haute-Casamance (Sud-Sénégal). Sécheresse 19(1): 23-28.
53. Sarr B, Traoré S, Salack S (2006) Evaluation de l'incidence des changements climatiques sur les rendements des cultures céréalières en Afrique soudano sahélienne. Centre Régional Agrhymet, CILSS, Niamey. p. 100.
54. Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89: 153-180.
55. Sene S, Ozer P (2002) Evolution pluviométrique et relation inondations-évènements pluvieux au Sénégal. Bull-Soc geÂogr LieÁge 42: 27-33.
56. Sivakumar MVK (1988) Predicting rainy season potential from the onset of rains in Southern Sahelian and Sudanian climatic zones of West Africa. Agric Fores Meteor 42: 295-305.
57. Sivakumar MVK (1992) Empirical analysis of dry-spells for agricultural applications in West Africa. J Climate 5: 532-539.
58. Sivakumar MVK, Valentin C (1997) Agroecological zones and the assessment of crop production potential. Phil Trans R Soc Lond B 352: 907-916.
59. Smith JW, Reynolds AE, Pratt AS, Salack S et al (2011) Observations of an 11 September Sahelian Squall Line and Saharan Air Layer Outbreak during NAMMA-06. Atmos Chem Phys (in press).
60. Stern R, Rijks D, Dale I, Knock J (2006) Instat Climatic Guide. University of Reading, Reading, p 330.
61. Sultan B, Janicot S (2004) La variabilité climatique en Afrique de l'Ouest aux échelles intrasaisonnières. I: mise en place de la mousson et variabilité intra-saisonnière de la convection. Sécheresse 15: 321-330.
62. Sultan B, Baron C, Dingkhun M, Sarr B, Janicot (2005) Agricultural impacts of large-scale variability of the West African monsoon. Agric For Meteorol 128(1-2): 93-110.
63. Viltard A, de Félice P (1979) Statistical analysis of wind velocity in an easterly wave over West Africa. Mon Weather Rev 107: 1320-1327.
64. Ward MN (1998) Diagnosis and short-lead time prediction of summer rainfall in tropical North Africa at interannual and multi-decadal time scales. J Climate 11: 3167-3191.
65. Yue S, Pilon P (2004) A comparison of the power of the t test, Mann-Kendall and bootstrap tests for trend detection. Hydrol Sci J 49(1): 21-36.