Japan's decline relative to China: Scenarios and implications for East Asia

Political Science

Volumn 62, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 146-165

  Yang, Jian ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF AUCKLAND   (New Zealand)

Author keywords

East Asia; relational power; Sino Japanese relations; soft power; structural power

Indexed keywords

EID: 79751485897     PISSN: 00323187     EISSN: 20410611     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0032318710384045     Document Type: Article

References (105)

1. Peter Willetts, 'Transnational Actors and International Organizations in Global Politics', in John Baylis, Steven Smith and Patricia Owens (eds), The Globalization of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations, 4th edn (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 343.
2. Chris Brown, Understanding International Relations, 2nd edn (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2001), p. 89.
3. Ibid., pp. 89-90.
4. Ibid., pp. 90-1.
5. Ibid., pp. 91-2.
6. Ibid., p. 97.
7. Ibid., pp. 97-9.
8. Joseph S. Nye Jr., Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics, 1st edn (New York: Public Affairs, 2004), p. x.
9. Joseph S. Nye Jr. and Wang Jishi, 'Hard Decisions on Soft Power: Opportunities and Difficulties for Chinese Soft Power', Harvard International Review, Vol. 31, No. 2 (Summer 2009), p. 18.
10. Avery Goldstein, 'Great Expectations: Interpreting China's Arrival', International Security, Vol. 22, No. 3 (Winter 1997), pp. 54-5.
11. Stuart Harris, 'The People's Republic of China's Quest for Great Power Status: A Long and Winding Road', in Hung-mao Tien and Yun-han Chu (eds), China under Jiang Zemin (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2000), p. 165.
12. Goldstein, 'Great Expectations', p. 37.
13. Guo Wanchao, Zhongguo Jueqi (Rise of China) (Nanchang, Jiangxi: Jiangxi People's Press, 2004), p. 24.
14. Jason T. Shaplen and James Laney, 'Washington's Eastern Sunset: The Decline of U.S. Power in Northeast Asia', Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 6 (November-December 2007), p. 91.
15. Kentaro Sakuwa, 'A Not So Dangerous Dyad: China's Rise and Sino-Japanese Rivalry', International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, Vol. 9 (2009), p. 513.
16. US Department of State, 'Background Note: China', January 2009. Available at: www.state. gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/18902.htm.
17. Hiroko Tabuchi, 'Chinese Economic Juggernaut Is Gaining on Japan', New York Times, 2 October 2009. Available at: www.nytimes.com/2009/10/02/business/ economy/02yen. html.
18. 'Are You a Globalization Junkie?' Foreign Policy, No. 172 (May-June 2009), p. 30.
19. Yeo Lay Hwee, 'Japan, ASEAN, and the Construction of an East Asian Community', Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 28, No. 2(August 2006), p. 265.
20. Ibid..
21. Jörn Dosch, 'Southeast Asia's Security and Political Outlook', in Michael J. Montesano and Lee Poh Onn (eds), Regional Outlook: Southeast Asia 2010-2011 (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2010), p. 7.
22. ASEAN-5 refers to the five founding members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN): Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
23. Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, 'Challenge and Opportunity', New Straits Times, 17 September 2003, p. 10.
24. Robert Madsen, 'Expect No Help from Japan', World Policy Journal, Vol. 15, No. 3 (1998), pp. 50-5.
25. Yul Sohn, 'Japan's New Regionalism: China Shock, Values, and the East Asian Community', Asian Survey, Vol. 50, No. 3 (2010), p. 504.
26. Xinhua, 'Asia's Regional Currency Swap Plan Comes into Effect', China Daily, 24 March 2010. Available at: www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-03/24/ content-9637200.htm.
27. Wilfrido V. Villacorta, 'Japan's Asian Identity: Concerns for ASEAN-Japan Relations', ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol. 11, No. 1 (July 1994), pp. 79-92.
28. Aurelia George Mulgan, 'Why Japan Can't Lead', World Policy Journal, Vol. 26, No. 2 (Summer 2009), p. 102.
29. Evan S. Medeiros and M. Taylor Fravel, 'China's New Diplomacy', Foreign Affairs, Vol. 82, No. 6 (November-December 2003), p. 23.
30. Ibid..
31. Rao Geping, 'Guoji falu zhixu yu Zhongguo de heping fazhan' ('The International Legal Order and China's Peaceful Development'), Waijiao Pinglun (Foreign Affairs Review),No. 6 (December 2005), p. 51.
32. Rosemary Foot, 'Chinese Strategies in a US-Hegemonic Global Order: Accommodating and Hedging', International Affairs, Vol. 82, No. 1 (2006), pp. 82-3.
33. As cited in Pang Zhongying, 'China, My China', National Interest, No. 83 (Spring 2006), p. 9.
34. As quoted in Liu Yantang and Liu Xinyu, 'Guoji biange: Shijie yu Zhongguo de zhanlue hudong' ('International Changes: Strategic Interactions Between the World and China'), Liaowang Xinwen Zhoukan (Liaowang Weekly), No. 9 (28 February 2005), p. 28.
35. Men Honghua, 'Zhongguo jueqi yu guoji zhixu' ('The Rise of China and International Order'), Taipingyang Xuebao (Pacific Journal), No. 2 (2004), p. 13.
36. Nye and Wang, 'Hard Decisions on Soft Power', p. 19.
37. Ibid..
38. Ibid..
39. Ibid..
40. Ibid. p. 21.
41. Comments by a leading Japan expert from Singapore at a conference held in Hong Kong in June 2009.
42. Leszek Buszynski,'Sino-Japanese Relations: Interdependence, Rivalry and Regional Security', Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 31, No. 1 (April 2009), p. 163.
43. Reuters, 'China Overtakes Japan as No. 2 Economy', Chicago Tribune, 30 July 2010. Available at: www.chicagotribune.com/business/feed/sc-biz-0731-china- japan-20100730,0, 6262591.story.
44. Jim O'Neill and Tushar Poddar, 'Ten Things for India to Achieve its 2050 Potential', Global Economics Paper No. 169, Goldman Sachs, 18 June 2008, p. 4. Available at: www2.goldmansachs. com/ideas/brics/ten-things-doc.pdf.
45. Niall Ferguson, 'What "Chimerica" Hath Wrought', American Interest Online, January-February 2009. Available at: www.the-american-interest. com/article.cfm?piece=533.
46. China has clearly stated that it disagrees with the suggestion of a 'Group of Two'. At a meeting with visiting US President Barack Obama on 18 November 2009, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said that China was still a developing country with a huge population and had a long way to go before it became modernized. Wen stressed that 'We must always keep soberminded over it.' See Xinhua, 'Wen Jiabao: China disagrees to so-called G2'. Available at: www.chinatoday.com.cn/ctenglish/se/txt/2009-11/19/content-230354.htm.
47. Avery Goldstein, Rising to the Challenge: China's Grand Strategy (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2005), p. 30.
48. Ibid., p. 31.
49. Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981), p. 15.
50. Ibid. p. 13.
51. Immanuel Wallerstein. 'The Three Instances of Hegemony in the History of the Capitalist World-Economy', in G. T. Crane and A. Amawi (eds), The Theoretical Evolution of International Political Economy: A Reader, 2nd edn (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 244.
52. Christopher Chase-Dunn and Peter Grimes, 'World-Systems Analysis', Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 21 (1995), pp. 387-481.
53. Robert W. Cox, 'Gramsci, Hegemony and International Relations: An Essay in Method', Millennium, Vol. 12, No. 2 (1983), pp. 171-2.
54. Robert W. Cox, 'Global Perestroika', in Crane and Amawi, The Theoretical Evolution of International Political Economy, p. 162.
55. O'Neill and Poddar, 'Ten Things for India to Achieve its 2050 Potential'.
56. Ellen L. Frost, James J. Przystup and Phillip C. Saunders, 'China's Rising Influence in Asia: Implications for U.S. Policy', Strategic Forum, No. 231 (April 2008), pp. 1-2.
57. Men Honghua, 'East Asian Order Formation and Sino-Japanese Relations', Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, Vol. 17, No. 1 (Winter 2010), pp. 47-82, at pp. 70-1.
58. Xinhua, 'China-Japan Economic, Trade Ties Have Great Potential to Tap', 4 May 2008. Available at: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-05/04/content- 8104901.htm.
59. Buszynski, 'Sino-Japanese Relations: Interdependence, Rivalry and Regional Security', p. 153.
60. Shaplen and Laney, 'Washington's Eastern Sunset', p. 83.
61. Buszynski, 'Sino-Japanese Relations: Interdependence, Rivalry and Regional Security', p. 164.
62. Aurelia George Mulgan citing Joel Rathus in 'Breaking the Mould: Japan's Subtle Shift from Exclusive Bilateralism to Modest Minilateralism', Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 30, No. 1 (2008), p. 60.
63. Shaplen and Laney, 'Washington's Eastern Sunset', p. 87.
64. Jian Yang, 'Two Tigers on the Same Mountain: China's Security Relations with Japan', in Michael Heazle and Nick Knight (eds), China-Japan Relations in the Twenty-First Century: Creating a Future Past? (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar), pp. 127-48.
65. 'China Fears Taiwan May Join Japan-U.S. Alliance', Yomiuri Shimbun/Daily Yomiuri, 14 August 2001.
66. Reinhard Drifte, Japan's Security Relations with China since 1989: From Balancing to Bandwagoning?' (London: RoutledgeCurzon, 2003), p. 68.
67. Xinhua, 'Envoy Urges Japan to Mend Ties', China Daily, 1 September 2001. Available at: www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2001-09/01/content-80353.htm.
68. Spencer Swartz and Shai Oster, 'China Tops U.S. in Energy Use', Wall Street Journal, 18 July 2010. Available at: http://online.wsj.com/article/ SB10001424052748703720504575376712353150310.html?mod=googlenews-wsj.
69. 'China's Crude Oil Import Dependence Exceeds 50%, Raises Security Concerns', Global Times, 29March 2010. Available at: http://business. globaltimes.cn/china-economy/2010-03/ 517059.html.
70. James Manicom, 'Sino-Japanese Cooperation in the East China Sea: Limitations and Prospects', Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 30, No. 3 (2008), pp. 455-78, at p. 471.
71. Funabashi Yoichi quotes Gerald L. Curtis in 'Tokyo's Depression Diplomacy', Foreign Affairs, Vol. 77, No. 6 (November-December 1998), p. 29.
72. Sohn, 'Japan's New Regionalism', pp. 505-7.
73. Christian Wirth, 'China, Japan, and East Asian Regional Cooperation: The views of "Self" and "Other" from Beijing and Tokyo', International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, Vol. 9 (2009), p. 492.
74. Sakuwa, 'A Not So Dangerous Dyad', pp. 514-15.
75. Chu Shulong and Wang Zaibang, 'Guanyu guoji xingshi he wo duiwai zhanlue ruogan zhongda wenti de sikao' ('Some Thought on Several Major Issues about the International Situation and our External Strategy'), Xiandai Guoji Guangxi (Contemporary International Relations), No. 8 (1999), p. 6.
76. Denny Roy cites Akira Iriye in 'The Sources and Limits of Sino-Japanese Tensions', Survival, Vol. 47, No. 2 (Summer 2005), p. 208.
77. Takashi Inoguchi and Paul Bacon, 'Japan's Emerging Role as a "Global Ordinary Power"', International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, Vol. 6 (2006), pp. 1-21. (Pubitemid 43124961)
78. Sakuwa, 'A Not So Dangerous Dyad', p. 510.
79. Christopher M. Dent, 'What Region to Lead? Developments in East Asian Regionalism and Questions of Regional Leadership', in Christopher M. Dent (ed.), China, Japan and Regional Leadership in East Asia (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2008), p. 23.
80. Ibid..
81. Shaun Breslin, 'Towards a Sino-centric Regional Order? Empowering China and Constructing Regional Order(s)', in Dent, China, Japan and Regional Leadership in East Asia, p. 150.
82. Bhubhindar Singh, 'ASEAN's Perceptions of Japan', Asian Survey, Vol. 42, No. 2 (February 2002), pp. 277-8.
83. Sueo Sudo, 'Japan's ASEAN Policy: Reactive or Proactive in the Face of a Rising China in East Asia?', Asian Perspective, Vol. 33, No. 1 (2009), p. 155.
84. Ming Wan, Sino-Japanese Relations: Interaction, Logic, and Transformation (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2006), p. 111.
85. Caroline Rose, Sino-Japanese Relations: Facing the Past, Looking to the Future? (London: RoutledgeCurzon, 2005), p. 125.
86. Reiji Yoshida, 'Wen Gives Historic, Upbeat Diet Speech: Premier Asks Both Nations to Reconcile', Japan Times, 13 April 2007. Available at: http://search.japantimes.co.jp/mail/ nn20070413a1.html.
87. Clarissa Oon, 'China Uses TV to Signal Warmer Ties with Japan', Straits Times, 30 January 2007. Available at: www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp? parentid=62509.
88. 'Joint Statement between the Government of Japan and the Government of the People's Republic of China on Comprehensive Promotion of a "Mutually Beneficial Relationship Based on Common Strategic Interests"', 7May 2008, Tokyo. Available at: www.mofa.go.jp/ region/asia-paci/China/joint0805.html.
89. Li Xiaokun, 'Japan and China Ties Rated High in Survey', China Daily, 27 August 2009. Available at: www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-08/27/content- 8620873.htm.
90. Hwee, 'Japan, ASEAN, and the Construction of an East Asian Community', p. 271.
91. Exchange with a Chinese analyst from China Academy of Social Sciences in Hong Kong in June 2009.
92. Furukawa Eiichi, 'Changes in Southeast Asian Views of Japan', Japan Echo, Vol. 20, No. 3 (Autumn 1993), pp. 45-52.
93. Singh, 'ASEAN's Perceptions of Japan', p. 292.
94. Jusuf Wanandi, 'US-Japan and China Relations in the Asia Pacific', Indonesian Quarterly, Vol. 22, No. 4 (1994), p. 370.
95. Nayan Chanda, 'Why They Worry', Far Eastern Economic Review, 25 June 1992, p. 18.
96. As cited in Singh, 'ASEAN's Perceptions of Japan', p. 292.
97. Ibid., pp. 292-3.
98. Sudo, 'Japan's ASEAN Policy', pp. 137-58.
99. Men, 'East Asian Order Formation and Sino-Japanese Relations', p. 80.
100. 'China Focus: Wealth Gap Challenges China's Endeavor to Build Harmonious Society', People's Daily Online, 5 October 2005. Available at: http://english.people.com.cn/200510/05/eng20051005-212586.html.
101. Yu Jiangrong and Yu Debao, 'China Civil Society Report: Mass Incidents in China', Policy Forum Online, 26 August 2008. Available at: www.nautilus.org/ fora/security/08065YuYu.html.
102. Tracy Quek, 'China Riots "Won't Lead to Rebellion"', Straits Times, 12 February 2009. Available at: www.asianewsnet.net/news.php?sec= 1&id=3903.
103. Shaplen and Laney, 'Washington's Eastern Sunset', p. 86.
104. Funabashi, 'Tokyo's Depression Diplomacy', p. 32.
105. Men, 'East Asian Order Formation and Sino-Japanese Relations', p. 80.