High temperature triggers latent variation among individuals: Oviposition rate and probability for outbreaks

PLoS ONE

Volumn 6, Issue 1, 2011, Pages

  Björkman, Christer ^a   Kindvall, Oskar ^a   Höglund, Solveig ^a   Lilja, Anna ^b   Bärring, Lars ^b   Eklund, Karin ^a  

^a SWEDISH UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES   (Sweden)

^b SWEDISH METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Sweden)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BEETLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; EGG LAYING; EPIDEMIC; FEMALE; FERTILITY; HERITABILITY; HIGH TEMPERATURE; INSECT GENETICS; NONHUMAN; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PROBABILITY; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; SPECIES EXTINCTION; SUMMER; ANIMAL; CLUTCH SIZE; HEAT; HISTOLOGY;

SALIX ARBUSCULOIDES;

ANIMALS; BEETLES; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLUTCH SIZE; HOT TEMPERATURE; OVIPOSITION; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PROBABILITY;

EID: 79551563595     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0016590     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Andrewartha HG, Birch LC (1954) The distribution and abundance of animals, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 782 p.
2. Parmesan C, Ryrholm N, Stefanesus C, Hill JK, Thomas CD, et al. (1999) Polewards shift in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with global warming. Nature 399: 579-583.
3. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, et al. (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57-60.
4. Thuiller W (2004) Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change. Global Change Biol 10: 2020-2027.
5. Wilson RJ, Gutierrez D, Gutierrez J, Monserrat VJ (2007) An elevational shift in butterfly species richness and composition accompanying recent climate change. Global Change Biol 13: 1873-1887.
6. Williams DW, Liebhold AM (1995) Forest defoliators and climate change: potential changes in spatial distribution of outbreaks of western spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) and gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae). Environ Entomol 24: 1-9.
7. Fleming RA, Candau JN (1998) Influences of climatic change on some ecological processes of an insect outbreak system in Canada's boreal forests and the implications for biodiversity. Environ Monit Assess 49: 235-249.
8. Tenow O, Nilssen AC, Holmgren B, Elverum F (1999) An insect (Argyresthia retinella, Lep., Yponomeutidae) outbreak in northern birch forests, released by climatic changes? J Appl Ecol 36: 111-122.
9. Shaver GR, Canadell J, Chapin III FS, Gurevitch J, Harte J, et al. (2000) Global warming and terrestrial ecosystems: a conceptual framework for analysis. BioScience 50: 871-882.
10. McLaughlin JF, Hellmann JJ, Boggs CL, Ehrlich PR (2002) Climate change hastens population extinctions. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 99: 6070-6074.
11. Logan JA, Re ́gniere J, Powel JA (2003) Assessing the impacts of global warming on forest pest dynamics. Front Ecol Environ 1: 130-137.
12. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, et al. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148.
13. Visser ME (2008) Keeping up with a warm world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change. Proc Roy Soc Lond B Biol 275: 649-659.
14. Logan J A, Wollkind DJ, Hoyt SC, Tanigoshi LK (1976) An analytical model for description of temperature dependent rate phenomena in arthropods. Environ Entomol 5: 1133-1140.
15. Roy M, Brodeur J, Cloutier C (2003) Effect of temperature on intrinsic rates of natural increase (rm) of a coccinelid and its spider mite prey. BioControl 48: 57-72.
16. Berggren A, Björkman C, Bylund H, Ayres M (2009) The distribution and abundance of animal populations in a climate of uncertainty. Oikos 118: 1121-1126.
17. Rall BC, Vucic-Pestic O, Ehnes RB, Emmerson M, Brose U (2010) Temperature, predator-prey interaction strength and population stability. Clobal Change Biol 16: 2145-2157.
18. Holopainen, JK, Kainulainen, P (2004) Reproductive capacity of the grey pine aphid and allocation response of Scots pine seedlings across temperature gradients: a test of hypotheses predicting outcomes of global warming. Can J For Res 34: 94-102.
19. Harrington R, Fleming RA, Woiwod IP (2001) Climate change impacts on insect management and conservation in temperate regions: can they be predicted? Agr Forest Entomol 3: 233-240.
20. Bale JS, Masters GJ, Hodkinson ID, Awmack C, Bezemer TM, et al. (2002) Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Global Change Biol 8: 1-16.
21. Ohgushi T (1995) Impact of life-history evolution on population dynamics: predicting the presence of maternal effects. In: Cappuccino N, Price PW, eds. Population dynamics: New approaches and synthesis. San Diego: Academic Press. pp 251-275.
22. Rossiter MC (1996) Incidence and consequences of inherited environmental effects. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 27: 451-476.
23. Krebs C J (1978) A review of the Chitty hypothesis of population regulation. Canadian J Zool 56: 2463-2480.
24. Bolnick DII, Svanbäck R, Fordyce JA, Yang LH, Davis JM, et al. (2003) The ecology of individuals: incidence and implications of individual specialization. Am Nat 161: 1-28.
25. Boonstra R, Boag PT (1987) A test of the Chitty hypothesis: inheritance of lifehistory traits in meadow voles Microtus pennsylvanicus. Evolution 41: 929-947.
26. Ruohomäki K, Haukioja E (1992) Interpopulation differences in pupal size and fecundity are not associated with occurrence of outbreaks in Epirrita autumnata (Lepidoptera, Geometridae). Ecol Entomol 17: 69-75.
27. Barbraud C, Weimerskirch H (2005) Environmental conditions and breeding experience affect costs of reproduction in blue petrels. Ecology 86: 682-692.
28. Berryman AA (1987) The theory and classification of outbreaks. In: Barbosa P, Schultz JC, eds. Insect outbreaks. New York: Academic Press. pp 3-30.
29. Larsson S, Ekbom B, Björkman C (2000) Influence of plant quality on pine sawfly population dynamics. Oikos 89: 440-450.
30. Roff DA (1992) The evolution of life histories: Theory and analysis. New York: Chapman and Hall. 535 p.
31. Nakic ́enovic ́ N, Swart R, eds (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. A special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. 612 p.
32. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment. Report of the intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, et al., editors).Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. 996 p.
33. Maisner N (1974) Chrysomelidae, Blattkä fer. In: Schwenke W, ed. Die Forstschädlinge Europas, Bd2. Hamburg: Paul Parey. pp 202-236.
34. Björkman C, Bengtsson B, Hä ggström H (2000a) Localized outbreak of a willow leaf beetle: plant vigor or natural enemies? Popul Ecol 42: 91-96.
35. Dalin P, Kindvall O, Björkman C (2009) Reduced population control of an insect pest in managed willow monocultures. PLoS ONE 4: e5487.Doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0005487.
36. Kendall DA, Wiltshire CW, Butcher M (1996) Phenology and population dynamics of willow beetles (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in short rotation coppice willows in Long Ashton. ETSU B/M4/00487/14/REP. Harwell: Harwell Laboratories. pp 44.
37. Björkman C, Höglund S, Eklund K, Larsson S (2000b) Effects of leaf beetle damage on stem wood production in coppicing willow. Agr Forest Entomol 2: 131-139.
38. Björkman C, Bommarco R, Eklund K Höglund S (2004) Harvesting disrupts biological control of herbivores in a short-rotation coppice system. Ecol Appl 14: 1624-1633.
39. Björkman C, Eklund K (2006) Factors affecting willow leaf beetles (Phratora vulgatissima) when selecting overwintering sites. Agric Forest Entomol 8: 97-101.
40. SMHI (1999) Weather and Water (Väder och Vatten). June 1999, (in Swedish). 8 p.
41. Kjellström E, Bä rring L, Gollvik S, Hansson U, Jones C, et al. (2005) A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). Reports Meteorology and Climatology, No 108, Dec 2005. 54 p.
42. Samuelsson P, Jones CG, Wille ́n U, Ullerstig A, Gollvik S, et al. (2011) The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3: Model description and performance. Tellus A 63: DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00478.x.
43. De ́que ́ M (2007) Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario: Model results and statistical correction according to observed values. Global Planet Change 57: 16-26.
44. Uppala SM, Kallberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, da Costa Bechtold V, et al. (2005) The ERA-40 Re-analysis. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 131: 2961-3012.
45. Kjellström E, Nikulin G, Hansson U, Strandberg G, Ullerstig A (2011) 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Tellus A 63: DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00475.x.
46. De ́que ́ M, Rowell DP, Luthi D, Giorgi F, Christensen JH, et al. (2007) An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Climatic Change 81: 53-70.
47. De ́que ́ M, Dreveton C, Braun A, Cariolle D (1994) The Arpege/ifs atmosphere model - a contribution to the French community climate modeling. Clim Dynam 10: 249-266.
48. Bleck R, Rooth C, Hu DM, Smith LT (1992) Salinity-driven thermocline transients in a wind-forced and thermohaline-forced isopycnic coordinate model of the North-Atlantic. J Phys Oceanogr 22: 1486-1505.
49. Collins WD, Bitz CM, Blackmon ML, Bonan GB, Bretheron CS, et al. (2006) The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). J Climate 19: 2122-2143.
50. Gibelin AL, Deque M (2003) Anthropogenic climate change over the Mediterranean region simulated by a global variable resolution model. Clim Dynam 20: 327-339.
51. Jungclaus JH, Keenlyside N, Botzet M, Haak H, Luo JJ, et al. (2006) Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J Climate 19: 3952-3972.
52. Roeckner E, Brokopf R, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Hagemann S, et al. (2006) Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model. J Climate 19: 3771-3791.
53. Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA, Banks H, Gregory JM, et al. (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim Dynam 16: 147-168.
54. Hourdin F, Musat I, Bony S, Braconnot P, Codron F, et al. (2006) The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection. Clim Dynam 27: 787-813.
55. Cam E, Link WA, Cooch EG, Monnat J, Danchin E (2002) Individual covariation in life-history traits: seeing the trees despite the forest. Am Nat 159: 96-105.
56. Nilssen A, Tenow O (1990) Diapause, embryo growth and supercooling capacity of Epirrita autumnata eggs from northern Fennoscandia. Entomol Exp Appl 57: 39-55.
57. Peterson NA, Nilssen AC (1996) Nonlinear, temperature-dependent development of autumnal moth pupae, Epirrita autumnata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae). Environ Entomol 25: 147-154.
58. Watt WB (1992) Eggs, enzymes, and evolution: natural genetic variants change insect fecundity. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 89: 10608-10612.
59. Gienapp P, Teplitsky C, Alho JS, Mills JA, Merilä J (2008) Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses. Mol Ecol 17: 167-178.
60. Chu Y-I (1986) The migration of diamondback moth. In: Griggs TD, ed. Diamondback moth management; Proceedings of the first international workshop, Taiwan. pp 77-82.