메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 48, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 355-367

Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models

Author keywords

Fan charts; Forecasting; Model risk; Model selection criteria; Plausibility

Indexed keywords


EID: 79551562226     PISSN: 01676687     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2010.12.005     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (218)

References (28)
  • 1
    • 79952489556 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: a forecast evaluation. Economics Department Working Paper 08-18, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
    • Bauwens, L., Sucarrat, G., 2008. General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: a forecast evaluation. Economics Department Working Paper 08-18, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
    • (2008)
    • Bauwens, L.1    Sucarrat, G.2
  • 2
    • 0036868984 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline
    • Booth H., Maindonald J., Smith L. Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline. Population Studies 2002, 56:325-336.
    • (2002) Population Studies , vol.56 , pp. 325-336
    • Booth, H.1    Maindonald, J.2    Smith, L.3
  • 3
    • 79952489624 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Age-time interactions in mortality projection: applying Lee-Carter to Australia. Working Papers in Demography, The Australian National University.
    • Booth, H., Maindonald, J., Smith, L., 2002b. Age-time interactions in mortality projection: applying Lee-Carter to Australia. Working Papers in Demography, The Australian National University.
    • (2002)
    • Booth, H.1    Maindonald, J.2    Smith, L.3
  • 4
    • 33750452133 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the variants of the Lee-Carter method of forecasting mortality: a multi-country comparison
    • Booth H., Maindonald J., Smith L. Evaluation of the variants of the Lee-Carter method of forecasting mortality: a multi-country comparison. New Zealand Population Review 2005, 31:13-34.
    • (2005) New Zealand Population Review , vol.31 , pp. 13-34
    • Booth, H.1    Maindonald, J.2    Smith, L.3
  • 5
    • 0037146860 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected life tables
    • Brouhns N., Denuit M., Vermunt J.K. A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected life tables. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 2002, 31:373-393.
    • (2002) Insurance: Mathematics and Economics , vol.31 , pp. 373-393
    • Brouhns, N.1    Denuit, M.2    Vermunt, J.K.3
  • 6
    • 79952486396 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparative study of parametric mortality projection models. Actuarial Research Paper No. 196. Cass Business School.
    • Butt, Z., Haberman, S., 2010. A comparative study of parametric mortality projection models. Actuarial Research Paper No. 196. Cass Business School.
    • (2010)
    • Butt, Z.1    Haberman, S.2
  • 7
    • 33845429030 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pricing death: frameworks for the valuation and securitization of mortality risk
    • Cairns A.J.G., Blake D., Dowd K. Pricing death: frameworks for the valuation and securitization of mortality risk. ASTIN Bulletin 2006, 36:79-120.
    • (2006) ASTIN Bulletin , vol.36 , pp. 79-120
    • Cairns, A.J.G.1    Blake, D.2    Dowd, K.3
  • 8
    • 33845430480 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A two-factor model for stochastic mortality with parameter uncertainty: theory and calibration
    • Cairns A.J.G., Blake D., Dowd K. A two-factor model for stochastic mortality with parameter uncertainty: theory and calibration. Journal of Risk and Insurance 2006, 73:687-718.
    • (2006) Journal of Risk and Insurance , vol.73 , pp. 687-718
    • Cairns, A.J.G.1    Blake, D.2    Dowd, K.3
  • 9
    • 54849423411 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling and management of mortality risk: a review
    • Cairns A.J.G., Blake D., Dowd K. Modelling and management of mortality risk: a review. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 2008, 2008(2-3):79-113.
    • (2008) Scandinavian Actuarial Journal , vol.2008 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 79-113
    • Cairns, A.J.G.1    Blake, D.2    Dowd, K.3
  • 10
    • 79952488801 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models. Pensions Institute Discussion Paper PI-0801.
    • Cairns, A.J.G., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G.D., Epstein, D., Khalaf-Allah, M., 2008b. Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models. Pensions Institute Discussion Paper PI-0801.
    • (2008)
    • Cairns, A.J.G.1    Blake, D.2    Dowd, K.3    Coughlan, G.D.4    Epstein, D.5    Khalaf-Allah, M.6
  • 12
    • 29144521083 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography
    • Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham
    • Campos J., Ericsson N.R., Hendry D.F. General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography. General-to-Specific Modeling 2005, vol. 1. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham.
    • (2005) General-to-Specific Modeling , vol.1
    • Campos, J.1    Ericsson, N.R.2    Hendry, D.F.3
  • 13
    • 79952484358 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Continuous Mortality Investigation. CMI. Projecting future mortality: towards a proposal for a stochastic methodology. Working Paper 15.
    • Continuous Mortality Investigation. CMI. 2005. Projecting future mortality: towards a proposal for a stochastic methodology. Working Paper 15.
    • (2005)
  • 14
    • 79952485749 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Continuous Mortality Investigation. CMI. Stochastic projection methodologies: further progress and P-spline model features, example results and implications. Working Paper 20.
    • Continuous Mortality Investigation. CMI. 2006. Stochastic projection methodologies: further progress and P-spline model features, example results and implications. Working Paper 20.
    • (2006)
  • 15
    • 79952486844 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Continuous Mortality Investigation. CMI. Stochastic projection methodologies: Lee-Carter model features, example results and implications. Working Paper 25.
    • Continuous Mortality Investigation. CMI. 2007. Stochastic projection methodologies: Lee-Carter model features, example results and implications. Working Paper 25.
    • (2007)
  • 17
    • 79952484122 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A simple model of mortality trends aiming at universality: Lee Carter + cohort. Quantitative Finance Papers 1003.1802.
    • Debonneuil, E., 2010. A simple model of mortality trends aiming at universality: Lee Carter + cohort. Quantitative Finance Papers 1003.1802. http://www.arxiv.org.
    • (2010)
    • Debonneuil, E.1
  • 18
    • 31344477908 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extending the Lee-Carter model of mortality projection
    • De Jong P., Tickle L. Extending the Lee-Carter model of mortality projection. Mathematical Population Studies 2006, 13:1-18.
    • (2006) Mathematical Population Studies , vol.13 , pp. 1-18
    • De Jong, P.1    Tickle, L.2
  • 19
    • 34548260820 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Smoothing the Lee-Carter and Poisson log-bilinear models for mortality forecasting: a penalised log-likelihood approach
    • Delwarde A., Denuit M., Eilers P. Smoothing the Lee-Carter and Poisson log-bilinear models for mortality forecasting: a penalised log-likelihood approach. Statistical Modelling 2007, 7:29-48.
    • (2007) Statistical Modelling , vol.7 , pp. 29-48
    • Delwarde, A.1    Denuit, M.2    Eilers, P.3
  • 22
    • 33750436765 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach
    • Hyndman R.J., Ullah M.S. Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 2007, 51:4942-4956.
    • (2007) Computational Statistics & Data Analysis , vol.51 , pp. 4942-4956
    • Hyndman, R.J.1    Ullah, M.S.2
  • 24
    • 0035512765 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the performance of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality
    • Lee R., Miller T. Evaluating the performance of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality. Demography 2001, 38:537-549.
    • (2001) Demography , vol.38 , pp. 537-549
    • Lee, R.1    Miller, T.2
  • 25
    • 77955661147 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty in model forecasting: an extension to the classic Lee-Carter approach
    • Li J.S.-H., Hardy M.R., Tan K.S. Uncertainty in model forecasting: an extension to the classic Lee-Carter approach. ASTIN Bulletin 2009, 39:137-164.
    • (2009) ASTIN Bulletin , vol.39 , pp. 137-164
    • Li, J.S.-H.1    Hardy, M.R.2    Tan, K.S.3
  • 26
    • 0024856281 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting mortality: a parametrized time series approach
    • McNown R.F., Rogers A. Forecasting mortality: a parametrized time series approach. Demography 1989, 26:645-660.
    • (1989) Demography , vol.26 , pp. 645-660
    • McNown, R.F.1    Rogers, A.2
  • 28
    • 33646517294 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors
    • Renshaw A.E., Haberman S. A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 2006, 38:556-570.
    • (2006) Insurance: Mathematics and Economics , vol.38 , pp. 556-570
    • Renshaw, A.E.1    Haberman, S.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.