Probabilistic assessment of radiation risk for astronauts in space missions

Acta Astronautica

Volumn 68, Issue 7-8, 2011, Pages 747-759

  Kim, Myung Hee Y ^a   De Angelis, Giovanni ^b   Cucinotta, Francis A ^c  

^a UNIVERSITIES SPACE RESEARCH ASSOCIATION   (United States)

^b ISTITUTO SUPERIORE DI SANITÀ   (Italy)

^c NASA JOHNSON SPACE CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

Galactic cosmic radiation; Organ doses; Probabilistic risk assessment; Solar particle event

Indexed keywords

ACCURATE ESTIMATION; CANCER RISK; DOSE EQUIVALENT; EXTRA VEHICULAR ACTIVITIES; FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS; GALACTIC COSMIC RADIATIONS; GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS; HIGH ENERGY PROTON; HISTORICAL DATABASE; LUNAR ROVERS; MANNED SPACE EXPLORATION; MARS MISSIONS; MEDIUM ENERGY; MISSION DESIGN; NON-HOMOGENEOUS; OPERATIONAL PLANNING; ORGAN DOSES; POISSON MODEL; PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES; PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENTS; PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT; RADIATION EXPOSURE; RADIATION RISK; SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES; SOLAR CYCLE; SOLAR MODULATION; SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS; SPACE MISSIONS; SPACE RADIATION EXPOSURE; SPACE RADIATIONS; WHOLE-BODY DOSE;

COSMIC RAYS; COSMOLOGY; INTERPLANETARY FLIGHT; LUNAR MISSIONS; MANNED SPACE FLIGHT; MARTIAN SURFACE ANALYSIS; PROTONS; RADIATION PROTECTION; RATING; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK PERCEPTION; SOLAR ENERGY; SOLAR RADIATION; SPACE RESEARCH;

HEALTH RISKS;

EID: 79551509277     PISSN: 00945765     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2010.08.035     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. E.J. Parzen Stochastic Processes Third ed. 1967 Holden-Day, Inc. San Francisco
2. F.A. Cucinotta, and M. Durante Cancer risk from exposure to galactic cosmic rays: implications for space exploration by human beings Lancet Oncol. 7 2006 431 435
3. M. Durante, and F.A. Cucinotta Heavy ion carcinogenesis and human space exploration Nature Reviews, Cancer 8 2008 465 472
4. P. O'Neill BadhwarO'Neill galactic cosmic ray model update based on advanced composition explorer (ACE) energy spectra from 1997 to present Adv. Space Res. 37 2006 1727 1733
5. NCRP, Radiation protection guidance for activities in low-Earth orbit, Report no. 132, National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, Bethesda, MD, 2000.
6. G.L. Withbroe Solar activity cycle: history and predictions J. Spacecr. Rockets 26 6 1989 394 402
7. M.Y. Kim, J.W. Wilson, Examination of solar cycle statistical model and new prediction of solar cycle 23. NASA/TP-2000-210536, 2000.
8. M.Y. Kim, J.W. Wilson, F.A. Cucinotta, An improved solar cycle statistical model for the projection of near future sunspot cycles. NASA/TP-2004-212070, 2004.
9. M.Y. Kim, F.A. Cucinotta, and J.W. Wilson Mean occurrence frequency and temporal risk analysis of solar particle events Radiat. Meas. 41 2006 1115 1122
10. J.W. Wilson, M.Y. Kim, J.L. Shinn, H. Tai, F.A. Cucinotta, G.D. Badhwar, F.F. Badavi, W. Atwell Solar cycle variation and application to the space radiation environment, NASA/TP-1999-209369, 1999.
11. G.D. Badhwar, and P.M. O'Neill Improved model of galactic cosmic radiation for space exploration missions Nucl. Tracks Radiat. Meas. 20 3 1992 403 410
12. G.D. Badhwar, F.A. Cucinotta, and P.M. O'Neill An analysis of interplanetary space radiation exposure for various solar cycles Radiat. Res. 138 2 1994 201 208
13. C. Lopate, and J.A. Simpson The physics of cosmic ray modulation: heliospheric propagation during the 1987 minimum J. Geophys. Res. 96 A9 1991 15877 15898
14. R.A. Nymmik, M.I. Panasyuk, and A.A. Suslov Galactic cosmic ray flux simulation and prediction Adv. Space Res. 17 2 1996 19 30
15. S. Hu, M.Y. Kim, G.E. McClellan, and F.A. Cucinotta Modeling the Acute Health Effects of Astronauts from Exposure to Large Solar Particle Events Health Phys. J. 96 4 2009 465 476
16. F.A. Cucinotta Issues in risk assessment from solar particle events Radiat. Meas. 30 1999 261 268
17. J.N. Goswami, R.E. McGuire, R.C. Reedy, D. Lal, and R. Jha Solar flare protons and alpha particles during the last three solar cycles J. Geophys. Res. 93 A7 1988 7195 7205
18. M.Y. Kim, X. Hu, F.A. Cucinotta Effect of shielding materials from SPEs on the lunar and Mars surface, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, paper number AIAA 20056653, 2005.
19. M.Y. Kim, F.A. Cucinotta, and J.W. Wilson A temporal forecast of radiation environments for future space exploration missions Radiat. Environ. Biophys. 46 2007 95 100
20. M.Y. Kim, M.J. Hayat, A.H. Feiveson, and F.A. Cucinotta Prediction of frequency and exposure level of solar particle events Health Phys. J. 97 1 2009 68 81
21. F.A. Cucinotta, J.W. Wilson, F.F. Badavi Extension to the BRYNTRN code to monoenergetic light ion beams, NASA TP-3472, 1994.
22. J.W. Wilson, L.W. Townsend, J.E. Nealy, S.Y. Chun, B.S. Hong, W.W. Buck, S.L. Lamkin, B.D. Ganapole, F. Kahn, F.A. Cucinotta: BRYNTRN Baryon transport model. Washington DC, NASA Report no. TP-2887, 1989.
23. J.W. Wilson, L.W. Townsend, W. Schimmerling, G.S. Khandelwal, F. Khan, J.E. Nealy, F.A. Cucinotta, L.C. Simonsen, J.L. Shinn, J.W. Norbury Transport methods and interactions for space radiations, Washington DC, NASA Report no. RP 1257, 1991.
24. J.W. Wilson, F.F. Badave, F.A. Cucinotta, et al. HZETRN: Description of a free-space ion and nucleon transport and shielding computer program. NASA TP-3495, 1995.
25. F.A. Cucinotta, J.W. Wilson, P. Saganti, X. Hu, M.Y. Kim, T. Cleghorn, C. Zeitlin, and R.K. Tripathi Isotopic dependence of GCR fluence behind shielding Radiat. Meas. 41 2006 1235 1249
26. M.A. Shea, and D.F. Smart A summary of major proton events Sol. Phys. 127 1990 297 320
27. K.G. McCracken, G.A.M. Dreschhoff, and E.J. Zeller Solar cosmic ray events for the period 1561-1994 1. Identification in polar ice, 1561-1950 J. Geophys. Res. 106 A10 2001 21585 21598
28. G.E. Hale Magnetic field in Sun-spots Astrophys. J. 28 1908 315 343
29. H.W. Babcock The topology of the Sun's magnetic field and the 22-year cycle Astrophys. J. 133 2 1961 572 587
30. R.W. Noyes The Sun, Our Star 1982 Harvard University Press Cambridge, MA
31. ICRP Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. ICRP Publication 60 1990 Pergamon Press Inc. Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. ICRP Publication 60 1991 Pergamon Press Inc.
32. A.L. Ponomarev, H.N. Nounu, H.F. Hussein, M.Y. Kim, W. Atwell, F.A. Cucinotta, NASA-developed ProE-based tool for the raytracing of spacecraft geometry to determine radiation doses and particle fluxes in habitable areas of spacecraft and in the human body, NASA/TP-2007-214770, 2007.
33. H.N. Nounu, M.Y. Kim, A.L. Ponomarev, F.A. Cucinotta, The use of pro/engineer CAD software and fishbowl tool kit in ray-tracing analysis, NASA/TP-2009-214788, June 2009.
34. M.P. Billings, W.R. Yucker The computerized Anatomical Man (CAM) Model, NASA CR-134043, 1973.
35. NCRP, Operational radiation safety program for astronauts in low-Earth orbit: a basic framework. report no. 142, National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, Bethesda, MD, 2002.
36. ICRP Publication 103: the 2007 recommendations of the international commission on radiological protection, Annals of the ICRP, vol. 37/24, 2007.
37. J.W. Wilson, M.Y. Kim, G. De Angelis, F.A. Cucinotta, N. Yoshizawa, and F.F. Badavi Implementation of Gy-Eq for deterministic effects limitation in shield design J. Radiat. Res. 43 2002 S103 S106
38. NRC/NAS, National Research Council/National Academy of Sciences, Committee on the Evaluation of Radiation Shielding for Space Exploration. Managing space radiation risk in the new era of space exploration, the National Academies Press; 2008.
39. M.Y. Kim, M.J. Hayat, A.H. Feiveson, and F.A. Cucinotta Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events Adv. Space Res. 44 2009 1428 1432
40. R.E., Smith, G.S., West, Compilers, space and planetary environment criteria guidelines for use in space vehicle development, 1982 revision, vol. 1, NASA TM-82478, 1983.
41. NCRP, Guidance on radiation received in space activities, NCRP report no. 98, National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, Bethesda, MD, 1989.