Estimating earthquake-rupture rates on a fault or fault system

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Volumn 101, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 79-92

  Field, Edward H ^a   Page, Morgan T ^b  

^a DENVER FEDERAL CENTER   (United States)

^b U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DATA CONSTRAINTS; FAULT SYSTEM; INVERSE METHODOLOGY; MAGNITUDE-FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION; SAN ANDREAS FAULT; SLIP RATES;

EARTHQUAKES;

EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; EARTHQUAKE RUPTURE; ESTIMATION METHOD; FAULTING; FREQUENCY-MAGNITUDE DISTRIBUTION; POWER LAW DISTRIBUTION; SAN ANDREAS FAULT; SLIP RATE;

EID: 79251649623     PISSN: 00371106     EISSN: 19433573     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1785/0120100004     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Andrews, D. J., and E. Schwerer (2000). Probability of rupture of multiple fault segments, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90, 1498-1506.
2. Bakun, W. H., B. Aagaard, B. Dost, W. L. Ellsworth, J. L. Hardebeck, R. A. Harris, C. Ji, M. J. S. Johnston, J. Langbein, J. J. Lienkaemper, A. J. Michael, J. R. Murray, R. M. Nadeau, P. A. Reasenberg, M. S. Reichle, E. A. Roeloffs, A. Shakal, R. W. Simpson, and F. Waldhauser (2005). Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, Nature 437, 969-974, doi 10.1038/nature04067.
3. Biasi, G. P., and R. J. Weldon (2009). San Andreas fault rupture scenarios from multiple paleoseismic records: Stringing pearls, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99, 471-498.
4. Field, E. H., T. H. Jordan, and C. A. Cornell (2003). OpenSHA: A developing community-modeling environment for seismic hazard analysis, Seismol. Res. Lett. 74, 406-419.
5. Gutenberg, B., and C. Richter (1944). Frequency of earthquakes in California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 34, 185-188.
6. Hanks, T. C., and W. H. Bakun (2008). M-log A observations for recent large earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 98, 490-494.
7. Hanks, T. C., and H. Kanamori (1979). A moment magnitude scale, J. Geophys, Res. 84, 2348-2350.
8. Ishimoto, M., and K. Iida (1939). Observations sur les seismes enregistres par le microseimographe construit dernierement, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo 17, 443-478 (in Japanese with French abstract).
9. Jackson, D. D., and Y. K. Kagan (2006). The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 96, S397-S409.
10. King, G. C. P., and S. G. Wesnousky (2007). Scaling of fault parameters for continental strike-slip earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 97, 1833-1840, doi 10.1785/0120070048.
11. Kirkpatrick, S., C. D. Gelatt, and M. P. Vecchi (1983). Optimization by simulated annealing, Science 220, 671-680.
12. Lawson, C. L., and D. J. Hanson (1974). Solving Least Squares Problems. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 340 pp.
13. Menke, W. (1989). Geophysical Data Analysis: Discrete Inverse Theory, Academic Press, Inc., San Diego, California, 289 pp.
14. Page, M. T., K. Felzer, R. J. Weldon, and G. Biasi (2009). The magnitudefrequency distribution on the Southern San Andreas fault: Reconciling instrumental, historic, and paleoseismic catalogs (abstract), Seismol. Res. Lett. 80, 325.
15. Parsons, T. (2007). Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California, J. Geophys. Res. 113, no. B03302, doi 10.1029/2007JB004998.
16. Parsons, T., and E. L. Geist (2009). Is there a basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over a Gutenberg-Richter distribution in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99, 2012-2019.
17. Schwartz, D. P., and K. J. Coppersmith (1984). Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes: Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas fault zones, J. Geophys. Res. 89, 5681-5698.
18. Somerville, P. (2006). Review of magnitude-area scaling of crustal earthquakes, Report to WGCEP, URS Corp., Pasadena, 22 pp.
19. Stirling, M. W., S. G. Wesnousky, and K. Shimazaki (1996). Fault trace complexity, cumulative slip, and the shape of the magnitude-frequency distribution for strike-slip faults: A global survey, J. Geophys. Res. 124, 833-868.
20. Weldon, R. J., II, G. P. Biasi, C. J.Wills, and T. E. Dawson (2008). Overview of the southern San Andreas fault model; Appendix E in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2), U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept. 2007-1437-E, and California Geol. Surv. Special Rept. 203-E, 53 pp., available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/ 2007/1437/e/.
21. Wells, D. L., and K. J. Coppersmith (1993). Likelihood of surface rupture as a function of magnitude, Seismol. Res. Lett. 64, 54.
22. Wesnousky, S. G., C. H. Scholz, K. Shimazaki, and T. Matsuda (1983). Earthquake frequency distribution and the mechanics of faulting, J. Geophys. Res. 88, 9331-9340.
23. Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (1988). Probabilities of large earthquakes occurring in California on the San Andreas fault, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report, 62 pp.
24. Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (1990). Probabilities of large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region, California, U.S. Geological Survey Circular, 51 pp.
25. Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (1995). Seismic hazards in southern California: Probable earthquakes, 1994-2024, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 85, 379-439.
26. Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003). Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region: 2002-2031, USGS Open-File Report 2003-214, 235 pp;p.
27. Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2008). The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2), USGS Open-File Report 2007-1437, and California Geological Survey Special Report 203, 96 pp.
28. Youngs, R. R., W. J. Arabasz, R. E. Anderson, A. R. Ramelli, J. P. Ake, D. B. Slemmons, J. P. McCalpin, D. I. Doser, C. J. Fridrich, F. H. Swan III, A. M. Rogers, J. C. Yount, L. W. Anderson, K. D. Smith, R. L. Bruhn, P. L. K. Knuepfer, R. B. Smith, C. M. dePolo, D. W. O'Leary, K. J. Coppersmith, S. K. Pezzopane, D. P. Schwartz, J. W. Whitney, S. S. Olig, and G. R. Toro (2003). A methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA), Earthq. Spectra 19, 191-219.