메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 10, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 353-374

The vector innovations structural time series framework: A simple approach to multivariate forecasting

Author keywords

exponential smoothing; forecast comparison; multivariate time series; state space model; vector autoregression; vector innovations structural time series model

Indexed keywords


EID: 78751495093     PISSN: 1471082X     EISSN: 14770342     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/1471082X0901000401     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (19)

References (37)
  • 2
    • 0001707631 scopus 로고
    • Estimation, filtering and smoothing in state space models with incompletely specified conditions
    • Ansley CF and Kohn R (1985) Estimation, filtering and smoothing in state space models with incompletely specified conditions. Annals of Statistics, 13, 1286-316.
    • (1985) Annals of Statistics , vol.13 , pp. 1286-1316
    • Ansley, C.F.1    Kohn, R.2
  • 9
    • 0037403873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: one step along
    • Clarida R, Sarno L, Taylor M and Valente G (2003) The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: one step along. Journal of International Economics, 60, 61-83.
    • (2003) Journal of International Economics , vol.60 , pp. 61-83
    • Clarida, R.1    Sarno, L.2    Taylor, M.3    Valente, G.4
  • 10
    • 0000785218 scopus 로고
    • The diffuse Kalman Filter
    • de Jong P (1991) The diffuse Kalman Filter. Annals of Statistics, 19, 1073-83.
    • (1991) Annals of Statistics , vol.19 , pp. 1073-1083
    • de Jong, P.1
  • 11
    • 85036258669 scopus 로고
    • Distribution of the estimates for autoregressive time series with a unit root
    • Dickey D and Fuller W (1979) Distribution of the estimates for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-31.
    • (1979) Journal of American Statistical Association , vol.74 , pp. 427-431
    • Dickey, D.1    Fuller, W.2
  • 13
    • 0020186018 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting applications of an adaptive multiple exponential smoothing model
    • Enns PG, Machak JA, Spivey A and Wrobleski WJ (1982) Forecasting applications of an adaptive multiple exponential smoothing model. Management Science, 28, 1035-44.
    • (1982) Management Science , vol.28 , pp. 1035-1044
    • Enns, P.G.1    Machak, J.A.2    Spivey, A.3    Wrobleski, W.J.4
  • 14
    • 0000842497 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting trends in time series
    • Gardner ES and McKenzie E (1985) Forecasting trends in time series. Management Science, 31, 1237-46.
    • (1985) Management Science , vol.31 , pp. 1237-1246
    • Gardner, E.S.1    McKenzie, E.2
  • 15
    • 0742302254 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comments on the M3 forecast evaluation and a comparison with a study by Stock and Watson
    • Granger C (2001) Comments on the M3 forecast evaluation and a comparison with a study by Stock and Watson. International Journal of Forecastings, 17, 565-67.
    • (2001) International Journal of Forecastings , vol.17 , pp. 565-567
    • Granger, C.1
  • 18
    • 0000441754 scopus 로고
    • The identification of vector mixed Autoregressive-Moving Average systems
    • Hannan EJ (1969) The identification of vector mixed Autoregressive-Moving Average systems. Biometrica56, 223-25.
    • (1969) Biometrica , vol.56 , pp. 223-225
    • Hannan, E.J.1
  • 20
    • 1842773568 scopus 로고
    • Analysis and generalisation of a multivariate exponential smoothing model
    • Harvey A (1986) Analysis and generalisation of a multivariate exponential smoothing model. Management Science, 32, 374-80.
    • (1986) Management Science , vol.32 , pp. 374-380
    • Harvey, A.1
  • 21
    • 0038291086 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multivariate structural time series model
    • In Heij C, Schumacher H and Hanzon B (eds), Chichester: John Wiley and Sons
    • Harvey A and Koopman S (1997) Multivariate structural time series model. In Heij C, Schumacher H and Hanzon B (eds) System dynamics in economic and financial models. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons, 269-96.
    • (1997) System Dynamics in Economic and Financial Models , pp. 269-296
    • Harvey, A.1    Koopman, S.2
  • 27
    • 1842823930 scopus 로고
    • Exponential smoothing for multivariate time series
    • Series B
    • Jones RH (1966) Exponential smoothing for multivariate time series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 28, 241-51.
    • (1966) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , vol.28 , pp. 241-251
    • Jones, R.H.1
  • 28
    • 34247480179 scopus 로고
    • Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root
    • Kwiatkowski D, Phillips PCB, Schmidt P and Shin Y (1992) Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-78.
    • (1992) Journal of Econometrics , vol.54 , pp. 159-178
    • Kwiatkowski, D.1    Phillips, P.C.B.2    Schmidt, P.3    Shin, Y.4
  • 30
    • 0034288942 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The M3-competition: results, conclusions and implications
    • Makridakis M and Hibon M (2000) The M3-competition: results, conclusions and implications. International Journal of Forecasting, 16, 451-76.
    • (2000) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.16 , pp. 451-476
    • Makridakis, M.1    Hibon, M.2
  • 34
    • 0000997472 scopus 로고
    • Macroeconomics and reality
    • Sims C (1980) Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48, 1-49.
    • (1980) Econometrica , vol.48 , pp. 1-49
    • Sims, C.1
  • 35
    • 0000433521 scopus 로고
    • Recursive estimation of dynamic linear statistical models
    • Series B
    • Snyder RD (1985) Recursive estimation of dynamic linear statistical models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 47, 272-76.
    • (1985) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , vol.47 , pp. 272-276
    • Snyder, R.D.1
  • 36
    • 0000057284 scopus 로고
    • Model specification in multivariate time series
    • Series B
    • Tiao G and Tsay R (1989) Model specification in multivariate time series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 51, 157-213.
    • (1989) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , vol.51 , pp. 157-213
    • Tiao, G.1    Tsay, R.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.