Refereed papers: Uncertainty in the global average surface air temperature index: A representative lower limit

Energy and Environment

Volumn 21, Issue 8, 2010, Pages 969-989

  Frank, Patrick ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE MODELS; SENSORS; SYSTEMATIC ERRORS;

20TH CENTURY; AIR TEMPERATURE; CALIBRATION UNCERTAINTY; GLOBAL SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE; LOWER LIMITS; PROXY RECONSTRUCTION; SENSOR MEASUREMENTS; SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

AIR TEMPERATURE; CALIBRATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; ERROR ANALYSIS; GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE; GLOBAL WARMING; PALEOTEMPERATURE; PROXY CLIMATE RECORD; RECONSTRUCTION; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY; TEMPERATURE GRADIENT; TWENTIETH CENTURY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 78651404883     PISSN: 0958305X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.21.8.969     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Cicerone, R., Barron, E.J., Dickenson, R.E., Fung, I.Y., Hansen, J.E., Karl, T.R., Lindzen, R.S., McWilliams, J.C., Rowland, F.S., Sarachik, E.S. and Wallace, J.M., Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, The National Academy of Sciences, USA, http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record-id= 10139&page=1, Last accessed on: 28 March 2010.
2. Bernstein, L., Bosch, P., Canziani, O., Chen, Z., Christ, R., Davidson, O., Hare, W., Huq, S., Karoly, D., Kattsov, V., Kundzewicz, V., Liu, J., Lohmann, U., Manning, M., Matsuno, T., Menne, B., Metz, B., Mirza, M., Nicholls, N., Nurse, L., Pachauri, R., Palutikof, J., Parry, M., Qin, D., Ravindranath, N., Reisinger, A., Ren, J., Riahi, K., Rosenzweig, C., Rusticucci, M., Schneider, S., Sokona, Y., Solomon, S., Stott, P., Stouffer, R., Sugiyama, T., Swart, R., Tirpak, D., Vogel, C. and Yohe, G., Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in, Pachauri, R.K. & Reisinger, A., eds. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2007, pp. 104 pp.
3. Karl, T.R., Tarpley, J.D., Quayle, R.G., Diaz, H.F., Robinson, D.A. and Bradley, R.S., The Recent Climate Record: What it Can and Cannot Tell Us, Rev. Geophys., 1989, 27(3), 405-430.
4. Trenberth, K.E., Christy, J.R. and Hurrell, J.W., Monitoring Global Monthly Mean Surface Temperatures, J. Climate, 1992, 5, 1405-1423; doi: 10.1175/1520- 0442(1992)005.
5. Hansen, J. and Lebedeff, S., Global Trends of Measured Surface Air Temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 1987, 92(D11), 13345-13372.
6. Easterling, D.R., Peterson, T.C. and Karl, T.R., On the Development and Use of Homogenized Climate Datasets, J. Climate, 1996, 9(6), 1429-1434; doi: 10.1175/1520- 0442(1996)0092.0.CO;2.
7. Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J. and Briffa, K.R., Estimating Sampling Errors in Large-Scale Temperature Averages, J. Climate, 1997, 10(10), 2548-2568; doi: 10.1175/1520- 0442(1997)0102.0.CO;2.
8. Peterson, T.C., Easterling, D.R., Karl, T.R., Groisman, P., Nicholls, N., Plummer, N., Torok, S., Auer, I., Boehm, R., Gullet, D., Vincent, L., Heino, R.T., H., Mestre, O., Szentimrey, T., Salinger, J., Førland, E., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Alexandersson, H., Jones, P. and Parker, D., Homogeneity adjustments of in situ atmospheric climate data: a review, Int. J. Climatol., 1998, 18(13), 1493-1517.
9. Peterson, T.C., Vose, R., Schmoyer, R. and Razuvaëv, V., Global historical climatology network (GHCN) quality control of monthly temperature data, Int. J. Climatol., 1998, 18(11), 1169-1179; doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1097- 0088(199809)18:11 3.0.CO;2-U.
10. Peterson, T.C. and Sun, B., Estimating temperature normals for USHCN stations, Int. J. Climatol., 2005, 25(4), 1809-1817; doi: 10.1002/joc.1220. (Pubitemid 41694322)
11. Brohan, P., Kennedy, J.J., Harris, I., Tett, S.F.B. and Jones, P.D., Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850, J. Geophys. Res., 2006, 111 D12106 1-21; doi:10.1029/2005JD006548; see . (Pubitemid 44687620)
12. Folland, C.K., Rayner, N.A., Brown, S.J., Smith, T.M., Shen, S.S.P., Parker, D.E., Macadam, I., Jones, P.D., Jones, R.N., Nicholls, N. and Sexton, D.M.H., Global Temperature Change and its Uncertainties Since 1861, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2001, 28(13), 2621-2624.
13. Hubbard, K.G. and Lin, X., Realtime data filtering models for air temperature measurements, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2002, 29(10), 1425 1-4; doi: 10.1029/2001GL013191.
14. Aunon, J.I., McGillum, C.D. and Childers, D.G., Signal Processing in Evoked Potential Research: Averaging and Modeling, CRC Crit. Rev. Bioeng., 1981, 5(4), 323-367; cf. eqs. 10-18.
15. Leski, J., New Concept of Signal Averaging in the Time Domain, in, Nagel, J.H. & Smith, W.M., eds. Vol. 13: Proc. Annu. Int. Conf. IEEE Eng. Med. Biol. Soc., IEEE, Orlando, FL, 1991, pp. 367-369.
16. Mark, H. and Workman jr., J., Statistics in Spectroscopy, 2nd edn., Elsevier; cf. Chapter 11, Amsterdam 2003.
17. Bevington, P.R. and Robinson, D.K., Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences, 3rd edn., McGraw-Hill, Boston 2003.
18. Esper, J. and Frank, D., The IPCC on a heterogeneous Medieval Warm Period, Climatic Change, 2009, 94 267-273; doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9492-z.
19. Gleser, L.J., Assessing uncertainty in measurement, Statist. Sci., 1998, 13 (3), 277-290; doi: 10.1214/ss/1028905888.
20. Guttman, N.B. and Plantico, M.S., Climatic Temperature Trends, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 1987, 26 1428-1435; doi: 10.1175/1520- 0450(1987)0262.0.CO;2.
21. Reek, T., Doty, S.R. and Owen, T.W., A Deterministic Approach to the Validation of Historical Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data from the Cooperative Network, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 1992, 73(6), 753-762; doi:10.1175/1520- 0477(1992)0732.0.CO;2.
22. Easterling, D.R. and Peterson, T.C., A new method for detecting undocumented discontinuities in climatological time series, Int. J. Climatol., 1995, 15 (4), 369-377; doi: 10.1002/joc.3370150403.
23. Sun, B. and Peterson, T.C., Estimating temperature normals for USCRN stations, Int. J. Climatol., 2005, 25(14), 1809-1817; doi: 10.1002/joc.1220. (Pubitemid 41694322)
24. Pielke Sr., R., Nielsen-Gammon, J., Davey, C., Angel, J., Bliss, O., Doesken, N., Cai, M., Fall, S., Niyogi, D., Gallo, K., Hale, R., Hubbard, K.G., Lin, X., Li, H. and Raman, S., Documentation of Uncertainties and Biases Associated with Surface Temperature Measurement Sites for Climate Change Assessment, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 2007, 913- 928; doi: 10.1175/BAMS-88-6-913. (Pubitemid 47570139)
25. NCDC, Environmental Information Summaries C-23; United States Climate Normals, 1971-2000 Inhomogeneity Adjustment Methodology, National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA, http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/normnws0320.pdf, Last accessed on: 28 March 2010.
26. Watts, A., Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?, The Heartland Institute, Chicago, IL 2009
27. Davey, C.A. and Pielke Sr., R.A., Microclimate Exposures of Surface-Based Weather Stations, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 2005, 86(4), 497-504; doi: 10.1175/BAMS-86-4-497. (Pubitemid 40708888)
28. Runnalls, K.E. and Oke, T.R., A Technique to Detect Microclimatic Inhomogeneities in Historical Records of Screen-Level Air Temperature, J. Climate, 2006, 19(6), 959-978.
29. Pielke Sr., R.A., Davey, C.A., Niyogi, D., Fall, S., Steinweg-Woods, J., Hubbard, K., Lin, X., Cai, M., Lim, Y.-K., Li, H., Nielsen-Gammon, J., Gallo, K., Hale, R., Mahmood, R., Foster, S., McNider, R.T. and Blanken, P., Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends, J. Geophys. Res., 2007, 112 D24S08 1-26; doi: 10.1029/2006JD008229.
30. Fiebrich, C.A. and Crawford, K.C., Automation: A Step Toward Improving the Quality of Daily Temperature Data Produced by Climate Observing Networks, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2009, 26(7), 1246-1260.
31. Klein Tank, A.M.G., Wijngaard, J.B., Können, G.P., Böhm, R., Demarée, G., Gocheva, A., Mileta, M., Pashiardis, S., Hejkrlik, L., Kern-Hansen, C., Heino, R., Bessemoulin, P., Müller-Westermeier, G., Tzanakou, M., Szalai, S., Pálsdóttir, T., Fitzgerald, D., Rubin, S., Capaldo, M., Maugeri, M., Leitass, A., Bukantis, A., Aberfeld, R., van Engelen, A.F.V., Forland, E., Mietus, M., Coelho, F., Mares, C., Razuvaev, V., Nieplova, E., Cegnar, T., Antonio López, J., Dahlström, B., Moberg, A., Kirchhofer, W., Ceylan, A., Pachaliuk, O., Alexander, L.V. and Petrovic, P., Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment, Int. J. Climatol., 2002, 22(12), 1441-1453; doi: 10.1002/joc.773. (Pubitemid 35288961)
32. Vincent, L.A. and Gullett, D.W., Canadian historical and homogeneous temperature datasets for climate change analyses, Int. J. Climatol., 1999, 19(12), 1375-1388.
33. Vincent, L.A., Zhang, X., Bonsal, B.R. and Hogg, W.D., Homogenization of Daily Temperatures over Canada, J. Climate, 2002, 15 (11), 1322-1334; doi: 10.1175/1520- 0442(2002)0152.0.CO;2.
34. Allsop, D. and Morris, R., Calculation of the 1971 to 2000 Climate Normals for Canada, Meteorological Service of Canada, http://www.climate. weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/prods-servs/normals-documentation-e.html, Last accessed on: 28 March 2010.
35. Lin, X. and Hubbard, K.G., Sensor and Electronic Biases/Errors in Air Temperature Measurements in Common Weather Station Networks, J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 2004, 21 1025-1032.
36. Rüedi, I., WMO Guide to Meteorological Instruments and Methods of Observation: WMO-8 Part I: Measurement of Meteorological Variables, 7th Ed., Chapter 1, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva 2006 .
37. Santer, B.D., Wigley, T.M.L., Boyle, J.S., Gaffen, D.J., Hnilo, J.J., Nychka, D., Parker, D.E. and Taylor, K.E., Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layeraverage atmospheric temperature time series, J. Geophys. Res., 2000, 105(D6), 7337-7356.
38. Eisenhart, C., Expression of the Uncertainties of Final Results, Science, 1968, 160 1201-1204.
39. Taylor, B.N. and Kuyatt., C.E., Guidelines for Evaluating and Expressing the Uncertainty of NIST Measurement Results, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Washington, DC 1994 .
40. Ishida, H., Seasonal variations of spectra of wind speed and air temperature in the mesoscale frequency range Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 1990, 52(4), 335-348.
41. Wendland, W.M. and Armstrong, W., Comparison of Maximum-Minimum Resistance and Liquid-in-Glass Thermometer Records, J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 1993, 10(2), 233-237.
42. Hubbard, K.G., Lin, X. and Walter-Shea, E.A., The Effectiveness of the ASOS, MMTS, Gill, and CRS Air Temperature Radiation Shields, J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 2001, 18(6), 851-864.
43. Snyder, R.L., Spano, D., Duce, P. and Cesaraccio, C., Temperature data for phenological models, Int. J. Biometeorol., 2001, 45(4), 178-183.
44. Lin, X., Hubbard, K.G. and Meyer, G.E., Airflow Characteristics of Commonly Used Temperature Radiation Shields, J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 2001, 18 (3), 329-339.
45. Tarara, J.M. and Hoheisel, G.-A., Low-cost Shielding to Minimize Radiation Errors of Temperature Sensors in the Field, Hort. Sci., 2007, 42(6), 1372-1379.
46. Hubbard, K.G., Lin, X., Baker, C.B. and Sun, B., Air Temperature Comparison between the MMTS and the USCRN Temperature Systems, J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 2004, 21 1590-1597.
47. Lira, I.H. and Wöger, W., The evaluation of standard uncertainty in the presence of limited resolution of indicating devices, Meas. Sci. Technol., 1997, 8 441-443; doi: 10.1088/0957-0233/8/4/012.
48. Quayle, R.G., Easterling, D.R., Karl, T.R. and Hughes, P.Y., Effects of Recent Thermometer Changes in the Cooperative Station Network, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 1991, 72 (11), 1718-1723; doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1991)0722.0.CO;2.
49. Lin, X., Hubbard, K.G. and Baker, C.B., Surface Air Temperature Records Biased by Snow-Covered Surface, Int. J. Climatol., 2005, 25 1223-1236; doi: 10.1002/joc.1184. (Pubitemid 41057395)
50. Karl, T., U. S. Climate Reference Network: Site Information Handbook, National Climate Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Asheville, NC 2002
51. Hubbard, K.G., Lin, X. and Baker, C.B., On the USCRN Temperature system, J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 2005, 22 1095-1101.
52. Hansen, J., Johnson, D., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., P., L., Rind, D. and Russell, G., Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Science, 1981, 213 (4511), 957-966.
53. Hansen, J. and Lebedeff, S., Global Surface Air Temperatures: Update through 1987, Geophys. Res. Lett., 1988, 15(4), 323-326.
54. Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Imhoff, M., Lawrence, W., Easterling, D., Peterson, T. and Karl, T., A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change, J. Geophys. Res., 2001, 106(D20), 23947-23963; see .
55. Hansen, J. and Wilson, H., Commentary on the significance of global temperature records, Climatic Change, 1993, 25(2), 185-191; doi: 10.1007/BF01661206.
56. Kent, E.C., Taylor, P.K., Truscott, B.S. and Hopkins, J.S., The Accuracy of Voluntary Observing Ships' Meteorological Observations-Results of the VSOP-NA, J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 1993, 10(4), 591-608; doi: 10.1175/1520- 0426(1993)0102.0.CO;2.
57. Berry, D.I., Kent, E.C. and Taylor, P.K., An Analytical Model of Heating Errors in Marine Air Temperatures from Ships, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2004, 21(8), 1198-1215.
58. Kent, E.C. and Berry, D.I., Quantifying random measurement errors in Voluntary Observing Ships' meteorological observations, Int. J. Climatol., 2005, 25(7), 843-856; doi: 10.1002/joc.1167. (Pubitemid 40906760)
59. Berry, D.I. and Kent, E.C., The effect of instrument exposure on marine air temperatures: an assessment using VOSClim Data, Int. J. Climatol., 2005, 25(7), 1007-1022; doi: 10.1002/joc.1178. (Pubitemid 40906771)
60. Nichols, H., Historical Aspects of the Northern Canadian Treeline, Arctic, 1976, 29(1), 38-47.
61. Elliot-Fisk, D.L., The Stability of the Northern Canadian Tree Limit, Annal. Assoc. Amer. Geog., 2005, 73(4), 560-576.
62. MacDonald, G.M., Kremenetski, K.V. and Beilman, D.W., Climate change and the northern Russian treeline zone, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc., 2008, B363 2285-2299; doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.2200. (Pubitemid 351770598)