Derivation, validation, and evaluation of a new QRISK model to estimate lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease: Cohort study using QResearch database

BMJ

Volumn 342, Issue 7788, 2011, Pages 93-

  Hippisley Cox, Julia ^a   Coupland, Carol ^a   Robson, John ^b   Brindle, Peter ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^b QUEEN MARY UNIVERSITY OF LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^c NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CHOLESTEROL; HIGH DENSITY LIPOPROTEIN;

ADULT; ARTICLE; BODY MASS; CALIBRATION; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE; CARDIOVASCULAR RISK; CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE; COHORT ANALYSIS; CONTROLLED STUDY; DATA BASE; ETHNIC GROUP; ETHNICITY; EVALUATION; FAMILY HISTORY; FEMALE; GENERAL PRACTICE; HEART ATRIUM FIBRILLATION; HUMAN; HYPERTENSION; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; NON INSULIN DEPENDENT DIABETES MELLITUS; PATIENT IDENTIFICATION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROSPECTIVE STUDY; QRISK; RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS; SMOKING; STATISTICAL MODEL; SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE; UNITED KINGDOM; VALIDATION STUDY;

EID: 78651391520     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17561833     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1136/bmj.c6624     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. British Heart Foundation. Coronary heart disease statistics. British Heart Foundation, 2007.
2. Department of Health. Putting prevention first - vascular checks: risk assessment and management. DoH, 2008:15.
3. NICE clinical guideline 64. Lipid modification - Cardiovascular risk assessment and the modification of blood lipids for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. NICE, 2008.
4. Third report of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (Adult Treatment Panel III) final report. Circulation 2002;106:3140-1.
5. Graham I, Atar D, Borch-Johnsen K, Boysen G, Burell G, Cifkova R, et al. European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice: executive summary. Eur Heart J 2007;28:2375-414.
6. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Vinogradova Y, Robson J, Minhas R, Sheikh A, et al. Predicting cardiovascular risk in England and Wales: prospective derivation and validation of QRISK2. BMJ 2008;336:1475-82, doi:10.1136/bmj. 39609.449676.25.
7. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Vinogradova Y, Robson J, Brindle P. Performance of the QRISK cardiovascular risk prediction algorithm in an independent UK sample of patients from general practice: a validation study. Heart 2008;94:34-9.
8. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Vinogradova Y, Robson J, May M, Brindle P. Derivation and validation of QRISK, a new cardiovascular disease risk score for the United Kingdom: prospective open cohort study. BMJ 2007;335:136, doi:10.1136/bmj.39261.471806.55.
9. Elward K, Simpson R, Mendy P. Improving cardiovascular risk reduction for primary prevention-utility of lifetime risk assessment. Postgrad Med J 2010;122:192-9.
10. Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB, Sr, Larson MG, Massaro JM, Vasan RS. Predicting the 30-year risk of cardiovascular disease: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation 2009;119:3078-84.
11. Lloyd-Jones DM, Leip EP, Larson MG, D'Agostino RB, Beiser A, Wilson PWF, et al. Prediction of lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease by risk factor burden at 50 years of age. Circulation 2006;113:791-8. (Pubitemid 43754299)
12. Berger JS, Jordan CO, Lloyd-Jones D, Blumenthal RS. Screening for cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic patients. J Am Coll Cardiol 2010;55:1169-77.
13. Lloyd-Jones DM, Larson MG, Beiser A, Levy D. Lifetime risk of developing coronary heart disease. Lancet 1999;353:89-92. (Pubitemid 29088076)
14. Hippisley-Cox J. QRISK Search Definition (v2.8). University of Nottingham, 2010.
15. Gray A, Clarke P, Farmer A, Holman R, for the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Group. Implementing intensive control of blood glucose concentration and blood pressure in type 2 diabetes in England: cost analysis (UKPDS 63). BMJ 2002;325:860.
16. Royston P. Multiple imputation of missing values. Stata J 2004;4:227-41.
17. Wolbers M, Koller MT, Witteman JCM, Steyerberg EW. Prognostic models with competing risks: methods and application to coronary risk prediction. Epidemiology 2009;20:555-61, doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181a39056.
18. Vasan RS, Beiser A, Seshadri S, Larson MG, Kannel WB, D'Agostino RB, et al. Residual lifetime risk for developing hypertension in middle-aged women and men: the Framingham Heart Study. JAMA 2002;287:1003-10. (Pubitemid 34252058)
19. Kalbfleisch J, Prentice R. The statistical analysis of failure time data. Hoboken, 2002.
20. Royston P, Sauerbrei W. A new measure of prognostic separation in survival data. Stat Med 2004;23:723-48. (Pubitemid 38279510)
21. Royston P, Wright EM. Amethod for estimating age-specific reference intervals ('normal ranges') based on fractional polynomials and exponential transformation. J R Stat Soc: A 1998;161:79-101. (Pubitemid 128371556)
22. Lloyd-Jones DM, Wilson PWF, Larson MG, Beiser A, Leip EP, D'Agostino RB, et al. Framinghamrisk score and prediction of lifetime risk for coronary heart disease. Am J Cardiol 2004;94:20-4.
23. Brindle P, Beswick A, Fahey T, Ebrahim S. Accuracy and impact of risk assessment in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review. Heart 2006;92:1752-9.
24. Wells S, Kerr A, Eadie S, Wiltshire C, Jackson R. "Your heart forecast": a new approach for describing and communicating cardiovascular risk? Heart 2010;96:708-13.
25. Cooney MT, Dudina A, D'Agostino R, Graham IM. Cardiovascular risk-estimation systems in primary prevention: do they differ? Do they make a difference? Can we see the future? Circulation 2010;122:300-10.
26. Dent THS. Predicting the risk of coronary heart disease. II: The role of novel molecular biomarkers and genetics in estimating risk, and the future of risk prediction. Atherosclerosis (forthcoming).
27. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Robson J, Brindle P. QRISK2 (2010) annual update information. University of Nottingham, 2010:4.
28. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C. Unintended effects of statins in men and women in England and Wales: population based cohort study using the QResearch database. BMJ 2010;340:c2197.
29. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C. Individualising the risks of statins in men and women in England and Wales: population-based cohort study. Heart 2010;96:939-47.
30. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Robson J, Sheikh A, Brindle P. Predicting risk of type 2 diabetes in England and Wales: prospective derivation and validation of QDScore. BMJ 2009;338:b880.
31. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C. Predicting risk of osteoporotic fracture inmen and women in England and Wales: prospective derivation and validation of QFracture Scores. BMJ 2009;339:b4229.
32. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C. Predicting the risk of chronic kidney disease in men and women in England and Wales: prospective derivation and external validation of the QKidney(R) scores.BMC Fam Pract 2010;11:49.
33. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Vinogradova Y, Robson J, May M, Brindle P. QRISK - authors response. [electronic response to Hippisley-Cox et al. Derivation and validation of QRISK, a new cardiovascular disease risk score for the United Kingdom: prospective open cohort study]. BMJ 2007. www.bmj.com/cgi/eletters/335/7611/136
34. Collins GS, Altman DG. An independent external validation and evaluation of QRISK cardiovascular risk prediction: a prospective open cohort study. BMJ 2009;339:b2584.
35. Collins GS, Altman DG. An independent and external validation of QRISK2 cardiovascular disease risk score: a prospective open cohort study. BMJ 2010;340:c2442.
36. Daviglus ML, Liu K, Pirzada A, Yan LL, Garside DB, Feinglass J, et al. Favorable cardiovascular risk profile in middle age and healthrelated quality of life in older age. Arch Intern Med 2003;163:2460-8.
37. Ebrahim S, Beswick A, Burke M, Davey Smith G. Multiple risk factor interventions for primary prevention of coronary heart disease. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2006;(4):CD001561.
38. Gotto AM Jr. The Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT): a return to a landmark trial. JAMA 1997;277:595-7.
39. Ray KK, Seshasai SRK, Erqou S, Sever P, Jukema JW, Ford I, et al. Statins and all-cause mortality in high-risk primary prevention: a meta-analysis of 11 randomized controlled trials involving 65 229 participants. Arch Intern Med 2010;170:1024-31.
40. Naveed S, David P, Heather MM, Paul W, Brendan MB, Anton JMdC, et al. Statins and risk of incident diabetes: a collaborative metaanalysis of randomised statin trials. Lancet 2010;375:735-42.