Modelling the future distribution of the amphibian chytrid fungus: The influence of climate and human-associated factors

Journal of Applied Ecology

Volumn 48, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 174-176

  Rohr, Jason R ^a   Halstead, Neal T ^a   Raffel, Thomas R ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA   (United States)

Author keywords

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis; Bioclimatic envelope models; Biotic interactions; Chytridiomycosis; Climate change; Disease; Dispersal; Diurnal temperature range; Management; Species distribution models

Indexed keywords

AMPHIBIAN; ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; BIOCLIMATOLOGY; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE SPREAD; DIURNAL VARIATION; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; FUNGAL DISEASE; FUNGUS; HOST-PATHOGEN INTERACTION; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION DECLINE; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY);

AUSTRALIA;

AMPHIBIA; BATRACHOCHYTRIUM DENDROBATIDIS; FUNGI;

EID: 78650936448     PISSN: 00218901     EISSN: 13652664     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01891.x     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Adams, M.J., Chelgren, N.D., Reinitz, D., Cole, R.A., Rachowicz, L.J., Galvan, S., McCreary, B., Pearl, C.A., Bailey, L.L., Bettaso, J., Bull, E.L. & Leu, M. (2010) Using occupancy models to understand the distribution of an amphibian pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Ecological Applications, 20, 289-302.
2. Araujo, M.B. & Guisan, A. (2006) Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1677-1688.
3. Araujo, M.B. & Luoto, M. (2007) The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 743-753.
4. Berger, L., Speare, R., Hines, H.B., Marantelli, G., Hyatt, A.D., McDonald, K.R., Skerratt, L.F., Olsen, V., Clarke, J.M., Gillespie, G., Mahony, M., Sheppard, N., Williams, C. & Tyler, M.J. (2004) Effect of season and temperature on mortality in amphibians due to chytridiomycosis. Australian Veterinary Journal, 82, 434-439.
5. Davis, A.J., Jenkinson, L.S., Lawton, J.H., Shorrocks, B. & Wood, S. (1998) Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature, 391, 783-786.
6. Hampe, A. (2004) Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 13, 469-471.
7. Hanski, I. (1998) Metapopulation dynamics. Nature, 396, 41-49.
8. Harmon, J.P., Moran, N.A. & Ives, A.R. (2009) Species response to environmental change: impacts of food web interactions and evolution. Science, 323, 1347-1350.
9. Hubbell, S.P. (2005) Neutral theory in community ecology and the hypothesis of functional equivalence. Functional Ecology, 19, 166-172.
10. James, T.Y., Litvintseva, A.P., Vilgalys, R., Morgan, J.A.T., Taylor, J.W., Fisher, M.C., Berger, L., Weldon, C., du Preez, L. & Longcore, J.E. (2009) Rapid global expansion of the fungal disease chytridiomycosis into declining and healthy amphibian populations. PLoS Pathogens, 5, e1000458.
11. Johnson, M.L., Berger, L., Philips, L. & Speare, R. (2003) Fungicidal effects of chemical disinfectants, UV light, desiccation and heat on the amphibian chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Diseases of Aquatic Organisms, 57, 255-260.
12. Lawler, J.J., Shafer, S.L., White, D., Kareiva, P., Maurer, E.P., Blaustein, A.R. & Bartlein, P.J. (2009) Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology, 90, 588-597.
13. Lips, K.R., Diffendorfer, J.E., Mendelson, J.R. & Sears, M.W. (2008) Riding the wave: reconciling the roles of disease and climate change in amphibian declines. PLoS Biology, 6, 441-454.
14. Morgan, J.A.T., Vredenburg, V.T., Rachowicz, L.J., Knapp, R.A., Stice, M.J., Tunstall, T., Bingham, R.E., Parker, J.M., Longcore, J.E., Moritz, C., Briggs, C.J. & Taylor, J.W. (2007) Population genetics of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104, 13845-13850.
15. Murray, K.A., Retallick, R.W.R., Puschendorf, R., Skerratt, L.F., Rosauer, D., McCallum, H.I., Berger, L., Speare, R. & VanDerWal, J. (2010) Assessing spatial patterns of disease risk to biodiversity: implications for the management of the amphibian pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Journal of Applied Ecology, 47, in press.
16. Pearson, R.G. & Dawson, T.P. (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
17. Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. & Schapire, R.E. (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259.
18. Raffel, T.R., Rohr, J.R., Kiesecker, J.M. & Hudson, P.J. (2006) Negative effects of changing temperature on amphibian immunity under field conditions. Functional Ecology, 20, 819-828.
19. Raisanen, J. (2002) CO2-induced changes in interannual temperature and precipitation variability in 19 CMIP2 experiments. Journal of Climate, 15, 2395-2411.
20. Rohr, J.R. & Madison, D.M. (2003) Dryness increases predation risk in efts: support for an amphibian decline hypothesis. Oecologia, 135, 657-664.
21. Rohr, J.R. & Raffel, T.R. (2010) Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107, 8269-8274.
22. Rohr, J.R., Raffel, T.R., Romansic, J.M., McCallum, H. & Hudson, P.J. (2008) Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 17436-17441.
23. Segurado, P., Araujo, M.B. & Kunin, W.E. (2006) Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for niche-based models. Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 433-444.
24. Skerratt, L.F., Berger, L., Speare, R., Cashins, S., McDonald, K.R., Phillott, A.D., Hines, H.B. & Kenyon, N. (2007) Spread of chytridiomycosis has caused the rapid global decline and extinction of frogs. EcoHealth, 4, 125-134.
25. Stuart, S.N., Chanson, J.S., Cox, N.A., Young, B.E., Rodrigues, A.S.L., Fischman, D.L. & Waller, R.W. (2004) Status and trends of amphibian declines and extinctions worldwide. Science, 306, 1783-1786.
26. Wake, D.B. & Vredenburg, V.T. (2008) Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 11466-11473.