The myth of big-time gun trafficking and the overinterpretation of gun tracing data

UCLA Law Review

Volumn 56, Issue 5, 2009, Pages 1233-1294

  Kleck, Gary ^a   Wang, Shun Yung Kevin ^a  

^a FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 78650529204     PISSN: 00415650     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (275)

1. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, FEDERAL FIREARMS REGULATIONS REFERENCE GUIDE 2005 (2005), available at http://www.atf.gov/pub/ fire-explo-pub/2005/p53004/ index.htm.
2. Robert D. Novak, Obama's Second-Amendment Dance, WASH. POST, Apr. 7, 2008, at A17;
3. Organizing for Am., Urban Policy, http://origin.barackobama.com/issues/ urban-policy/#crimeand-law-enforcement (last visited May 24, 2009).
4. Brady Ctr. to Prevent Gun Violence, Legal Action Project, Gun Distribution & Sales, http://www.gunlawsuits.org/refonn/distribution.php (last visited May 24, 2009).
5. Nat'l Rifle Ass'n Inst, for Legislative Action, Reckless Lawsuits: Taxpayer Funded Reckless Lawsuits Against the Firearms Industry, http://www.nraila.org/Issues/FactSheets/ Read.aspx?id=147&issue=022 (last visited May 24, 2009).
6. See, e.g., Mark Geistfeld, Tort Law & Criminal Behavior (Guns), in GUNS, CRIME, AND PUNISHMENT IN AMERICA 384, 387 (Bernard E. Harcourt ed., 2003);
7. David Kairys, The Cities Take the Initiative, in GUNS, CRIME, AND PUNISHMENT IN AMERICA supra at 363, 365.
8. Compare Brady Ctr. to Prevent Gun Violence, supra note 3,
9. with Nat'l Rifle Ass'n Inst, for Legislative Action, supra note 4.
10. See, e.g., BRADY CAMPAIGN TO PREVENT GUN VIOLENCE, LARGE VOLUME GUN SALES: THE ILLEGAL GUN TRAFFICKER'S BEST FRIEND, http://www.bradycampaign.org/ pdf/faq/largevolume-sales.pdf (last visited May 24, 2009).
11. Qn the Issues, Barack Obama on Gun Control, http://www.ontheissues.org/ Domestic/ Barack-Obama-Gun-Control.htm (last visited May 24, 2009).
12. See Alan Feuer, Gun Dealer and Mayor Face Showdown, N.Y. TIMES, May 22, 2008, at B1.
13. See, e.g., Anthony A. Braga & Glenn L. Pierce, Disrupting Illegal Firearms Markets in Boston: The Effects of Operations Ceasefire on the Supply of New Handguns to Criminals, 4 CRIMINOLOGY & PUB. POL'Y 717 (2005);
14. Anthony A. Braga et al., The Illegal Supply of Firearms, 29 CRIME &. JUST. 319 (2002);
15. Philip J. Cook et al., Regulating Gun Markets, 86 J. CRIM. L. & CRIMINOLOGY 59 (1995);
16. David M. Kennedy et al., Youth Violence in Boston: Gun Markets, Serious Youth Offenders, and a UseReduction Strategy, LAW & CONTEMP. PROBS., Winter 1996, at 147;
17. Christopher S. Koper, Purchase of Multiple Firearms as a Risk Factor for Criminal Gun Use: Implications for Gun Policy anil Enforcement, 4 CRIMINOLOGY & PUB. POL'Y 749 (200.5);
18. Mark H. Moore, Keeping Handguns From Criminal Offenders, 455 ANNALS AM. ACAD. POL. &. SOC. SCI. 92 (1981);
19. Glenn L. Pierce et al., Characteristics and Dynamics of Illegal Firearms Markets: Implications for a Supply-Side Enforcement Strategy, 21 JUST. Q. 391 (2004);
20. Franklin E. Zimring, Street Crime and New Guns: Some Implications for Firearms Control, 4 J. CRIM. JUST. 95 (1976).
21. Pierce et al., supra note 10, at 420.
22. Braga et al., supra note 10, at 319-52;
23. Philip J. Cook & Anthony A. Braga, Comprehensive Firearms Tracing: Strategic and Investigative Uses of New Data on Firearms Markets, 43 ARIZ. L REV. 277-309 (2001);
24. Cook et al., supra note. 10, at 59-92;
25. Kennedy et al., supra note 10, at 147-96;
26. Moore, supra note 10, at 92-109;
27. Koper, supra note 10, at 749-78;
28. Pierce et al., supra note 10, at 391-422;
29. Zimring, supra note 10, at 95-107.
30. Cook & Braga, supra note 18, at 308.
31. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, COMMERCE IN FIREARMS IN THE UNITED STATES-FEBRUARY 2000, at 11-12,17-2.5 (2000);
32. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, CONCENTRATED URBAN ENFORCEMENT (1977)
33. [hereinafter CONCENTRATED URBAN ENFORCEMENT];
34. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, FOLLOWING THE GUN: ENFORCING FEDERAL LAWS AGAINST FIREARMS TRAFFICKERS, 10-22 (2000)
35. [hereinafter FOLLOWING THE GUN];
36. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, GUN SHOWS: BRADY CHECKS AND CRIME GUN TRACES, JANUARY 1999 (1999);
37. Braga et al., supra note 10;
38. Cook & Braga, supra note 18;
39. Cook et al., supra note 10;
40. Kennedy et al., supra note 10;
41. Pierce et al., supra note 10.
42. Pierce et al., supra note 10, at 419.
43. Id. at 419.
44. Id. at 417.
45. Id. at 418.
46. E.g., Cook & Braga, supra note 18, at 308.
47. Braga et al., supra note 10;
48. Pierce et al., supra note 10;
49. D.W. Webster et al., Effects of Undercover Police Stings of Gun Dealers on the Supply of New Guns to Criminals, 12 INJ. PREVENTION 225(2006).
50. See JOSEPH SHELEY &. JAMES D. WRIGHT, IN THE LINE OF FIRE 46-51 ( 1996);
51. WRIGHT & ROSSI, supra note 14, at 184-87, 196, 198, 202-04;
52. Gary Kleck, BATF Gun Trace Data and the Role of Organized Gun Trafjicking Supplying Guns to Criminals, 18 ST. LOUIS U. PUB. L REV. 23,39-40 (1999).
53. WILLIAM VIZZARD, SHOTS IN THE DARK 31 (2000).
54. Id.
55. WRIGHT & ROSSI, supra note 14, at 203-04.
56. Kleck, supra note 27, at 40-41.
57. BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION IN UNITED STATES, 2000 STATISTICAL TABLES, tbl.84, available at http://www.ojp.gov/bjs/pub/pdt/ cvus00.pdf (last visited May 27, 2009).
58. BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, U.S. DEPT OF JUSTICE, CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION IN UNITED STATES, 1993 STATISTICAL TABLES, tbl.84, available at http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/ cvus935.pdf (last visited May 27, 2009).
59. PHILIP J. COOK & JENS LUDWIG, GUNS IN AMERICA 30 (1996).
60. BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, GUNS AND CRIME 2 (1994).
61. WRIGHT & ROSSI, supra note 14, at 184.
62. See, e.g., Braga et al., supra note 10, at 328.
63. BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, US-DEP'T OF JUSTICE, FIREARM USE BY OFFENDERS 6(2001).
64. Christopher S. Koper & Peter Reuter, Suppressing Illegal Gun Markets: Lessons From Drug Enforcement, LAW & CONTEMP. PROBS., Winter 1996, at 119,127.
65. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, DEP'T OF THE TREASURY, CRIME GUN TRACE REPORTS (2000): NATIONAL REPORT 53 (2002) available at ht.tp://www.atf.govA'irearms/ ycgii/2000/index.htm.
66. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 12, at 2.
67. FOLLOWING THE GUN, supra note 20, at 7,24.
68. Id.
69. This result was drawn from a LexisNexis search of all New York City daily papers for "gun trafficking," "gun smuggling," or "gun running."
70. Id.
71. David Heinzmann, Gangs Run Gun Pipeline From Delta to Chicago-Lenient Laws Make Buying Weapons Easier in South, CHI. TRIE., Feb. 5, 2004, at. 1.
72. Id.
73. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40, at 53.
74. FOLLOWING THE GUN, supra note 20, at 13.
75. VIZZARD, supra note 28, at 31.
76. See infra Part I.C.
77. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, COMMERCE IN FIREARMS IN THE UNITED STATES-FEBRUARY 2000 A-21, A-22 (2000).
78. Id. at 30.
79. Id. at 31.
80. FOLLOWING THE GUN, supra note 20, at 11.
81. See, e.g., id.; Braga et al., supra note 10.
82. FOLLOWING THE GUN, supra note 20, at 13 tbl.3 (2000). This report indicates that 40,365 firearms were "trafficked by licensed dealer[s], including pawnbroker[s]," from among a total of 84,128 trafficked firearms identified in 114 investigations of trafficking by licensed dealers.
83. Id. at 13. It is, however, inappropriate to calculate the FFL share as 40,365 out of 84,128, because. ATF double-counted both its investigations and trafficked firearms in multiple "trafficking channel" categories. The sum of the firearms attributed to each separate category was 125,928, indicating that each trafficked gun was counted about 1.5 times (125,928 / 84,128 = 1.5). Using the proper base total, a more correct FFL share would be 32 percent (40,365 /125,928 = 0.321).
84. Id. at 53.
85. Cook & Braga, supra note 18, at 300.
86. FOLLOWING THE GUN, supra note 20, at 11.
87. BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, supra note 38, at 6.
88. SHELEY & WRIGHT, supra note 27, at 49-50.
89. KEN WARNER, GUN DIGEST 1990passim ( 1989).
90. WRIGHT & Rossi, supra note 14 at 233.
91. Cook et al., supra note 10, at 72 n.56.
92. Id.
93. E.g., Richard Lacayo, Running Guns Up the Interstate, TIME, Feb. 6, 1989, at 24;
94. Howard Schneider, Gun-Control Fusillade Heats Up; Rally in Annapolis Backs Bill's Foes, WASH. POST, Mar. 8, 1991, at C5;
95. John F. Harris, Gunrunning Alleged in Indictment-Trail Said to Run From VA. to N.Y., WASH. POST, Jan. 6,1993, at D1.
96. Philip J. Cook et al., Underground Gun Markets, 117 ECON. J. F588, F592-96 (2007).
97. Id.
98. Cook et al., supra note 68, at F594, F616.
99. Cook et al., supra note 10, at 71 n.54.
100. See Cook et al., supra note 68, at F616.
101. Cook & Braga, supra note 18.
102. See Cook et al., supra note 68, at F561-62.
103. Id. at F573.
104. Computed from the data provided in id. at F616 tbl.A4.
105. Id. at F603.
106. See Cook et al., supra note 10, at 72.
107. Id. at 72 n.56.
108. U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, NAT'L INST, OF JUSTICE, DRUG USE FORECASTING IN 24 CITIES IN THE UNITED STATES, 1987-1997 (1998)
109. [GUN ADDENDUM DATA, 1997] (restricted version of ICPSR Study 9477 obtained from the National Archive of Crim. Just. Data, on file with author).
110. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 12, at 33.
111. KEN WARNER, GUN DIGEST 1997 (1996).
112. See, e.g., SHELEY & WRIGHT, supra note 27;
113. U.S. BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, SURVEY OF STATE PRISON INMATES 1991 ( 1993 ) ;
114. U.S. BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, supra note 38;
115. WRIGHT & Rossi, supra note 14;
116. cf. DAVID C. MAY & G. ROGER JARJOURA, ILLEGAL GUNS IN THE WRONG HANDS 8-9 (2006).
117. WRIGHT & Rossi, supra note 14, at. 198-204.
118. Id. at 196.
119. Id. at 200.
120. Id. at 206.
121. Id. at 201-02.
122. Id. at 210-15;
123. SHELEY & WRIGHT, supra note 27, at 47;
124. MAY & JARJOURA, supra note 83, at 37,47 tbl.3.1.
125. WRIGHT &. ROSSI, supra note 14, at 185.
126. Id.
127. Cook et al., supra note 68, at F566-F567;
128. Daniel W. Webster et al., How Delinquent Youths Acquire Guns, 79 J. URB. HEALTH 60, 65-66 (2002).
129. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40, at 68 (2002).
130. Id. at 64.
131. E.g., id. at ix.
132. See, e.g., Cook et al.,
133. supra note 10;
134. Pierce et al., supra note 10;
135. Daniel W. Webster et al., Effects of a Gun Dealer's Change in Sales Practices on the Supply of Guns to Criminals, 83 J. URB. HEALTH 778 (2006).
136. BRADY CTR. TO PREVENT GUN VIOLENCE, WITHOUT A TRACE: HOW THE GUN LOBBY AND THE GOVERNMENT SUPPRESS THE TRUTH ABOUT GUNS AND CRIME U (2006), available at http://www.bradycenter.org/xshare/pdf/reports/giw.pdf (emphasis added).
137. US. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40, at ix (emphasis added).
138. This fallacy is committed if one starts with the premise: If P, then Q. Upon observing that Q is true, one then (wrongly) concludes: Therefore, P is true.
139. Webster et al., supra note 96, at 779.
140. Pierce et al., supra note 10,391-422.
141. Id. at 402.
142. CONCENTRATED URBAN ENFORCEMENT, supra note 20;
143. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40;
144. Zimring, supra note 10.
145. 104- Braga & Pierce, supra note 10, at 740-42.
146. See FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, CRIME IN THE UNITED STATES 2004, at 100 (2005);
147. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, U.S. DEP'T OFJUSTICE, CRIME IN THE UNITED STATES 2003, at 96 (2004);
148. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, U.S. DEP'T OFJUSTICE, CRIME IN THE UNITED STATES 2002, at 92 (2003);
149. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, CRIME IN THE UNITED STATES 2001, at 90 (2002);
150. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, CRIME IN THE UNITED STATES 2000, at 88 (2001) [hereinafter FBI 2000];
151. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, CRIME IN THE UNITED STATES 1999, at 85 (2000) [hereinafter FBI 1999];
152. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, CRIME IN THE UNITED STATES 1998, at 85 (1999) [hereinafter FBI 1998];
153. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, CRIME IN THE UNITED STATES 1997, at 90 (1998) [hereinafter FBI 1997]. Burglaries per 100,000 population for 1996-2003 were (in chronological order): 914, 775, 645, 612, 710, 713, 642, and 737 (computed from City of Boston crime counts and population estimates), while the percent of crime guns with a TTR under three years was 53.8, 36.6, 24.9, 15.6, 15.1, 19.3, 15.5, and 22.3 (derived from Braga and Pierce, supra note 10, at 740).
154. See WRIGHT & ROSSI, supra note 14, at 200-01 (noting that 68 percent of gun thieves who kept a stolen gun for personal use did so because it was "nicer" than the one they were currently carrying).
155. GLENN A. PIERCE ET AL., THE CHARACTERISTICS AND DYNAMICS OF CRIME GUN MARKETS: IMPLICATIONS FOR S'UPPLY-SlDE FOCUSED ENFORCEMENT STRATEGIES 38 (2003), available at http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/208079.pdf.
156. See BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION IN UNITED STATES, 1994 STATISTICAL TABLES, tbl.84.
157. See POLICE FOUND., NATIONAL STUDY OF PRIVATE OWNERSHIP OF FIREARMS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1994, ICPSR version, (1998), available at http://www.icpsr. umich.edu/access/index.html.
158. See, e.g., Cook & Braga, supra note 18, at 308; Braga et al., supra note 10, at 333;
159. Cook et al., supra note 10, at 72;
160. D.W. Webster et al., Relationship Between Licensing, Registration, and Other Gun Sales Laws and the Source State of Crime Guns, 7 INJ. PREVENTION 184 (2001).
161. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40 (drawing figures from each corresponding city report pertaining to 2000).
162. VIZZARD, supranote 28, at 31.
163. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40, New York Section, at 5.
164. Id. atix.
165. BRADY CTR. TO PREVENT GUN VIOLENCE, supra note 97, at 14.
166. Jeremy Travis & William Smarrito, A Modest Proposal to End Gun Running in America, 19 FORDHAM URB. L.J. 795, 802 (1992).
167. See U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40, at 16 tbl.F (noting that only 15.5 percent of traced crime guns recovered in New York City were, originally sold within the state of New York).
168. U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, TABLE 2, NET MIGRATION FOR THE POPULATION 5 YEARS AND OVER FOR THE UNITED STATES, REGIONS, STATES, COUNTIES, NEW ENGLAND MINOR CIVIL DIVISIONS, AND METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000, CENSUS 2000, available at http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/briefs/phc-t22/tables/tab02.pdf (county-level data from New York section of Table 2).
169. GARYKLECK, TARGETING GUNS: FIREARMS AND THEIR CONTROL 97 tbl.3.1 (1997).
170. Illegal Guns By the Millions Fillmg Ciry, N.Y. TIMES, Mar. 31, 1980, at B1.
171. Memorandum From Joe Pascarella to Commanding Officer, Office of Management Analysis and Planning, Police Department, City of New York (Mar. 18, 2005).
172. U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION SURVEYS IN THE NATION'S FIVE LARGEST CITIES: NATIONAL CRIME PANEL SURVEYS OF CHICAGO, DETROIT, LOS ANGELES, NEW YORK, AND PHILADELPHIA 44 (1975).
173. Interpolated from 1970 and 1980 Census data, in BUREAU OF THE CENSUS, U.S. DEP'T OF COMMERCE, COUNTY AND CITY DATA BOOK, 1977 at 723;
174. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS, U.S. DEP'T OF COMMERCE, COUNTY AND CITY DATA BOOK, 1983 at 753.
175. 1-( 1-0.065) 10=0.49 (The probability of any one NYC household suffering a burglary over a ten year period would be one minus the probability of not being burglarized over that period. The probability of not being burglarized in any of the ten years would equal the probability of not being burglarized in any one year, raised to the tenth power, i.e. multiplied times itself ten times. The probability of burglary in any one year was 0.065, so the probability of not experiencing a burglary in any one year was 1-.065 or 0.935, and the probability of not being burglarized in any of ten years would be 0.935 raised to the tenth power, or 0.51. Thus, the probability of being burglarized at least once over the ten year period would be 1-0.51 =0.49, or 49 percent).
176. See, e.g., Patrice O'Shaughnessy, Students Major in Running Guns, N.Y. DAILY NEWS, Sept. 29, 2002, at 4, available at https://www.nydailynews.com/ archives/news/2002/09/29/2002-0929-students-major-in-running-gu.html.
177. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO AND FIREARMS, supra note 40, at 16 tbl.F.
178. See Catherine A. Okoro et al., Prevalence of Household Firearms and Firearms-Storage Practices in the 50 States and the District of Columbia, 116 PEDIATRICS e.370, e372 (2005).
179. E.g., Braga et al., supra note 10, at 333 (stating that many crime guns recovered in cities with tight firearm controls originated in southern states with less restrictive controls); Pierce et al., supra note 10, at 401 (stating that because New York and Boston have relatively strict gun controls, "a higher percentage of guns are imported into diese cities from dealers in states with weaker controls").
180. See COOK & LUDWIG, supra note 34, at 25 tbl.3.11.
181. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40, at ix (emphasis added).
182. Braga, supra note 18, at 300.
183. Koper, supra note 10, at 760.
184. Id. at 758.
185. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40, at 52. The OSN data came from just the eight cities (of forty-six total cities contributing to the 2000 national tracing report) that requested traces from ATF on at least eighty-five crime guns with OSNs. Id. at 50.
186. Koper, supra note 10, at 758.
187. Koper nevertheless asserted that MHS handguns were "at elevated risk for criminal use." Id. at 769. But this was true only within the tiny share (less than 1 percent) of all handguns that were recovered by police within one year of first retail sale, and the even smaller share of Marylandsold guns that were recovered in nearby Washington, D.C. Id. at 761, 767.
188. Garen J. Wintemute et al., Risk Factors Among Handgun Retailers for Frequent and Disproportionate Sales of Guns Used in Violent and Firearm Related Crimes, 11 INJ. PREVENTION 357, 361 (2005).
189. E.g., Pierce et al., supra note 10.
190. Andrew Cuomo, The Role of the Attorney General, N.Y. L.J., Nov. 1, 2006, at 7.
191. See Wintemute et al., supra note 137, at 360.
192. Garen J. Wintemute, Research Letter, Relationship Between Illegal Use of Handguns and Handgun Sales Volume, 284 JAMA 566, 567 (2000).
193. See Wintemute et al., supra note 137, at 360 tbl.4.
194. CONCENTRATED URBAN ENFORCEMENT, supra note 20, at 62.
195. 144- See Cook & Braga, supra note 18, at 277-309.
196. Id. at 302.
197. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, CRIME GUN TRACE REPORTS (1999): NATIONAL REPORT IX (2000).
198. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 12, at 8 (emphasis added).
199. Cook es. Braga, supra note 18, at 737;
200. see also Koper, supra note 10, at 753 (noting that obliterated serial numbers are "an obvious flag for potential trafficking").
201. U.S. CONG. RESEARCH SERV., "ASSAULT WEAPONS": MILITARY-STYLE SEMIAUTOMATIC FIREARMS FACTS AND ISSUES, H.R. REP. NO. 92-434 at 65 ( 1992);
202. COMM. ON LAW & JUSTICE, NAT'L RESEARCH COUNCIL, FIREARMS AND VIOLENCE: A CRITICAL REVIEW 40 (Charles F. Wellford et al. eds., 2004) [hereinafter FIREARMS AND VIOLENCE]; Kleck, supra note 27, at 29-32.
203. FIREARMS AND VIOLENCE, supra note 149, at 40.
204. Id.
205. See, e.g., Christopher S. Koper, Federal .Legislation and Gun Markets: How Much Have Recent Reforms of the Federal Firearms Licensing System Reduced Criminal Gun Suppliers?, 1 CRIMINOLOGY & PUB. POL'Y 151, 155, 175 (2002);
206. Pierce et al., supra note 10; Travis & Smarrito, supra note 116, at 800.
207. U.S. CONG. RESEARCH SERV., supra note 149; FIREARMS AND VIOLENCE, supra note 149.
208. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40, at xii.
209. FIREARMS AND VIOLENCE, supra note 149, at 80.
210. Cook & Braga, supra note 18.
211. See Kleck, supra note 27, at 32;
212. JEFFREY A. ROTH & CHRISTOPHER S. KOPER, IMPACT EVALUATION OF THE PUBLIC SAFETY AND RECREATIONAL FIREARMS USE PROTECTION ACT OF 1994, at 59 (1997);
213. Eleanor Weber-Burdin et al., Weapons Policies: A Survey of Police Department Practices Concerning Weapons and Related Issues 4-9 (1981) (unpublished report to the U.S. Department of Justice, University of Massachusetts, Amherst);
214. Zimring, supra note 10, at 105 n.2.
215. Travis & Smarrito, supra note 116, at 800.
216. See KLECK, supra note 119, at 112.
217. The assault weapons ban was Title XI of the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994, Pub. L. No. 103-322, 108 Stat 1796 (codified as amended in scattered sections of 42 U.S.C). See Christopher S. Koper &
218. Jeffrey A. Roth, The Impact of the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban on Gun Markets, 18 J. QUANTITATIVE CRIMINOLOGY 239, 256-59 (2002).
219. See id. at 260-61.
220. See id. at 257-59.
221. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 12, at 19.
222. See, e.g., Braga et al., supra note 10, at 331-33 (favorably listing studies that use firearms trace data to conclude that "recovered crime guns tend to be quite new");
223. Cook et al., supra note 10, at 62-63 ("[W]e conclude that most guns used in crime.... have been acquired relatively recently.") (citing Zimring, supra note 10);
224. Zimring, supra note 10, at 9.5-96 (supporting the "new guns" hypothesis with a study of "federally initiated traces."). Both Braga et al. and Cook et al. note some limitations of trace data, but then proceed to draw precisely the same conclusions that would follow in the absence of their caveats.
225. FIREARMS AND VIOLENCE, supra note 149, at 80.
226. Pierce et al., supra note 10, at 394.
227. See, e.g., Cook & Braga, supra note 18, at 286;
228. Koper, supra note 10, at 759 (stating that because Baltimore and Washington, D.C. have a comprehensive tracing policy, the cities can provide "complete data on guns recovered in those jurisdictions");
229. Pierce et al., supra note 10, at 397;
230. Wintemute et al., supra note 137, at 361 ("Most traced guns in California come from cities with mandatory tracing policies, so within-jurisdiction selection bias should be minimal.").
231. See, e.g., Braga et al., supra note 10, at 331;
232. Cook & Braga, supra note. 18, at 303-07;
233. Koper, supra note 10, at 759;
234. Pierce et al., supra note 10, at. 397.
235. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 12, at A1.
236. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40, at 67.
237. Id. at 50.
238. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 12, at B3.
239. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO AND FIREARMS, DEP'T OF THE TREASURY, CRIME GUN TRACE REPORTS (1999): NATIONAL REPORT B4, B5 (2000).
240. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO &. FIREARMS, supra note 40, at 68.
241. See id. at 25-27, 68.
242. See supra Part I.C, at 1245-46.
243. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40, at 50, 52.
244. Id. at 50, 52 tbl.21.
245. Id. at 30.
246. These data are available on the Web at BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO, & FIREARMS, supra note 40.
247. COOK & LUDWIG, supra note 34;
248. Gary Kleck, Measures of Gun Ownership Levels for Macro-Level Crime and Violence Research, 41 J. RES. CRIME & DELINQUENCY 3, 8-19 (2004).
249. See AMS. FOR GUN SAFETY FOUND., STOLEN FIREARMS: ARMING THE ENEMY 16, 17 tbl.3 (2002) (report based on NAT'L CRIME INFO. CTR., FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, STOLEN GUN FILE RECORDS (1999-2000)).
250. See JUM C. NUNNALLY, PSYCHOMETRIC THEORY 86-87 (1967).
251. 184- See U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO, & FIREARMS, supra note 40.
252. BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, supra note 33 at tbl.93a.
253. Principal component analysis, using varimax rotation with Kaiser normalization.
254. See Part II.C.6 at 1269.
255. NUNNALLY, supra note 183, at 77-78.
256. See U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, supra note 40, at 50.
257. Cities were, weighted by number of trace requests. Variables present in some crime rate models but not others were omitted because they were found to be unrelated to that specific crime rate.
258. These are estimates from models including the same variables in each model that are shown in this table, but using DLR250ML as the trafficking proxy instead of OSN.
259. For a recent example, of this measure's use as a measure of access to guns among criminals, see Cook & Braga, supra note 18, at 306-07.
260. 194- See John M. Bruce & Clyde Wilcox, Gun Control Laws in the States: Political and Apolitical Influences, in THE CHANGING POLITICS OF GUN CONTROL 139, 150 (John M. Bruce & Clyde Wilcox eds., 1998).
261. See Braga & Pierce, supra note 10, at 722-23.
262. Id. at 741.
263. See FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, UNIFORM. CRIME REPORTS FOR THE UNITED STATES 1996, at 87 (1997) [hereinafter FBI 1996];
264. FBI 1997, supra note 105, at 90; FBI 1998, supra note 105, at 8.5; FBI 1999, supra note 105, at 85;
265. FBI 2000, supra note 105, at 88.
266. See Braga & Pierce, supra note 10, at 740 tbl.3.
267. See Webster et al., supra note 26, at 229.
268. Id.
269. See FBI 1996, supra note 197, at 123, 128;
270. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS FOR THE UNITED STATES 2001, at 130, 137 (2002).
271. See Cook et al., supra note 10, at 80-84.
272. See WRIGHT & ROSSI, supra note 14, at 17 (reporting that 70 percent of felons surveyed reported their most recent handgun acquisition had either been directly stolen by them, definitely stolen by someone else, or probably stolen by someone else).
273. U.S. BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO & FIREARMS, DEP'T OF THE TREASURY, ATF ANNUAL REPORT 1997, at 19 (1997).
274. There were about 281,080 gun theft incidents in 1997, times 2.2 guns stolen per incident. See BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, U.S. DEP'T OF JUSTICE, CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION IN UNITED STATES, 1997 STATISTICAL TABLES, tbl.84, available at http://www.ojp.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cvus97.pdf (last visited May 27, 2009);
275. COOK & LUDWIG, supra note 34, at 30 (dividing number of guns stolen in noncommercial theft in 1994 by total number of gun-owning households that experienced the theft of at least one firearm that year).