Prospective changes in irrigation water requirements caused by agricultural expansion and climate changes in the eastern arc mountains of Kenya

Journal of Environmental Management

Volumn 92, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 982-993

  Maeda, Eduardo Eiji ^a   Pellikka, Petri K E ^a   Clark, Barnaby J F ^a   Siljander, Mika ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

Author keywords

Agricultural expansion; Climate change; Simulation models; Taita hills; Water resources

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; EXPANSION; INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS; IRRIGATION; LAND USE; MONTE CARLO METHODS; WATER RESOURCES; WATER SUPPLY;

AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION; EASTERN ARC MOUNTAINS; IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS; MONTE CARLO'S SIMULATION; PROSPECTIVES; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SIMULATION MODEL; SUSTAINABLE USE; TAITA HILL; WATERS RESOURCES;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AGRICULTURAL LAND; AGRICULTURAL PRACTICE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; DATA SET; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; IRRIGATION SYSTEM; LAND USE CHANGE; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; MOUNTAIN REGION; SUSTAINABILITY; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCE; WATER USE;

AGRICULTURAL PARAMETERS; ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; IRRIGATION (AGRICULTURE); KENYA; LAND USE; MONTE CARLO METHOD; PRECIPITATION; PROSPECTIVE STUDY;

COAST PROVINCE; KENYA; TAITA HILLS;

EID: 78650520160     PISSN: 03014797     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.11.005     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Aeschbacher J., Liniger H., Weingartner R. River water shortage in a Highland-Lowland system. Mountain Research and Development 2005, 25(2):155-162.
2. Alcamo J. Scenarios as Tools for International Environmental Assessments, Experts Corner Reports - Prospects and Scenarios No 5 2001, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.
3. Allen R.G., Pereira L.S., Raes D., Smith M. Crop Evapotranspiration - Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements - FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56 1998, FAO, Rome.
4. Almeida C.M., Gleriani J.M., Castejon E.F., Soares-Filho B.S. Using neural networks and cellular automata for modeling intra-urban land use dynamics. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 2008, 22(9):943-963.
5. Barrios S., Ouattara B., Strobl E. The impact of climatic change on agricultural production: is it different for Africa?. Food Policy 2008, 33:287-298.
6. Boardman, J.W., Kruse, F.A., 1994. Automated spectral analysis: a geological example using AVIRIS data, north Grapevine Mountains, Nevada. In: Proceedings, ERIM Tenth Thematic Conference on Geologic Remote Sensing, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, pp. I-407-I-418.
7. Brink A.B., Eva H.D. Monitoring 25 years of land cover change dynamics in Africa: a sample based remote sensing approach. Applied Geography 2009, 29(4):501-512.
8. Brouwer C., Heibloem M. Irrigation Water Management. Training Manual (FAO) 1986, vol. 3. FAO, Rome (Italy), Prov. ed., 60 pp.
9. Burgess N.D., Butynski T.M., Cordeiro N.J., Doggart N.H., Fjeldså J., Howell K.M., Kilahama F.B., Loader S.P., Lovett J.C., Mbilinyi B., Menegon M., Moyer D.C., Nashanda E., Perkin A., Rovero F., Stanley W.T., Stuart S.N. The biological importance of the EasternArc mountains of Tanzania and Kenya. Biological Conservation 2007, 134(2):209-231.
10. Cai J., Liu Y., Lei T., Pereira L.S. Estimating reference evapotranspiration with the FAO Penman-Monteith equation using daily weather forecast messages. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2007, 145(1-2):22-35.
11. Clark B.J.F., Pellikka P.K.E. Landscape analysis using multiscale segmentation and object orientated classification. ISPRS Book Series in Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences 2009, vol. 8:323-342. Taylor & Francis Group. A. Röder, J. Hill (Eds.).
12. Díaz R.J., Weatherhead E., Knox J., Camacho E. Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements in the Guadalquivir river basin in Spain. Regional Environmental Change 2007, 7(3):149-159.
13. Du T., Kang S., Sun J., Zhang X., Zhang J. An improved water use efficiency of cereals under temporal and spatial deficit irrigation in north China. Agricultural Water Management 2010, 97(1):66-74.
14. Ewers R.M., Scharlemann J.P.W., Balmford A., Green R.E. Do increases in agricultural yield spare land for nature?. Global Change Biology 2009, 15(7):1716-1726.
15. FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Land and Water Development Division. Irrigation Potential in Africa: a Basin Approach 1997, FAO, 177 pp.
16. FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Land and Water Development Division AQUASTAT Information System on Water and Agriculture: Online database 2005, FAO, Rome.
17. Fischer G., Tubiello F.N., van Velthuizen H., Wiberg D.A. Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: effects of mitigation, 1990-2080. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2007, 74(7):1083-1107.
18. Gavilán P., Lorite I.J., Tornero S., Berengena J. Regional calibration of Hargreaves equation for estimating reference ET in a semiarid environment. Agriculture Water Management 2006, 81:257-281.
19. Germer S., Neill C., Krusche A.V., Elsenbeer H. Influence of land-use change on near-surface hydrological processes: undisturbed forest to pasture. Journal of Hydrology 2010, 380(3-4):473-480.
20. Githui F., Mutua F., Bauwens W. Estimating the impacts of land-cover change on runoff using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT): case study of Nzoia catchment, Kenya. Hydrological Sciences Journal 2009, 54(5):899-908.
21. Hagen A. Fuzzy set approach to assessing similarity of categorical maps. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 2003, 17(3):235-249.
22. Hargreaves G.H., Samani Z.A. Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Applied Engineering in Agriculture 1985, 1(2):96-99.
23. Harmel R.D., Richardson C.W., Hanson C.L., Johnson G.L. Evaluating the adequacy of simulating maximum and minimum daily air temperature with the normal distribution. Journal of Applied Meteorology 2002, 41:744-753.
24. Hassanli A.M., Ahmadirad S., Beecham S. Evaluation of the influence of irrigation methods and water quality on sugar beet yield and water use efficiency. Agricultural Water Management 2010, 97(2):357-362.
25. Himberg N., Omoro L.M.A., Pellikka P., Luukkanen O. The benefits and constraints of participation in forest management. The case of Taita Hills, Kenya. Fennia 2009, 187:61-76.
26. Husak G.J., Michaelsen J., Funk C. Use of the gamma distribution to represent monthly rainfall in Africa for drought monitoring applications. International Journal of Climatology 2007, 27:935-944.
27. Hutchinson M.F. Interpolating mean rainfall using thin plate smoothing splines. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 1995, 9:305-403.
28. Summary for Policymakers: Synthesis Report 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Paris.
29. Jabloun M., Sahli A. Evaluation of FAO-56 methodology for estimating reference evapotranspiration using limited climatic data. Application to Tunisia. Agricultural Water Management 2008, 95(6):707-715.
30. Jaetzold R., Schmidt H. Farm Management Handbook of Kenya 1983, vol. II. Ministry of Agriculture, Kenya, East Kenya.
31. Justice C.O., Townshend J.R.G., Vermote E.F., Masouka E., Wolfe R.E., Saleous S., Roy D.P., Morisette J.T. An overview of MODIS Land data processing and product status. Remote Sensing of Environment 2002, 83:3-15.
32. Koomen E., Rietveld P., Nijs de T. Modelling land-use change for spatial planning support. The Annals of Regional Science 2008, 42(1):1-10.
33. Li Z., Liu W., Zhang X., Zheng F. Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China. Journal of Hydrology 2009, 377(1-2):35-42.
34. Maeda E.E., Clark B.J.F., Pellikka P.K.E., Siljander M. Modelling agricultural expansion in Kenya's eastern arc mountains biodiversity hotspot. Agricultural Systems 2010, 10.1016/j.agsy.2010.07.004.
35. Maeda, E.E., Wiberg, D.A., Pellikka, P.K.E., 2010. Estimating reference evapotranspiration using remote sensing and empirical models in a region with limited ground data availability in Kenya. Applied Geography. Vol: 31(1): 251-258 doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.05.011
36. Maeda E.E., Pellikka P., Clark B.J.F. Monte Carlo Simulation and remote sensing applied to agricultural survey sampling strategy in Taita Hills, Kenya. African Journal of Agricultural Research 2010, 5(13):1647-1654.
37. 2. Geophysical Research Letters 2005, 32:L01707. 10.1029/2004GL021632.
38. Myers N., Mittermeier R.A., Mittermeier C.G., Fonseca G.A.B., Kent J. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 2000, 403(6772):853-858.
39. Nakicenovic N., Alcamo J., Davis G., de Vries B., Fenhann J., Gaffin S., Gregory K., Grübler A., Jung T.Y., Kram T., Lebre la Rovere E., Michaelis L., Mori S., Morita T., Pepper W., Pitcher H., Price L., Riahi K., Roehrl A., Rogner H.H., Sankovski A., Schlesinger M., Shukla P., Smith S., Swart R., van Rooijen S., Victor N., Dadi Z. Emissions Scenarios: a Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2000, CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, 509 pp.
40. Oki T., Kanae S. Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science 2006, 313(1068):1068-1072.
41. Ortega-Farias S., Irmak S., Cuenca R. Special issue on evapotranspiration measurement and modeling. Irrigation Science 2009, 28(1):1-3.
42. Pellikka P.K.E., Lötjönen M., Siljander M., Lens L. Airborne remote sensing of spatiotemporal change (1955-2004) in indigenous and exotic forest cover in the Taita Hills, Kenya. International Journal of Applied Earth Observations and Geoinformation 2009, 11(4):221-232.
43. Rockstrom J., Falkenmark M., Karlberg L., Hoff H., Rost S., Gerten D. Future water availability for global food production: the potential of green water for increasing resilience to global change. Water Resources Research 2009, 45:W00A12. 10.1029/2007WR006767.
44. Rubinstein R.Y., Kroese D.P. Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method 2007, John Wiley & Sons, New York. second ed.
45. Schmidhuber J., Tubiello F.N. Global food security under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2007, 104(50):19703-19708.
46. Semenov M.A., Barrow E.M. Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change 1997, 35:397-414.
47. Soares-Filho B.S., Pennachin C.L., Cerqueira G. DINAMICA - a stochastic cellular automata model designed to simulate the landscape dynamics in an Amazonian colonization frontier. Ecological Modelling 2002, 154(3):217-235.
48. Soares-Filho, B.S., Garcia, R.A., Rodrigues, H.O. et al., 2007, Coupling socioeconomic and demographic dimensions to a spatial simulation model of deforestation for the Brazilian Amazon. Paper presented at the LBA-ECO 11th Science Team Meeting.
49. Stockle C.O., Nelson R. ClimGen, a Weather Generator Program 1999, WashingtonState University.
50. Thornton P.K., Jones P.G., Alagarswamy G., Andresen J. Spatial variation of crop yield response to climate change in East Africa. Global Environmental Change 2009, 19(1):54-65.
51. Thornton P.K., Jones P.G., Alagarswamy G., Andresen J., Herrero M. Adapting to climate change: agricultural system and household impacts in East Africa. Agricultural Systems 2010, 103(2):73-82.
52. Townshend J.R.G., Justice C.O. Selecting the spatial resolution of satellite sensors required for global monitoring of land transformations. International Journal of Remotes Sensing 1988, 9:187-236.
53. World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database 2008, United Nations (UN).
54. Veldkamp A., Verburg P.H. Modelling land use change and environmental impact. Journal of Environmental Management 2004, 72(1-2):1-3.
55. Viviroli D., Weingartner R. " Water towers" -A global view of the hydrological importance of mountains. Mountains: Sources of Water, Sources of Knowledge 2008, 15-20. E. Wiegandt (Ed.).
56. Wan Z. New refinements and validation of the MODIS land-surface temperature/emissivity products. Remote Sensing of Environment 2008, 112:59-74.
57. Wan Z., Zhang Y., Zhang Y.Q., Li Z.-L. Validation of the land-surface temperature products retrieved from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data. Remote Sensing of Environment 2002, 83:163-180.
58. Wang K., Wan Z., Wang P., Sparrow M., Liu J., Zhou X., Haginoya S. Estimation of surface long wave radiation and broadband emissivity using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature/emissivity products. Journal of Geophysical Research 2005, 110:D11109.
59. Wilks D. Maximum likelihood estimation for the gamma distribution using data containing zeros. Journal of Climate 1990, 3:1495-1501.
60. Yang D.W., Kanae S., Oki T., Koike T., Musiake K. Global potential soil erosion with reference to land use and climate changes. Hydrological Processes 2003, 17(14):2913-2928.