Modelling the dynamics of dengue real epidemics

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Volumn 368, Issue 1933, 2010, Pages 5679-5693

  Pinho, S T R ^a   Ferreira, C P ^b   Esteva, L ^c   Barreto, R ^a   Morato E Silva, V C ^a   Teixeira, M G L ^a  

^a FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF BAHIA   (Brazil)

^b SÃO PAULO STATE UNIVERSITY UNESP   (Brazil)

^c UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO   (Mexico)

Author keywords

Dengue modelling; Effective reproductive number; Epidemic time series; Non linear differential equations

Indexed keywords

BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH; DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS; EPIDEMIOLOGY; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MOSQUITO CONTROL; TIME SERIES;

BASIC REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER; CONTROL PARAMETERS; DENGUE MODELLING; EPIDEMIC TIME SERIES; NONLINEAR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION; REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER; TIME EVOLUTIONS;

PEST CONTROL;

ALGORITHM; ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BRAZIL; CITY; DENGUE; DISEASE FREE SURVIVAL; EPIDEMIC; HUMAN; MOSQUITO; STATISTICAL MODEL; TEMPERATURE; THEORETICAL MODEL;

ALGORITHMS; ANIMALS; BRAZIL; CITIES; CULICIDAE; DENGUE; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; DISEASE-FREE SURVIVAL; HUMANS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; MODELS, THEORETICAL; TEMPERATURE;

EID: 78650495192     PISSN: 1364503X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0278     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. Akkouchi, M. 2008 On the convolution of exponential distributions. J. Chungcheong Math. Soc. 21, 501-510.
2. Burattini, M. N., Chen, M., Chow, A., Coutinho, F. A. B., Goh, K. T., Lopez, L. F., Ma, S. & Massad, E. 2008 Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore. Epidemiol. Infect. 136, 309-319. (doi:10.1017/S0950268807008667) (Pubitemid 351233846)
3. Coelho, G. E., Burattini, M. N., Teixeira, M. G., Coutinho, F. A. B. & Massad, E. 2008 Dynamics of the 2006/2007 dengue outbreak in Brazil. Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz 103, 535-539. (doi:10.1590/S0074-02762008000600004)
4. Dibo, M. R., Chierotti, A. P., Ferrari, M. S., Mendonga, A. L. & Neto, F. C. 2008 Study of the relationship between Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti egg and adult densities, dengue fever and climate in Mirassol, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz 103, 554-560. (doi:10.1590/S0074- 02762008000600008)
5. Diekmann, O. & Heesterbeek, J. A. P. 2000 Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases: model building, analysis and interpretation. New York, NY: Wiley.
6. Esteva, L. & Yang, H. M. 2005 Mathematical model to assess the control of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes by the sterile insect technique. Math. Biosci. 198, 132-147. (doi:10.1016/ j.mbs.2005.06.004)
7. Favier, C. et al. 2006 Early determination of the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases: the case of dengue in Brazil. Trop. Med. Int. Health 11, 332-340. (doi:10.1111/ j.1365-3156.2006.01560.x
8. Ferreira, C. P., Yang, H. M. & Esteva, L. 2008 Assessing the suitability of sterile insect technique applied to Aedes aegypti. J. Biol. Systems 16, 1-13. (doi:10.1142/S0218339008002691)
9. Focks, D. A., Haili, D. G., Daniels, E., & Mount, G. A. 1993 Dynamic life table model of Aedes aegypti (Dipetera: Culicidae): analysis of the literature and model development. J. Med. Entomol. 30, 1003-1017. (Pubitemid 2000607)
10. Massad, E., Coutinho, F. A. B., Burattini, M. N. & Lopez, L. F. 2001 The risk of yellow fever in a dengue-infested area. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 95, 370-374. (doi:10.1016/S0035-9203(01)90184-1)
11. Massad, E., Coutinho, F. A. B., Burattini, M. N. & Amaku, M. 2010 Estimation of R0 from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection. Trop. Med. Int. Health 15, 120-126. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2009. 02413.x)
12. McBridea, W. J. H. & Bielefeldt-Ohmannb, H. 2000 Dengue viral infections; pathogenesis and epidemiology. Microbes Infect. 2, 1041-1050. (doi:10.1016/S1286-4579(00)01258-2) (Pubitemid 30664218)
13. Newton, E. A. C & Reiter, P. 1992 A model of the transmission of dengue fever with an evaluation of the impact of ultra-low volume (ULV) insecticide applications on dengue epidemic. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 47, 709-720.
14. Santos, L. B. L., Costa, M. C., Pinho, S. T. R., Andrade, R. F. S., Barreto, F. R., Teixeira, M. G. & Barreto, M. L. 2009 Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease. Phys. Rev. E 80, 016102. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.80.016102)
15. Teixeira, M. G., Costa, M. C. N., Barreto, F. & Barreto, M. L. 2009 Dengue: twenty-five years since re-emergence in Brazil. Cad. Saude Publica 25 (Suppl. 1), S7-S18. (doi:10.1590/ S0102-311X2009001300002)
16. Van den Driessche, P. & Watmough, J. 2002 Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math. Biosci. 180, 29-48. (doi:10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6) (Pubitemid 35304346)
17. Wallinga, J. & Lipsitch, M. 2007 How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proc.R.Soc.B 274, 599-604. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2006.3754) (Pubitemid 47055535)
18. Whitehead, S. S., Blaney, J. E., Durbin, A. P. & Murphy, B. R. 2007 Prospects for a dengue virus vaccine. Nat. Rev. Microbiol. 5, 518-528. (doi:10.1038/nrmicro1690) (Pubitemid 46925380)
19. Yang, H. M. & Ferreira, C. P. 2008 Assessing the effects of vector control on dengue transmission. Appl. Math. Comput. 198, 401-413. (doi:10.1016/j.amc.2007.08.046 (Pubitemid 351329396)
20. Yang, H. M., Macoris, M. L. G., Galvani, K. C., Andrighetti, M. T. M. & Wanderley, D. M. V. 2009a Assessing the effects of temperature on dengue transmission. Epidemiol. Infect. 137, 1179-1187. (doi:10.1017/S0950268809002052
21. Yang, H. M., Macoris, M. L. G., Galvani, K. C., Andrighetti, M. T. M. & Wanderley, D. M. V. 2009b Assesing the effects of temperature on the population of Aedes aegypti, the vector of dengue. Epidemiol. Infect. 137, 1188-1202. (doi:10.1017/S0950268809002040