Handling parameter and model uncertainties by continuous gates in fault tree analyses

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability

Volumn 224, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 253-265

  Brissaud, F ^a   Barros, A ^b   Berenguer C ^b   Troffaes, Matthias ^b  

^a INSTITUT NATIONAL DE L ENVIRONNEMENT INDUSTRIEL ET DES RISQUES INERIS   (France)

^b UNIVERSITÉ DE TECHNOLOGIE DE TROYES   (France)

Author keywords

Fault tree analysis; Model uncertainty; Parameter uncertainty; Probabilistic risk assessment; Subjectivism; Uncertainty analysis

Indexed keywords

EQUIVALENT FAULTS; FAILURE RATE; FAULT-TREES; MODEL UNCERTAINTIES; MODEL UNCERTAINTY; NEW TECHNOLOGIES; PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY; PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT; RELIABILITY EVALUATION; RELIABILITY TOOLS; SAFETY SYSTEM; SUBJECTIVISM;

FAULT TREE ANALYSIS; QUALITY ASSURANCE; RATING; RELIABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 78650457783     PISSN: 1748006X     EISSN: 17480078     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1243/1748006XJRR313     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. G Apostolakis, 'The interpretation of probability in probability safety assessments' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 23 (1988): 247-252
2. G Apostolakis, 'The concept of probability in safety assessment of technological systems' Science 250 (1990): 1359-1364
3. R. L Winkler, 'Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 54 (1996): 127-132
4. J. C Helton, J. D Johnson, C. J Sallaberry, C. B Storlie, 'Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 91 (2006): 1175-1209
5. J. C Helton, D. E Burmaster, 'Guest editorial: treatment of aleatory and espistemic uncertainty in performance assessments for complex systems' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 54 (1996): 91-94
6. W. L Oberkampf, J. C Helton, C. A Joslyn, S. F Wojtkiewicz, S Ferson, 'Challenge problems: uncertainty in system response given uncertain parameters' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 85 (2004): 11-19
7. E Zio, G. E Apostolakis, 'Two methods for the structured assessment of model uncertainty by experts in performance assessments of radioactive waste repositories' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 54 (1996): 225-241
8. A O'Hagan, J. E Oakley, 'Probability is perfect, but we can't elicit it perfectly' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 85 (2004): 239-248
9. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, An approach for using probabilities risk assessment in risk-informed decisions on plant-specific changes to the licensing basis (Regulatory guide 1.174) Revision 1 (Washington, DC: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission 2002)
10. J. M Reinert, G. E Apostolakis, 'Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision making' Ann. Nucl. Energ. 33 (2006): 354-369
11. G Apostolakis, Y. T Lee, 'Methods for estimation of confidence bounds for top-event unavailability of fault trees' Nucl. Engng Des. 41 (1977): 411-419
12. A. M Rushdi, K. F Kafrawy, 'Uncertainty propagation in fault-tree analyses using an exact method of moments' Microelectron. Reliab. 26 (1988): 945-965
13. E Castillo, J. M Sarabia, C Solares, P Gomez, 'Uncertainty analyses in fault trees and Bayesian networks using FORM SORM methods' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 65 (1999): 29-40
14. D Singer, 'A fuzzy set approach to fault tree and reliability analysis' Fuzzy Sets Syst. 34 (1990): 145-155
15. K. B Misra, G. G Weber, 'Use of fuzzy set theory for level-I studies in probabilistic risk assessment' Fuzzy Sets Syst. 37 (1990): 139-160
16. J. C Helton, J. D Johnson, W. L Oberkampf, 'An exploration of alternative approaches to the representation of uncertainty in model predictions' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 85 (2004): 39-71
17. U Hauptmanns, 'The impact of reliability data on probabilistic safety calculation' J. Loss Prev. Process Ind. 21 (2008): 38-49
18. D. P Gallegos, E. J Bonano, 'Consideration of uncertainty in the performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal from an international regulatory perspective' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 42 (1993): 111-123
19. N Duflot, C Bérenguer, L Dieulle, D Vasseur, 'A min cut-set-wise truncation procedure for importance measures computation in probabilistic safety assessment' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 94 (2009): 1827-1837
20. M Rausand, A Hyland, System reliability theory; Models, statistical methods, and applications (New York, New York: Wiley 2002)
21. J. K Knudsen, C. L Smith, E. J Bonano Ed., A. L Camp Ed., M. J Majors Ed., R. A Thompson Ed., 'Estimation of system failure probability uncertainty including model success criteria'
22. H. S Pan, W. Y Yun, 'Fault tree analyses with fuzzy gates' Comput. Ind. Engng 33 (1997): 569-572
23. F Brissaud, A Barros, C Bérenguer, D Charpentier, R Bris Ed., C. G Soares Ed., S Martorell Ed., 'Design of complex safety-related systems in accordance with IEC 61508' International Electrotechnical Commission, Functional safety of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic safety-related systems (IEC 61508) (Geneva, Switzerland: International Electrotechnical Commission 2002)
24. F Brissaud, A Barros, C Bérenguer, D Charpentier, Reliability analysis for new technology-based transmitters. Paper submitted for publication, Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf., 2010
25. C. J Garrett, G. E Apostolakis, 'Automated hazard analysis of digital control systems' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 77 (2002): 1-17
26. R. E Barlow, F Proschan, Statistical theory of reliability and life testing; Probability models (New York, New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston 1975)
27. F Brissaud, A Barros, C Bérenguer, D Charpentier, H Pham Ed., T Nakagawa Ed., 'Reliability study of an intelligent transmitter'
28. Y Dutuit, A Rauzy, 'Exact and truncated computations of prime implicants of coherent and non-coherent fault trees within Aralia' Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf. 58 (1997): 127-144
29. V. K Rohatgi, An introduction to probability theory and mathematical statistics (New York, New York: Wiley 1976)