메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 17, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 385-392

On the assessment of the value of the seasonal forecast information

Author keywords

Economic value of seasonal forecasts; Forecast application; Forecast value; Seasonal forecast

Indexed keywords

RISK MANAGEMENT;

EID: 78649706107     PISSN: 13504827     EISSN: 14698080     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/met.167     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (27)

References (54)
  • 2
    • 0000933821 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A forecast product that maximizes utility for state-of-the-art seasonal climate predictions
    • Barnston AG, He Y, Unger DA. 2000. A forecast product that maximizes utility for state-of-the-art seasonal climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81: 1271-1279.
    • (2000) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , vol.81 , pp. 1271-1279
    • Barnston, A.G.1    He, Y.2    Unger, D.A.3
  • 3
    • 33644540553 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climatic information and decision-making in maize crop production systems of the Argentinean Pampas
    • Bert FE, Satorre EH, Toranzo FR, Podesta GP. 2006. Climatic information and decision-making in maize crop production systems of the Argentinean Pampas. Agricultural Systems 88: 180-204.
    • (2006) Agricultural Systems , vol.88 , pp. 180-204
    • Bert, F.E.1    Satorre, E.H.2    Toranzo, F.R.3    Podesta, G.P.4
  • 4
    • 18544386239 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modeling in Europe
    • Cantelaube P, Terres JM. 2005. Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modeling in Europe. Tellus-A 57: 476-487.
    • (2005) Tellus-A , vol.57 , pp. 476-487
    • Cantelaube, P.1    Terres, J.M.2
  • 5
    • 33744811201 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Countering the loading-dock approach to linking science and decision making
    • Cash DW, Borck JC, Patt AG. 2006. Countering the loading-dock approach to linking science and decision making. Science Technology and Human Values 31: 465-494.
    • (2006) Science Technology and Human Values , vol.31 , pp. 465-494
    • Cash, D.W.1    Borck, J.C.2    Patt, A.G.3
  • 6
    • 0002468187 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impacts of 1997-98 El Niño generated weather in the United States
    • Chagnon SA. 1999. Impacts of 1997-98 El Niño generated weather in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80: 1819-1828.
    • (1999) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , vol.80 , pp. 1819-1828
    • Chagnon, S.A.1
  • 7
    • 38049183740 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Empirical Methods in Short Term Climate Predictions
    • Oxford University Press: Oxford
    • van den Dool HM. 2007. Empirical Methods in Short Term Climate Predictions. Oxford University Press: Oxford, 240 pp.
    • (2007) , pp. 240
    • van den Dool, H.M.1
  • 8
    • 37349127599 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate forecast and prediction product dissemination for agriculture in the United States
    • Garbrecht JD, Schneider JM. 2007. Climate forecast and prediction product dissemination for agriculture in the United States. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 58: 966-974.
    • (2007) Australian Journal of Agricultural Research , vol.58 , pp. 966-974
    • Garbrecht, J.D.1    Schneider, J.M.2
  • 9
    • 78649707925 scopus 로고
    • Usable Science II: The Use and Mis-Use of El Niño Information in North America
    • NCAR: Boulder
    • Glantz MH. 1985. Usable Science II: The Use and Mis-Use of El Niño Information in North America. NCAR: Boulder, 260 pp.
    • (1985) , pp. 260
    • Glantz, M.H.1
  • 12
    • 0003426953 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: An Australian Experience
    • Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds). Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht,
    • Hammer GL. 2000. A general systems approach to applying seasonal climate forecasts. In Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: An Australian Experience, Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds). Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht, 51-65.
    • (2000) A general systems approach to applying seasonal climate forecasts , pp. 51-65
    • Hammer, G.L.1
  • 14
    • 0003070788 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: An Australian Experience
    • Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds).. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht,
    • Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds). 2000. Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: An Australian Experience. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht, 469.
    • (2000) , pp. 469
  • 15
    • 33645741676 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Integrating seasonal climate prediction and agricultural models for insights into agricultural practice
    • Hansen JW. 2005. Integrating seasonal climate prediction and agricultural models for insights into agricultural practice. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 360: 2037-2047.
    • (2005) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B , vol.360 , pp. 2037-2047
    • Hansen, J.W.1
  • 16
    • 34250748467 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges
    • Hansen JW, Challinor A, Ines A, Wheeler T, Moron V. 2006. Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges. Climate Research 33: 27-41.
    • (2006) Climate Research , vol.33 , pp. 27-41
    • Hansen, J.W.1    Challinor, A.2    Ines, A.3    Wheeler, T.4    Moron, V.5
  • 17
    • 21744434517 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The development of seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting
    • Harrison M. 2005. The development of seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting. Climate Change 70: 201-220.
    • (2005) Climate Change , vol.70 , pp. 201-220
    • Harrison, M.1
  • 19
    • 0035441953 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Use of seasonal climate forecasts in rangeland-based livestock operations in west Texas
    • Johec KG. 2001. Use of seasonal climate forecasts in rangeland-based livestock operations in west Texas. Journal of Applied Meteorology 40: 1629-1639.
    • (2001) Journal of Applied Meteorology , vol.40 , pp. 1629-1639
    • Johec, K.G.1
  • 21
    • 34249729334 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the interpretation of skill information for skill climate predictions
    • Kumar A. 2007. On the interpretation of skill information for skill climate predictions. Monthly Weather Review 135: 1974-1984.
    • (2007) Monthly Weather Review , vol.135 , pp. 1974-1984
    • Kumar, A.1
  • 23
    • 34548129205 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new methodology for estimating the unpredictable component of seasonal atmospheric variability
    • Kumar A, Jha B, Zhang Q, Bounoua L. 2007. A new methodology for estimating the unpredictable component of seasonal atmospheric variability. Journal of Climate 20: 3888-3901.
    • (2007) Journal of Climate , vol.20 , pp. 3888-3901
    • Kumar, A.1    Jha, B.2    Zhang, Q.3    Bounoua, L.4
  • 24
    • 34249660979 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Equity in forecasting climate: can science save the world's poor
    • Lemos MC, Dilling L. 2007. Equity in forecasting climate: can science save the world's poor. Science and Public Policy 34: 109-116.
    • (2007) Science and Public Policy , vol.34 , pp. 109-116
    • Lemos, M.C.1    Dilling, L.2
  • 25
    • 18744392026 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The uncertain value of perfect ENSO phase forecasts: stochastic agricultural prices and intra-phase climatic variations
    • Letson D, Podesta GP, Messina CD, Ferreyra RA. 2005. The uncertain value of perfect ENSO phase forecasts: stochastic agricultural prices and intra-phase climatic variations. Climate Change 69: 163-196.
    • (2005) Climate Change , vol.69 , pp. 163-196
    • Letson, D.1    Podesta, G.P.2    Messina, C.D.3    Ferreyra, R.A.4
  • 26
    • 0041730605 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the value of climate forecasts information for pastoralists: evidence from southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya
    • Lusenso WK, McPeak JG, Barrett CB, Little PD, Gebru G. 2003. Assessing the value of climate forecasts information for pastoralists: evidence from southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya. World Development 11: 1477-1494.
    • (2003) World Development , vol.11 , pp. 1477-1494
    • Lusenso, W.K.1    McPeak, J.G.2    Barrett, C.B.3    Little, P.D.4    Gebru, G.5
  • 27
    • 4344600180 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The cost of uncertainty in weather predictions: modeling quality-value relationship for yes/no forecasts
    • Mason I. 2004. The cost of uncertainty in weather predictions: modeling quality-value relationship for yes/no forecasts. Australian Meteorological Magazine 53: 111-122.
    • (2004) Australian Meteorological Magazine , vol.53 , pp. 111-122
    • Mason, I.1
  • 29
    • 0001023806 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience
    • Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds). Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht
    • Meinke H, Hochman Z. 2000. Using seasonal climate forecasts to manage dryland crops in northern Australia. In Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience, Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds). Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht; 149-165.
    • (2000) Using seasonal climate forecasts to manage dryland crops in northern Australia , pp. 149-165
    • Meinke, H.1    Hochman, Z.2
  • 30
    • 21744440251 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: the new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations
    • Meinke H, Stone RC. 2005. Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: the new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations. Climate Change 70: 221-253.
    • (2005) Climate Change , vol.70 , pp. 221-253
    • Meinke, H.1    Stone, R.C.2
  • 31
    • 0000139618 scopus 로고
    • Obtaining lower and upper bounds on the value of seasonal climate forecasts as a function of risk references
    • Mjelde JW, Cochran MJ. 1988. Obtaining lower and upper bounds on the value of seasonal climate forecasts as a function of risk references. Western Journal of Agricultural Economics 13: 285-293.
    • (1988) Western Journal of Agricultural Economics , vol.13 , pp. 285-293
    • Mjelde, J.W.1    Cochran, M.J.2
  • 32
    • 0034127345 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamic aspects of the impact of the use of perfect climate forecasts in the corn belt region
    • Mjelde JW, Penson JB Jr. 2000. Dynamic aspects of the impact of the use of perfect climate forecasts in the corn belt region. Journal of Applied Meteorology 39: 67-79.
    • (2000) Journal of Applied Meteorology , vol.39 , pp. 67-79
    • Mjelde, J.W.1    Penson Jr, J.B.2
  • 33
    • 40849120144 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weather types and rainfall over Senegal. Part II: downscaling of GCM simulations
    • Moron V, Robertson AW, Ward MN, Ndiaye O. 2008. Weather types and rainfall over Senegal. Part II: downscaling of GCM simulations. Journal of Climate 21: 288-307.
    • (2008) Journal of Climate , vol.21 , pp. 288-307
    • Moron, V.1    Robertson, A.W.2    Ward, M.N.3    Ndiaye, O.4
  • 34
    • 34250785081 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ex post assessment methods of climate forecast impacts
    • Msangi S, Rosegrant MW, You L. 2006. Ex post assessment methods of climate forecast impacts. Climate Research 33: 67-79.
    • (2006) Climate Research , vol.33 , pp. 67-79
    • Msangi, S.1    Rosegrant, M.W.2    You, L.3
  • 35
    • 0022174182 scopus 로고
    • Decision making and the value of forecasts in a generalized model of the cost-loss ratio situation
    • Murphy AL. 1985. Decision making and the value of forecasts in a generalized model of the cost-loss ratio situation. Monthly Weather Review 113: 362-369.
    • (1985) Monthly Weather Review , vol.113 , pp. 362-369
    • Murphy, A.L.1
  • 36
    • 0027706813 scopus 로고
    • What is good forecast? An easy on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting
    • Murphy AL. 1993. What is good forecast? An easy on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather and Forecasting 8: 281-283.
    • (1993) Weather and Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 281-283
    • Murphy, A.L.1
  • 38
    • 0036541002 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: from days to decades
    • Palmer TN. 2002. The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: from days to decades. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 128: 747-774.
    • (2002) Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , vol.128 , pp. 747-774
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 41
    • 0031417795 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate and Salmon restoration in Columbia river basis: the role and usability of seasonal forecasts
    • Pulwarty RS, Redmond KT. 1997. Climate and Salmon restoration in Columbia river basis: the role and usability of seasonal forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 381-397.
    • (1997) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , vol.78 , pp. 381-397
    • Pulwarty, R.S.1    Redmond, K.T.2
  • 43
    • 34250783982 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Economics and climate applications: exploring the frontier
    • Rubas DJ, Hill HSJ, Mjelde JW. 2006. Economics and climate applications: exploring the frontier. Climate Research 33: 43-54.
    • (2006) Climate Research , vol.33 , pp. 43-54
    • Rubas, D.J.1    Hill, H.S.J.2    Mjelde, J.W.3
  • 44
    • 0037594575 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A measure of the usefulness of seasonal precipitation forecasts for agricultural applications
    • Schneider JM, Garbrecht JD. 2003. A measure of the usefulness of seasonal precipitation forecasts for agricultural applications. American Society of Agricultural Engineers 26: 257-267.
    • (2003) American Society of Agricultural Engineers , vol.26 , pp. 257-267
    • Schneider, J.M.1    Garbrecht, J.D.2
  • 45
    • 0003488494 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Making Climate Forecasts Matter
    • National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.
    • Stern PC, Easterling WE. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.; pp 95-124.
    • (1999) , pp. 95-124
    • Stern, P.C.1    Easterling, W.E.2
  • 48
    • 34250777275 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ex ante impact assessment and seasonal climate forecasts: status and issues
    • Thornton PK. 2006. Ex ante impact assessment and seasonal climate forecasts: status and issues. Climate Research 33: 55-65.
    • (2006) Climate Research , vol.33 , pp. 55-65
    • Thornton, P.K.1
  • 49
    • 0032577959 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures
    • Trenberth KE, Branstrator GW, Karoly D, Kumar A, Lau N-C, Ropelewski C. 1998. Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research 107(C7): 14291-14324.
    • (1998) Journal of Geophysical Research , vol.107 , Issue.C7 , pp. 14291-14324
    • Trenberth, K.E.1    Branstrator, G.W.2    Karoly, D.3    Kumar, A.4    Lau, N.5    Ropelewski, C.6
  • 50
    • 60149085938 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk
    • Springer-Verlag: New York
    • Trocolli A, Harrison M, Anderson DLT, Mason SJ. 2008. Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk. Springer-Verlag: New York, 466 pp.
    • (2008) , pp. 466
    • Trocolli, A.1    Harrison, M.2    Anderson, D.L.T.3    Mason, S.J.4
  • 51
    • 31144451253 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification and value of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology township seasonal rainfall forecasts in Australia, 1997-2005
    • Vizard AL, Anderson GA, Buckley DJ. 2005. Verification and value of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology township seasonal rainfall forecasts in Australia, 1997-2005. Meteorological Applications 12: 343-255.
    • (2005) Meteorological Applications , vol.12 , pp. 343-255
    • Vizard, A.L.1    Anderson, G.A.2    Buckley, D.J.3
  • 52
    • 34250693577 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate-risk management strategies
    • Vogel C, O'Brien K. 2006. Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate-risk management strategies. Climate Change 33: 111-122.
    • (2006) Climate Change , vol.33 , pp. 111-122
    • Vogel, C.1    O'Brien, K.2
  • 53
    • 0001035522 scopus 로고
    • Potential economic value of ensemble-based surface weather forecasts
    • Wilks DS, Hamill TM. 1995. Potential economic value of ensemble-based surface weather forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 123: 3565-3575.
    • (1995) Monthly Weather Review , vol.123 , pp. 3565-3575
    • Wilks, D.S.1    Hamill, T.M.2
  • 54
    • 0000159250 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weather derivatives and weather insurance: Concept, application, and analysis
    • Zeng L. 2000. Weather derivatives and weather insurance: Concept, application, and analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81: 2057-2081.
    • (2000) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , vol.81 , pp. 2057-2081
    • Zeng, L.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.