Assessing the influence of the ENSO on tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 27, Issue 6, 2010, Pages 1361-1371

  Zhao, Haikun ^a   Wu, Liguang ^a   Zhou, Weican ^a  

^a NANJING UNIVERSITY OF INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (China)

Author keywords

ENSO; Model; Track; Trajectory; Tropical cyclone; Western North Pacific

Indexed keywords

EID: 78649482667     PISSN: 02561530     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00376-010-9161-9     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Camargo, S. J., and A. H. Sobel, 2005: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J. Climate, 18, 2996-3006.
2. Camargo, S. J., A. W. Robertson, S. J. Gaffney, P. Smyth, and M. Ghil, 2007: Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks, Part I: Large-scale circulation and ENSO. J. Climate, 20, 3654-3676.
3. Chan, J. C. L., 1984: An observational study of the physical processes responsible for tropical cyclone motion. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 1036-1048.
4. Chan, J. C. L., 1985: Tropical cyclones activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 599-606.
5. Chan, J. C. L., 1994: Prediction of the interannual variations of tropical cyclone movement over regions of the western North Pacific. International Journal of Climatology, 14, 527-538.
6. Chan, J. C. L., 2000: Tropical cyclones activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13, 2960-2972.
7. Chen, T. C., S. P. Weng, N. Yamazaki, and S. Kiehne, 1998: Interannual variation in the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1080-1090.
8. Chia, H. H., and C. F. Ropelewski, 2002: The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 2934-2944.
9. Chu, P. S., 2004: ENSO and tropical cyclone activity. Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future, R. J. Murnane and K. B. Liu, Eds., Columbia University Press, 297-332.
10. Dong, K., 1988: El Niño and tropical cyclone frequency in the Australian region and the northwest Pacific. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 36, 219-225.
11. Emanuel, K. A., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
12. Emanuel, K. A., S. Ravela, E. Vivant, and C. Risi., 2006: A Statistical-Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 299-314.
13. Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams, 2008: Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 347-367.
14. Fudeyasu, H., S. Iizuka, and T. Matsuura, 2006: Impact of ENSO on landfall characteristics of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific during the summer monsoon season. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21815, doi: 10. 1029/2006GL0277449.
15. Goddard, L., and M. Dilley., 2005: El Nino: Catastrophe or opportunity. J. Climate, 18, 651-665.
16. Gong, D., and C. Ho, 2002: Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley in the late 1970s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(10), 1436, doi: 10. 1029/2001GL014523.
17. Hall, T., and S. Jewson, 2007: Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tellus, 59 (A), 486-198.
18. Ho, C. H., J. J. Baik, J. H. Kim, D. Y. Gong, and C. H. Sui, 2004: Interdecadal changes in summertime typhoon tracks. J. Climate, 17, 1767-1776.
19. Ho, C. H., J. H. Kim, H. S. Kim, C. H. Sui, and D. Y. Gong, 2005: Possible influence of the Antarctic Oscillation on tropical cyclone activity in the western north Pacific. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D19104, doi: 10. 1029/2005JD005766.
20. Holland, G. J., 1983: Tropical cyclone motion: Environmental interaction plus a beta effect. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 328-342.
21. Hoyos, C. D., P. A. Agudelo, P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2006: Deconvolution of the Factors Contribution to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity. Science, 312(5770), 94-97.
22. James, M. K., and L. B. Mason, 2005: Synthetic tropical cyclone database. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering, 131, 181-192.
23. 2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. J. Climate, 17, 3477-3495.
24. Kossin, J. P., K. R. Knapp, D. J. Vimont, R. J. Murnane, and B. A. Harper, 2007: A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L4815, doi: 10. 1029/2006GL028836.
25. Kundzewicz, Z. W., and A. Robson, Eds., 2000: Detecting trend and other changes in hydrological data. Rep. WCDMP-45, Rep. WMO-TD No. 1013, World Meteorol. Org., Geneva, Switzerland. 157pp.
26. Lander, M. A., 1994: An exploratory analysis of the relationship between tropical storm formation in the western North Pacific and ENSO. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 636-651.
27. Li, C. Y., 1985: A study on the influence of El Niño upon typhoon action over Western Pacific. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 45(2), 229-236. (in Chinese).
28. Li, C. Y., 1986: El Niño and actions of typhoon over the South China Sea. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2(2), 117-124. (in Chinese).
29. Li, X., and B. Wang, 1996: Acceleration of hurricane beta drift by shear strain rate of environmental flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 327-334.
30. Liu, K. S., and J. C. L. Chan, 2003: Climatological characteristics and seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China Coast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1650-1662.
31. Ren, F., G. Wu, W. Dong, X. Wang, Y. Wang, W. Ai, and W. Li, 2006: Changes in tropical cyclone precipitation over China. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L20702, doi: 10. 1029/2006GL027951.
32. Saunders, M., R. Chandler, C. Merchant, and F. P. Roberts, 2000: Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1147-1150.
33. Smith, R. K., 1991: An analytic theory of tropical cyclone motion in a barotropic shear flow. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor., 117, 685-714.
34. Trenberth, K. E., 1997: The definition of El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2771-2777.
35. Trenberth, K. E., 2005: Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming. Science, 308(5729), 1753-1754.
36. Tu, J. Y., C. Chou, and P. S. Chu, 2009: The abrupt shift of typhoon activity in the vicinity of Taiwan and its association with western North Pacific-East Asian climate change. J. Climate, 22, 3617-3628.
37. Ulrich, W., and R. K. Smith, 1991: A numerical study of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropic model. II: Motion in spatially-varying large-scale flow. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 117, 107-124.
38. Wang, B., and X. Li, 1995: Propagation of a tropical cyclone in meridionally-varying zonal flows: An energetics analysis. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1421-1433.
39. Wang, B., X. Li, and L. Wu, 1997: Direction of hurricane beta drift in horizontally sheared flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1462-1471.
40. Wang, B., and J. C. Chan, 2002: How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 13, 1517-1536.
41. Webster, P. J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H. R. Chang, 2005: Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309, 1844-1846.
42. Williams, R. T., and J. C. L. Chan, 1994: Numerical studies of the beta effect in tropical cyclone motion, Part II: Zonal mean flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 1065-1076.
43. Wu, G., and N. C. Lau, 1992: A GCM simulation of the relationship between tropical storm formation and ENSO. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 958-977.
44. Wu, L., and B. Wang, 2004: Assessing impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone tracks. J. Climate, 17, 1686-1698.
45. Wu, L., and B. Wang, 2008: What has changed the proposition of intense hurricanes in the last 30 years? J. Climate, 21, 1432-1439.
46. Wu, L., B. Wang, and S. A. Braun, 2008: Implications of tropical cyclone power dissipation index. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 727-731.
47. Wu, L., B. Wang, and S. Geng, 2005: Growing typhoon influence on East Asia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18703, doi: 10. 1029/2005GL022937.
48. Wu, M. C., W. L. Chang, and W. M. Leung, 2004: Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation events on TC landfalling activity in the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 17, 1419-1428.
49. Yoo, S.-H., C.-H. Ho, S. Yang, H.-J. Choi, and J.-G. Jhun, 2004: Influence of tropical-western and extratropical Pacific sea surface temperatures on the east and Southeast Asian climate in the summers of 1993-94. J. Climate, 17, 2673-2687.
50. Zhao, H., L. Wu, and W. Zhou, 2009: Observational Relationship of Climatologic Beta Drift with Large-Scale Environmental Flows. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18809, doi: 10. 1029/2009GL040126.