Predictability of Indian summer monsoon weather during active and break phases using a high resolution regional model

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 37, Issue 21, 2010, Pages

  Taraphdar, S ^a   Mukhopadhyay, P ^a   Goswami, B N ^a  

^a INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY   (India)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS;

ACTIVE PHASIS; CONTROL SIMULATION; ERROR GROWTH; HIGH RESOLUTION; INDIAN MONSOON; INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON; INITIAL CONDITIONS; REGIONAL MODEL; TROUGH REGION; WEATHER RESEARCH FORECASTS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; ERROR ANALYSIS; ESTIMATION METHOD; NUMERICAL MODEL; PERTURBATION; REGIONAL CLIMATE; RESOLUTION; SUMMER; TROUGH; WEATHER;

INDIA;

EID: 78649248768     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044969     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Anthes, R. A., Y. H. Kuo, E. Y. Hsie, S. Low, and T. W. Bettge (1989), Estimation of skill and uncertainty in regional numerical models, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 115, 763-806, doi:10.1002/qj.49711548803.
2. Betts, A. K., and M. J. Miller (1986), A new convective adjustment scheme. Part II: Single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, and arctic air mass data sets, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 112, 693-709.
3. De, S., and D. R. Chakraborty (2004), Tropical systematic and random error energetics based on NCEP (MRF) analysisforecast system A barotropic approach, Part I: In physical domain, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 113, 151-166. (Pubitemid 38884220)
4. Dudhia, J. (1989), Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model, J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3077-3107, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1989)0462.0.CO;2.
5. Goswami, B. N. (2005), South Asian monsoon, in Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System, edited by W. K. M. Lau and D. E. Waliser, chap. 2, pp. 19-61, Springer, Berlin.
6. Goswami, B. N., R. S. Ajayamohan, P. K. Xavier, and D. Sengupta (2003), Clustering of synoptic activity by Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(8), 1431, doi:10.1029/2002GL016734.
7. Hohenegger, C., and C. Schar (2007), Predictability and error growth dynamics in a cloud resolving models, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 4467-4478, doi:10.1175/2007JAS2143.1.
8. Hohenegger, C., D. Lüthi, and C. Schär (2006), Predictability mysteries in cloud resolving models, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 2095-2107, doi:10.1175/MWR3176.1. (Pubitemid 44275526)
9. Janjic, Z. I. (1994), The stepmountain eta coordinate model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 927-945, doi:10.1175/1520-0493 (1994)1222.0.CO;2.
10. Kalnay, E., et al. (1996), The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437-471, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996) 0772.0.CO;2.
11. Krishnamurty, V., and R. S. Ajaymohan (2010), Composite structure of monsoon low pressure systems and its relation to Indian rainfall, J. Clim., 23, 4285-4305, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI2953.1.
12. Krishnan, R., and S. Sundaram (2005), On the dynamical extended range predictability of active/break spells of the Indian summer monsoon: Sensitivity to atmospheric initial conditions, Int. J. Ecol. and Dev., 3(S05), 1-26.
13. Lin, Y.-L., R. D. Farley, and H. D. Orville (1983), Bulk parameterization of the snow field in a cloud model, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 22, 1065-1092, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1983)0222.0.CO;2.
14. Mlawer, E. J., S. J. Taubman, P. D. Brown, M. J. Iacono, and S. A. Clough (1997), Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the long-wave, J. Geophys. Res., 102(D14), 16,663-16,682, doi:10.1029/97JD00237.
15. Monin, A. S., and A. M. Obukhov (1954), Basic laws of turbulent mixing in the surface layer of the atmosphere (in Russian), Contrib. Geophys. Inst. Acad. Sci. USSR, 151, 163-187.
16. Mooley, D. A., and J. Shukla (1989), Main features of the westward moving low pressure systems which form over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season and their relation to the monsoon rainfall, Mausam, 40, 137-152.
17. Mukhopadhyay, P., S. Taraphdar, B. N. Goswami, and K. Krishna Kumar (2010), Indian summer monsoon precipitation climatology in a high resolution regional climate model: Impact of convective parameterization on systematic biases, Weather Forecast., 25, 369-387, doi:10.1175/ 2009WAF2222320.1.
18. Murakami, T., L. X. Chen, and A. Xie (1986), Relationship among seasonal cycles, lowfrequency oscillations, and transient disturbances as revealed from outgoing long wave radiation data, Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 1456-1465, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1986)1142.0.CO;2.
19. Thiebaux, J., E. Rogers, W. Wang, and B. Katz (2003), A new high resolution blended real time global sea surface temperature analysis, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 645-656, doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-5-645.
20. Waliser, D. E., W. F. Stern, S. D. Schubert, and K. M. Lau (2003), Dynamic predictability of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 2897-2925, doi:10.1256/qj.02.51.
21. Walser, A., and C. Schär (2004), Convection resolving precipitation forecasting and its predictability in Alpine river catchments, J. Hydrol., 288, 57-73, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.11.035. (Pubitemid 39403843)
22. Yasunari, T. (1981), Structure of an Indian summer monsoon system with around 40 day period, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 59, 336-354.