Recruitment forecast models for walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma fine-tuned from juvenile survey data, predator abundance and environmental phase shifts

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Volumn 417, Issue , 2010, Pages 237-248

  Zhang, Tianyang ^a   Bailey, Kevin M ^b   Chan, Kung Sik ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA   (United States)

^b ALASKA FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

Ecological community; Environment; Fish recruitment; Fisheries; Forecast; Ocean research; Population dynamics; Regime shift

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; COMMUNITY STRUCTURE; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT; FISHERY OCEANOGRAPHY; FISHERY SURVEY; FLATFISH; GADOID; JUVENILE; LARVA; MARINE ENVIRONMENT; PREDATOR; RECRUITMENT (POPULATION DYNAMICS); SURVIVAL;

GULF OF ALASKA; PACIFIC OCEAN;

PISCES; PLEURONECTOIDEI; POLLACHIUS; REINHARDTIUS STOMIAS; THERAGRA CHALCOGRAMMA;

EID: 78149437886     PISSN: 01718630     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/meps08817     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Anderson P, Piatt JF (1999) Community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska following ocean climate regime shift. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 189: 117-123
2. Axenrot T, Hansson S (2003) Predicting herring recruitment from young-of-the-year densities, spawning stock bio-mass, and climate. Limnol Oceanogr 48: 1716-1720
3. Bailey KM (2000) Shifting control of recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) after a major climate and ecosystem change. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 198: 215-224
4. Bailey KM, Ciannelli L, Agostini V (2003) Complexity and constraints combined in simple models of recruitment. In: Browman HI, Skiftesvik AB (eds) The big fish bang. Proc 26th Annu Larval Fish Conf. Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway, p 293-301. Also available at: www.fish-larvae.com/e/ BigBang/Bailey.pdf
5. Bailey KM, Ciannelli L, Bond N, Belgrano A, Stenseth NC (2005) Recruitment of walleye pollock in a complex physical and biological ecosystem. Prog Oceanogr 67: 24-42
6. Bjørnstad ON, Fromentin JM, Stenseth NC, Gjøsaetter J (1999) Cycles and trends in cod populations. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 96: 5066-5071
7. Bradford MJ (1992) Precision of recruitment predictions from early life stages of marine fishes. Fish Bull 90: 439-453
8. Brodeur RD, Frost BW, Hare SR, Francis RC, Ingraham WJ (1996) Interannual variations in zooplankton biomass in the Gulf of Alaska, and covariation with California Current zooplankton biomass. CCOFI Rep 37: 80-98
9. Ciannelli L, Bailey KM, Stenseth NC, Chan KS, Belgrano A (2005) Climate change causing phase transition of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) recruitment dynamics. Proc Biol Sci 272: 1735-1743
10. Cryer DJ, Chan KS (2008) Time series analysis with applications in R. Springer Verlag, New York
11. Dorn M, Aydin K, Barbeaux S, Guttormsen M, Megrey B, Spalinger K, Wilkins M (2006) Stock assessment and fishery evaluation report: assessment of walleye pollock in the Gulf of Alaska. North Pacific Fishery Management Council,Anchorage, AK. Also available at: www.afsc.noaa.gov/refm/docs/2006/ GOApollock.pdf
12. Dorn M, Aydin K, Barbeaux S, Guttormsen M, Megrey B, Spalinger K, Wilkins M (2009) Stock assessment and fishery evaluation report: Gulf of Alaska walleye pollock. North Pacific Fishery Management Council, Anchorage, AK. Also available at: www.afsc.noaa.gov/REFM/docs/2009/GOApollock.pdf
13. Dwyer DA, Bailey KM, Livingston PA (1987) Feeding habits and daily ration of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea, with special reference to cannibalism. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 44: 1972-1984
14. Frank KT, Petrie B, Choi JS, Leggett WC (2005) Trophic cascades in a formerly cod-dominated ecosystem. Science 308: 1621-1623
15. Hare SR, Mantua NJ (2000) Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Prog Oceanogr 47: 103 -145
16. Helle K, Bogstad B, Marshall TT, Michalsen K, Ottersen G, Pennington M (2000) An evaluation of recruitment indices for Arcto-Norwegian cod (Gadus morhua L.). Fish Res 48: 55-67
17. Hjort J (1914) Fluctuations in the great fisheries of northern Europe, viewed in the light of biological research. Rapp P-V Reun Conseil Int Explor Mer 20: 1-228
18. Hollowed AB, Hare SR, Wooster WS (2001) Pacific basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production. Prog Oceanogr 49: 257-282
19. Houde ED (2008) Emerging from Hjort's shadow. J Northwest Atl Fish Sci 41: 53-70
20. Hunt GL Jr, Stabeno P, Walters G, Sinclair E, Brodeur RD, Napp JM, Bond NA (2002) Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem. Deep-Sea Res II 49: 5821-5854
21. Kendall BE, Briggs CJ, Murdoch WW, Turchin P and others (1999) Why do populations cycle? A synthesis of statistical and mechanistic modeling approaches. Ecology 80: 1789-1805
22. Knoth BA, Foy RJ (2008) Temporal variability in the food habits of arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) in the western Gulf of Alaska. NOAA Tech Memo NMFS-AFSC-184
23. Lee YW, Megrey BA, Mackin SA (2009) Evaluating the performance of Gulf of Alaska walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) recruitment forecasting models using a Monte Carlo resampling strategy. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 66: 367-381
24. Lin X, Zhang D (1999) Inference in generalized additive mixed models using smoothing splines. J R Stat Soc B 61: 381-400
25. Litzow MA, Ciannelli L (2007) Oscillating trophic control induces community reorganization in a marine ecosystem. Ecol Lett 10: 1124-1134
26. McKelvey DR (1996) Juvenile pollock distribution and abundance in Shelikof Strait. What can we learn from acoustic survey results? NOAA Tech Rep 126: 25-34
27. Meekan MG, Milicich MJ, Doherty PJ (1993) Larval production drives temporal patterns of larval supply and recruitment of a coral reef damselfish. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 93: 217-225
28. Mukhina NV, Marshall CT, Yaragina NA (2003) Tracking the signal in year-class strength of northeast Arctic cod through multiple survey estimates of egg, larval and juvenile abundance. J Sea Res 50: 57-75
29. NOAA (2008) NOAA 200th visions: ocean research. Available at: celebrating200years.noaa.gov/visions/ocean-research/welcome.html
30. NPFMC (North Pacific Fishery Management Council) (2009) Stock assessment and fishery evaluation report for the groundfish resources of the Gulf of Alaska. North Pacific Fishery Management Council, Anchorage, AK. Also available at: www.afsc.noaa.gov/REFM/Docs/2009/GOASafe. pdf
31. Ravier C, Fromentin JM (2001) Long-term fluctuations in the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna population. ICES J Mar Sci 58: 1299-1317
32. Shida O, Hamatsu T, Nishimura A, Suzaki A, Yamamoto J, Miyashita K, Sakurai Y (2007) Interannual fluctuations in recruitment of walleye pollock in the Oyashio region related to environmental changes. Deep-Sea Res II 54: 2822-2831
33. Shima M, Hollowed AB, VanBlaricom GR (2002) Changes over time in the sptial distribution of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the Gulf of Alaska, 1984-1996. Fish Bull 100: 307-323
34. Shiomoto A, Tadokoro K, Nagasawa K, Ishida Y (1997) Trophic relations in the subarctic North Pacific ecosystem: possible feeding effect from pink salmon. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 150: 75-85
35. Southward AJ, Boalch GT, Maddock L (1988) Fluctuations in the herring and pilchard fisheries of Devon and Cornwall linked to change in climate since the 16th century. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 68: 423-445
36. Speckman SG, Piatt JF, Minte-Vera CV, Parrish JK (2005) Parallel structure among environmental gradients and three trophic levels in a subarctic estuary. Prog Oceanogr 66: 25-65
37. Spencer PD (2008) Density-independent and density-dependent factors affecting temporal changes in spatial distributions of eastern Bering Sea flatfish. Fish Oceanogr 17: 396-410
38. Stenseth NC, Viljugrein H, Saitoh T, Hansen TF, Kittilsen MO, Bolviken E, Glockner F (2003) Seasonality, density dependence, and population cycles in Hokkaido voles. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100: 11478-11483
39. Svendsen E, Skogen M, Budgell P, Huse G and others (2007) An ecosystem modeling approach to predicting cod recruitment. Deep-Sea Res II 54: 2810-2821
40. Turnock BJ, Wilderbuer TK (2007) Stock assessment and fishery evaluation report: Gulf of Alaska arrowtooth flounder stock assessment. North Pacific Fishery Management Council, Anchorage, AK. Also available at: www.afsc. noaa.gov/refm/docs/2007/GOAatf.pdf
41. van der Veer HW (1986) Immigration, settlement, and density-dependent mortality of a larval and early postlarval 0-group plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) population in the western Wadden Sea. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 29: 223-236
42. Walters CJ, Collie JS (1988) Is research on environmental factors useful to fisheries management? Can J Fish Aquat Sci 45: 1848-1854
43. Wilson MT (2009) Ecology of small neritic fishes in the western Gulf of Alaska. I. Geographic distribution in relation to prey density and the physical environment. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 392: 223-237
44. Wood SN (2006). Generalized additive models: an introduction with R. Chapman & Hall/CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL
45. Yamamura O, Yabuki K, Shida O, Watanabe K, Honda S (2001) Spring cannibalism on 1 year walleye pollock in the Doto area, northern Japan: Is it density dependent? J Fish Biol 59: 645-656
46. Yang M (1993) Food habits of the commercially important groundfishes in the Gulf of Alaska in 1990. NOAA Tech Memo NMFS-AFSC-22: 1-150
47. Yang MS, Dodd K, Hibpshman R, Whitehouse A (2006) Food habits of groundfishes in the Gulf of Alaska in 1999 and 2001. NOAA Tech Memo NMFS-AFSC-164: 1-199