Predicting the unpredictable: Dealing with risk and uncertainty in broadband roll-out

foresight

Volumn 12, Issue 6, 2010, Pages 3-19

  Fijnvandraat, Marieke ^a   Bouwman, Harry ^b  

^a KPN RESEARCH   (Netherlands)

^b DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Broadband networks; Risk management; Uncertainty management

Indexed keywords

EID: 78049467744     PISSN: 14636689     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1108/14636681011089952     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Acimovic-Raspopovic, V., Kostic-Ljubisavljevic, A. and Radojicic, V. (2003), “Dynamic routing design under forecast uncertainty”, Proceedings of TELSIKS '03: the 6th International Conference on Telecommunications in Modern Satellite, Cable and Broadcasting Service, Vol. 1, pp. 30-3.
2. Barney, J.R. (1991), “Firm resources and structural competitive advantage”, Journal of Management, Vol. 17, pp. 99-120.
3. Berdica, K. (2002), “An introduction to road vulnerability: what has been done, is done and should be done”, Transport Policy, Vol. 9 No. 2, pp. 117-27.
4. Bouwman, H. and Van der Duin, P. (2003), “Technological forecasting and scenario matter: research into the use of information and communication technology in the home environment in 2010”, foresight, Vol. 5 No. 4, pp. 8-19.
5. Bouwman, H., Haaker, T. and De Vos, H. (2008), Mobile Service Innovation and Business Models, Springer, Heidelberg.
6. Cashman, A. and Ashley, R. (2008), “Closing the long-term demand for water sector infrastructure”, foresight, Vol. 10 No. 3, pp. 9-26.
7. Courtney, H., Krikland, J. and Viguerie, P. (1997), “Strategy under uncertainty”, Harvard Business Review, Vol. 75 No. 6, pp. 66-80.
8. Dalgleish, F. and Cooper, B.J. (2005), “Risk management: developing a framework for a water authority”, Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, Vol. 16 No. 3, pp. 235-49.
9. European Commission (2002), “eEurope 2005, an information society for all”, action plan presented to Sevilla European Council, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/information_society/eeurope/2002/news_library/documents/eeurope2005/eeurope2005_en.pdf.
10. European Commission (2004), “eEurope 2005 mid-term review, 18-02-2004”, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/information_society/eeurope/2005/doc/all_about/acte_en_version_finale.pdf (accessed May 26, 2008).
11. European Commission (2008), “Preparing Europe's digital future”, i2010 Mid-Term review, COM(2008) 199, SEC(2008) 470, Volumes 1, 2, 3, April, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/information_society/eeurope/i2010/docs/annual_report/2008/i2010_ar_2008_en.pdf (accessed May 26, 2008).
12. Expert Group Broadband (2002), “Nederland Breedbandland, recommendations to the cabinet from the national expert group”, available at: www.expertgroepbreedband.nl/documenten/NL_Breedbandland_english_version.pdf (accessed May 20, 2008).
13. Fijnvandraat, M.L. and Bouwman, H. (2006), “Flexibility and broadband evolution”, Telecommunication Policy, Vol. 30 Nos 8/9.
14. Fontana, G. and Gerrard, B. (2004), “A post-Keynesian theory of decision-making under uncertainty”, Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 25 No. 5, pp. 619-37.
15. Hallikas, J., Puumalainen, K., Vesterinen, T. and Virolainen, V.-M. (2005), “Risk-based classification of supplier relationships”, Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, Vol. 11 Nos 2/3, pp. 72-82.
16. Harland, C., Brencheley, H. and Walker, H. (2003), “Risk in supply network”, Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, Vol. 9 No. 2, pp. 51-62.
17. Impulscommissie Breedband (2004), “Naar een nationale strategie voor breedband, Advies van de impulscommissie breedband”, available at: ww.ivir.nl/dossier/breedband/naareennationalestrategievoorbreedband.pdf (accessed May 22, 2008).
18. Johnson, G. and Scholes, K. (2002), Exploring Corporate Strategy: Text and Cases, 6th ed., Prentice-Hall/Financial Times, Harlow.
19. Kobus, D., Proctor, S. and Holste, S. (2001), “Effects of experience and uncertainty during dynamic decision making”, International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, Vol. 28 No. 5, pp. 275-90.
20. Koivisto, R., Wessbeerg, N., Eerola, A., Ahlqvist, T., Kivisaari, S., Myllyoja, J. and Halonen, M. (2009), “Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment management”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 76, pp. 1163-76.
21. March, J.G. and Shapira, Z. (1987), “Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking”, Management Science, Vol. 33 No. 11, pp. 1404-18.
22. Marcus, A.A. (1981), “Policy uncertainty and technological innovation”, The Academy of Management Review, Vol. 6 No. 3, pp. 443-8.
23. Meijer, I.S.M., Hekkert, M.P., Faber, J. and Smits, R.E.H.M. (2006), “Perceived uncertainties regarding socio-technological transformations: towards a framework”, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, Vol. 2 No. 2, pp. 214-40.
24. Miller, K.D. and Waller, H.G. (2003), “Scenarios, real options and integrated risk management”, Long Range Planning, Vol. 36 No. 1, pp. 93-107.
25. Milliken, F. (1987), “Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment: state, effect, and response uncertainty”, The Academy of Management Review, Vol. 12 No. 1, pp. 133-43.
26. Piyatrapoomi, N., Kumar, A. and Setunge, S. (2004), “Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management”, Research in Transportation Economics, Vol. 8, pp. 199-214.
27. Pomerol, J.-C. (2001), “Scenario development and practical decision-making under uncertainty”, Decision Support Systems, Vol. 31 No. 2, pp. 197-204.
28. Porter, M.E. (1980), Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors, Free Press, New York, NY.
29. Pratt, J.W. (1964), “Risk aversion in the small and in the large”, Econometrica, Vol. 32 Nos 1/2, pp. 122-36.
30. Renkema, T.J.W. (2000), The IT Value Quest, How to Capture the Business Value of IT-based Infrastructure, Wiley, Chichester.
31. Richardson, J. (2009), “Uncertainty, the critical basis of risk management”, foresight, Vol. 11 No. 6, pp. 42-55.
32. Rotmans, J., Kemp, R. and Van Asselt, M. (2001), “More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy”, foresight, Vol. 3 No. 1, pp. 15-31.
33. Technology Future Analysis Methods Working Group (2004), “Technology future analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 71, pp. 287-303.
34. Vermaas, K. (2007), “Fast diffusion and broadening use”, doctoral dissertation, University of Utrecht, Utrecht.
35. Walker, W.E. and Marchau, V.A.W.J. (2003), “Dealing with uncertainty in policy analysis and policymaking”, Integrated Assessment, Vol. 4 No. 1, pp. 1-4.
36. Walker, W.E., Harremoes, P., Rotmans, J., van der Sluijs, J.P., van Asselt, M.B.A., Janssen, P. and Krayer von Krauss, M.P. (2003), “Defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support”, Integrated Assessment, Vol. 4 No. 1, pp. 5-17.
37. Wernerfelt, B. and Karnani, A. (1987), “Competitive strategy under uncertainty”, Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 8 No. 2, pp. 161-77.
38. Yager, R.R. (2004a), “On the determination of strength of belief for decision support under uncertainty. Part I: Generating strengths of belief”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 142 No. 1, pp. 117-28.
39. Yager, R.R. (2004b), “On the determination of strength of belief for decision support under uncertainty. Part II: Fusing strengths of belief”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 142 No. 1, pp. 129-42.
40. Yoon, S.-H., Yoon, M.-G. and Lee, J. (2005), “On selecting a technology evolution path for broadband access networks”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 72, pp. 449-70.
41. Bouwman, H. and Fijnvandraat, M. (2007), “Exploring the rationale behind broadband roll-out – a quantitative analysis”, Proceedings of ITS Europe 2007: The 18th Regional Conference of the International Telecom Society, Istanbul, Turkey.
42. Bouwman, H., Fijnvandraat, M. and van de Wijngaert, L. (2006), “White spots and black holes: developing a conceptual model for Broadband roll-out”, info, Vol. 8 No. 1, pp. 72-90.
43. Fijnvandraat, M.L. (2009), “Shedding light on the black hole, the roll-out of broadband access networks by private operators”, doctoral dissertation, Delft University of Technology, Delft.