Long-term slip history discriminates among occurrence models for seismic hazard assessment

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 37, Issue 20, 2010, Pages

  Fitzenz, D D ^a   Ferry, M A ^a   Jalobeanu, A ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ÉVORA   (Portugal)

^b CNRS   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKES; HAZARDS; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT;

BAYESIAN; CUMULATIVE PROBABILITIES; DEAD SEA; EXTRACTING INFORMATION; INDEPENDENT MODEL; NEW APPROACHES; OCCURRENCE MODEL; OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY; PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT; RECURRENCE ANALYSIS; RUPTURE MODELS; SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT; SPATIAL RESOLUTION;

STOCHASTIC MODELS;

EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; PALEOSEISMICITY; PROBABILITY; SEISMIC HAZARD; SLIP RATE; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; STOCHASTICITY;

EID: 78049345610     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044071     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Ambraseys, N. (2009), Earthquakes in the Mediterranean and Middle East, A multidisciplinary Study of Seismicity up to 1900, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
2. Ang, A. H.-S., and W. Tang (1975), Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, vol. 1, Basic Principles, John Wiley, New York.
3. Biasi, G., and R. J. Weldon II (2009), San Andreas fault rupture scenarios from multiple paleoseismic records: Stringing pearls, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 99, 471-498.
4. Ellsworth, W. L., M. Matthews, R. M. Nadeau, S. P. Nishenko, P. A. Reasenberg, and R. W. Simpson (1999), A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open File Rep. 99-522.
5. Ferry, M., M. Meghraoui, N. Karaki, M. Al-Taj, H. Amoush, S. Al-Dhaisat, and M. Barjous (2007), A 48-kyr-long slip rate history for the Jordan Valley segment of the Dead Sea fault, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 260, 394-406.
6. Fitzenz, D. D., A. Jalobeanu, and S. H. Hickman (2007), Integrating laboratory creep compaction data with numerical fault models: A Bayesian framework, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B08410, doi:10.1029/2006JB004792. (Pubitemid 47578280)
7. Franken, H. J. (1992), Excavations at Tell Deir Alla: The Late Bronze Age Sanctuary, Peeters, Louvain, Belgium.
8. Ludwig, L. G., S. Akciz, G. Noriega, O. Zielke, and J. Arrowsmith (2010), Climate-modulated channel incision and rupture history of the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain, Science, 327, 1117-1119.
9. MacKay, D. J. C. (2003), Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
10. Matthews, M., W. L. Ellsworth, and P. A. Reasenberg (2002), A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92(6), 2233-2250.
11. Ogata, Y. (1999), Estimating the hazard of rupture using uncertain occurrence times of paleoearthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 17,995-18,014.
12. Parsons, T. (2008), Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California, J. Geophys. Res., 113, B03302, doi:10.1029/ 2007JB004998.
13. Reid, H. (1910), The Mechanics of the Earthquake, vol. 2 The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906, Carnegie Inst. Washington Publ., 87.
14. Rhoades, D. A., and R. J. V. Dissen (2003), Estimates of the time-varying hazard of rupture of the Alpine Fault, New Zealand, allowing for uncertainties, N. Z. J. Geol. Geophys., 46, 479-488.
15. Rockwell, T. K., and Y. Ben-Zion (2007), High localization of primary slip zones in large earthquakes from paleoseismic trenches: Observations and implications for earthquake physics, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B10304, doi:10.1029/2006JB004764. (Pubitemid 350286436)
16. Savage, S., K. Zamora, and D. Keller (2003), Archaeology in Jordan, 2002 season, Am. J. Archaeol., 107, 449-475.
17. Scharer, K. M., G. Biasi, R. J. Weldon II, and T. E. Fumal (2010), Quasi-periodic recurrence of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, Geology, 38, 555-558, doi:10.1130/G30746.1.
18. Wells, D., and K. J. Coppersmith (1994), New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 974-1002.
19. Wesnousky, S. (2006), Predicting the endpoints of earthquake ruptures, Nature, 444, 358-360.
20. Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003), Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region: 2002-2031, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open File Rep., 03-214.
21. Yücemen, M., N. Öztürk, A. Deniz, and S. Muaz (2005), Assessment of seismic hazard for Jordan, paper preseented at The International Earthquake Engineering Conference, U. N., Skopje, Macedonia.
22. Zielke, O., J. Arrowsmith, L. Ludwig, and S. Akciz (2010), Slip in the 1857 and earlier large earthquakes along the Carrizo plain, San Andreas fault, Science, 327, 1119-1122.