Uncertainties in future climate attributable to uncertainties in future Northern Annular Mode trend

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 37, Issue 20, 2010, Pages

  Karpechko, Alexey Yu ^a  

^a FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Finland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY; FORECASTING; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GASES;

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION VARIABILITY; CLIMATE PROJECTION; EURASIA; FUTURE CLIMATE; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; NORTHERN ANNULAR MODE; NORTHERN HEMISPHERES; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SURFACE TEMPERATURES;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; FUTURE PROSPECT; GREENHOUSE GAS; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); REGIONAL CLIMATE; SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

EURASIA; NORTH AMERICA;

EID: 78049326560     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044717     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Boé, J., A. Hall, and X. Qu (2009), Deep ocean heat uptake as a major source of spread in transient climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L22701, doi:10.1029/2009GL040845.
2. Chapman, W. L., and J. E. Walsh (2007), Simulations of Arctic temperature and pressure by global coupled models, J. Clim., 20, 609-632, doi:10.1175/JCLI4026.1. (Pubitemid 46332530)
3. Dufresne, J.-L., and S. Bony (2008), An assessment of the primary sources of spread of global warming estimates from coupled atmosphere-ocean models, J. Clim., 21, 5135-5144, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2239.1.
4. Fyfe, J. C., G. J. Boer, and G. Flato (1999), The Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and their projected changes under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1601-1604, doi:10.1029/1999GL900317. (Pubitemid 30134969)
5. Gerber, E. P., et al. (2010), Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and annular mode variability in chemistry-climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M06, doi:10.1029/2009JD013770.
6. Gillett, N. P., M. R. Allen, and K. D. Williams (2003), Modelling the atmospheric response to doubled CO2 and depleted stratospheric ozone using a stratosphere-resolving coupled GCM, Q.J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 947-966, doi:10.1256/qj.02.102. (Pubitemid 36440241)
7. Gillett, N. P., T. D. Kell, and P. D. Jones (2006), Regional climate impacts of the Southern Annular Mode, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23704, doi:10.1029/2006GL027721. (Pubitemid 47407894)
8. Hurrell, J. W. (1995), Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation region temperatures and precipitation, Science, 269, 676-679, doi:10.1126/science.269.5224.676.
9. Kidston, J., and E. P. Gerber (2010), Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatology, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L09708, doi:10.1029/2010GL042873.
10. Meehl, G. A., et al. (2007), Global climate projections, in Climate Change 2007: The Scientific Basis, edited by S. Solomon et al., pp. 747-846, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
11. Miller, R. L., G. A. Schmidt, and D. T. Shindell (2006), Forced annular variations in the 20th century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report models, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D18101, doi:10.1029/ 2005JD006323.
12. Paeth, H., and F. Pollinger (2010), Enhanced evidence in climate models for changes in extratropical atmospheric circulation, Tellus, Ser. A, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00455.x, in press.
13. Ring, M. J., and R. A. Plumb (2008), The response of a simplified GCM to axisymmetric forcings: Applicability of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, J. Atmos. Sci., 65(12), 3880-3898, doi:10.1175/2008JAS2773.1.
14. Shindell, D. T., R. L. Miller, G. A. Schmidt, and L. Pandolfo (1999), Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing, Nature, 399, 452-455, doi:10.1038/20905. (Pubitemid 29258847)
15. Sigmond, M., and J. F. Scinocca (2010), The influence of the basic state on the Northern Hemisphere circulation response to climate change, J. Clim., 23, 1434-1446, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3167.1.
16. Sigmond, M., J. F. Scinocca, and P. J. Kushner (2008), Impact of the stratosphere on tropospheric climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12706, doi:10.1029/2008GL033573.
17. Soden, B. J., and I. M. Held (2006), An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean atmosphere models, J. Clim., 19, 3354-3360, doi:10.1175/JCLI3799.1. (Pubitemid 44177899)
18. Stephenson, D. B., V. Pavan, M. Collins, M. M. Junge, and R. Quadrelli (2006), North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: A CMIP2 multi-model assessment, Clim. Dyn., 27, 401-420, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0140-x. (Pubitemid 43997758)
19. Stott, P. A., J. A. Kettleborough, and M. R. Allen (2006), Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L02708, doi:10.1029/2005GL024423. (Pubitemid 43337027)
20. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace (2000), Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability, J. Clim., 13, 1000-1016, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)0132.0. CO;2.
21. Volodin, E. M., and V. Y. Galin (1999), Interpretation of winter warming of Northern Hemisphere continents in 1977-94, J. Clim., 12(10), 2947-2955, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)0122.0.CO;2.
22. von Storch, H., and F. W. Zwiers (1999), Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, 494 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.