Evaluating the use of an integrated approach to support energy and climate policy formulation and evaluation

Energies

Volumn 3, Issue 9, 2010, Pages 1604-1621

  Bassi, Andrea M ^a  

^a Millennium Institute   (United States)

Author keywords

Energy policy; Integrated modeling; T21

Indexed keywords

CARBON; ECONOMICS; ENERGY POLICY;

AVAILABLE ENERGY; ENVIRONMENTAL PRESERVATION; GEOGRAPHICAL AREA; INTEGRATED APPROACH; INTEGRATED MODELING; POLICY FORMULATION; SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL; SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 77958158884     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19961073     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3390/en3091604     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. International Energy Agency IEA. World Energy Outlook 2009; OECD/IEA: Paris, France, 2009.
2. International Energy Agency IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2008; OECD/IEA: Paris, France, 2008.
3. Bassi, A.M. An Integrated Approach to Support Energy Policy Formulation and Evaluation. PhD Dissertation, Department of Geography, University of Bergen: Bergen, Norway, 2009.
4. The factors discussed in this paper are often referred to with the acronym PESTE (political, economic, social, technologic and environmental). For simplicity, in this paper, the focus is put on society, economy and environment, as they embed also political and technological factors. While policies are modeled and simulated, the political environment is not; and technology development and adoption are also modeled.
5. Bassi, A.M.; Schoenberg, W.; Powers, R. An Integrated Approach to Energy Prospects for North America and the Rest of the World. Energy Economics 2009, 32, 30-42.
6. Bassi, A.M. A Context-Inclusive Approach to Support Energy Policy Formulation and Evaluation. Regional Environ. Change 2010, in press.
7. Sterman, J.D. A Skeptic's Guide to Computer Models. In Managing a Nation: The Microcomputer Software Catalog; Barney, G.O., Kreutzer, W.B., Garrett, M.J., Eds.; Westview Press: Boulder, CO, USA, 1998; pp. 209-229.
8. Sterman, J.D. Business Dynamics: System Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World; McGraw-Hill: New York, NY, USA, 2000.
9. Bassi, A.M.; Baer, A.E. Quantifying Cross-Sectoral Impacts of Investments in Climate Change Mitigation in Ecuador. Energy Sustainable Dev. 2009, 13, 116-123.
10. Bassi, A.M.; Shilling, J.D. Informing the US Energy Policy Debate with Threshold 21. Technol. Forecasting Social Change 2010, 77, 396-410.
11. Cimren, E.; Bassi, A.M.; Fiksel, J. T21-Ohio System Dynamics Model: Informing Waste to Profit Decisions. Sustainability 2010, in press.
12. Karas, T.H. Modelers and Policymakers: Improving the Relationship; Sandia National Laboratories: Albuquerque, NM, USA, 2004.
13. Roberts, N.; Andersen, D.; Roberts, N.; Deal, R.; Garet, M.; Shaffer, W.D. Introduction to Computer Simulation; Addison-Wesley: Reading, PA, USA, 1983; p. 16.
14. Bradsher, K. Fuel Subsidies for Some Make Oil More Expensive for All; The International Herald Tribune: Jakarta, Indonesia, 2008.
15. Forrester, J.W. Industrial Dynamics; Productive Press: Portland, OR, USA, 1961.
16. Jevons, W.S. The Coal Question; Macmillan: London, UK, 1865
17. Dimitropoulos, J. Energy Productivity Improvements and the Rebound Effect: An Overview of the State of Knowledge. Energy Policy 2007, 35, 6354-6363.
18. Musters, A.P.A. The Energy-Economy-Environment Interaction and the Rebound-Effect; Netherlands Energy Research Foundation: Petten, The Netheriands, 1995. Available online: http://www.ecn.nl/docs/library/report/1994/i94053.pdf (accessed on 2 June 2010).
19. Forrester, J.W. Road Maps: A Guide to Learning System Dynamics; MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, USA, 2002.
20. Forrester, J.W. System Dynamics: The Next Fifty Years. Sys. Dyn. Rev. 2007, DOI: 10.1002/sdr.381.
21. Hirsch, R.L.; Bezdek, R.; Wendling, R. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management. Available online: http://www.energybulletin.net/node/4638 (accessed on 2 June 2010).
22. Meadows, D. The Unavoidable A Priori. In Elements of the System Dynamics Method; Randers, J., Ed.; MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, USA, 1980; pp. 23-57.
23. Stern, N.H. Great Britain Treasury. In The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, MA, USA, 2007.
24. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA (2001). Model MESSAGE, Command Line User Manual, Version 0.18; Available online: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ ECS/docs/MESSAGE_man018.pdf (accessed on 6 March 2010).
25. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA. Achieving a Sustainable Energy System; Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, UK, 2002.
26. Fishbone, L.G.; Giesen, G.; Goldstein, G.; Hymmen, H.A.; Stocks, K.J.; Vos, H.; Wilde, D.; Zöcher, R.; Balzer, C.; Abilock. H. User's Guide for MARKAL: A Multi-period, Linear Programming Model for Energy Systems Analysis; BNL: Upton, NY, USA, 1983.
27. Loulou, R.; Goldstein, G.; Noble, K. Documentation for the MARKAL Family of Models. Available online: http://www.etsap.org/MrklDoc-I_StdMARKAL.pdf (accessed on 8 March 2010).
28. DeGeus, A.P. Modelling to Predict or to Learn? Eur. J. Operational Res. 1992, 59, 1-5.
29. Morecroft, J.D.W. Executive Knowledge, Models and Learning. Eur. J. Operational Res. 1992, 59, 70-74.
30. Barlas, Y. Formal Aspects of Model Validity and Validation in System Dynamics. Sys. Dyn. Rev. 1996, 12, 183-210.
31. International Energy Agency IEA. Annex C: World Energy Model. In World Energy Outlook 2004; OECD/IEA: Paris, France. Available online: http://www.iea.org/weo/2004.asp (accessed on April 5, 2010).
32. 3M Lab: Athens, Greece, 2006. Available online: www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/manuals/Manual_of_GEM-E3.pdf asp (accessed May 10, 2010).
33. Centre National de Recherche Scientifique CNRS Grenoble. The POLES Model: POLES State of the Art. Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale, LEPII-EPE: Grenoble, France, 2006. Available online: http://web.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepiiepe/textes/POLES12p_Jan06.pdf (accessed May 10, 2010).
34. National Technical University of Athens NTUA. The PRIMES Energy System Model: Summary Description; National Technical University of Athens: Athens, Greece, 2010. Available online: http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/manuals/PRIMsd.pdf (accessed on 10 September 2010).
35. Fiddaman, T.S. Behavioral Modeling for Science and Energy Policy. Presented at The Stanford Energy Modeling Forum EMF, Stanford, CA, USA, 2007.
36. Drud, A.; Grais, W.; Pyatt, G. Macroeconomic Modeling Based on Social Accounting Principles. J. Policy Model. 1986, 8, 111-145.
37. This study presents simulation models and focuses on System Dynamics. Agent Based Modeling (ABM), also a simulation technique, is an emerging methodology being more and more often applied to social science and resource management problems. Applications of SD and ABM are often fundamentally different in scope. Modelers using ABM aim -primarily- at investigating the relationship between agents and behavior (and very often use a bottom up approach); in our study instead -to analyze a national context, and given the nature of the policies analyzed- we adopt a top down approach. Also, ABM generates emergent results, which by definition does not allow for a full understanding of the causes driving it. This, in turn, is a strength of SD, which is fully transparent. More information on the comparison of SD and ABM is available in Bassi and Lorenz [38].
38. Bassi, A.M.; Lorenz, T. Comprehensibility as a Discrimination Criterion for Agent-Based Modeling and System Dynamics: An Empirical Approach. In Proceedings of the 23rd International System Dynamics Conference, 17 July-21 July 2005, Boston, MA, USA.
39. Bassi, A.M. Systems Modeling of Long Term Energy Policy, Mauritius. Millennium Institute, Arlington, VA, USA, 2009. Prepared for the Ministry of Renewable Energy and Public Utilities, Republic of Mauritius, and UNDP Country Office Mauritius and Seychelles, Port Louis, August/October, 2009.
40. Magnoni, S.; Bassi, A.M. Creating Synergies from Renewable Energy Investments, a Community Success Story on Lolland, Denmark. Energies 2009, 2, 1151-1169.
41. Bassi, A.M. Analyzing the Role of Integrated, Dynamic, National Development Planning Models to Support Policy Formulation and Evaluation. In Proceedings of the 3rd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy, Busan, Korea, 27 October-30 October 2009.
42. Brown, S.P.A.; Huntington, H.G. Energy Security and Climate Change Protection: Complementarity or Tradeoff? Energy Policy 2008, 36, 3510-3513.
43. CNA Corporation. National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. Available online: http://securityandclimate.cna.org/ (accessed on 10 June 2010).
44. Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A. Economics, Ethics and Climate Policy: Framing the Debate. Global Planet. Change 1996, 11, 187-199.
45. Dreyfus, H. On the Internet: Thinking in Action; Routledge Press: London, UK; New York, NY, USA, 2001.