Uncertainty analysis in flood hazard assessment: Hydrological and hydraulic calibration

Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering

Volumn 37, Issue 7, 2010, Pages 968-979

  Bernardara, Pietro ^a   de Rocquigny, Etienne ^a   Goutal, Nicole ^a   Arnaud, Aurélie ^a   Passoni, Giuseppe ^b  

^a EDF R AND D   (France)

^b POLITECNICO DI MILANO   (Italy)

Author keywords

Flood hazard assessment; Hydraulic; Hydrology; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKERS; EXTREME FLOOD; FLOOD HAZARD ASSESSMENT; HYDRAULIC COMPONENTS; MODEL ERRORS; RELATIVE IMPORTANCE; ROUGHNESS COEFFICIENT; SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY; SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY; UNCERTAINTY; UNCERTAINTY SOURCES; UNCERTAINTY TREATMENT;

CALIBRATION; HAZARDS; HYDRAULICS; HYDROLOGY; INVERSE PROBLEMS; WATER;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

FLOOD CONTROL; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; HYDRAULIC PROPERTY; ROUGHNESS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 77958062592     PISSN: 03151468     EISSN: 12086029     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1139/L10-056     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Apel, H., Thieken, A.H., Merz, B., and Bloschl, G. 2004. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 4(2): 295-308. doi:10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004.
2. Bernardara, P., Schertzer, D., Sauquet, E., Tchiguirinskaia, I., and Lang, M. 2008. The flood probability distribution tail: how heavy is it? Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 22(1): 107-122. doi:10.1007/s00477-006-0101-2.
3. Beven, K. 2009. Environmental modeling: An uncertain future? Routledge, Oxford.
4. Beven, K., and Binley, M. 1992. The future of distributed model: model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes, 6(3): 279-298. doi:10.1002/hyp.3360060305.
5. Booy, C., and Lye, L.M. 1989. A new look at flood risk determination. Water Resources Bulletin, 25(5): 933-943.
6. Cacuci, D.G. 1981. Sensitivity theory for nonlinear systems. I. Nonlinear functional analysis approach. Journal of Mathematical Physics, 22(12): 2794-2802. doi:10.1063/1.525186.
7. Clarke, R.T. 1999. Uncertainty in the estimation of mean annual flood due to rating curve definition. Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam), 222(1-4): 185-190. doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(99) 00097-9.
8. Coles, S. 2001. An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values. Springer-Verlag, London.
9. Darby, S.E. 1999. Effect on riparian vegetation on flow resistance and flood potential. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 125(5): 443-454. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1999)125:5(443).
10. Darlymple, T. 1960. Flood frequency analysis. Water Supply Paper 1543-A. US Geological Survey. pp. 80.
11. Davison, A., and Hinkley, D. 1997. Bootstraps methods and their application. Cambridge Press, Cambridge.
12. De Haan, L. 1970. On regular variation and its application to weak convergence of sample extremes. Tract 32. CWI, Amsterdam.
13. De Michele, C., and Rosso, R. 2001. Uncertainty assessment of regionalized flood frequency estimates. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 6(6): 453-459. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2001) 6:6(453).
14. de Rocquigny, E., and Cambier, S. 2009. Inverse probabilistic modelling of the sources of uncertainty: a non-parametric simulated-likelihood method with application to an industrial turbine vibration assessment. Inverse Problems in Science and Engineering, 17(7): 937-959. doi:10.1080/17415970902916987.
15. de Rocquigny, E., Devictor, N., and Tarantola, S. 2008. Uncertainty in industrial practice - A guide to quantitative uncertainty management. Wiley, Chichester, UK.
16. Dixon, W.J., and Massey, F.J. 1983. Introduction to statistical analysis. 4th ed. McGraw-Hill, New York.
17. Fisher, R.A., and Tippet, L.H.C. 1928. On the estimation of the frequency distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample. In Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 24(2): 180-190.
18. Gaume, E., Livet, M., and Desbordes, M. 2003. Study of the hydrological processes during the Avene river extraordinary flood (south of France): 6-7 October 1997. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C, 28(6-7): 263-267. doi:10.1016/S1474-7065(03)00036-6.
19. Gnedenko, B. 1943. Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d'une série aléatoire. The Annals of Mathematics, 44(3): 423-453. doi:10.2307/1968974.
20. Goutal, N., and Maurel, F. 2002. A finite volume solver for 1D shallow water equations applies to an actual river. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 38(1): 1-19. doi:10. 1002/fld.201.
21. Goutal, N., Bernardara, P., de Rocquigny, E., and Arnaud, A. 2008. Uncertainties in 1D flood level modeling: stochastic analysis of upstream discharge and friction parameter influence. In Proceedings of the Floodsite Final Meeting, Oxford. 30 September? 2 October 2008 Oxford, UK.
22. Hey, R.D. 1979. Flow resistance in gravel bed rivers. Journal of the Hydraulics Division, 105(4): 365-379.
23. Hoadley, B. 1971. Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators for the independent not identically distributed case. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 42(6): 1977-1991. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177693066.
24. Horritt, M.S. 2002. Stochastic modelling of 1-D shallow water flows over uncertain topography. Journal of Computational Physics, 180(1): 327-338. doi:10.1006/jcph.2002.7097.
25. Horritt, M.S. 2006. A linearized approach to flow resistance uncertainty in a 2-D finite volume model of flood flow. Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam), 316(1-4): 13-27. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.04.009.
26. Hosking, J.R.M. 1990. L-moments: Analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B. Methodological, 52(1): 102-124.
27. Hosking, J.R.M., Wallis, J.R., and Wood, E.F. 1985. Estimation of the generalized extreme value distribution by the probability weighted moments. Technometrics, 27(3): 251-261. doi:10.2307/1269706.
28. Johnson, P.A. 1996. Uncertainty of hydraulic parameters. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 122(2): 112-114. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1996)122:2(112).
29. Kendall, M.G., and Stuart, A. 1943. The advanced theory of statistics. Griffin & Co, London.
30. Klemeš, V. 2000. Tall tales about tails of hydrological distributions. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 5(3): 227-239. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2000)5:3(227).
31. Kottegoda, N.T., and Rosso, R. 1997. Statistics, probability and reliability for civil and environmental engineers. McGraw-Hill, New York.
32. Kyselý, J. 2008. A cautionary note on the use of nonparametric bootstrap for estimating uncertainties in extreme-value models. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 47(12): 3236-3251. doi:10.1175/2008JAMC1763.1.
33. Lang, M., Ouarda, T.B.M.J., and Bobée, B. 1999. Towards operational guidelines for over-threshold modeling. Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam), 225(3-4): 103-117. doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(99)00167-5.
34. Merwade, V., Olivera, F., Arabi, M., and Edleman, S. 2008. Uncertainty in flood inundation mapping: Current issues and future directions. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 13(7): 608-620. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2008)13:7(608).
35. Merz, R., and Bloschl, G. 2005. Flood frequency regionalisation-spatial proximity vs. catchment attributes. Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam), 302(1-4): 283-306. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.07. 018.
36. Merz, B., and Thieken, A.H. 2005. Separating natural and epistemic uncertainty in flood frequency analysis. Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam), 309(1-4): 114-132. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.11.015.
37. Miquel, J. 1984. Guide pratique d'estimation des probabilités des crues. Collection de la Direction des études et Recherches d'EDF. Eyrolles Ed., Paris.
38. Pappenberger, F., and Beven, K. 2006. Ignorance is bliss: Or seven reasons not to use uncertainty analysis. Water Resources Research, 42(5): W05302. doi:10.1029/2005WR004820.
39. Plate, E.J. 2002. Flood risk and flood management. Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam), 267(1-2): 2-11. doi:10.1016/S00221694(02)00135-X.
40. Rico, M., Benito, G., and Barnolas, A. 2001. Combined palaeo flood and rainfall-runoff assessment of mountain floods (Spanish Pyrenees). Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam), 245(1-4): 59-72. doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00339-0.
41. Robert, A. 1990. Boundary roughness in coarse grained channel. Progress in Physical Geography, 14(1): 42-70. doi:10.1177/030913339001400103.
42. Robert, C.P., and Casella, G. 2004. Monte Carlo statistical methods. Springer, New York.
43. Rubinstein, R.Y. 1981. Simulation and the Monte-Carlo method. John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, N.J.
44. Saltelli, A. 2002. Making best use of model valuations to compute sensitivity indices. Computer Physics Communications, 145(2): 280-297. doi:10.1016/S0010-4655(02)00280-1.
45. Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., Campolongo, F., and Ratto, M. 2004. Sensitivity analysis in practice. A guide to assessing scientific models. John Wiley and Sons, Chinchester, UK.
46. Saporta, G. 1990. Probabilités, analyse des données et statistique. èditions Technip, Paris.
47. Schertzer, D., Hubert, P., and Lovejoy, S. 2002. Scaling, multifractals and predictions in ungauged basins: Where we've been, where we're going? Prediction of ungauged basins. An IAHS Initiative. Edited by P. Hubert, D. Schertzer, K. Takeuchi, and S. Kolde. IAHS Press, Wallingford UK. pp. 20-22.
48. Tarantola, A. 1987. Inverse problem theory and methods for data fitting and model parameter estimation. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
49. Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., and Mai, C.V. 2008. Distribution functions of extreme sea waves and river discharges. Journal of Hydraulic Research, 46(2): 280-291.
50. Venugopal, V., Roux, S.G., Foufoula-Georgiou, E., and Arneodo, A. 2006. Revisiting multifractality of high resolution temporal rainfall using a wavelet-based formalism. Water Resources Research, 42(6): W06D14. doi:10.1029/2005WR004489.
51. Wohl, E.E. 1998. Uncertainty in flood estimates associated with roughness coefficient. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 124(2): 219-223. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1998)124:2(219).