The coming famine: The global food crisis and what we can do to avoid It

The Coming Famine: The Global Food Crisis and What We Can Do to Avoid It

Volumn , Issue , 2010, Pages

  Cribb, Julian ^a  

^a NONE

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References (321)

1. "G8 Leaders Statement on Global Food Security," G8 Summits Hokkaido Official Documents, July 8, 2008, www .g8 .utoronto .ca/ summit/ 2008hokkaido/ 2008-food .html .
2. Andrew Grice, "Over Caviar and Sea Urchin, G8 Leaders Mull Food Crisis," London In de pen dent, July 8, 2008, www .independent .co .uk/ news/ world/ politics/ over-caviar-and-sea-urchin-g8-leaders-mull-food-crisis-862051 .html .
3. "Global Food Crisis 'Silent Tsunami' Threatening over 100 Million People, Warns UN," UN News Centre, April 22, 2008, www .un .org/ apps/ news/ story .asp ?NewsID =26412 & Cr =food & Cr1 =price. These figures assume a cost of eighty cents per day to feed each person.
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7. See Global Health Council, "Child Mortality," n.d., www .globalhealth .org/ child _health/ child _mortality/ .
8. Anthony Faiola, "The New Economics of Hunger," Washington Post, April 27, 2008, www .washingtonpost .com/ wp-dyn/ content/ story/ 2008/ 04/ 26/ ST2008042602333 .html .
9. Vivienne Walt, "The World's Growing Food-Price Crisis," Time, February 27, 2008, www .time .com/ time/ world/ article/ 0 ,8599 ,1717572 ,00 .html .
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11. Benjamin Senauer, "The Appetite for Biofuel Starves the Poor," Guardian, July 3, 2008, www .guardian .co .uk/ commentisfree/ 2008/ jul/ 03/ biofuels .usa
12. "Man-Made Hunger," editorial, New York Times, July 2008, www .nytimes .com/ 2008/ 07/ 06/ opinion/ 06sun1 .html ?scp =2 & sq =food +riots +30 +countries & st-yt
13. "World Bank President to G8: 'World Entering a Danger Zone,' " World Bank, press release, July 2, 2008, http:// web .worldbank .org/ WBSITE/ EXTERNAL/ NEWS/ 0 , ,contentMDK:21828803 ~pagePK:34370 ~piPK: 34424 ~theSitePK:4607 ,00 .html
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15. "Food Prices- The Silent Tsunami," Economist, April 19, 2008, www .economist .com/ opinion/ displayStory .cfm ?Story _ID =11050146 .
16. Karen Barlow, "Food Riots an Apocalyptic Warning," ABC News (Australia), April 14, 2008, www .abc .net .au/ news/ stories/ 2008/ 04/ 14/ 2215873 .htm ? section =world .
17. "World Bank Chief Calls for G8 Help to Feed World's Hungry," Environment News Ser vice, July 8, 2008, www .ens-newswire .com/ ens/ jul2008/ 2008-07-03-01 .asp
18. David Nason, "First Signs of the Coming Famine," Australian, April 26, 2008, www .theaustralian .news .com .au/ story/ 0 ,25197 ,23599517-27702 ,00 .html .
19. "High Rice Prices No Windfall for Many Asian Farmers," International Rice Research Institute, April 7, 2008, http:// beta .irri .org/ news/ index2 .php ?option =com _content & do _pdf =1 & id =3928
20. "Major Fast-Food Companies to Serve Half-Cup Rice," Manila Times, April 2, 2008, p. 1, www .manilatimes .net/ national/ 2008/ apr/ 02/ yehey/ images/ front .pdf
21. "Rice Heist Sows Panic among Farmers," Reuters, March 24, 2008, www .reuters .com/ article/ oddlyEnoughNews/ idUSBKK3160020080324
22. Suzy Jagger and David Charter, Dow-Jones News Wire, "Wal-Mart, UK Stores Ration Rice Sales," Australian, April 24, 2008, www . theaustralian .news .com .au/ story/ 0 ,25197 ,23591506-23850 ,00 .html
23. "Factbox: Why Have Rice Prices Surged to Record Highs?" Reuters, April 25, 2008, www .reuters .com/ article/ worldNews/ idUSSP13081120080425 ?pageNumber =2 & virtualBrandChannel =0 & sp =true
24. "Rice Prices 'to Keep on Rising,' " BBC, April 11, 2008, http:// news .bbc .co .uk/ 2/ hi/ business/ 7341978 .stm .
25. International Food Policy Institute, "New Global Hunger Index: 33 Countries Have 'Alarming' or 'Extremely Alarming' Levels of Hunger," press release, October 15, 2008, www .ifpri .org/ PRESSREL/ 2008/ pressrel20081014 .pdf
26. Food and Agriculture Or ga ni za tion of the United Nations, "Bill Gates, FAO Chief Ponder Anti-hunger Fight," FAO Newsroom, May 11, 2009, www .fao .org/ news/ story/ en/ item/ 19516/ icode/ .
27. Joachim von Braun et al., "Overview of the World Food Situation," brief prepared for the Annual General Meeting of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Nairobi, October 29, 2003, www .ifpri .org/ pubs/ speeches/ 20031029vonbraun .htm
28. Organization for Economic Coopera-tion and Development and Food and Agriculture Or ga ni za tion of the United Nations, "OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017," 2008, p. 11, www .oecd .org/ dataoecd/ 54/ 15/ 40715381 .pdf .
29. Aditya Chakrabortyy, "Secret Report: Biofuels Caused Food Crisis," Guardian, July 3, 2008, www .guardian .co .uk/ environment/ 2008/ jul/ 03/ biofuels .renewableenergy
30. Joachim von Braun, "High and Rising Food Prices: Why Are They Rising, Who Is Affected, How Are They Affected, and What Should Be Done?" paper presented at U.S. Agency for International Development conference, Washington, D.C., April 11, 2008, p. 4, www .ifpri .org/ presentations/ 20080411jvbfoodprices .pdf .
31. Faiola, "New Economics of Hunger"
32. "Philippines Caught in Rice Squeeze," Washington Post, April 12, 2008, p.1, www .washingtonpost .com/ wp-dyn/ content/ article/ 2008/ 04/ 11/ AR2008041104162 .html .
33. For example, John Vidal, "Global Food Crisis Looms as Climate Change and Fuel Shortages Bite," The Guardian, November 3, 2007, www .guardian .co .uk/ environment/ 2007/ nov/ 03/ food .climatechange
34. John Iroga, "Climate Change Linked to Global Food Shortage," Solomon Times, May 1, 2008, www .solomontimes .com/ news .aspx ?nwID =1705
35. "Climate Change May Intensify Food Crisis, Warns UN," Sindh Today, February 17, 2009, www .sindhtoday .net/ world/ 64875 .htm .
36. Andrew Stoekel, "High Food Prices: Causes, Implications and Solutions," paper prepared for the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, Government of Australia, Publication 08-1900, June 2008, https:// rirdc .infoservices .com .au/ downloads/ 08-100 .pdf .
37. Bruce Sundquist, "The Global Food Crisis: Some Solutions for a World with Fewer Options for Satisfying Increasing Demands," September 2008, http:// home .windstream .net/ bsundquist1/ index .html .
38. Michael Murphy, "The Era of Cheap Food Is Well and Truly Over!" DairyNZ, June 2008, p. 10, www .dairynz .co .nz/ file/ fileid/ 8947 .
39. Dow Jones Newswire, "Global Food Demand to Double by 2050, Research Key: Experts," Flexnews: Business News for the Food Industry, October 16, 2007, www .flex-news-food .com/ pages/ 11603/ global _food _demand _double _2050 _research _key _ _ _experts _dj .html
40. FAO, Declaration of the World Summit on Food Security, Rome, November 16-18, 2009, p. 2, http:// www .fao .org/ fileadmin/ templates/ wsfs/ Summit/ Docs/ Final _Declaration/ WSFS09 _Declaration .pdf .
41. International Water Management Institute, summary of Water for Food; Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, ed. David Molden (Sterling, Va.: Earthscan, 2007), p. 5, www .fao .org/ nr/ water/ docs/ Summary _SynthesisBook .pdf. I based my projection of growth in urban demand on United Nations population projections.
42. Ron Leng, "The Morality of Biofuels," editorial, ScienceAlert, May 7, 2007, www .sciencealert .com .au/ opinions/ 20070805-15733 .html .
43. Boris Worm et al., "Impacts of Biodiversity Loss on Ocean Ecosystem Ser vices," Science 314 (November 3, 2006): 789.
44. Alex Evans, "The Feeding of Nine Billion: Global Food Security for the 21st Century, a Chatham House Report," January 26, 2009, p. 6, www .humansecuritygateway .info/ documents/ CHATHAM _FeedingNineBillion _GlobalFoodSecurity21stCentury .pdf .
45. Jimmy Carter, "First Step to Peace Is Eradicating Hunger," International Herald Tribune, June 17, 1999, www .iht .com/ articles/ 1999/ 06/ 17/ edcarter .2 .t .php .
46. Richard Pipes, A Concise History of the Rus sian Revolution (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1995).
47. Carter, "First Step to Peace Is Eradicating Hunger."
48. The International Food Policy Research Institute, for example, defines "food wars" specifically as the use of hunger as a weapon or hunger that follows from destructive conflict, not vice versa. The Food and Agriculture Or ga ni za tion of the United Nations (FAO), in many papers, attributes food scarcity to wars- but almost no wars to food scarcity.
49. See, for example, FAO, "World Food Summit Five Years Later: Conflict and Food Insecurity," FAO, 2007, www .fao .org/ worldfoodsummit/ msd/ Y6808e .htm .
50. Indra de Soysa and Nils Petter Gleditsch with Michael Gibson, Margareta Sollenberg, and Arthur H. Westing, "To Cultivate Peace: Agriculture in a World of Conflict," PRIO Report 1/99, 1999, www .isn .ethz .ch/ isn/ Digital-Library/ Publications/ Detail/ ?ots591 =CAB359A3-9328-19CC-A1D2-8023E646B22C & lng =en & id =37962 .
51. In 2006 the countries with the highest rates of mortality for children younger than five were Sierra Leone (270 per 1,000), Angola (260 per 1,000), Af-ghan i stan (257 per 1,000), Niger (253 per 1,000), Liberia (235 per 1,000), Mali (217 per 1,000), Chad (209 per 1,000), Equatorial Guinea (206 per 1,000), Demo cratic Republic of the Congo (205 per 1,000), Burkina Faso (204 per 1,000), and Guinea-Bissau (200 per 1,000).
52. See UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, and UN Population Division, "Levels and Trends of Child Mortality in 2006: Estimates Developed by the Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation," New York, 2007, p. 29, www .unescap .org/ rw-mdgm/ REG/ Indicator4 .1(Document1) .pdf .
53. Ellen Messer and Mark J. Cohen, "Conflict and Food Security," International Food Policy Research Institute, August 2001, www .ifpri .org/ 2020/ focus/ focus08/ focus08 _12 .asp .
54. "Poverty 'Fuelling Terrorism,' " BBC News, March 22, 2002, http:// news .bbc .co .uk/ 1/ hi/ world/ 1886617 .stm .
55. Ben Sutherland, "Water Shortages 'Foster Terrorism,' " BBC News, March 18, 2003, http:// news .bbc .co .uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 2859937 .stm .
56. Ellen Messer, Mark J. Cohen, and Jashinta D'Costa, "Food from Peace: Breaking the Links between Conflict and Hunger," International Food Policy Research Institute, 2020 brief no. 50, June 1998, www .ifpri .org/ 2020/ BRIEFS/ NUMBER50 .HTM .
57. FAO, "Assessment of the World Food Security and Nutrition Situation," report to the Committee on World Food Security, 34th sess., October 14-17, 2008, Rome, www .fao .org/ UNFAO/ Bodies/ cfs/ cfs34/ index _en .htm .
58. U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, "Transnational Issues," World Fact Book, April 29, 2009, https:// www .cia .gov/ library/ publications/ the-world-factbook/ geos/ xx .html .
59. Alan Dupont, East Asia Imperilled: Transnational Challenges to Security (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), pp. 109, 110
60. Lee Hsieng Loong, keynote address, International Institute for Strategic Studies 7th Asia Security Summit Shangri-la Dialogue, May 30, 2008, Singapore, www .iiss .org/ conferences/ the-shangri-la-dialogue/ shangri-la-dialogue-2008/ plenary-session-speeches-2008/ keynote-address-lee-hsien-loong/ ?locale =en .
61. David McKeeby, "Many Modern Conflicts Are Food Wars, Say Experts," America .gov (a Web site of the U.S. State Department), September 12, 2007, www .america .gov/ st/ washfile-english/ 2007/ September/ 20070912113737idybeekcm0 .9691278 .html .
62. "Red Cross Warns of New Food Riots," virginmedia .com, May 27, 2008, http:// latestnews .virginmedia .com/ news/ world/ 2008/ 05/ 27/ red _cross _warns _of _new _food _riots .
63. Ismail Serageldin, "Avoiding Water Wars: A Vision for a Water Secure World," Barcelona, 2007, www .serageldin .com/ ListPresentations .aspx
64. Mike Thomson, "Ex-UN Chief Warns of Water Wars," BBC News, February 2, 2005, http:// news .bbc .co .uk/ 2/ hi/ africa/ 4227869 .stm
65. Ban Ki-moon, "Time Is Running Out on Water," remarks prepared for delivery to World Economic Summit, Davos, January 24, 2008, www .un .org/ apps/ sg/ sgstats .asp ?nid =2967 .
66. Adel Darwish, "Analysis: Middle East Water Wars," BBC News, May 2003, http:// news .bbc .co .uk/ 2/ hi/ middle _east/ 2949768 .stm .
67. Peter H. Gleick, "Water Conflict Chronology," Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, November 10, 2008, www .worldwater .org/ conflictchronology .pdf .
68. Dupont, East Asia Imperilled.
69. Shira B. Yoffe, "Basins at Risk: Conflict and Cooperation over International Freshwater Resources: Indicators and Findings of the Basins at Risk Project" (Ph.D. diss., October 2001, Oregon State University), www .transboundarywaters .orst .edu/ research/ basins _at _risk/ index .html .
70. Gleick, "Water Conflict Chronology."
71. Dupont, East Asia Imperilled, p. 101.
72. Meryl J. Williams and Choo Poh Sze, "Fish Wars: Science Is Shaping a New Peace Agenda," p. 85, paper prepared for "Food, Water and War: Security in a World of Conflict," conference sponsored by the Crawford Fund for International Agricultural Research, Canberra, August 15, 2000.
73. De Soysa, Gleditsch, et al., "To Cultivate Peace."
74. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, "2008 Global Trends: Refugees, Asylum-Seekers, Returnees, Internally-Displaced and Stateless Persons," June 2009, http:// www .unhcr .org/ 4a375c426 .html .
75. Article 1A(2), Convention and Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees, 1951 and 1967, www .unhcr .org/ protect/ PROTECTION/ 3b66c2aa10 .pdf .
76. For Canadian immigration statistics, see http:// epe .lac-bac .gc .ca/ 100/ 202/ 301/ immigration _statistics-ef/ index .html
77. statistics regarding legal permanent residents of the United States are available at www .dhs .gov/ ximgtn/ statistics/ publications/ yearbook .shtm .
78. Steven Mintz, "The Irish Potato Famine," Digital History, 2007, www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/historyonline/irish-potato-famine.cfm.
79. Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme, 2007-2036 (London: U.K. Ministry of Defence, 2007), pp. 27-31, www .dcdc-strategictrends .org .uk/ viewdoc .aspx ?doc =1 .
80. Kurt M. Campbell et al., "The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change," Center for Strategic and International Studies and Center for a New American Security, Washington, D.C., November 2007, pp. 6, 7, www .csis .org/ media/ csis/ pubs/ 071105 _ageofconsequences .pdf .
81. Sam Perlo-Freeman, Catalina Perdomo, Elisabeth Sköns, and Petter Stålenheim, summary of chap. 5, "Military Expenditure," in Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook 2009: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, www .sipri .org/ yearbook/ 2009/ 05 .
82. International Riverfoundation, "The Dying Lake," 2006 brochure, Brisbane.
83. See also Amos Brandeis, "Lake Bam- Twinning Project between Alexander River Restoration Administration and Burkina Faso, Africa," RestorationPlanning .com, n.d., www .restorationplanning .com/ bam .html .
84. Associated Press, "Shrinking of Lake Chad: A Tale of Human Abuse, Climate Change," Global Policy Forum, December 14, 2006, www .globalpolicy .org/ security/ natres/ water/ 2006/ 1214lakechad .htm
85. Food and Agriculture Or ga-ni za tion of the United Nations (FAO), "Lake Chad Facing Humanitarian Disaster," October 15, 2009, www .fao .org/ news/ story/ en/ item/ 36126/ icode/
86. "China's Water Shortage to Hit Danger Limit in 2030," People's Daily On Line, November 16, 2001, http:// english .peopledaily .com .cn/ 200111/ 16/ eng20011116 _84668 .shtml .
87. International Water Management Institute (IWMI), "Water: The Forgotten Crisis," press release, July 10, 2008, www .iwmi .cgiar .org/ news _room/ pdf/ Water _The _forgotten _crisis .pdf .
88. David Molden, "Achieving Food and Environmental Security: Better Water Management for Healthy Coastal Zones," keynote address for Environment and Livelihoods in Coastal Zones, Bac Lieu, Vietnam, March 1-3, 2005.
89. IWMI, summary of Water for Food; Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, ed. David Molden (Sterling, Va.: Earthscan, 2007), www .fao .org/ nr/ water/ docs/ Summary _SynthesisBook .pdf .
90. IWMI, "Water Management: Urgent Need for More Food with Less Water," Science Daily, March 27, 2007, www .iwmi .cgiar .org/ News _Room/ Multimedia/ coverage/ pdf/ ScienceDaily _Urgent _need _for _more _food _with _less _water .pdf
91. FAO, FAO Statistical Yearbook 2005-2006, table D.1, www .fao .org/ es/ ess/ yearbook/ vol _1 _1/ pdf/ d01 .pdf .
92. Wayne S. Meyer, "Water for Food- The Continuing Debate," Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Government of Australia, n.d., www .clw .csiro .au/ issues/ water/ water _for _food .html #howmuch .
93. Similarly, a motorist filling his or her vehicle's fuel tank with biodiesel will in fact be "fueling" that car with 30 tonnes of water (33 U.S. tons), on average once a week. More on this in chapter 8.
94. IWMI, summary of Water for Food, p. 5.
95. A. K. Chapagain and A. Y. Hoekstra, "Water Footprint of Nations," table 4.9, vol. 1, Main Report, Value of Water Report no. 16, UNESCO Institute for Water Education, Netherlands, November 2004, www .waterfootprint .org/ Reports/ Report16Vol1 .pdf. I have converted the figures from cubic meters (as given in the report) to tonnes (1 cubic meter =1 tonne).
96. See IWMI, summary of Water for Food, pp. 7 and 14, on the doubling of the area of irrigated land and the tripling of water withdrawals. The estimate of freshwater needs comes from Colin Chartres, "Only a Price on Water Can End Threat to Food Security," ScienceAlert, August 21, 2009, www .sciencealert .com .au/ opinions/ 20092108-19601 .html .
97. Extrapolation of UN estimate that cities housed 37 percent of global population in 1975 and 47 percent in 2000, and will have 53 percent in 2015 and 60 percent in 2030 (see Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http:// esa .un .org/ unup). Intensification of food production could shift a further 1 billion or so people to the cities from rural areas. The figure of 1,200 cubic kilometers comes from IWMI, summary of Water for Food, p. 6, and the figure of 2,500 cubic kilometers is my projection.
98. David Krantz and Brad Kifferstein, "Water Pollution and Society," n.d., www .umich .edu/ ~gs265/ society/ waterpollution .htm
99. Peter H. Gleick, "Dirty Water: Estimated Deaths from Water-Related Disease 2000-2020," Pacific Institute Research Report, August 15, 2002, p. 3, www .pacinst .org/ reports/ water _related _deaths/ water _related _deaths _report .pdf .
100. IWMI, summary of Water for Food, p. 1.
101. David Pimentel et al., "Will Limits of the Earth's Resources Control Human Numbers?" paper, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y., February 25, 1999, http:// dieoff .org/ page174 .htm .
102. Joachim von Braun et al., "Overview of the World Food Situation," brief prepared for the annual general meeting of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Nairobi, October 29, 2003, www .ifpri .org/ pubs/ speeches/ 20031029vonbraun .htm .
103. V. Haller, "Water an Issue at Food Summit," Jakarta Post, November 11, 1996.
104. "China's Water Shortage."
105. Quotations from John McAlister, "China's Water Crisis- Strategy Focus," Deutsche Bank China Expert Series, March 22, 2005
106. Ruixiang Zhu, "China's South-North Water Transfer Project and Its Impacts on Economic and Social Development," Ministry of Water Resources, People's Republic of China, n.d., www .mwr .gov .cn/ english1/ 20060110/ 20060110104100XDENTE .pdf .
107. IWMI, "Water: The Forgotten Crisis"
108. Chartres, "Only a Price on Water Can End Threat to Food Security."
109. Brian Halweil, "Meat Production Continues to Rise," Worldwatch Institute, August 20, 2008, www .worldwatch .org/ node/ 5443 ?emc =el & m =136135 & l =5 & v =ea5c798974
110. McAlister, "China's Water Crisis"
111. Lenntech, "Use of Water in Food and Agriculture," Lenntech .com, n.d., www .lenntech .com/ water-food-agriculture .htm. The amount of water required to meet the increase in meat demand is my extrapolation from figures provided by the sources cited. This estimate of meat demand may also be too low because, with the predicted collapse in global fisheries, it may be necessary to find an additional 100 million tonnes (110 million U.S. tons) of meat or other protein from land-based sources. See chapter 6.
112. IWMI, "Water: The Forgotten Crisis."
113. Some scientists even argue that part of the Earth's groundwater percolates as superheated steam out of the planet's liquid mantle and is thus replaced only at geological rates over millions of years. See, for example, Lance Endersbee, A Voyage of Discovery (Frankston, Victoria, Aus.: Author, 2005).
114. "How Much Do We Depend on Groundwater?" Groundwater Foundation, n.d., www .groundwater .org/ gi/ depend .html
115. David E. Kromm, "Ogallala Aquifer," Water Encyclopedia, n.d., www .waterencyclopedia .com/ Oc-Po/ Ogallala-Aquifer .html
116. Manjula V. Guru and James E. Horne, "The Ogallala Aquifer," Kerr Center for Sustainable Agriculture, July 20, www .kerrcenter .com/ publications/ ogallala _aquifer .pdf
117. J. J. Woods et al., "Water Level Decline in the Ogallala Aquifer," Kansas Geological Survey Open-file Report 2000-29B (v2.0), December 1, 2000, www .kgs .ku .edu/ HighPlains/ 2000-29B/ Decdir .htm
118. Docking Institute of Public Affairs, "The Value of Ogallala Aquifer Water in Southwest Kansas," figs. 2 and 3 in chap. 1 of The Value of Ogallala Groundwater (Hays, Kans.: Docking Institute, 2001), www .fhsu .edu/ docking/ img/ Archives/ SW %20Groundwater-Ogallala/ Part %204 .Chapter %201 .pdf .
119. Daniel Zwerdling, "Green Revolution Trapping India's Farmers in Debt," npr .org, April 14, 2009, www .npr .org/ templates/ story/ story .php ?storyId =102944731
120. "Neerjaal: India's First Holistic Water Resource Management System," Digital Empowerment Foundation, n.d., http:// defindia .net/ section _full _story .asp ?id =427
121. "Concern over Depletion of Groundwater Sources," Hindu Business Line, September 19, 2007, www .thehindubusinessline .com/ 2007/ 09/ 19/ stories/ 2007091952411000 .htm .
122. "China's Water Shortage"; Richard Evans, "North China Groundwater Management Strategy," abstract, Sinclair Knight Merz, July 23, 2002, www .skmconsulting .com/ Markets/ environmental/ North _China _Groundwater _Management _Strategy .htm
123. Zijun Li, "Expert: Half of Chinese Cities Have Polluted Groundwater," Worldwatch Institute, December 6, 2005, www .worldwatch .org/ node/ 1060
124. Europe an Environment Agency, "Inland Waters," chap. 5 of Eu rope's Environment- The Dobris Assessment, State of the Environment Report 1, 1995, http:// reports .eea .europa .eu/ 92-826-5409-5/ en/ page005new .html (to download full text, see link to zipped file at bottom of page).
125. International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development, "Executive Summary of Synthesis Report of the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD)," 2008, p. 4, www .agassessment .org/ docs/ IAASTD _EXEC _SUMMARY _JAN _2008 .pdf .
126. Ingrid Richardson, "Fertilisers, a Precious Commodity," Rabobank Global Focus Report, summer 2007, fig. 1.
127. Ghislain de Marsily, "Water, Climate Change, Food and Population Growth," Revue des Sciences de l'Eau 21, no. 2 (2008): 111-28.
128. Alex Evans, "The Feeding of Nine Billion: Global Food Security for the 21st Century, a Chatham House Report," January 26, 2009, www .humansecuritygateway .info/ documents/ CHATHAM _FeedingNineBillion _GlobalFoodSecurity21stCentury .pdf
129. Ama Biney, "Land Grabs- Another Scramble for Africa," AllAfrica .com, September 17, 2009, http:// allafrica .com/ stories/ printable/ 200909180570 .html .
130. International Soil Reference and Information Centre, Global Assessment of Human-Induced Soil Degradation (Wageningen, Netherlands: International Soil Reference and Information Centre, 1990), www-cger .nies .go .jp/ grid-e/ gridtxt/ grid15 .html. To look up the state of soil degradation in a par tic u lar country in 1990, go to www .fao .org/ landandwater/ agll/ glasod/ glasodmaps .jsp ?country =%25 & search =Display +map +%21 .
131. Z. G. Bai, D. L. Dent, L. Olsson, and M. E. Schaepman, "Global Assessment of Land Degradation and Improvement. 1. Identification by Remote Sensing," Report 2008/01, ISRIC-World Soil Information, Wageningen, Netherlands, 2008, p. i, www .isric .org/ isric/ webdocs/ docs/ Report %202008 _01 _GLADA %20international _REV _Aug %202008 .pdf .
132. UN Environment Programme, "Don't Desert Drylands," message on World Environment Day, June 5, 2006, www .unep .org/ wed/ 2006/ downloads/ PDF/ UNEPWEDMessage06 _eng .pdf .
133. According to Uriel Safriel and Zafar Adeel, "Drylands cover about 41% of Earth's land surface and are inhabited by more than 2 billion people (about one third of world population)."
134. See their "Dryland Systems," chap. 22, p. 625, in World Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005, vol. 1, Current State and Trends Assessment, www .maweb .org/ documents/ document .291 .aspx .pdf. My extrapolation that one-third of the world's population will still live in deserts in 2050 is conservative.
135. Michael A. Stocking, "Land Degradation in the World's Most Acutely Affected Areas," lead pre sen ta tion at UN Forum on Sustainable Land Management, New York, March 27, 2007, www .unuony .hypermart .net/ seminars/ 2007/ LandManagement/ presentations/ PaperStocking .pdf
136. S. M. Alam, R. Ansari, and M. Athar Khan, "Saline Agriculture and Pakistan," Industry and Economy, May 8-21, 2000, www .pakistaneconomist .com/ issue2000/ issue19 & 20/ i & e3 .htm .
137. H. R. von Uexküll and E. Muttert, "Global Extent, Development, and Economic Impact of Acid Soils," abstract of paper presented at the International Symposium on Plant-Soil Interactions at Low pH, September 12-16, 1993, http:// cat .inist .fr/ ?aModele =afficheN & cpsidt =3543620 .
138. Cooperative Research Centre for Contamination Assessment and Remediation of the Environment, "World Facing Arsenic Poisoning Calamity," February 2008, www .crccare .com/ view/ index .aspx ?id =14938 .
139. "Rising Ozone Pollution Threatens Crop Yields," Nature, May 5, 2005, excerpted at SciDev.Net, www .scidev .net/ en/ news/ rising-ozone-pollution-threatens-crop-yields .html .
140. Xu Qi, "Facing Up to 'Invisible Pollution,'" chinadialogue.net, January 29, 2007, www .chinadialogue .net/ article/ show/ single/ en/ 724-Facing-up-to-invisible-pollution-.
141. Bruce Sundquist, "Urbanization-Caused Topsoil (Cropland) Loss," chap. 6 in Topsoil Loss and Degradation, http:// home .windstream .net/ bsundquist1/ index .html .
142. "Japan: Black Day at Narita Airport," Time, April 10, 1978, www .time.com/ time/ magazine/ article/ 0 ,9171 ,948067-2 ,00 .html .
143. John Garnaut, "Farm Grab Sows Seeds of Rebellion," theage .com.au, January 2, 2008, www .theage .com .au/ news/ world/ farm-grab-sows-seeds-of-rebellion/ 2008/ 01/ 01/ 1198949815542 .html .
144. United Nations Environment Programme, "Plant for Planet: Questions and Answers," n.d., www .unep .org/ billiontreecampaign/ FactsFigures/ QandA/ index .asp .
145. Alan Harten, "Norway Offers Brazil $1 Billion to Save the Amazon," FairHome, September 17, 2008, www.fairhome.co.uk/2008/09/17/norway-offer-brazil-1-billion-to-save-the-amazon/ .
146. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report," Summary for Policymakers, November 2007, www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf;
147. United Nations Environmental Programme, "Estimates of People Flooded in Coastal Areas in the 2080s as a Result of Sea- Level Rise and for Given Socio- Economic Scenarios and Protection Responses," June 2007, http:// maps .grida .no/ go/ graphic/ estimates -of -people -flooded -in -coastal -areas -in -the -2080s -as -a-result -of -sea -level -rise -and -for -given -socio -economic -scenarios -and -protection -responses .
148. Ross Garnaut, "Fateful Decisions," chap. 24 in The Garnaut Climate Change Review (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), www .garnautreport .org .au/ #FinalReport .
149. Kelly Young, "Greenland Ice Cap May Be Melting at Triple Speed," NewScientist, August 10, 2006, www .newscientist .com/ article/ dn9717Melt .
150. Anthony Fischer, "Brazilian Cerrado: Current Status and Prospects as a Food Bowl for the World," unpublished report, 2008.
151. Eu ro pe an Bank for Reconstruction and Development, "EBRD, FAO and Rus sian Ministry of Agriculture to Join Forces to Boost Public- Private Cooperation," press release, October 17, 2008, www .ebrd .com/ new/ pressrel/ 2008/ 081017 .htm .
152. I have calculated these estimates of growth in food output from global production statistics provided by the FAO's Statistics Division at http:// faostat .fao .org .
153. Karen McGhee, "Restoring China's Grasslands," Partners Magazine, November 2007-February 2008, pp. 10-15, www .aciar .gov .au/ publication/ term/ 36 .
154. George Monbiot, "Small Is Bountiful," Monbiot .com, June 10, 2008, www .monbiot .com/ archives/ 2008/ 06/ 10/ small -is -bountiful/ .
155. For more information about permaculture, see "What Is Permaculture?" Permaculture Research Institute of Australia, September 13, 2005, http:// permaculture .org .au/ what -is -permaculture/ .
156. Andrew Grice, "Britain Declares War on Food Waste," (London) In de - pen dent, July 7, 2008, www .independent .co .uk/ environment/ green -living/ britain -declares -war -on -food -waste -861250 .html .
157. "The £20bn Food Mountain: Britons Throw Away Half of the Food Produced Each Year," (London) In de pen dent, March 2, 2008, www .independent .co .uk/ life -style/ food -and -drink/ news/ the -16320bn -food -mountain -britons -throw -away -half -of -the -food -produced -each -year -790318 .html .
158. "U.S. Wastes Half Its Food," FOOD navigator- usa.com, November 26, 2004, www .foodnavigator -usa .com/ Financial -Industry/ US -wastes -half -its -food .
159. "Rot-Or Not?" World Vegetable Center Newsletter, May 23, 2008, www .avrdc .org/ morenews/ 2008/ May/ foodwaste .pdf .
160. J. Lundqvist, C. de Fraiture, and D. Molden, "Saving Water: From Field to Fork-Curbing Losses and Wastage in the Food Chain," Stockholm International Water Institute Policy Brief, 2008, www .siwi .org/ sa/ node .asp ?node =343 .
161. Vaclav Smil, "Population Growth and Nitrogen: An Exploration of a Critical Existential Link," Population and Development Review 17 (1991): 569- 601;
162. Smil, "Phosphorus: Global Transfers," pp. 536-542 in Ted Munn, ed., Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change (New York: Wiley, 2002).
163. M. Nelson and M. Mareida, "Environmental Impacts of the CGIAR: An Assessment," Doc. no. SDR/TAC:IAR/01/11, presented to the Mid- Term Meeting of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, May 21- 25, 2001, Durban, South Africa.
164. Ingrid Richardson, "Fertilisers, a Precious Commodity," Rabobank Global Focus Report, summer 2007, fig. 5.
165. O. C. Bockman, O. Kaarstad, O. H. Lie, and I. Richard, "Agriculture and Fertilisers: Fertilisers in Perspective," Norske Hydro, Oslo, 1990;
166. Doris Blaesing, "Controlling Nitrogen Losses- Can We Learn from the Eu ro pe an Experience?" Proceedings of the Australian Agronomy Conference, Geelong, February 2003, www .regional .org .au/ au/ asa/ 2003/ c/ 8/ blaesing .htm .
167. Smil, "Phosphorus: Global Transfers."
168. R. P. Narwal, B. R. Singh, and R. S. Antil, "Soil Degradation as a Threat to Food Security," in Rattan Lal, David O. Hansen, Norman Uphoff, and Steven Slack, eds., Food Security and Environmental Quality in the Developing World (New York: CRC Press, 2002), p. 95.
169. Johan Rockström et al., "," Nature, September 23, 2009, www .nature .com/ nature/ journal/ v461/ n7263/ full/ 461472a .html;
170. Z. X. Tan, R. Lal, and R. D. Weibe, "Global Soil Nutrient Depletion and Yield Reduction," Journal of Sustainable Agriculture 26, no. 1 (2005): 133, 136, 141.
171. James Murray, "," BusinessGreen .com, August 4, 2009, www .businessgreen .com/ business -green/ news/ 2247241/ iea -official -peak -oil -closer .
172. Richardson, "," p. 6.
173. Plant Production and Protection Division, Food and Agriculture Or ga ni - za tion, "Plant Nutrients: What We Know, Guess and Do Not Know," March 27, 2007, www .fao .org/ ag/ AGL/ agll/ plnu _know .stm # _Toc30481155 .
174. Alex Evans, "," GlobalDashboard, August 8, 2008, www .globaldashboard .org/ scarcity/ the -global -fertiliser -crisis/ .
175. "The World Food Situation: An Overview," report prepared for Annual General Meeting of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Marrakech, December 6, 2005, www .ifpri .org/ pubs/ agm05/ jvbagm2005 .asp .
176. See Smil, "Phosphorus: Global Transfers."
177. People today have forgotten the millions who died of hunger in the towns and cities of Eu rope and Asia during and after World War II, when food supplies failed or were taken by the armies.
178. See, for example, Richard Kula, "Green Roofs and Maximizing Credits under the LEED Green Building System," Green Roof Infrastructure Monitor, Spring 2005, excerpted at greenroofs .org, www .greenroofs .org/ index .php ?option =com _content & task =view & id =26 & Itemid . =40 .
179. See "Sky Water Solution," Rolex Awards for Enterprise, 2002, http:// rolexawards .com/ en/ the -laureates/ makotomurase -the -project .jsp;
180. National Water Commission, Government of Australia, "Managed Aquifer Recharge," www .nwc .gov .au/ www/ html/ 521 -managed -aquifer -recharge .asp .
181. Christine Furedy, Virginia Maclaren, and Joseph Whitney, "Reuse of Waste for Food Production in Asian Cities: Health and Economic Perspectives," in Mustafa Koc, Rod MacRae, Luc J. A. Mougeot, and Jennifer Welsh, eds., For Hunger- proof Cities: Sustainable Urban Food Systems (Ottawa: IDRC Books, 2000), www .idrc .ca/ en/ ev -30609-201-1 -DO _TOPIC .html .
182. N. E. Means, C. J. Starbuck, R. J. Kremer, and L. W. Jett, "Effects of a Food Waste- Based Soil Conditioner on Soil Properties and Plant Growth," Compost Science and Utilization 13 (Spring 2005): 116-121.
183. R. Naidu, personal communication, October 10, 2008.
184. Smil, "Phosphorus: Global Transfers."
185. See Australian Artificial Photosynthesis Network, "Artificial Photosynthesis: A National Research Priority," August 21, 2002, http:// 74 .125 .47 .132/ search ?q =cache:Ras2DE6mqrsJ: www .dest .gov .au/ sectors/ research _sector/ policies _issues _reviews/ key _issues/ national _research _priorities/ documents/ rtf49p _rtf .htm %3Fwbc _purpose %3Dbasic %2523 %2523 %2523 %2523 %2523 +%22 %E2 %80 %9Cartificial +photosynthesis %E2 %80 %9D +food & cd =4 & hl =en & ct =clnk & gl =us .
186. Stuart Richey, interview by author, April 18, 2007.
187. Julian Anthony Koslow, The Silent Deep: The Discovery, Ecol ogy and Conservation of the Deep Sea (Sydney: University of New South Wales Press, 2007).
188. Richard Black, "," BBC News, November 2, 2006, http:// news .bbc .co .uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 6108414 .stm .
189. Finn Lynge, Arctic Wars: Animal Rights and Endangered Peoples (Hanover, N.H.: Dartmouth College Press, 1992).
190. Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, Food and Agriculture Or ga ni za - tion of the United Nations, "State of the World's Fisheries," 2006, table 1, www .fao .org/ docrep/ 009/ A0699e/ A0699E00.HTM;
191. Deakin University, "Our Pets' Gourmet Tastes Are Putting Pressure on Dwindling Fish Stocks," press release, August 25, 2008, www .deakin .edu .au/ news/ upload/ 250808petfoodindustry .pdf .
192. Cornelia Dean, "," New York Times, November 3, 2006, www .nytimes .com/ 2006/ 11/ 03/ science/ 03fish .html ?ex =1320210000 & en =1cbe6153c8bdfebd & ei =5090.
193. Worm and his colleagues reported their findings in "Impacts of Biodiversity Loss on Ocean Ecosystem Ser vices," Science, November 3, 2006, pp. 787-790.
194. Dean, "Study Sees 'Global Collapse.' "
195. Steven Murawski, Richard Methot, and Galen Tromble, letter to the editor, Science, June 1, 2007, p. 1281.
196. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, "The Sunken Billions: The Economic Justification for Fisheries Reform," World Bank, October 2008, http:// siteresources .worldbank .org/ EXTARD/ Resources/ 336681-1224775570533/ SunkenBillionsFinal .pdf;
197. Erik Stokstad, "Privatization Prevents Collapse of Fish Stock, Global Analysis Shows," Science, September 19, 2008, p. 1619.
198. Thor Lassen, "," Ocean Trust Fish Facts, n.d., www .oceantrust .org/ fishfacts .htm; "Scallop Comeback," Fish 15, no. 3 (September 2007), www .frdc .com .au/ pub/ news/ 153 .php ?article =1 .
199. "ScallopComeback,"Fish 15, no.3(September2007), www.frdc.com.au/pub/news/153.php?article=1
200. Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, "State of the World's Fisheries."
201. Meryl Williams, "," Lowy Institute, 2007, www .lowyinstitute .org/ Publication .asp ?pid =714 .
202. Joachim von Braun et al., "," brief prepared for the Annual General Meeting of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Nairobi, October 29, 2003, www .ifpri .org/ pubs/ speeches/ 20031029vonbraun .htm .
203. Based on data provided in Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, "State of the World's Fisheries."
204. Meryl Williams, personal communication, September 3, 2008.
205. Royal Society, "," Royal Society policy document 12/05, June 2005, p. vi, http:// royalsociety .org/ displaypagedoc .asp ?id =13539 .
206. Quoted in Julian Cribb, "Acid Oceans: The Silent Menace," Fish 16, no. 1 (March 2008), www .frdc .com .au/ pub/ news/ 161 .php ?article =28 .
207. Quoted in Cribb, "Acid Oceans."
208. Jeremy Jackson, "Ecological Extinction and Evolution in the Brave New Ocean," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105, supplement 1 (August 12, 2008): 11458-1165, www .pnas .org/ content/ 105/ suppl .1/ 11458 .full .
209. "Threat Level Rising," CIMMYT E-News 3, no. 12 (December 2006), www .cimmyt .org/ english/ wps/ news/ 2006/ dec/ wheatRust .htm; International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), "Dangerous Wheat Disease Jumps Red Sea," press release, January 11, 2007, www .cimmyt .org/ english/ wps/ nrs/ GRI _RustSpread .pdf .
210. InternationalMaizeandWheatImprovementCenter(CIMMYT),"DangerousWheatDiseaseJumpsRedSea,"pressrelease, January11,2007, www.cimmyt.org/english/wps/nrs/GRI_RustSpread.pdf
211. "The Wheat Rust Threat," CIMMYT E-News 3, no. 10 (October 2006), www .cimmyt .org/ english/ wps/ news/ 2006/ oct/ thewheatrust .htm .
212. To learn more about these unsung heroes who keep the world fed, see Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), "Scientists of the CGIAR," 2005, www .cgiar .org/ pdf/ pub _scientistsofthecgiar _2005 .pdf .
213. "Norman Borlaug," New World Encyclopedia, April 3, 2008, www .newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Norman_Borlaug?oldid=685200; Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb (New York: Ballantine Books, 1968), p. 1, recently cited in Paul Ehrlich, "The Return of the Population Bomb," Environmental Health News, July 14, 2009, http://www.environmentalhealthnews .org/ehs/editorial/the -return -of -the -population -bomb .
214. Paul Ehrlich, ThePopulationBomb(NewYork:BallantineBooks,1968), p.1, recentlycitedinPaulEhrlich,"TheReturnofthePopulationBomb,"EnvironmentalHealthNews, July14,2009, http://www.environmentalhealthnews.org/ehs/editorial/the-return-of-the-population-bomb
215. David A. Raitzer, executive summary of "Benefit- Cost Meta- Analysis of Investment in the International Agricultural Research Centres of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research," report prepared for Science Council Secretariat, Food and Agriculture Or ga ni za tion of the United Nations, 2003, p. xv.
216. Alex Evans, "The Feeding of Nine Billion: Global Food Security for the 21st Century," a Chatham House Report, Royal Institute for International Affairs, 2009, www .chathamhouse .org.uk/files/13179_r0109food.pdf .
217. For a discussion of the plight of soil science, for example, see Mary E. Collins, "Where Have All the Soils Students Gone?" Journal of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Education 37 (2008): 117-124.
218. Tom Lumpkin, address on global food price crisis, Canberra, Australia, September 2008.
219. CGIAR, "CGIAR Change Management: Working Group 4-Funding Mechanisms," report, September 15, 2008, www.cgiar.org/ changemanagement/pdf/wg4_final_paper_sept15_2008.pdf .
220. Philip G. Pardey et al., "," October 2007, report commissioned by the CGIAR Science Council as a background paper for the 2008 World Development Report of the World Bank, www.apec.umn.edu/faculty/ppardey/publications.html .
221. International Rice Research Institute, "Global Food Situation at a Crossroads," September 19, 2008, http://beta.irri.org/news/index.php/200809195067/press-releases/2008/Global-food-situationat-a-crossroads.html #top .
222. For her prepared remarks see Katherine Sierra, "Climate Change, Sustainable Agriculture and the Research Road Ahead," keynote address, pp. 4-8, in Agriculture in a Changing Climate, proceedings of the ATSE Crawford Fund Fourteenth Annual Conference, Canberra, September 3, 2008, www.crawfordfund.org/ events/pdfs/conference08proceedings.pdf .
223. FAO, Declaration of the World Summit on Food Security, Rome, November 16-18, 2009, p. 5, http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/Summit/Docs/Final_Declaration/WSFS09_Declaration.pdf .
224. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Agricultural Development Overview, 2009, www.gatesfoundation.org/agriculturaldevelopment/Pages/overview.aspx.
225. CGIAR, "CGIAR Change Management," p. 8.
226. Norman Borlaug, "The Green Revolution Revisited and the Road Ahead," Nobel anniversary lecture, September 26, 2002, p. 18, http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/articles/borlaug/borlaug-lecture.pdf.
227. See, for example, the Biological Initiative for Open Source, www.bios.net/daisy/bios/home.html.
228. See, for example, Hilary King, "Diabetes in Adults Is Now a Third World Problem," Journal of Community Eye Health 9, no. 20 (1996), www.cehjournal.org/0953-6833/09/jceh_09_20_051.html.
229. See Bruce Sundquist, "The Green Revolution, Fertilizers, and Pesticides," chap. 7 in The Earth's Carrying Capacity, June 2009, http://home.windstream.net/bsundquist1/index.html.
230. CIMMYT, "Wild Wheat Relatives Help Boost Ge ne tic Diversity," August 2004, www.cimmyt.org/english/wps/news/wild_wht.htm
231. Lumpkin, address on global food price crisis.
232. Dilantha Gunawardana, "Supercharging the Rice Engine," Rice Today 7, no. 3 (July-September 2008): 20-21, www.irri.org/publications/today/pdfs/7-3/RT_7-3_complete.pdf.
233. Borlaug, "Green Revolution Revisited," p. 2.
234. Agriculture and Consumer Protection Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, "Spotlight 2002: New Animal Disease Threats," June 2002, www.fao.org/Ag/magazine/0206sp1.htm.
235. See Rachel Oliver, "All about: Fossil Fuels," CNN.com/Asia, March 17, 2008, http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/03/16/eco.food.miles/.
236. Mario Giampetro and David Pimentel, "The Tightening Conflict: Population, Energy Use, and the Ecology of Agriculture," 1994, http://dieoff.org/page69.htm.
237. Colin Campbell and Jerry [Jeremy] Gilbert, "The Age of Oil- Beginning of the End?" presentation by Gilbert for Southern California Energy Conference "Our Energy Future," Los Angeles, March 10, 2006, www.scag.ca.gov/rcp/pdf/summit/Gilbert.pdf.
238. James Murray, "IEA Official: Peak Oil Is Closer Than We Think," businessgreen.com, August 4, 2009, www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2247241/iea-official-peak-oil-closer.
239. These figures are based on fertilizer consumption data for 1990 and 2002, available from FAOSTAT, an online databank maintained by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). See http://faostat.fao.org/site/422/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=422.
240. Richard Heinberg, "What Will We Eat as the Oil Runs Out?" Lady Eve Balfour Lecture, November 22, 2007, posted at Global Public Media, December 3, 2007, http://globalpublicmedia.com/richard_heinbergs_museletter_what_will_we_eat_as_the_oil_runs_out.
241. Henry Kindall and David Pimentel, "Constraints on the Expansion of Global Food Supply," Ambio 23 (1994): 198-205.
242. Kjell Aleklett, "Economy and Climate on the Path Down from the Peak of Oil and Gas," ScienceAlert, November 2, 2009, http://www.sciencealert.com.au/opinions/20090211-20143.html.
243. FAO, "Biofuels: Prospects, Risks and Opportunities," pt. 1 of The State of Food and Agriculture 2008 (Rome: FAO, 2008), www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0100e/i0100e00.htm.
244. Joachim von Braun, "The World Food Situation: New Driving Forces and Required Actions," International Food Policy Research Institute, December 2007, table 5, www.ifpri.org/pubs/fpr/pr18.pdf.
245. FAO, "Current World Fertilizer Trends and Outlook 2011/12," 2008, p. 6, ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/agll/docs/cwfto11.pdf.
246. Hamparsum, personal communication, September 26, 2008.
247. For a good review of these technologies, see A. C. Warden and V. S. Haritos, "Future Biofuels for Australia," Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, Government of Australia, 2008, https://rirdc.infoservices.com.au/downloads/08-117.pdf.
248. International Energy Agency, Biofuels for Transport: An International Perspective (Paris: IEA, 2004), fig. 6.1, www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2004/biofuels2004.pdf.
249. "Waste into Fuel," Rolex Awards, 2008, http://rolexawards.com/en/the-laureates/alexisbelonio-the-project.jsp.
250. David Strahan, "Biofuel without Tears- But How Much?" Global Public Media, February 21, 2008, http://globalpublicmedia.com/biofuel_without_tears.
251. Hartman, "A Promising Oil Alternative."
252. I knew a farmer who ran his electric fences and radio from batteries made out of a plastic bucket of fresh pig manure with two electrodes in it: there is no end to the inventiveness of farmers in this field.
253. Jodi Ziesemer, "Energy Use in Organic Food Systems," Natural Resources Management and Environment Department, FAO, 2007, www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/233069/energy-use-oa.pdf.
254. Raj Patel, "Commentary: Food from the Grassroots," Yes! Fall 2008, http://yesmagazine.org/article.asp?ID=2863.
255. Henry Saragih, "Via Campesina Statement at the UN General Assembly on the Global Food Crisis and the Right to Food," La Via Campesina, April 6, 2009, www.viacampesina.org/main_en/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=698&Itemid=27.
256. "Declaration of the Via Campesina Second Youth Assembly," October 21, 2008, www.viacampesina.org/main_en/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=619&Itemid=1.
257. John Williams, personal communication, November 2008.
258. Heinberg, "What Will We Eat?"
259. This section is based on David J. C. MacKay, Sustainable Energy- Without the Hot Air (Cambridge: UIT Cambridge, 2009), www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/sustainable/book/tex/cft.pdf. See the discussion that begins on p. 24.
260. Global Crop Diversity Trust, "Arctic Seed Vault," 2006, www.croptrust.org/main/arctic.php?itemid=211.
261. FAO, "Climate Change and Food Security."
262. FAO, introduction to "Climate Change and Food Security: A Framework Document," 2007, p. 1, ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/k2595e/k2595e00.pdf.
263. Fran Kelly, "Producing Food in a Changing Climate," Breakfast, ABC [Australia] Radio National, September 4, 2008, www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/stories/2008/2354924.htm.
264. G. C. Nelson, M. W. Rosegrant, et al., "Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation," International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., September 30, 2009, www.ifpri.org/publication/climate-change-impact-agriculture-and-costs-adaptation.
265. Campbell et al., "Age of Consequences," p. 8.
266. Mats Eriksson and Xu Jianchu, "Climate Change Impact on the Himalayan Water Tower," Stockholm Water Front, July 2008, p. 11, www.siwi.org/sa/node.asp?node=205.
267. Meteorological Office, United Kingdom, "Soil Moisture Content: Annual Map," www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/projections/soil_annual.html.
268. Campbell et al., "Age of Consequences," pp. 55, 71, 81.
269. See, for example, Alister Doyle, "Faster Ice Melt Seen as Spur to UN Climate Treaty," Reuters, April 28, 2009, http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKLS83314220090428.
270. Graeme Pearman, telephone interview by author, October 2008.
271. Campbell et al., "Age of Consequences," pp. 8-9.
272. FAO, "Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Challenges and Opportunities for Food Security," p. 9, paper prepared for High- Level Conferenceon World Food Security, Rome, June 2008, ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/meeting/013/k2545e.pdf.
273. Kaddambot Siddique, personal communication, October 2008.
274. See Charles C. Mann, "Our Good Earth," National Geographic, September 2008, pp. 101-6, http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/print/2008/09/soil/mann-text.
275. FAO, "Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation."
276. Paul B. Thompson, The Spirit of the Soil (New York: Routledge, 1995), pp. 120-26
277. Holistic Management International, "History of Holistic Management?" n.d., www.holisticmanagement.org/n7/What_is/what_is_07.html.
278. David Kemp, personal communication, November 17, 2008.
279. Klass Jan Kramer, Henri C. Moll, Sanderine Nonhebel, and Harry C. Wilting, "Green house Gas Emissions Related to Dutch Food Consumption," Energy Policy 27, no. 4 (April 1999): 203-16.
280. Garnett, "Cooking Up a Storm," summary report, p. 16, www.sehn.org/tccpdf/food%20climate%20change%20Summary_web.pdf.
281. Attributed to Robert Repetto in Shridath Ramphal, Our Country, Our Planet (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1992).
282. Derek Tribe, Feeding and Greening the World: The Role of International Agricultural Research (Wallingford, U.K.: CAB International and Crawford Fund for International Agricultural Research, 1994), p. 25.
283. Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (New York: Penguin, 2006), p. 498.
284. Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001).
285. Gwynne Dyer, Climate Wars (Melbourne: Scribe, 2008), p. 55. Note that world population passed 6.8 billion in early 2009.
286. Kirsten Garrett, "Background Briefing: Population Control," ABC Radio National [Australia], September 21, 2008.
287. A point made by Robin Baker in Sperm Wars: The Science of Sex (New York: Basic, 1996).
288. "Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity, 2005," updated as of October 2008 with data from National Footprints Account 2008 edition. To access this table, go to Global Footprint Network, "World Footprint: Do We Fit on the Planet?" www.footprintnetwork.org/download.php?id=509, scroll to the bottom, and click on "2008 Data Tables."
289. "Special Announcement: Living Planet Report 2006 Outlines Scenarios for Humanity's Future," Footprint Network News, newsletter of the Global Footprint Network, n.d., www.footprintnetwork.org/gfn_sub.php?content=global_footprint.
290. Tim Flannery, "Now or Never: A Sustainable Future for Australia?" Quarterly Essay, no. 31 (September 2008): 2, www.quarterlyessay.com/pdf/qePDF/QE31_Chapter_One_Extract.pdf.
291. See, for example, the case of China, as described in Mia MacDonald, "Opinion: Chinese Farms a Growing Challenge," Worldwatch Institute, October 20, 2008, www.worldwatch.org/node/5916?emc=el&m=160496&l=7&v=ea5c798974.
292. FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture 2007 (Rome: FAO, 2007), p. 123, ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a1200e/a1200e00.pdf.
293. Macdonald, "Chinese Farms a Growing Challenge."
294. Robin de Milano, "India 2020: Rise of the Elephant," Rabobank Special Scenario Studies, Utrecht, Netherlands, January 2007, p. 3.
295. Vaclav Smil, "Water News: Bad, Good and Virtual," American Scientist 96, no. 5 (September-October 2008): 406, 407.
296. Executive summary of Pew Commission on Industrial Farm Animal Production, "Putting Meat on the Table: Industrial Farm Animal Production in America," p. 17, Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, April 2008, www.ncifap.org/.
297. FAO, Declaration of the World Summit on Food Security, Rome, November 16-18, 2009, p. 1, http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/Summit/Docs/Final_Declaration/WSFS09_Declaration.pdf.
298. Alex Evans, "The Feeding of Nine Billion: Global Food Security for the 21st Century, a Chatham House Report," January 26, 2009, p. 6, www.humansecuritygateway.info/documents/CHATHAM_FeedingNineBillion_GlobalFoodSecurity21stCentury.pdf.
299. Klaus von Grebmer et al., "Global Hunger Index: The Challenge of Hunger 2008," International Food Policy Research Institute, October 2008, p. 23, www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ghi08.pdf.
300. See Andy Stoeckel, "High Food Prices: Causes, Implications and Solutions," Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, Government of Australia, publication no. 08/100, June 2008, https://rirdc.infoservices.com.au/downloads/08-100.pdf.
301. Author's neologism to describe the combined natural resources of the planet used for human food production.
302. FAO, "High- Level Conference on World Food Security: The Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy," n.d., www.fao.org/foodclimate/hlc-home/en/.
303. Group of Twenty, "Declaration of the Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy," November 15, 2008, Washington, D.C., www.g8.utoronto.ca/g20/2008-leaders-declaration-081115.html.
304. Andy Stoeckel and Hayden Fisher, "Policy Transparency: Why Does It Work? Who Does It Best?" Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, Government of Australia, July 2008, p. x, https://rirdc.infoservices.com.au/downloads/08-035.pdf.
305. Andy Stoeckel, interview by author, November 18, 2008.
306. Joachim von Braun, "The World Food Situation: An Overview," remarks prepared for Annual General Meeting of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Marrakech, Morocco, December 6, 2005, www.ifpri.org/pubs/agm05/jvbagm2005.asp.
307. George Monbiot, "Small Is Bountiful," Monbiot.com, June 10, 2008, www.monbiot.com/archives/2008/06/10/small-is-bountiful/.
308. See, for example, Monsanto, "Growing Hope in Africa," n.d., www.monsanto.com/responsibility/our_pledge/stronger_society/growing_hope_africa.asp.
309. Joachim von Braun, "Best Bets for Reducing Poverty and Hunger: Opportunities for Investment in Agricultural Research," International Food Policy Research Institute, press statement, October 10, 2008, www.ifpri.org/pressrel/2008/20081010.asp.
310. FAO, "Investment," How to Feed the World 2050, High- Level Expert Forum, Rome, October 12-13, 2009, www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/Issues_papers/HLEF2050_Investment.pdf.
311. Guy Healy, "Barrier Reef Lands in Google Net," Australian, February 11, 2009, www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25036440-12332,00.html?from=public_rss.
312. For U.S. death rates, see Ben Best, "Causes of Death," n.d., www.benbest.com/lifeext/causes.html#data_usa.
313. "Poor and Hungry Cannot Afford to Wait, World Bank President Says," World Bank press release, April 29, 2008, http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:21749013~pagePK:34370~piPK:34424~theSitePK:4607,00.html.
314. R. Engelman, at www.worldwatch.org/node/6257?emc=el&m=297190&l=4&v=ea5c798974.
315. See, for example, Evans, "Feeding of Nine Billion."
316. Ajay Vashee, keynote address to Australian Council of Agricultural Journalists, Canberra, November 11, 2008, www.ifap.org/en/newsroom/documents/AjayVashee_NationalPressClubAustralia.pdf.
317. Jackie Hughes et al., "Vegetables for More Food Using Less Resources," World Vegetable Center, September 24, 2008, p. 2, in the author's personal files.
318. For a good article on the need for a new global diet, see Moises Velasquez- Manoff, "Diet for a More- Crowded Planet: Plants," Christian Science Monitor, July 18, 2008, http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/07/18/diet-for-a-more-crowded-planet-plants/.
319. J. Lundqvist, C. de Fraiture, and D. Molden, "Saving Water: From Field to Fork- Curbing Losses and Wastage in the Food Chain," Stockholm International Water Institute Policy Brief, 2008, p. 30, www.siwi.org/documents/Resources/Policy_Briefs/PB_From_Filed_to_Fork_2008.pdf.
320. Norman E. Borlaug, "Protection of Biodiversity Key to Boosting Food Production," Global Crop Diversity Trust, 2006, www.croptrust.org/main/whatpeople.php.
321. Muhammad Yunus, Creating a World without Poverty: Social Business and the Future of Capitalism (New York: PublicAffairs, 2008), p. 56.