Managing uncertainty: A review of food system scenario analysis and modelling

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 365, Issue 1554, 2010, Pages 3049-3063

  Reilly, Michael ^a   Willenbockel, Dirk ^b  

^a Government Office for Science   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Food system; Futures; Integrated assessment; Modelling; Models; Scenarios

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP PRODUCTION; DATA SET; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; INTERNATIONAL TRADE; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION ESTIMATION; SUSTAINABILITY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 77957293758     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0141     Document Type: Review

References (59)

1. Alcamo, J. 2001 Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments. European Environment Agency. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
2. Alcamo, J., Doll, P., Henrichs, T., Kaspar, F., Lehner, B., Rosch, T. & Siebert, S. 2003 Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability. Hydrol. Sci. 48, 317-337. (10.1623/hysj.48.3.317. 45290) (Pubitemid 36704762)
3. Alexandratos, N. 2006 World agriculture: towards 2030/2050. Rome, Italy: FAO.
4. Allan, J. A. 1998 Virtual water: a strategic resource. Global solutions to regional deficits. Groundwater 36, 545-546.
5. Arnell, N. W., Livermore, M. J. L., Kovats, S., Levy, P. E., Nicholls, R., Parry, M. L. & Gaffin, S. R. 2004 Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRESstorylines. Global Environ. Change 14, 3-20. (doi 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003. 10.004) (Pubitemid 38215124)
6. Bohringer, C. & Loschel, A. 2006 Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment. Ecol. Econ. 60, 49-64. (doi 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.03.006) (Pubitemid 44574396)
7. Borjeson, L., Hojer, M., Dreborg, K., Ekvall, T. & Finnveden, G. 2005 Towards a user's guide to scenarios- a report on scenario types and scenario techniques. Stockholm, Sweden: Royal Institute of Technology.
8. Boserup, E. 1965 The conditions of agricultural growth: the economics of agrarian change under population pressure. London, UK: Earthscan.
9. Carpenter, S. R., Pingali, P. L., Bennett, E. M. & Zurek, M. B. 2005 Ecosystems and human well-being: findings of the Scenarios Working Group of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Series, vol. 2. Washington, DC: Island Press.
10. Chaumet, J. et al. 2009 Agrimonde: Scenarios and challenges for feeding the world in 2050. Paris: CIRAD-INRA.
11. Christensen, V. & Walters, C. J. 2004 Ecopath with Ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecol. Model. 172, 109-139. (doi 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2003.09.003) (Pubitemid 38231622)
12. Cumming, G., Alcamo, J., Sala, O., Swart, R., Bennett, E. M. & Zurek, M. 2005 Are existing global scenarios consistent with ecological feedbacks? Ecosystems 8, 143-152. (doi 10.1007/s10021-004-0075-1) (Pubitemid 41175279)
13. de Fraiture, C. et al. 2007 Looking ahead to 2050: scenarios of alternative investment approaches. In Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture (ed. D. Molden), pp. 91-145. London, UK: Earthscan.
14. Döös, B. 2002 The problem of predicting global food production. Ambio 31, 417-424.
15. Easterling, W. E. et al. 2007 Food, fibre and forest products. In Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden and C. E. Hanson), pp. 273-313. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
16. Ericksen, P. J. 2008 Conceptualizing food systems for global environmental change research. Global Environ. Change 18, 234-245. (doi 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.09.002) (Pubitemid 351246727)
17. Ewert, F. et al. 2009 A methodology for enhanced flexibility of integrated assessment in agriculture. Environ. Sci. Policy 12, 546-561. (doi 10.1016/j.envsci.2009.02.005)
18. Evans, L. T. 1998 Feeding the ten billion: plants and population growth. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
19. Fischer, G., Frohberg, K., Keyzer, M. A. & Parikh, K. S.1988 Linked national models: a tool for international policy analysis. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer.
20. Fischer, G., van Velthuizen, H., Shah, M. & Nachtergaele, F. 2002 Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century: methodology and results. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
21. Funtowicz, S. O. & Ravetz, J. R. 1990 Uncertainty and quality in science for policy. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer.
22. Garb,Y., Pulver, S. & VanDeveer,S.D.2008 Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: towards a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modelling. Environ. Res. Lett. 3, 045015. (doi 10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045015)
23. Griffon, M. 2006 Nourir la planete-pour une revolution doublement verte. Paris, Italy: Odile Jacob.
24. Hansen, J. E. 2007 Scientific reticence and sea level rise. Environ. Res. Lett. 2, 024002. (doi 10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002)
25. Hazell, P. & Wood, S. 2008 Drivers of change in global agriculture. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363, 495-515. (doi 10.1098/rstb.2007.2166) (Pubitemid 351437354)
26. Hoekstra, A. Y. & Chapagain, A. L. 2008 Globalization of water: sharing the planet's freshwater resources. Oxford, UK: Blackwell.
27. IMAGE 2001 The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the SRESscenarios. (CD-ROM). Bilthoven, Utrecht: RIVM.
28. Kahn, H. 1960 On thermonuclear war. Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press.
29. Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. 1967 The year 2000: a framework forspeculation on the next thirty-three years. New York, NJ:Macmillan.
30. Kainuma, M., Matsuoka, Y. & Morita, T. 2002 Climate policyassessment. Tokyo, Japan: Springer.
31. Lempert, R. J., Groves, D. G., Popper, S. W. & Bankes, S. C.2006 A general analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios. Manage. Sci. 52, 514-528. (doi 10.1287/mnsc.1050.0472)
32. Long, S.P., Ainsworth, E.A.,Leakey, A. D.B., Nosberger,J. & Ort, D. R. 2006 Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations. Science 312, 1918-1921. (doi 10.1126/science.1114722) (Pubitemid 43993712)
33. McCalla, A. F. & Revoredo, C. L. 2001 Prospects for globalfood security: a critical appraisal of past projections and predictions. In Food, agriculture, and the environment discussion paper 35. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
34. Malthus, T. R. 1798 An essay on the principle of population. London, UK: J. Johnson.
35. Mitchell, R. B., Clark, W. C., Cash, D. W. & Dickson, N. M.(eds) 2006 Global environmental assessments: information and influence. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
36. Moss, R. H. et al. 2010 The next generation of scenarios forclimate change research and assessment. Nature 463, 747-756. (doi 10.1038/nature08823)
37. Nelson, G. C. et al. 2009 Climate change impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
38. Parry, M. L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M. & Fischer, G. 2004 Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio economic scenarios. Global Environ. Change 14, 53-67. (doi 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008) (Pubitemid 38215127)
39. Parson, E. A. 2008 Useful global-change scenarios: currentissues and challenges. Environ. Res. Lett. 3, 045016.(doi10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045016).
40. Parson, E. A., Burkett, V., Fisher-Vanden, K., Keith, D.,Mearns, L., Pitcher, H., Rosenzweig, C. & Webster, M.2007 Global-change scenarios: their development and use. Washington, DC: US Climate Change Science Program.
41. Pretty, J. N., Noble, A. D., Bossio, D., Dixon, J., Hine, R. E., Penning de Vries, F. W. T. & Morison, J. I. L. 2006 Resource-conserving agriculture increases yields in developing countries. Environ. Sci. Technol. 40, 1114-1119. (doi 10.1021/es051670d) (Pubitemid 43271423)
42. Robinson, J. B. 1992 Of maps and territories: the use and abuse of socioeconomic modelling in support of decision making. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 42, 147-164. (doi 10.1016/0040-1625(92)90005-E)
43. Rotmans, J. & van Asselt, M. B. A. 2001 Uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling: a labyrinthic path. Integr. Assess. 2, 43-55. (doi 10.1023/A:1011588816469)
44. Rubin, J. 2009 Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller: what the price of oil means for the way we live. London, UK: Virgin Books.
45. Schoemaker, P. J. H. 1993 Multiple scenario development: its conceptual and behavioural foundation. Strateg. Manage.J. 14, 193-213. (doi 10.1002/smj.4250140304)
46. Schwartz, P. 1991 Theart of the longview: planning for the future in an uncertain world. Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons.
47. Shiklomanov, I. 2000 Appraisal and assessment of world water resources. Water Int. 25, 11-32. (doi 10.1080/02508060008686794)
48. Swart, R. J., Raskin, P. & Robinson, J. 2004 The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environ. Change 14, 137-146.
49. Taleb, N. N. 2007 The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable. London, UK: Penguin.
50. Thompson, J. & Scoones, I. 2009 Addressing the dynamics of agri-food systems: an emerging agenda for social science research. Environ. Sci. Policy 12, 386-397. (doi 10.1016/j.envsci.2009.03.001)
51. UNEP 2007 Global Environmental Outlook 4. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environmental Programme.
52. Uthes, S., Fricke, K., König, H., Zander, P., van Ittersum, M., Sieber, S., Helming, K., Piorr, A. & Müller, K. In press. Policy relevance of three integrated-assessment tools- a comparison with specific reference to agricultural policies. Ecol. Model.
53. van der Heijden, K. 2005 Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation, 2nd edn. Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons.
54. Wack, P. 1985a Scenarios: unchartered waters ahead. Harvard Bus. Rev. 63, 72-89.
55. Wack, P. 1985b Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harvard Bus. Rev. 63, 139-150.
56. Wells, M. P., Grossman, D. & Navajas, H. 2006 Terminal evaluation of the UNEP/GEF Project 'Millennium Ecosystem Assessment'. Nairobi, Kenya: UNEP.
57. Willenbockel, D. 2009 Global energy and environmental scenarios: implications for development policy. DIE Discussion Paper 8/2009. Bonn, Germany: German Development Institute.
58. World Bank 2008. Rising food prices and policy options. See http://siteresources.worldbank.org/NEWS/Resources/risingfoodprices- backgroundnote-apr08.pdf.
59. Zurek, M. B. & Henrichs, T. 2007 Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 74, 1282-1295. (doi 10.1016/j.techfore.2006.11.005) (Pubitemid 47338193)