Population growth: What do Australian voters want?

People and Place

Volumn 18, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 49-64

  Betts, Katharine ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

IMMIGRATION; POPULATION GROWTH; QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY; VOTING BEHAVIOR;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 77956995847     PISSN: 10394788     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (78)

1. Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Catalogue no. 3105.0.65.001
2. Sources for data: Australian Demographic Statistics, Time series, March 2008, ABS, Catalogue no.3101.0 for 1982 to 2007;
3. Australian Demographic Statistics, June 2009, ABS December 2009, catalogue no. 3101.0 for 2008-2009 figures.
4. AuSSA is managed by the Australian Social Science Data Archives at the Australian National University. It is based on a large random sample drawn from the electoral role. Respondents are sent a printed questionnaire together with a return envelope. Further details are proved below.
5. Recent research suggests that the TFR may involve an undercount, as some parents delay registering a birth, or in some cases do not register it at all. See Births Australia 2005, Catalogue No.3301.0, ABS, Canberra, 2006
6. Deaths Australia 2008, Catalogue No. 3302.0, ABS, Canberra, 2009, p. 37
7. Natural increase was 161,769 in 1972, but declined thereafter. See Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008, op. cit.
8. For details on how NOM is calculated see Australian Demographic Statistics, September 2009, March 2010, ABS, catalogue no. 3010.0, pp. 42-43, 52.
9. Data on New Zealanders are from accessed 19 March 2010;
10. those on international students are from accessed 19 March 2010;
11. and those on 457 visas are from Department of Immigration and Citizenship, Annual Report 2008-2009: Outcome One, p. 67.
12. See 'Government cuts migration program', 16 March 2009 accessed 16 March 2010.
13. Figures on the permanent migration program for 1991 on been obtained from the sources named at Table 2 and, for 1960 to 1990, from the Immigration Department's annual reports. I have been unable to find a consistent series prior to 1960. Historical data published by the Department suggest an earlier high of 150,000 in 1952. See Department of Immigration and Citizenship, Immigration to Australia During the 20th Century-Historical Impacts on Immigration Intake, Population Size and Population Composition-A Timeline, nd accessed November 2008
14. C. Jackman, Inside Kevin O7: The People, the Plan, the Prize, Melbourne University Press, Melbourne, 2008, p. 89
15. C. Jackman, Inside Kevin O7: The People, the Plan, the Prize, ibid., pp. 101-102, 115, 153-155
16. See Kevin Rudd, 'I have a plan for Australia's future' accessed 3 October 2008
17. See accessed 9 November 2008.
18. It also said that a Labor Government would end the temporary protection visa system for those undocumented asylum seekers who successfully applied for refugee status, giving them a permanent visa. See accessed 3 October 2008.
19. All election speeches were removed from the ALP website later in October, 2008. See J. Lyons, 'Speeches wiped off ALP website', The Australian, 29 October 2008, p. 3.
20. '[On immigration and multiculturalism] Kevin Rudd has, as on other issues, kept a low profile and told his shadow immigration minister to do the same'. A. Wood, 'Multiculturalism becomes poison for social capital', The Australian, 26 September 2007, p. 16
21. Kevin Rudd Campaign launch speech-Brisbane, 14 November 2007 accessed 4 October 2008
22. See K. Betts, The Great Divide: Immigration Politics in Australia, Duffy and Snellgrove, Sydney, 1999, pp. 193-194, 198, 211, 219-223, 225, 249, 275-276.
23. Australia to 2050: Future Challenges (Third Intergenerational Report), Department of Treasury, Canberra, 2010, pp. 7, viii
24. Intergenerational Report 2007 (Second Intergenerational Report), Department of Treasury, Canberra, 2007, p. 15
25. Intergenerational Report 2002-2003 (First Intergenerational Report), Department of Treasury, Canberra, 2002, pp. 21-22
26. They were announced on 18 September 2009 as foreshadowed in D. Uren, 'Forecast revised as population to hit 35 million', The Australian, 18 September 2009, p. 1.
27. Quoted in T. Colebatch, 'City to top 7 million, but at what cost?', The Age, 23 October 2009, p. 1. While the projection was for 35.9 million in 2050 most speakers have rounded it down to 35 million.
28. K. O'Brien, 'Prime Minister Kevin Rudd joins The 7.30 Report', 7.30 report, ABC TV (transcript), 22 October 2009
29. S. Lane, 'Labor MP calls for population cap', Australian Broadcasting Corporation Transcripts, 12 November 2009 [downloaded from Factiva, 13 November 2009].
30. See also K. Thomson, 'Population reform-meeting the challenges', People and Place, vol.17, no.4, 2009, pp. 55-61.
31. Quoted in A. Sharp, 'Population fear is nonsense: Tanner', The Age, 13 November 2009, p. 3
32. Interviewed by Ashley Hall on 'AM', ABC Radio National (transcript), 30 November 2009
33. Quoted in J. Drape, 'PM's support for "big Australia" confusing: Labor MP', Australian Associated Press General News, 29 November 2009
34. See K. Betts and M. Gilding, 'The growth lobby and Australia's immigration policy', People and Place, vol.14, no.4, 2006, pp. 40-52.
35. H. Triguboff, 'Relax rules to provide new homes', The Australian, 7 January 2010, p. 12;
36. A. Sinodinos, 'The more of us the merrier', The Australian, 24 September 2009, p. 12;
37. S. Eslake, 'Populate or stagnate', The Age, 10 March 2010, p. 14;
38. C. Berg, 'Give or take a million, there's nothing to fear', The Sydney Morning Herald, 19 December 2009, p. 9
39. Meriton's donations for 2005-2006 to 2008-09 are listed on the Australian Electoral Commission's website. See documents D9082, D8481, D8287 and D8074. But these sums represent something of a falling off. In the five years to June 2006 Meriton donated $800,000 to the Labor and Liberal parties. See A. Clennell, 'Judgment day for Triguboff's dystopia', The Sydney Morning Herald, 12 October 2006, p. 3.
40. Quoted in A. Clennell, 'Triguboff: let's trade trees for homes', The Sydney Morning Herald, 11 October 2006, p. 3
41. B. Salt, 'Is the property industry too timid?', Propertyoz.com.au, 27 January 2010 accessed 6 February 2010
42. Quoted in P. Austin, 'Perils of a bigger footprint', The Age, 29 October 2009, p. 21.
43. For the 35,000 a year statement, see: 'We must debate migrant intake: Andrews', The West Australian, December 11 2009, p. 5. Andrews also drew attention to the tendency of some migrant groups to settle in ethnic enclaves. See S. Maiden, 'Kevin Andrews calls for debate on Muslim enclaves', The Australian Online, 29 October 2009 accessed 29 October 2009.
44. See S. Maiden, 'Kevin Andrews calls for debate on Muslim enclaves', The Australian Online, 29 October 2009 accessed 29 October 2009.
45. D. Macken, 'Big numbers don't add up', Australian Financial Review, 21 November 2009, p. 29
46. J. Morcombe, 'Smith: We can't cope with 40 million', Manly Daily, 27 January 2010, p. 15
47. The first edition was reviewed in People and Place, vol.17, no.1, 2009, pp. 76-80.
48. M. Moore, 'New party wants population debate', The Sydney Morning Herald, 8 February 2010, p. 4.
49. At that stage the party had the working title of The 23 Million Party: M. Holland, 'New party aims to limit population growth', Daily Telegraph, 2 February 2010, p. 7. The party's web site is at .
50. K. O'Brien 'The population debate: problems, potential solutions and the need for change', 7.30 Report (transcripts), ABC TV, 26 to 29 January 2010
51. K. O'Brien, 'Australian Prime Minister discusses on population growth', 7.30 Report (transcript) ABC TV, 29 January 2010
52. J. Saulwick, 'Libs back Greens call for inquiry into "big Australia"', The Sydney Morning Herald, 16 March 2010, p. 4
53. Australian Conservation Foundation, 'Population growth a threat to biodiversity-media release', 23 March 2010 accessed 30 March 2010
54. See for example M. Goot, 'Migrant numbers, Asian immigration and multiculturalism: trends in the polls, 1943-1998: Statistical Appendix', Australian Multiculturalism in a New Century: Towards Inclusiveness, National Multicultural Advisory Council, Canberra, 1999.
55. M.-A. Toy and M. Grattan, 'Poll shows deep unease on 35 million people by 2049', The Age, 10 November 2009, p. 2. The sample was 1400 voters.
56. See K. Betts, Ideology and Immigration: Australia 1976 to 1987, Melbourne University Press, Melbourne, 1988, pp. 53-62.
57. C. Johnstone and N. Gregg, 'Shut the gate-residents want cap on population', The Courier-Mail, 7 December 2009, pp. 1, 2
58. Essential Report, EMC, 15 February 2010, p. 8. Notes on methods (p. 9) say that EMC have an online panel of 109,500. From this they invite around 7000 to 8000 to participate in their weekly survey and normally get a response rate of around 1000 .
59. Essential Report, EMC, 1 March 2010, p. 7
60. This method of opinion polling is new but it is becoming quite widely used. For example the respected YouGov polls in the United Kingdom employ it. See .
61. A. Evans, The Australian Survey of Social Attitudes, 2009 [Computer file], Canberra: Australian Social Science Data Archive, The Australian National University, 2010
62. There were in fact two surveys, version A and version B. The CPUR's population questions were on both versions so as to maximise sample size. The response rate for version A was 37 per cent and for Version B 33 per cent.
63. See for example debate on Immigration Policies and Australia's Population (a Green Paper), Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra, 1977, in the federal parliament in March 1977.
64. See B. Birrell, E. Healy and T. F. Smith, 'Labor's education and training strategy: building on false assumptions', People and Place, vol.16, no.1, 2008, pp. 40-54;
65. B. Birrell, D. Edwards, I. Dobson and T. F. Smith, 'The myth of too many university students', People and Place, vol.13, no. 1, 2005, pp. 63-70.
66. See Immigration Policies and Australia's Population (a Green Paper), 1977, op. cit., pp. 75-81, 74, 85-86, 88, 91-93.
67. See 'Govt bends the rules to woo migrants', Financial Review, 18 September 1978.
68. See S. Martin, 'Industry plea on migrants', The Advertiser, 7 July 2009, p. 9;
69. P. Taylor, 'Business urges Evans not to cut immigration intake', The Australian, 4 November 2008, p. 2;
70. P. Maley, 'Migrants to keep coming', The Australian, 15 December 2008, p. 2.
71. B. Birrell and B. Perry, 'Immigration policy changes and the international student industry', People and Place, vol.17, no.2, 2009, pp. 64-80;
72. B. Birrell and E. Healy, 'How are skilled migrants doing?', People and Place, vol.16, no. 1 (supplement), 2008, pp. 1-19
73. See B. Delaney, 'Murky agenda behind this green debate', The Age, 27 January 2009, p. 11;
74. S. Butler and I. Angus, 'People are not pollution: population limits are not green', Green Left Online, 31 January 2010 accessed 30 March 2010.
75. K. Betts, 'Dissatisfaction with immigration grows', People and Place, vol.16, no.3, 2008, Table 1, p. 21
76. See K. Betts, 'Immigration and public opinion: understanding the shift', People and Place, vol.10, no.4, 2002, pp. 24-37.
77. See Betts, 2008, op. cit.
78. See K. Betts, 'People and parliamentarians: the great divide', People and Place, vol.12, no.2, 2004, Table 2, p. 71, Table 5, p. 77.