Crude days ahead? Oil and the resource curse in Sudan

African Affairs

Volumn 109, Issue 437, 2010, Pages 617-636

  Patey, Luke A ^a  

^a DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES   (Denmark)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CIVIL WAR; CORRUPTION; CRUDE OIL; ENERGY RESOURCE; ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION; PEACEKEEPING; POLITICAL ECONOMY; POLITICAL RELATIONS;

KHARTOUM [SUDAN]; SUDAN;

EID: 77956924898     PISSN: 00019909     EISSN: 14682621     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adq043     Document Type: Article

References (115)

1. J. S Morrison and J. G. Cooke, 'Sudan's oil sector' (background paper, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2002).
2. 'Sudan President refuses to budge over oil region', Reuters, (18 November 2007).
3. 'South Sudan's Kiir accuses "enemies of peace" of instigating chaos', Sudan Tribune, 18 June 2009
4. Human Rights Watch, Sudan, Oil and Human Rights (HRW, New York, NY, 2003).
5. European Coalition on Oil Development in Sudan, 'Oil development in Upper Nile, Sudan' (ECOS report, 2006)
6. Norway began petroleum cooperation with Sudan in 2006, providing capacity building, technical advice, and consultation on implementing oil revenue sharing
7. 'Sudan's peace partners close to agreeing on South Sudan referendum bill', Sudan Tribune, 13 June 2009
8. Jedrzej George Frynas, 'Corporate and state responses to anti-oil protests in the Niger Delta', African Affairs 100, 398 (2001), pp. 27-54
9. Philippe Le Billon, 'Angola's political economy of war', African Affairs 100, 398 (2001), pp. 55-80
10. Scott Pegg, 'Can policy intervention beat the resource curse? Evidence from the Chad-Cameroon pipeline project', African Affairs 105, 418 (2006), pp. 1-25
11. Jedrzej George Frynas, 'The oil boom in Equatorial Guinea', African Affairs 103, 413 (2004), pp. 527-46.
12. Michael L. Ross, 'The political economy of the resource curse', World Politics 51, 2 (1999), pp. 297-322.
13. Michael L. Ross, 'What do we know about natural resources and civil war?', Journal of Peace Research 41, 3 (2004), pp. 337-56.
14. Scott Pegg, 'Briefing: Chronicle of a death foretold', African Affairs 108, 431 (2009), pp. 311-20, p. 318.
15. The international dimension as another level of analysis is not covered, but see Nicholas Shaxson, 'Oil, corruption and the resource curse', International Affairs 83, 6 (2007), pp. 1123-40.
16. International Monetary Fund, 'Sudan, Country Report No. 08/174' (IMF, 2008), p. 15
17. IMF, ' Sudan, Country Report No. 09/218' (IMF, 2009), p. 17.
18. IMF, 'World Economic Outlook Database', (18 November 2009).
19. Luke A. Patey, 'State rules: oil companies and armed conflict in Sudan", Third World Quarterly 28, 5 (2007), pp.997-1016.
20. Luke A. Patey, 'Against the Asian tide: the Sudan divestment campaign', Journal of Modern African Studies 47, 4 (2009), pp. 551-73.
21. IMF, Sudan Country Reports, 2008; 2009
22. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), 'Sudan: Country Profile, 2009' (EIU, London, 2009), p. 28.
23. IMF Country Reports, 2008
24. 2009. All figures in US dollars.
25. EIU, 'Sudan: Country Profile, 2009', p. 18.
26. IMF, Sudan Country Reports, 2008; 2009
27. IMF, 'Sudan, Country Report No. 08/174' (IMF, 2008) p. 32.
28. UNDP Sudan, (19 November 2009).
29. US Energy Information Administration, 'Europe Brent Spot Price', (18 June 2009).
30. IMF Country Reports, 2008; 2009
31. Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (GOSS), 'Approved Budget 2010' (MFEP, 2010)
32. 'Oil revenue in Sudan slashed by 60% in 2009: GoSS', Sudan Tribune, 2 March 2010
33. S. M. Ali Abbas, K. Moriyama, and A. Naseer, 'Fiscal adjustment in Sudan: size, speed, and composition', IMF Working Paper, WP/10/79 (IMF, 2010), p. 41.
34. 'South Sudan Nile Commercial Bank out of cash: official', Sudan Tribune, 24 April 2009
35. BP, 'BP statistical review of world energy' (BP, London, 2009)
36. Ministry of Finance and National Economy (Sudan), (18 November 2009).
37. Sudan Petroleum Unit, Ministry of Finance and National Economy, 'Oil production monthly - year 2008', (18 June 2010).
38. ECOS, 'Sudan, whose oil? Sudan's oil industry: facts and analysis' (European Coalition on Oil in Sudan, 2008), p. 18.
39. EIU, 'Sudan: Country Profile, 2009', pp. 22-3
40. Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (GOSS) (30 March 2010).
41. 'Sudan reports sharp oil revenue drop for November', Sudan Tribune, 13 January 2009
42. 'Interview: Sudan oil output falls short of estimates - minister', Reuters-India, 25 October 2009
43. EIU, 'Sudan Country Report', (EIU, London, March 2010), p. 8.
44. Ali Abbas et al., 'Fiscal adjustment', p. 27.
45. Gunnar Zachrisen, 'Sudan vil bli olje-importør', (31 March 2010).
46. Michael Rodgers, 'PFC strategic studies, Sudan: projected oil production and revenues' (PFC, 2002), (15 July 2010).
47. Lundin Petroleum AB, (19 June 2009)
48. 'OVL to quit in Sudan', Times of India, 27 April 2009
49. Interview, company managers, Khartoum, 30 October 2007
50. 'Sudan police crack down on protests - witness', Reuters, 30 August 2006
51. Interview, government official, Khartoum, 4 September 2006
52. Interview, former oil official, London, 25 January 2008
53. Personal communication, oil analyst, 28 January 2009
54. World Bank, 'Sudan Public Expenditure Review Synthesis Report', Report No 41840-SD (World Bank, 2007), p. 23.
55. See Abda Yahia El Mahdi, 'Budget analysis for pro-poor spending' (Unicons Consultancy Ltd and UNDP Sudan, 2008)
56. World Bank, 'Sudan Public Expenditure Review Synthesis Report'
57. International Crisis Group (ICG), 'Sudan: breaking the Abyei deadlock', Africa Briefing No. 47 (ICG, 2007), p. 7.
58. Personal communication, non-governmental organization, 10 February 2009
59. Edward Thomas, 'Against the gathering storm: securing Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement' (Report, Chatham House, London, 2009), p. 26.
60. ICG, 'Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement: the long road ahead', Africa Report No. 106 (ICG, 2006), p. 7.
61. ICG, 'Sudan: breaking the Abyei deadlock', p. 14, n. 55.
62. Interview, former oil official, London, 2 July 2008
63. Global Witness, 'Fuelling mistrust: the need for transparency in Sudan's oil industry' (Report, Global Witness, 7 September 2009)
64. ICG, 'Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement: beyond the crisis', Africa Briefing No. (ICG, 13 March 2008) p. 13.
65. United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS), 'Black gold', In Sudan magazine (UNMIS, July 2009) p. 5.
66. 'Few surprises in Sudan's new government', Sudan Tribune, 15 June 2010
67. Thomas, 'Against the gathering storm', p. 19.
68. ICG, 'Sudan: breaking the Abyei deadlock', pp. 7-9.
69. 'Sudan's SPLM threatens to refer Abyei row to Hague', Platts Oilgram News, 28 July 2009
70. UNMIS, 'Black gold'; UNMIS, CPA Monitor 5, 47 (UNMIS, 2009)
71. 'Sudan says 80% of North-South border demarcation complete', Sudan Tribune, 5 May 2010
72. Small Arms Survey, 'Conflicting priorities: GoSS security challenges and recent responses', Report No. 14 (Small Arms Survey, Geneva, 2009).
73. 'Renegade militia flees South Sudan oil state - army', Reuters, (9 June 2010).
74. Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (GOSS), 'GOSS oil transfers', (31 March 2010)
75. EIU, 'Sudan Country Report' (March 2010), p. 12.
76. EIU, 'Sudan, Country Profile 2008' (EIU, London, 2008), p. 28.
77. Thomas, 'Against the gathering storm', p. 27.
78. Sudan Mirror 5, 2 (24 December-5 January 2009)
79. See L. N. Moro, 'War and peace transition' in Oil, Conflict and Displacement in Sudan (DPhil thesis, Oxford University, 2008) p. 286
80. 'South Sudan rescues Nile Commercial Bank, restructures management', Sudan Tribune, 27 August 2009
81. 'Lam Akol nominated for Southern Sudan presidency', Sudan Tribune. 20 November 2009.
82. ICG, 'Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement', p. 8.
83. ICG, 'The Khartoum-SPLM Agreement: Sudan's uncertain peace', ICG Africa Report No. 96 (ICG, 2005), pp. 19-20.
84. The National Petroleum Commission, Rapporteur's Office (NPC, 2007)
85. ASCOM, (29 November 2009)
86. 'Sudan oil body endorses Ascom and discusses Total concession', Sudan Tribune, 26 August 2009
87. Global Witness, 'Fuelling mistrust', p. 46.
88. ICG, 'Sudan's Southern Kordofan problem: the next Darfur?', ICG Africa Report No. 145 (ICG, 2008), p. 20.
89. 'Southern Sudan: oil investor banking on sucession?', Ratio Magazine (Nairobi), 3 June 2009
90. 'South Sudan's Matip says SPLA plotted attack on his guards', Sudan Tribune, 12 October 2009
91. 'Southern leaders compete for a new state', Africa Confidential 51, 3 (5 February 2010)
92. ICG, 'Sudan: breaking the Abyei deadlock', p. 3
93. Thomas, 'Against the gathering storm', p. 30.
94. 'Sudan nomads say protest against oil ruling', Reuters, 28 July 2009
95. ICG, 'Sudan's Southern Kordofan problem', pp. 15-17.
96. 'Unity State MPs in South Sudan parliament lash back at Governor Deng', Sudan Tribune, 27 January 2008
97. UNMIS, 'Black gold', p. 6
98. ECOS, 'Sudan, whose oil?', p. 33.
99. 'Sudan Unity state governor says more oil share post-2011', Sudan Tribune, 19 August 2009
100. Telephone interview, international organization official, 30 January 2009
101. USAID Sudan, 'Sudan Transitional Environment Program: scoping statement for a programmatic environmental assessment of oil exploration and production activities in Southern Sudan' (USAID Sudan, 2007) pp. 10-11.
102. Edward Thomas, 'Decisions and deadlines: a critical year for Sudan' (Report, Chatham House, London, 2010) p. 12.
103. Unpublished consultancy review of environmental measures in existing oil contracts
104. UNEP, 'Synthesis report, Sudan: post-conflict environmental assessment' (United Nations Environment Programme, 2007) p. 149.
105. Interview, oil consultant, Khartoum, 2 September 2006
106. ECOS, 'Sudan, whose oil?', p. 13.
107. Unpublished report from international organization
108. Personal communication, oil consultant, 27 January 2009
109. J. Tellnes, 'The unexpected deal: oil and the IGAD process' in M. Simmons and P. Dixon (eds), Peace by Piece: Addressing Sudan's conflict (Accord, an International Review of Peace Initiatives 18, pp. 38-41) (Concordis International, London, 2006).
110. 'Sudan's Bashir says he will be the first to recognize independent South', Sudan Tribune, 20 January 2010
111. 'Japan group eyes pipeline plan', Financial Times, 4 March 2010
112. EIU, 'Sudan Country Report' (March 2010), p. 13.
113. 'South Sudan aims to overhaul foreign oil deals', Reuters, (23 March 2010).
114. Sherief El-Tuhami, 'Oil in Sudan, its discovery and industrial development' in Peter Gwynvay Hopkins (ed.), The Kenana Handbook of Sudan (London, Kegan Paul, 2007), p. 666.
115. Wood Mackenzie, 'Sudan Country Overview', October 2007, p. 19.