Stimulating investment in energy materials and technologies to combat climate change: An overview of learning curve analysis and niche market support

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Volumn 368, Issue 1923, 2010, Pages 3469-3483

  Foxon, Timothy J ^a  

^a London School of Economics and Political Science   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change mitigation; Cost reductions; Investment; Learning curve

Indexed keywords

COST REDUCTION; ENERGY CONVERSION; FUEL CELLS; FUEL STORAGE; GAS EMISSIONS; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GASES; HYDROGEN STORAGE; SOLAR ENERGY; SOLAR POWER GENERATION; TECHNOLOGY;

CARBON EMISSIONS; CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION; COST IMPROVEMENTS; ENERGY MATERIALS; ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES; HIGH RATE; LEARNING CURVE ANALYSIS; LEARNING CURVES; NEW TECHNOLOGIES; NICHE MARKETS; NUCLEAR POWER; PHOTOVOLTAICS; POLICY MEASURES; PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR; SUPER CAPACITOR; UNIT COST;

INVESTMENTS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECONOMICS; ENERGY CONSERVATION; ENERGY RESOURCE; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; EUROPE; HUMAN; MASS COMMUNICATION; METHODOLOGY; POLICY; REVIEW; STATISTICAL MODEL; UNITED KINGDOM; UNITED STATES;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF ENERGY RESOURCES; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION; ENERGY-GENERATING RESOURCES; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; EUROPE; GREAT BRITAIN; HUMANS; MODELS, ECONOMIC; PUBLIC POLICY; UNITED STATES;

EID: 77955488614     PISSN: 1364503X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0106     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Anderson, D. 2006 Costs and finance of abating carbon emissions in the energy sector. Background paper for the Stern Review. Available at http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/ stern-review-supporting-documents.htm.
2. Anderson, K. & Bows, A. 2008 Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emissions trends. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 366, 3863-3882. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0138)
3. Arrow, K. 1962a The economic implications of learning by doing. Rev. Econ. Stud. 29, 155-173.
4. Arrow, K. 1962b Economic welfare and the allocation of resources for invention. In The rate and direction of inventive activity (ed. R. Nelson), pp. 609-625. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
5. Barker, T., Scrieciu, S. & Foxon, T. J. 2008 Achieving the G8 50% target: modelling induced and accelerated technological change using the macro-economic model E3MG. Clim. Policy 8, S30-S45. (doi:10.3763/cpol.2007.0490)
6. Bowen, A., Forster, P., Gouldson, A., Hubacek, K., Martin, R., O'Neill, D., Rpa, A. & Rydge, J. 2009a The implications of the economic slowdown for greenhouse gas emissions and targets. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy paper. Available at http://www. cccep.ac.uk/Publications/publications. aspx.
7. Bowen, A., Fankhauser, S., Stern, N. & Zenghelis, D. 2009b An outline of the case for a 'green' stimulus. Policy brief, Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, LSE. Available at http://www.cccep.ac.uk/pdf/ AnOutlineOfTheCaseForAGreenStimulus.pdf.
8. Brown, J. E., Hendry, C. N. & Harborne, P. 2007 An emerging market in fuel cells? Residential combined heat and power in four countries. Energy Policy 35, 2173-2186. (doi:10.1016/ j.enpol.2006.07.002)
9. CCC (Committee on Climate Change). 2008 Building a low-carbon economy-the UK's contribution to tackling climate change. London, UK: The Stationery Office. Available at http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/building-a-low-carbon- economy.
10. CCC. 2009 Meeting carbon budgets-the need for a step change. Progress report to Parliament, London. Available at http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/ progress-reports.
11. DECC (Department for Energy and Climate Change). 2010 Feed-in tariffs: Government's response to the summer 2009 consultation. Available at http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/consultations/elec-financial/ elec-financial.aspx.
12. Ferioli, F., Schoots, K. & van der Zwaan, B. 2009 Use and limitations of learning curves for energy technology policy: a component-learning hypothesis. Energy Policy 37, 2525-2535. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.043)
13. Foxon, T. J. 2003 Inducing innovation for a low carbon future: drivers, barriers and policies. London, UK: The Carbon Trust. Available at http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/Publications/ publicationdetail.htm?productid=CT- 2003-07&metaNoCache=1.
14. Foxon, T. J. & Pearson, P. 2007 Towards improved policy processes for promoting innovation in renewable electricity technologies in the UK. Energy Policy 35, 1539-1550. (doi:10.1016/ j.enpol.2006.04.009)
15. Foxon, T. J., Gross, R., Chase, A., Howes, J., Arnall, A. & Anderson, D. 2005 UK innovation systems for new and renewable energy technologies: drivers, barriers and systems failures. Energy Policy 33, 2123-2137. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2004.04.011) (Pubitemid 40251898)
16. Foxon, T. J., Köhler, J. & Oughton, C. 2008 Innovation for a low carbon economy: economic, institutional and management approaches. Cheltenham, UK/Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.
17. Geels, F. W. 2002 Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study. Res. Policy 31, 1257-1274. (doi:10.1016/S0048-7333(02)00062-8)
18. Gilfillan, S. C. 1935 Inventing the ship: a study of the inventions made in her history between floating log and rotorship. Chicago, IL: Follett.
19. Grubb, M. 2004 Technological innovation and climate change policy: an overview of issues and options. Keio Econ. Stud. 41, 103-132.
20. Grubb, M., Jamasb, T. & Pollitt, M. G. 2008 Delivering a low-carbon electricity system: technologies, economics and policy. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
21. HM Government. 2009 The UK low carbon transition plan: national strategy for climate and energy. London, UK: The Stationery Office.
22. HM Treasury. 2009 Building a low-carbon recovery, budget 2009, ch. 7. London, UK: The Stationery Office.
23. IEA (International Energy Agency). 2000 Experience curves for energy technology policy. Paris, France: OECD/IEA.
24. IEA. 2005 Prospects for hydrogen and fuel cells. Paris, France: OECD/IEA.
25. IEA. 2007 Energy technology essentials: fuel cells. Paris, France: OECD/IEA.
26. IEA. 2008 World energy outlook 2008. Paris, France: OECD/IEA.
27. IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007 Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
28. Jacobsson, S. & Bergek, A. 2004 Transforming the energy sector: the evolution of technological systems in renewable energy technology. Ind. Corporate Change 13, 815-849. (doi:10.1093/ icc/dth032) (Pubitemid 39412170)
29. Jamasb, T. 2007 Technical change theory and learning curves: patterns of progress in energy technologies. Energy J. 28, 45-65.
30. Jamasb, T. & Köhler, J. 2008 Learning curves for energy technologies: a critical assessment. In Delivering a low-carbon electricity system: technologies, economics and policy (eds M. Grubb, T. Jamasb & M. G. Pollitt), pp. 314-331. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
31. Krewitt, W. & Schmid, S. 2004 Fuel cell technologies and hydrogen production/distribution options. CASCADE Mints WP 1.5 Common Information Database, DLR. Available at http:// www.dlr.de/fk/Portaldata/40/Resources/ dokumente/publikationen/2005-09-02-CASCADE-D1.1-fin.pdf.
32. Maycock, P. D. 2005 Report, PV Energy Systems Inc. PV News.
33. McDonald, A. & Schrattenholzer, L. 2001 Learning rates for energy technologies. Energy Policy 29, 255-261. (doi:10.1016/S0301-4215(00)00122-1)
34. McVeigh, J., Butraw, D., Darmstadter, J. & Palmer, K. 1999 Winner, loser or innocent victim: has renewable energy performed as expected? Renewable energy policy project research report no. 7, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC.
35. Neij, L. 2008 Cost development of future technologies for power generation-a study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments. Energy Policy 36, 2200-2211. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.02.029)
36. Nemet, G. F. 2006 Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics. Energy Policy 34, 3218-3232. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol. 2005.06.020) (Pubitemid 44204087)
37. Neuhoff, K. 2005 Large-scale deployment of renewables for electricity generation. Oxford Rev. Econ. Policy 21, 88-110. (doi:10.1093/oxrep/gri005) (Pubitemid 40659671)
38. Nye, M., Whitmarsh, L. & Foxon, T. J. 2010 Socio-psychological perspectives on the active roles of domestic actors in transition to a lower carbon electricity economy. Environ. Plann. A 42, 697-714.
39. Official Journal of the European Union. 2009 Decision no. 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community's greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020. Official J. EU L140, 136-148.
40. Pacala, S. & Socolow, R. 2004 Stabilization wedges: solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technologies, Science 305, 968-972. (doi:10.1126/science.1100103) (Pubitemid 39071762)
41. Porter, M. & van der Linde, C. 1995 Green and competitive: ending the statement. Harvard Bus. Rev. 73, 120-134.
42. Rosenberg, N. 1982 Inside the black box: technology and economics. Cambridge, UK/New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
43. Sagar, A. D. & van der Zwaan, B. 2006 Technological innovation in the energy sector: R&D, deployment, and learning-by-doing. Energy Policy 34, 2601-2608. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol. 2005.04.012)
44. Schaeffer, G. et al. 2004 Learning from the sun; analysis of the use of experience curves for energy policy purposes: the case of photovoltaic power. Final report of the PHOTEX Project, ECNC- 04-035, ECN, The Netherlands.
45. Stenzel, T. & Frenzel, A. 2008 Regulating technological change-the strategic reactions of utility companies towards subsidy policies in the German, Spanish and UK electricity markets. Energy Policy 36, 2645-2657. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.03.007)
46. Stern, N. 2007 The economics of climate change: the Stern review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
47. Tsuchiya, H. & Kobayashi, O. 2004 Mass production cost of PEM fuel cell by learning curve. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 29, 985-990. (doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2003.10.011)
48. UKERC (UK Energy Research Centre). 2009 Making the transition to a secure and low carbon energy system. Synthesis report of UKERC Energy 2050 Project
49. UKERC, London. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2009 Global green new deal-a policy brief, UNEP, Nairobi. Available at http://www.unep.org/ pdf/A-Global-Green-New-Deal-Policy-Brief.pdf.
50. UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). 2009 The Copenhagen Accord. FCCC/CP/2009/L.7, 18 December 2009.
51. Unruh, G. C. 2000 Understanding carbon lock in. Energy Policy 28, 817-830. (doi:10.1016/ j.ijhydene.2003.10.011)
52. Wene, C.-O. 2008 A cybernetic perspective on technology learning. In Innovation for a low carbon economy (eds T. J. Foxon, J. Köhler & C. Oughton). Cheltenham, UK/Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.
53. Wright, T. P. 1936 Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. J. Aeronaut. Sci. 3, 122-128.