Combining system dynamics and Bayesian belief networks for socio-technical risk analysis

ISI 2010 - 2010 IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics: Public Safety and Security

Volumn , Issue , 2010, Pages 196-201

  Mohaghegh, Zahra ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^b Soteria Consultants   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN); Probabilistic Risk Analysis(PRA); Socio Technical Risk Analsyis(SoTeRiA); System Dynamics(SD)

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS; DESIGN AND OPERATIONS; DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES; DYNAMIC ASPECTS; DYNAMIC INTERACTION; EXPERT OPINION; FEED-BACK LOOP; ORGANIZATIONAL FACTORS; PREDICTIVE MODELING; PROBABILISTIC RELATIONS; PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS; SOCIOTECHNICAL; SOCIOTECHNICAL SYSTEMS; SYSTEM DYNAMICS;

DECISION MAKING; INFORMATION SCIENCE; KNOWLEDGE BASED SYSTEMS; RISK ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SAFETY FACTOR; SYSTEM THEORY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

BAYESIAN NETWORKS;

EID: 77954808078     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.1109/ISI.2010.5484736     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (15)

1. th Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, University of California, Irvine, CA, pp. 329-334.
2. Sterman, J., 2000, Business Dynamics; System Thinking and Modeling for Complex World, Mc Graw-Hill Companies
3. Rasmussen, N., 1975, "Reactor Safety Study," WASH-1400, Washington DC: US. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
4. Wang, C., 2007, Hybrid Causal Methodology for Risk Assessment, Ph.D thesis, University of Maryland, Center for Risk and Reliability.
5. Roehrig, S., 1993, "Path Analysis and Probabilistic Networks: Analogous Concepts," IEEE Transaction, Vol.3, pp. 523-532.
6. Mohaghegh, Z., 2007. On The Theoretical Foundation and Principles of Organizational Safety Risk Analysis, Ph.D thesis, University of Maryland, College Prak.
7. Mohaghegh, Z., 2009. Socio-Technical Risk Analysis, VDM Verlag, ISBN 978-3639134759.
8. Mohaghegh, Z. and Mosleh, A., 2009, "Incorporating Organizational Factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Complex Sociotechnical Systems: Principles and Theoretical Foundations", Safety Science, 47, pp.1139-1158.
9. Mosleh, A. and Golfeiz, E. B., 1999, "An approach for assessing the impact of organizational factors on risk," Center for Technology Risk Studies, University of Maryland at College Park.
10. Roelen, A. and Wever, R., 2005, "Accident scenarios for an integrated aviation safety model," NLR-CR-2005-560, NLR Amsterdam.
11. Mohaghegh, Z., Kazemi, R., and Mosleh, A., 2009, "Incorporating Organizational Factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Complex Socio-technical Systems: A Hybrid Technique Formalization", Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol.94, Issue 5, p. 1000-1018
12. Cooke, D.L., 2004, The Dynamics and Control of Operational Risk, Ph.D Thesis, The University of Calgary
13. McCabe, R., 1998, Why Airlines Succeed or Fail: A System Dynamics Synthesis, Ph.D thesis, The Claremont Graduate University
14. Kirwan, B., Gibson, H., Kennedy, R., Edmunds, J., Cooksley, G., and Umbers, I., 2004, "Nuclear Action Reliability Assessment (NARA): A Data-Based HRA Tool," The 7th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, Berlin, Germany: Springer
15. Altman, E., 1968, "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, Vol.XXIII, No.4, pp. 589-609