The effect of past changes in inter-annual temperature variability on tree distribution limits

Journal of Biogeography

Volumn 37, Issue 7, 2010, Pages 1394-1405

  Giesecke, Thomas ^a,b   Miller, Paul A ^c   Sykes, Martin T ^c   Ojala, Antti E K ^d   Seppä, Heikki ^e   Bradshaw, Richard H W ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GÖTTINGEN   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL   (United Kingdom)

^c LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^d GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF FINLAND   (Finland)

^e UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

Author keywords

Distribution limits; Fennoscandia; Inter annual variability; LPJ GUESS; Temperature; Varves; Vegetation model

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; ANNUAL VARIATION; BOREAL FOREST; CIRCULATION MODELING; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMMUNITY COMPOSITION; DECIDUOUS TREE; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS; ECOTONE; GROWTH RATE; HOLOCENE; METEOROLOGY; PARAMETERIZATION; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; REGENERATION; SPECIES OCCURRENCE; TEMPERATE FOREST; TEMPERATURE EFFECT;

FENNOSCANDIA; FINLAND;

MALVACEAE; QUERCUS ROBUR; TILIA CORDATA; ULMUS; ULMUS GLABRA;

EID: 77954772197     PISSN: 03050270     EISSN: 13652699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02296.x     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Anderson LL, Hu FS, Nelson DM, Petit RJ, Paige KN. Ice-age endurance: DNA evidence of a white spruce refugium in Alaska. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2006, 103:12447-12450.
2. Beniston M, Stephenson DB. Extreme climatic events and their evolution under changing climatic conditions. Global and Planetary Change 2004, 44:1-9.
3. Beniston M, Stephenson DB, Christensen OB, Ferro CAT, Frei C, Goyette S, Halsnaes K, Holt T, Jylha K, Koffi B, Palutikof J, Scholl R, Semmler T, Woth K. Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Climatic Change 2007, 81:71-95.
4. Betts RA. Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo. Nature 2000, 408:187-190.
5. Brubaker LB, Anderson PM, Edwards ME, Lozhkin AV. Beringia as a glacial refugium for boreal trees and shrubs: new perspectives from mapped pollen data. Journal of Biogeography 2005, 32:833-848.
6. Camarero JJ, Gutiérrez E. Pace and pattern of recent treeline dynamics: response of ecotones to climatic variability in the Spanish Pyrenees. Climatic Change 2004, 63:181-200.
7. Chen DL. A monthly circulation climatology for Sweden and its application to a winter temperature case study. International Journal of Climatology 2000, 20:1067-1076.
8. Chen DL, Hellstrom C. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the regional temperature variability in Sweden: spatial and temporal variations. Tellus Series A - Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 1999, 51:505-516.
9. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon W-T, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P. Regional climate projections. Climate change: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 847-940. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL, ed. by, pp, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
10. Craddock JM. The interannual variability of monthly mean air temperatures over the northern hemisphere. London Meteorological Office Scientific Paper 1964, 20:1-10.
11. Crucifix M, Betts RA, Cox PM. Vegetation and climate variability: a GCM modelling study. Climate Dynamics 2005, 24:457-467.
12. Domonkos P, Kysely J, Piotrowicz K, Petrovic P, Likso T. Variability of extreme temperature events in south-central Europe during the 20th century and its relationship with large-scale circulation. International Journal of Climatology 2003, 23:987-1010.
13. Fransson S. The borderland. Acta Phytogeographica Suecica 1965, 50:167-176.
14. Fries M. Limes Norrlandicus-Studier. En växtgeografisk gräsfråga historisk belyst och exemplifierad. Svensk Botanisk Tidskrift 1948, 42:51-69.
15. Giesecke T. Holocene dynamics of the southern boreal forest in Sweden. The Holocene 2005, 15:858-872.
16. Giesecke T, Hickler T, Kunkel T, Sykes MT, Bradshaw RHW. Towards an understanding of the Holocene distribution of Fagus sylvatica L. Journal of Biogeography 2007, 34:118-131.
17. Giesecke T, Bjune AE, Chiverrell RC, Seppa H, Ojala AEK, Birks HJB. Exploring Holocene continentality changes in Fennoscandia using present and past tree distributions. Quaternary Science Reviews 2008, 27:1296-1308.
18. Gladstone RM, Ross I, Valdes PJ, Abe-Ouchi A, Braconnot P, Brewer S, Kageyama M, Kitoh A, Legrande A, Marti O, Ohgaito R, Otto-Bliesner B, Peltier WR, Vettoretti G. Mid-Holocene NAO: a PMIP2 model intercomparison. Geophysical Research Letters 2005, 32. 10.1029/2005GL023596, doi
19. Guisan A, Zimmermann NE. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 2000, 135:147-186.
20. Heikkilä M, Seppä H. A 11,000 yr palaeotemperature reconstruction from the southern boreal zone in Finland. Quaternary Science Reviews 2003, 22:541-554.
21. Hicks S. When no pollen does not mean no trees. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 2006, 15:253-261.
22. Hofgaard A. Seed rain quantity and quality, 1984-1992, in a high-altitude old-growth spruce forest, northern Sweden. New Phytologist 1993a, 125:635-640.
23. Hofgaard A. Structure and regeneration patterns in a virgin Picea abies forest in northern Sweden. Journal of Vegetation Science 1993b, 4:601-608.
24. Hultén E. Atlas över Växternas Utbredning i Norden 1950, Generalstabens Litografiska Anstalts Förlag, Stockholm
25. Iversen J. Viscum, Hedera and Ilex as climatic indicators. A contribution to the study of post-glacial temperature climate. Geologiska Föreningen Förhandlingar Stockholm 1944, 66:463-483.
26. Jackson ST, Webb RS, Anderson KH, Overpeck JT, Webb T, III, Williams JW, Hansen BCS. Vegetation and environment in Eastern North America during the Last Glacial Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews 2000, 19:489-508.
27. Jenkinson AF. The frequency distribution of the annual maximum (or minimum) of meteorological elements. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 1955, 81:158-171.
28. Kageyama M, Peyron O, Pinot S, Tarasov P, Guiot J, Joussaume S, Ramstein G. The Last Glacial Maximum climate over Europe and western Siberia: a PMIP comparison between models and data. Climate Dynamics 2001, 17:23-43.
29. Katz RW, Brown BG. Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages. Climatic Change 1992, 21:289-302.
30. Klein Tank AMG, Wijngaard JB, Konnen GP. Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. International Journal of Climatology 2002, 22:1441-1453.
31. Kullman L. Cataclysmic response to recent cooling of a natural boreal pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest in northern Sweden. New Phytologist 1991, 117:351-360.
32. MacDonald GM, Ritchie JC. Modern pollen spectra from the western interior of Canada and the interpretation of late Quaternary vegetation development. New Phytologist 1986, 103:245-268.
33. Mavromatis T, Hansen JW. Interannual variability characteristics and simulated crop response of four stochastic weather generators. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2001, 109:283-296.
34. Mearns LO, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R. Effect of changes in interannual climatic variability on CERES-wheat yields: sensitivity and 2 × CO2 general circulation model studies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 1992, 62:159-189.
35. Mearns LO, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R. Mean and variance change in climate scenarios: methods, agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty. Climatic Change 1997, 35:367-396.
36. Miller PA, Giesecke T, Hickler T, Bradshaw RHW, Smith B, Seppa H, Valdes PJ, Sykes MT. Exploring climatic and biotic controls on Holocene vegetation change in Fennoscandia. Journal of Ecology 2008, 96:247-259.
37. Mitchell TD, Jones PD. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology 2005, 25:693-712.
38. Ni J, Harrison SP, Prentice IC, Kutzbach JE, Sitch S. Impact of climate variability on present and Holocene vegetation: a model-based study. Ecological Modelling 2006, 191:469-486.
39. Notaro M. Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability. Climate Dynamics 2008, 30:845-854.
40. Ojala AEK, Alenius T. 10 000 years of interannual sedimentation recorded in the Lake Nautajarvi (Finland) clastic-organic varves. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 2005, 219:285-302.
41. Ojala AEK, Alenius T, Seppa H, Giesecke T. Integrated varve and pollen-based temperature reconstruction from Finland: evidence for Holocene seasonal temperature patterns at high latitudes. The Holocene 2008, 18:529-538.
42. Peterken GF, Mountford EP. Effects of drought on beech in Lady Park Wood, an unmanaged mixed deciduous woodland. Forestry 1996, 69:125-136.
43. Prentice IC, Cramer W, Harrison SP, Leemans R, Monserud RA, Solomon AM. A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. Journal of Biogeography 1992, 19:117-134.
44. Ramstein G, Kageyama M, Guiot J, Wu H, Hély C, Krinner G, Brewer S. How cold was Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum? A synthesis of the progress achieved since the first PMIP model-data comparison. Climate of the Past 2007, 3:331-339.
45. Rimbu N, Lohmann G, Kim JH, Arz HW, Schneider R. Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation signature in Holocene sea surface temperature trends as obtained from alkenone data. Geophysical Research Letters 2003, 30. 10.1029/2002GL016570, doi
46. Schaeffer M, Selten FM, Opsteegh JD. Shifts of means are not a proxy for changes in extreme winter temperatures in climate projections. Climate Dynamics 2005, 25:51-63.
47. Schär C, Vidale PL, Luthi D, Frei C, Haberli C, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 2004, 427:332-336.
48. Smith B, Prentice IC, Sykes MT. Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space. Global Ecology and Biogeography 2001, 10:621-637.
49. Sugita S, Gaillard MJ, Broström A. Landscape openness and pollen records: a simulation approach. The Holocene 1999, 9:409-421.
50. Sykes MT, Prentice IC, Cramer W. A bioclimatic model for the potential distribution of northern European tree species under present and future climates. Journal of Biogeography 1996, 23:203-233.
51. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, de Siqueira MF, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, van Jaarsveld AS, Midgley GF, Miles L, Ortega-Huerta MA, Peterson AT, Phillips OL, Williams SE. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 2004, 427:145-148.
52. Thomas FM, Blank R, Hartmann G. Abiotic and biotic factors and their interactions as causes of oak decline in Central Europe. Forest Pathology 2002, 32:277-307.
53. Trouet V, Esper J, Graham NE, Baker A, Scourse JD, Frank DC. Persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation mode dominated the medieval climate anomaly. Science 2009, 324:78-80.
54. Wallén CC. Variability and extremes of winter temperatures in Europe 1870-1980. Archives for Meteorology Geophysics and Bioclimatology Series B - Theoretical and Applied Climatology 1986, 36:173-188.
55. Willis KJ, van Andel TH. Trees or no trees? The environments of central and eastern Europe during the Last Glaciation. Quaternary Science Reviews 2004, 23:2369-2387.
56. Willis KJ, Rudner E, Sumegi P. The full-glacial forests of central and southeastern Europe. Quaternary Research 2000, 53:203-213.
57. Willis KJ, Kleczkowski A, New M, Whittaker RJ. Testing the impact of climate variability on European plant diversity: 320 000 years of water-energy dynamics and its long-term influence on plant taxonomic richness. Ecology Letters 2007, 10:673-679.
58. Woodward FI. Climate and plant distribution 1987, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge